OpenAI
Market Model 47.0% 37.8%
xAI
Market Model 16.0% 5.1%
AI Markets
Active Markets (2)
Before Jun 15, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 3.0% 1.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 47.0% | 37.8% | Med | $257,936.56 | Refresh |
| When will Anthropic release Mythos? Top outcome: Before Jun 15, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.6% | High | $1,111,054.43 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (4)
At least 90%
Market Model 7.0% 8.6%
At least 85%
Market Model 6.0% 8.6%
At least 1550 score
Market Model 40.0% 56.0%
At least 1575 score
Market Model 25.0% 31.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Top outcome: At least 90% | 7.0% | 8.6% | High | $2,271.01 | |
| AI capability growth before July? Top outcome: At least 1550 score | 40.0% | 56.0% | Med | $70,699 | |
| — | — | High | $2,193,012 | ||
| — | — | Med | $264,092 |
