Above 3.75%
Market Model 3% 2%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 99% 94.7%
Active Markets (6)
Cut 25bps
Market Model 14% 9.4%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 90% 87.5%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 78% 77.1%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 19% 16.9%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 9% 13.7%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 24% 21.7%
Yes
Market Model 24% 23.5%
Yes
Market Model 18% 17%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.75% | 3% | 2% | Med | $151,729 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Mar 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 14% | 9.4% | High | $3,481,492 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Fed maintains rate | 78% | 77.1% | Med | $61,756 | Ask |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 9% | 13.7% | Med | $723,442 | Ask |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 24% | 23.5% | Med | $91,008 | Ask |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18% | 17% | Med | $53,347 | Ask |
