Yes
Market Model 22.0% 20.5%
Economics Markets
Active Markets (45)
Exactly 3.3%
Market Model 24.0% 4.3%
Exactly 3.4%
Market Model 21.0% 3.3%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 20.5%
Above 0.0%
Market Model 99.0% 96.0%
Above 0.1%
Market Model 79.0% 76.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 13.0% 10.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 26.0% 22.0%
Exactly -0.1%
Market Model 7.0% 6.5%
Exactly -0.2%
Market Model 9.0% 2.5%
Exactly 2.8%
Market Model 46.0% 6.2%
Exactly 2.9%
Market Model 51.0% 6.2%
Cut >25bps
Market Model 6.0% 5.7%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 51.0% 51.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 11.0% 12.5%
Before July 2026
Market Model 4.0% 2.5%
Q2 2025
Market Model 1.0% 2.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 6.0% 8.0%
1 cuts
Market Model 14.0% 12.3%
0 cuts
Market Model 82.0% 80.3%
United Kingdom
Market Model 38.0% 36.5%
China
Market Model 16.0% 10.5%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 1.0% 75.0%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 99.0% 98.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 4.0% 3.4%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 97.0% 94.1%
At least 50 GWdc
Market Model 24.0% 28.5%
At least 40 GWdc
Market Model 97.0% 96.5%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 26.5%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 21.5%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 13.0% 13.2%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 88.0% 83.3%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 17.5%
Exactly -0.2%
Market Model 7.0% 4.5%
Exactly -0.1%
Market Model 9.0% 6.0%
Yes
Market Model 72.0% 72.5%
More than $1.2 trillion
Market Model 50.0% 48.5%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 79.0% 77.5%
Above 5%
Market Model 32.0% 31.5%
Above 6%
Market Model 15.0% 15.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 9.0% 8.5%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 8.0% 6.0%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 14.0% 11.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 25.0% 21.5%
Above 2.95
Market Model 1.0% 86.0%
Above 2.97
Market Model 98.0% 73.0%
Above 0
Market Model 94.0% 93.5%
Above 90,000
Market Model 29.0% 23.5%
Above 0.2%
Market Model 56.0% 51.5%
Above 0.3%
Market Model 14.0% 11.5%
Above 2.3%
Market Model 80.0% 82.5%
Above 2.4%
Market Model 40.0% 39.0%
Exactly 3.3%
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 15.0% 14.9%
More than 130% of GDP
Market Model 3.0% 5.5%
More than 150% of GDP
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Exactly 0.6%
Market Model 7.0% 12.2%
Exactly 0.2%
Market Model 24.0% 11.8%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Exactly 3.2%
Market Model 3.0% 2.3%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 22.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 69.0% 72.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 86.0% 85.0%
Elon Musk
Market Model 89.0% 86.8%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 5.0% 3.9%
Yes
Market Model 58.0% 59.0%
$40 trillion
Market Model 99.0% 0.0%
$50 trillion
Market Model 56.0% 0.0%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 35.0% 28.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 18.0% 10.0%
At least 1 billion
Market Model 2.0% 5.0%
At least 25 billion
Market Model 1.0% 4.5%
At least $1 trillion
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
At least $500 billion
Market Model 17.0% 18.0%
Above 4.3%
Market Model 69.0% 89.0%
Above 4.4%
Market Model 41.0% 38.5%
Exactly 4.4%
Market Model 36.0% 32.4%
Exactly 4.5%
Market Model 28.0% 25.1%
Above 90,000
Market Model 31.0% 30.5%
Above 50,000
Market Model 59.0% 58.5%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 99.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22.0% | 20.5% | Med | $56,585 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 3.3% | 24.0% | 4.3% | Med | $295,967 | Ask |
| Will unemployment in Brazil be below 5.4% in Q1 2026? Yes refers to: Below 5.4% | 21.0% | 20.5% | Med | $155,748 | Ask |
| How much will core PCE increase in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Above 0.0% | 99.0% | 96.0% | Med | $165,663 | Ask |
| Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 13.0% | 10.5% | Med | $40,557 | Ask |
| CPI core month-over-month in May 2026? Top outcome: Exactly -0.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | Med | $420,214 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in May 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.8% | 46.0% | 6.2% | Med | $552,875 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Cut >25bps | 6.0% | 5.7% | Med | $82,285 | Ask |
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 12.5% | Med | $339,938 | Ask |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q2 2025 | 1.0% | 2.0% | Med | $428,943 | Ask |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 1 cuts | 14.0% | 12.3% | Med | $70,398 | Ask |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 38.0% | 36.5% | Med | $90,731 | Ask |
| Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.75% | 1.0% | 75.0% | Med | $244,870 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Mar 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 4.0% | 3.4% | Med | $13,258,606 | Ask |
| How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025? Top outcome: At least 50 GWdc | 24.0% | 28.5% | Med | $89,348 | Ask |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 27.0% | 26.5% | Med | $133,485 | Ask |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 25.0% | 21.5% | Med | $58,868 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 13.0% | 13.2% | Med | $228,029 | Ask |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 19.0% | 17.5% | Med | $73,361 | Ask |
| CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly -0.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% | Med | $593,687 | Ask |
| Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 72.0% | 72.5% | Med | $69,030 | Ask |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $1.2 trillion | 50.0% | 48.5% | Med | $45,396 | Ask |
| How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5% | 32.0% | 31.5% | Med | $293,588 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 9.0% | 8.5% | Med | $144,470 | Ask |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 14.0% | 11.0% | Med | $1,259,704 | Ask |
| Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Above 2.95 | 1.0% | 86.0% | Med | $506,969 | Ask |
| Jobs numbers in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Above 0 | 94.0% | 93.5% | Med | $93,099 | Ask |
| CPI in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Above 0.2% | 56.0% | 51.5% | Med | $69,805 | Ask |
| Inflation in Feb 2026? (CPI YoY) Top outcome: Above 2.3% | 80.0% | 82.5% | Med | $151,048 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $110,908 | Ask |
| How much will US debt increase in 2025? Top outcome: More than 130% of GDP | 3.0% | 5.5% | Med | $247,924 | Ask |
| CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0.6% | 7.0% | 12.2% | Med | $200,862 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $1,018,640 | Ask |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 22.0% | 22.5% | Med | $387,218 | Ask |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 69.0% | 72.0% | Med | $270,083 | Ask |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 89.0% | 86.8% | Med | $145,298 | Ask |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 58.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,862 | Ask |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 99.0% | 0.0% | Med | $60,597 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 35.0% | 28.0% | Med | $61,214 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? Top outcome: At least 1 billion | 2.0% | 5.0% | Med | $11,658,168 | Ask |
| How much will the government increase spending in 2025? Top outcome: At least $1 trillion | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $365,355 | Ask |
| Unemployment in January 2026? Top outcome: Above 4.3% | 69.0% | 89.0% | Med | $474,278 | Ask |
| Unemployment rate in Jan 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 4.4% | 36.0% | 32.4% | Med | $80,293 | Ask |
| Jobs numbers in Jan 2026? Top outcome: Above 90,000 | 31.0% | 30.5% | Med | $222,024 | Ask |
| More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024? Yes refers to: Up in 2025 | 1.0% | 99.0% | Med | $461,265 | Ask |
Expired Markets (5)
Above $2.979
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Above $2.959
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Maintain current rate
Market Model 1.0% 77.8%
Cut 1-10 basis points
Market Model 50.0% 19.8%
2.6 to 3.0
Market Model 4.0% 3.3%
3.1 to 3.5
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Above 3.5%
Market Model 17.0% 16.5%
Above 3.0%
Market Model 36.0% 35.5%
Above $2.960
Market Model 3.0% 5.0%
Above $2.932
Market Model 49.0% 90.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US gas prices this week Top outcome: Above $2.979 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $461,848 | Ask |
| What will the People's Bank of China do at the February 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Maintain current rate | 1.0% | 77.8% | Med | $55,308 | Ask |
| GDP growth in 2025? Top outcome: 2.6 to 3.0 | 4.0% | 3.3% | Med | $2,593,605 | Ask |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2025? Top outcome: Above 3.5% | 17.0% | 16.5% | Med | $3,417,113 | Ask |
| US Gas prices up this week? Top outcome: Above $2.960 | 3.0% | 5.0% | Med | $111,120 | Ask |
