Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by May 31, 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the price of NVIDIA H200 compute to be Above $2.35 by May 31, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Blackwell GPU introduction is expected to exert downward pressure on H200 compute prices.
- Strong AI demand and rising hardware costs likely provide upward price pressure.
- Blackwell GPUs entered volume production in Q1 2026, likely pressuring H200 prices.
- DRAM price hikes directly drive HGX H200 server cost increases.
- Previous-generation flagship GPUs historically see 15% price cuts after new launches.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.50 | 85.0% | 98.5% | NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU introduction is expected to exert downward pressure on H200 compute prices. |
| Above $2.74 | 72.0% | 68.0% | NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU introduction is expected to exert downward pressure on H200 compute prices. |
| Above $2.65 | 74.0% | 98.2% | NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU introduction is expected to exert downward pressure on H200 compute prices. |
| Above $2.60 | 74.0% | 98.3% | NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU introduction is expected to exert downward pressure on H200 compute prices. |
| Above $2.70 | 74.0% | 70.6% | NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU introduction is expected to exert downward pressure on H200 compute prices. |
Current Context
The NVIDIA H200 compute market shows varied pricing for purchase and cloud rental. As of May 2026, the direct purchase price for a single NVIDIA H200 SXM5 GPU typically ranges from $32,000 to $40,000. A full 8-GPU HGX H200 server is priced between $320,000 and $420,000 [^][^][^]. Cloud rental options for the NVIDIA H200 in May 2026 present a broad spectrum, generally falling between $2.50 and $10.60 per GPU-hour. This hourly rate depends on factors such as the cloud provider, the level of commitment, and regional availability [^][^][^][^].
Hardware costs are experiencing significant volatility due to market demand and geopolitical factors. In 2026, a massive surge in AI data-center demand has led to a substantial rise in DRAM contract prices, thereby impacting the overall cost of server infrastructure [^][^][^]. Concurrently, as of mid-May 2026, the U.S. government had authorized approximately 10 Chinese companies to purchase H200 chips. However, by May 21, 2026, no commercial shipments had been completed, as Chinese firms have shown hesitation following guidance from Beijing [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a completely static price trend since its inception. The probability of a "YES" outcome opened at 99.0% and has remained at that level without any fluctuation across all recorded data points. The chart shows a perfectly sideways movement, indicating an unwavering consensus among market participants from the start. Given this lack of price action, there have been no significant spikes or drops to analyze. The provided context, detailing the established purchase and rental prices for NVIDIA H200 compute, appears to fully support the market's initial and unchanging high probability, leaving no room for new information to shift the price.
The trading volume pattern provides the most critical insight into this market's dynamics. With a total traded volume of zero contracts, it is clear that no trading has occurred. This suggests absolute market conviction in the initial 99.0% price. There are no sellers willing to bet against the high probability of a "YES" outcome, and no new buyers are needed to sustain the price. In this inactive market, traditional support and resistance levels have not been established through trading. The 99.0% level represents a firm consensus point rather than a technical barrier forged by price discovery. The market sentiment is unambiguously strong and confident in a "YES" resolution, with the absence of any trading activity indicating a complete lack of dissenting opinion.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour value, as reported by Ornn on May 31, 2026, is above $2.74. It resolves to No if the value is $2.74 or below, or if no data is available by the market's May 31, 2026, close. Settlement uses the USD index, rounds values to two decimal places, and ignores any data revisions made after expiration, with payout projected for June 1, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.36 | $0.99 | $0.24 | 99% |
| Above $2.37 | $0.99 | $0.24 | 99% |
| Above $2.38 | $0.99 | $0.24 | 99% |
| Above $2.39 | $0.99 | $0.24 | 99% |
| Above $2.40 | $0.99 | $0.24 | 99% |
| Above $2.41 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.42 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.43 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.44 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.45 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.46 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.47 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.48 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.49 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.52 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.53 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.54 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.55 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.56 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.57 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.59 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.61 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.62 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.63 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.64 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.67 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.68 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.69 | $0.99 | $0.39 | 99% |
| Above $2.50 | $0.99 | $0.15 | 85% |
| Above $2.60 | $0.98 | $0.42 | 74% |
| Above $2.65 | $0.98 | $0.42 | 74% |
| Above $2.66 | $0.98 | $0.41 | 74% |
| Above $2.70 | $0.98 | $0.41 | 74% |
| Above $2.71 | $0.98 | $0.41 | 74% |
| Above $2.73 | $0.97 | $0.42 | 74% |
| Above $2.74 | $0.97 | $0.29 | 72% |
| Above $2.58 | $0.98 | $0.35 | 68% |
| Above $2.51 | $0.98 | $0.29 | 66% |
| Above $2.72 | $0.99 | $0.38 | 62% |
| Above $2.35 | $0.99 | $0.24 | 99% |
Market Discussion
The NVIDIA H200 GPU is currently available for purchase between $30,000 and $40,000, while cloud rental rates range from $2.50 to $10.60 per GPU-hour [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Future pricing by May 31, 2026, may be impacted by a nearly 20% increase in HBM3e component costs for 2026 deliveries and the introduction of Blackwell GPUs in late 2025 and early 2026 [^][^]. Despite expectations for NVIDIA to maintain strong pricing power due to sustained demand, initial H200 prices could gradually decrease as supply catches up [^].
4. How does the NVIDIA H200's price-performance compare to its predecessor, the H100, and AMD's Instinct MI300X for Q1 2026 AI workloads?
| NVIDIA H200 HBM3e Memory | 141GB [^][^] |
|---|---|
| NVIDIA H200 Memory Bandwidth | 4.8 TB/s [^][^] |
| AMD MI300X Cloud Rental Price vs H200 | 20-30% lower [^] |
The NVIDIA H200 significantly outperforms the H100 for Q1 2026 AI inference. This advantage stems from its enhanced memory specifications, featuring 141GB HBM3e and a 4.8 TB/s memory bandwidth [^][^]. This represents a 43% increase over the H100's 80GB HBM3 and 3.35 TB/s bandwidth [^][^]. Such elevated bandwidth is critical for large model inference, where memory limitations frequently bottleneck performance, making the H200 a superior option for these demanding tasks [^][^].
The H200 competes with AMD's MI300X, which offers more memory. The MI300X provides a greater memory capacity of 192GB HBM3 and 5.3 TB/s bandwidth, often available at a 20-30% lower cloud rental price [^][^]. However, NVIDIA maintains a performance edge in AI training workloads and benefits from a more established software ecosystem [^]. As of May 2026, NVIDIA H200 cloud rental prices range from approximately $3.72 to over $10.00 per GPU hour [^][^]. Individual unit purchase prices for the H200 fall between $30,000 and $45,000 [^][^].
5. What are the prevailing Q1 2026 on-demand rental rates for the NVIDIA H200 across major cloud providers like AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure?
| AWS H200 GPU-hour price | $4.98/GPU-hour (May 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Azure H200 GPU-hour price | $10.60/GPU-hour (May 2026) [^][^] |
| Predicted H200 hourly rental price | $3.70 (by May 31, 2026) [^] |
Specific Q1 2026 NVIDIA H200 on-demand rates are not currently provided. However, comparisons for May 2026 illustrate differing prices across major cloud providers [^][^][^]. AWS p5e.48xlarge instances, featuring eight H200 GPUs, are listed at approximately $4.98 per GPU-hour. This rate is derived from a total instance cost of $39.84 per hour, with a minimum one-day duration [^][^]. Azure's Standard ND96isr H200 v5 instances, also equipped with eight H200 GPUs, show a higher rate of $10.60 per GPU-hour, based on an $84.80 per hour instance cost [^][^].
Google Cloud offers H200 GPU instances primarily on a spot-only basis. On-demand pricing for the H200 was not published in the available comparisons [^][^][^]. Looking ahead, a prediction market tracker anticipates H200 hourly rental prices to reach $3.70 by May 31, 2026. This forecast holds a 100% implied probability, following a repricing surge observed on April 24 [^].
6. How might shifts in U.S. export controls on AI chips to China during H1 2026 affect the global supply and rental price of the H200?
| US H200 Export Policy Shift | Case-by-case license regime for H200 chips to China in H1 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| H200 Shipments to China | Minimal or non-existent as of mid-May 2026 [^][^][^] |
| H200 On-Demand Rental Rates | ~$2.50 to ~$13.78 per GPU-hour in April/May 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
U.S. export controls on H200 chips shifted, but shipments remained minimal. In the first half of 2026, the U.S. government moved to a case-by-case export license regime for H200 chips to China, formally allowing exports to several major Chinese firms under a revenue-sharing framework [^][^][^]. Despite this policy adjustment, physical shipments of H200s to China were minimal or non-existent as of mid-May 2026 [^][^][^]. This situation introduces uncertainty regarding the long-term supply and price outlook for H200s, as potential exports to China could divert inventory from U.S. customers [^][^][^].
H200 rental prices rose, influenced by demand and market sentiment. H200 rental rates experienced significant volatility, with median on-demand rates trending upward in early 2026 due to sustained high demand for inference tasks [^][^][^][^][^]. By April and May 2026, rates typically ranged from approximately $2.50 to $13.78 per GPU-hour, reflecting market sentiment that anticipated sustained higher price floors [^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets tracking H200 compute prices consistently indicated upward pressure, signaling market confidence in restricted supply and robust demand for Hopper-class compute [^][^][^][^].
7. Which public filings or industry reports from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 provide the best data on H200 production volumes and data center adoption rates?
| NVIDIA Data Center Revenue | $62.3B for quarter ended Jan 25, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Blackwell GB200 NVL72 Shipments Q1 2026 | 2,847 units [^] |
| Blackwell GB200 NVL72 Shipments Q4 2025 | 891 units [^] |
Specific H200 production and adoption rates remain largely unavailable. Detailed H200 production volumes or H200-specific data center adoption rates for Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 are not explicitly provided in public filings or industry reports. NVIDIA's FY2026 Q4 earnings release, which concluded on January 25, 2026, reported Data Center revenue of $62.3 billion [^][^][^]. This release also indicated that the Q1 FY2027 outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China [^][^][^]. Despite these financial details, the reports do not specify H200 production volumes or H200-specific data center adoption rates.
Proxy data offers some insights, but not H200-specific volumes. A May 2026 industry write-up, which referenced CoWoS-L packaging supply-chain data as a proxy for AI datacenter deployments, claimed a ramp in shipments for Blackwell GB200 NVL72 systems [^]. According to this analysis, shipments increased from 891 units in Q4 2025 to 2,847 units in Q1 2026 [^]. It is important to acknowledge that this information pertains to GB200 systems and is not specific to H200 production volumes [^]. Additionally, publicly available market listings for H200 compute, such as those on Kalshi, do not offer audited unit volumes for the H200 [^].
8. How have rising DRAM prices and other data center hardware costs in late 2025 and early 2026 influenced system integrators' pricing for full HGX H200 servers?
| Server DRAM Price Increase Q4 2025 | +30% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Server DRAM Price Increase Early 2026 | +20% [^][^] |
| 8-GPU HGX H200 Server Estimated Price | $320,000–$420,000 [^] |
DRAM price hikes directly drive HGX H200 server cost increases. Server DRAM pricing and server module costs are expected to directly influence system integrators' pricing for full HGX H200 servers in late 2025 and early 2026 [^][^]. Server DRAM pricing is projected to increase by approximately 30% in Q4 2025, followed by an additional 20% in early 2026 [^][^]. Analysis suggests that server module costs could trend toward doubling by late 2026 compared to early 2025, significantly contributing to integrator quote costs for HGX H200 systems, despite GPUs remaining the primary cost driver [^][^].
Elevated memory prices sustain high overall HGX H200 server costs. A 2026 pricing guide estimates an 8-GPU HGX H200 server to cost roughly $320,000–$420,000 [^]. This indicates that system integrator and OEM all-in pricing will likely remain high when memory prices are structurally elevated [^]. The Kalshi market "Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by end of month?" utilizes Ornnai H200 Index values for resolution, with specific compute price thresholds defined for any day between market creation and May 31, 2026 [^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The introduction of NVIDIA's next-generation Blackwell GPUs (B200/B300), which launched in late 2025 and entered volume production in Q1 2026, is a significant factor expected to exert downward pressure on H200 prices throughout 2026 [^] [^] . Historically, previous-generation flagship GPUs see approximately 15% list-price cuts within six months of a new generation's launch [^]. As Blackwell GPUs ship, H200 rates are expected to soften, with spot/preemptible prices likely to slide first [^]. Additionally, increased competition from alternatives like AMD's MI325X and Intel's Gaudi 3 could influence H200 sales strategy and pricing adjustments [^].
Despite the potential for price softening, persistent supply bottlenecks for HBM and CoWoS are expected to continue through at least Q3 2026, which could maintain higher prices [^] . Hyperscalers have also placed multi-billion-dollar forward orders for newer Blackwell GPUs, potentially consuming available capacity and indirectly affecting H200 availability and pricing [^]. Global AI spending is projected to reach $2.52 trillion in 2026, with AI infrastructure alone adding $401 billion in new spending, driven by the increasing complexity of AI models, particularly large language models, which continues to drive demand for high-memory GPUs like the H200 [^][^][^][^][^]. The H200's substantial 141GB of HBM3e VRAM and 4.8 TB/s bandwidth make it highly effective for memory-intensive tasks, such as running large language models, offering a performance advantage over its predecessor [^][^][^][^].
New HBM capacity from Samsung and Micron is expected online in late 2026, which could ease on-demand price premiums for H200 and B200 [^] . A prediction market on Kalshi, open until May 31, 2026, indicates a 74% probability that the H200 compute price per hour will be above $2.65 on that date, and a 99% probability it will be above $2.64 [^]. NVIDIA's first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings report is scheduled for May 20, 2026, which could influence market sentiment and stock prices [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: June 01, 2026
- Expiration: June 08, 2026
- Closes: June 01, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The introduction of NVIDIA's next-generation Blackwell GPUs (B200/B300), which launched in late 2025 and entered volume production in Q1 2026, is a significant factor expected to exert downward pressure on H200 prices throughout 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Historically, previous-generation flagship GPUs see approximately 15% list-price cuts within six months of a new generation's launch [^] .
- Trigger: As Blackwell GPUs ship, H200 rates are expected to soften, with spot/preemptible prices likely to slide first [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, increased competition from alternatives like AMD's MI325X and Intel's Gaudi 3 could influence H200 sales strategy and pricing adjustments [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 20 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXH200MON-26APR30-2.740: YES (May 01, 2026)
- KXH200MON-26APR30-2.730: YES (May 01, 2026)
- KXH200MON-26APR30-2.720: YES (May 01, 2026)
- KXH200MON-26APR30-2.710: YES (May 01, 2026)
- KXH200MON-26APR30-2.700: YES (May 01, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
