Cut >25bps
Market Model 6.0% 5.7%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 51.0% 51.0%
Fed Markets
Active Markets (9)
Before 2027
Market Model 11.0% 12.5%
Before July 2026
Market Model 4.0% 2.5%
1 cuts
Market Model 14.0% 12.3%
0 cuts
Market Model 82.0% 80.3%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 1.0% 75.0%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 99.0% 98.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 4.0% 3.4%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 97.0% 94.1%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 26.5%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 13.0% 13.2%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 88.0% 83.3%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 17.5%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 14.0% 11.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 25.0% 21.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Cut >25bps | 6.0% | 5.7% | Med | $82,285 | Ask |
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 12.5% | Med | $339,938 | Ask |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 1 cuts | 14.0% | 12.3% | Med | $70,398 | Ask |
| Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.75% | 1.0% | 75.0% | Med | $244,870 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Mar 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 4.0% | 3.4% | Med | $13,258,606 | Ask |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 27.0% | 26.5% | Med | $133,485 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 13.0% | 13.2% | Med | $228,029 | Ask |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 19.0% | 17.5% | Med | $73,361 | Ask |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 14.0% | 11.0% | Med | $1,259,704 | Ask |
Expired Markets (1)
Maintain current rate
Market Model 100.0% 77.8%
Cut 1-10 basis points
Market Model 50.0% 19.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will the People's Bank of China do at the February 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Maintain current rate | 100.0% | 77.8% | Med | $55,308 | Ask |
