Yes
Market Model 19.0% 23.0%
Politics Markets
Active Markets (30)
Keir Starmer
Market Model 59.0% 54.6%
Sanae Takaichi
Market Model 1.0% 1.2%
Félix Tshisekedi
Market Model 15.0% 12.6%
Paul Kagame
Market Model 5.0% 4.1%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 51.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 6.4%
At least 50 days
Market Model 97.0% 96.5%
At least 60 days
Market Model 70.0% 67.1%
Before Apr 8, 2026
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Before Apr 15, 2026
Market Model 23.0% 16.1%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 76.0% 74.0%
Before Apr 9, 2026
Market Model 45.0% 50.0%
Todd Blanche
Market Model 33.0% 22.0%
Lee Zeldin
Market Model 51.0% 33.3%
Before May
Market Model 4.0% 1.4%
Before June
Market Model 13.0% 4.6%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 18.0%
Donald Trump
Market Model 59.0% 100.0%
Barron Trump
Market Model 44.0% 100.0%
Below 300
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
Above 800
Market Model 21.0% 17.6%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 8.4%
Clarence Thomas
Market Model 50.0% 27.0%
Samuel Alito
Market Model 70.0% 49.1%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.2%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 38.0% 15.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 7.8%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 16.3%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 14.9%
Before Jan 2027
Market Model 13.0% 6.5%
Before Jul 2026
Market Model 6.0% 2.5%
Greenland
Market Model 4.0% 18.7%
Canada
Market Model 3.0% 18.7%
$0 / No Acquisition
Market Model 78.0% 94.4%
$600 billion to $899 billion
Market Model 6.0% 0.2%
Before January 21, 2029
Market Model 35.0% 27.1%
Before 2027
Market Model 11.0% 7.8%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 2.4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 13.0% 7.9%
Tulsi Gabbard
Market Model 16.0% 13.4%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Market Model 60.0% 44.7%
Reza Pahlavi
Market Model 11.0% 9.5%
Pete Hegseth
Market Model 10.0% 9.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 49.0% 28.2%
Before August
Market Model 31.0% 16.3%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 1.6%
Judy Shelton
Market Model 5.0% 3.8%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 94.0% 86.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035? Yes refers to: Between 2025 and 2035? | 19.0% | 23.0% | Med | $800 | New |
| Which G7 leader will leave next? Top outcome: Keir Starmer | 59.0% | 54.6% | High | $33,098 | New |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? Top outcome: Félix Tshisekedi | 15.0% | 12.6% | High | $9,487 | New |
| Will Trump approve a new city on federal land? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 43.0% | 51.0% | Med | $5,239 | New |
| Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 7.0% | 6.4% | Med | $105,682 | New |
| How long will the government shutdown last? Top outcome: At least 50 days | 97.0% | 96.5% | High | $14,384,775 | New |
| When will DHS be funded again? Top outcome: Before Apr 8, 2026 | 3.0% | 1.0% | Med | $13,236,065 | New |
| When will Pam Bondi depart as Attorney General? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 76.0% | 74.0% | High | $4,405,941 | New |
| Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Top outcome: Todd Blanche | 33.0% | 22.0% | High | $602,678 | New |
| Will crypto market structure legislation become law? Top outcome: Before May | 4.0% | 1.4% | High | $800,323 | New |
| Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 18.0% | Med | $756,255 | New |
| Who will Trump pardon? Top outcome: Donald Trump | 59.0% | 100.0% | High | $224,868 | New |
| How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Top outcome: Below 300 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | $26,513 | New |
| Will Trump balance the budget? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 12.0% | 8.4% | Med | $40,327 | New |
| Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? Top outcome: Clarence Thomas | 50.0% | 27.0% | Med | $51,480 | New |
| Will Trump add a 51st state to the US? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 14.0% | 9.2% | Med | $53,434 | New |
| Will Congress override Trump's veto? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38.0% | 15.3% | High | $98,074 | New |
| Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 12.0% | 7.8% | Med | $109,977 | New |
| Will Trump resign during his term? Yes refers to: Before his term ends | 24.0% | 16.3% | Med | $166,509 | New |
| Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Yes refers to: Before his term ends | 22.0% | 14.9% | Med | $296,443 | New |
| Will the US acquire any new territory? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027 | 13.0% | 6.5% | High | $591,333 | New |
| What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? Top outcome: Greenland | 4.0% | 18.7% | High | $594,741 | New |
| How much will the US acquire Greenland for? Top outcome: $0 / No Acquisition | 78.0% | 94.4% | High | $1,023,227 | New |
| Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 21, 2029 | 35.0% | 27.1% | High | $3,752,771 | New |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 2.4% | High | $245,481 | New |
| Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Top outcome: Tulsi Gabbard | 16.0% | 13.4% | High | $1,754,507 | New |
| Who will visit Iran before July? Top outcome: Reza Pahlavi | 11.0% | 9.5% | High | $113,976 | New |
| US-Iran nuclear deal? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 49.0% | 28.2% | High | $2,053,575 | New |
| Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? Yes refers to: Mars | 10.0% | 1.6% | Med | $56,620 | New |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 5.0% | 3.8% | High | $196,269,477 | New |
