At least 90%
Market Model 7.0% 8.6%
At least 85%
Market Model 6.0% 8.6%
AI Markets
Active Markets (3)
xAI
Market Model 54.0% 53.5%
OpenAI
Market Model 61.0% 60.0%
At least 1550 score
Market Model 40.0% 56.0%
At least 1575 score
Market Model 25.0% 31.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? Top outcome: At least 90% | 7.0% | 8.6% | High | $2,271.01 | Refresh |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: xAI | 54.0% | 53.5% | Med | $842,732 | Refresh |
| AI capability growth before July? Top outcome: At least 1550 score | 40.0% | 56.0% | Med | $70,699 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (2)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $2,193,012 | ||
| — | — | Med | $264,092 |
