Cut >25bps
Market Model 12.0% 7.8%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 13.0% 10.1%
Fed Markets
Active Markets (7)
Before 2027
Market Model 15.0% 2.5%
Before July 2026
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 15.0% 4.5%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 86.0% 92.0%
1 cuts
Market Model 12.0% 11.1%
0 cuts
Market Model 77.0% 80.9%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 16.0% 11.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 23.0% 21.5%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 18.5%
Yes
Market Model 23.0% 27.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Cut >25bps | 12.0% | 7.8% | High | $377,365 | New |
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 15.0% | 2.5% | Med | $1,203,085 | New |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 15.0% | 4.5% | Med | $201,833 | New |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 1 cuts | 12.0% | 11.1% | Med | $67,451 | New |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 16.0% | 11.0% | Med | $1,258,867 | New |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 27.0% | 18.5% | Med | $72,743 | New |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 23.0% | 27.0% | Med | $132,837 | New |
