Above 3.75%
Market Model 3% 2%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 99% 94.7%
Active Markets (28)
Above 4.3%
Market Model 69% 89%
Above 4.4%
Market Model 41% 38.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 14% 0%
Before 2028
Market Model 24% 22.5%
Above 3.5%
Market Model 47% 45.5%
Above 1.0%
Market Model 1% 1%
Exactly 4.4%
Market Model 36% 32.4%
Exactly 4.5%
Market Model 28% 25.1%
Above 90,000
Market Model 31% 30.5%
Above 50,000
Market Model 59% 58.5%
Yes
Market Model 1% 99%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 14% 9.4%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 90% 87.5%
At least 1 billion
Market Model 5% 3.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 2% 0%
At least 50 GWdc
Market Model 28% 27%
At least 40 GWdc
Market Model 93% 90.5%
At least $500 billion
Market Model 28% 0.7%
At least $1 trillion
Market Model 4% 0.1%
More than 130% of GDP
Market Model 7% 4.5%
More than 140% of GDP
Market Model 4% 0%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 78% 77.1%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 19% 16.9%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 9% 13.7%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 24% 21.7%
United Kingdom
Market Model 47% 0.3%
China
Market Model 12% 0.2%
Yes
Market Model 24% 23.5%
Yes
Market Model 18% 17%
Above 5%
Market Model 31% 31.5%
Above 6%
Market Model 15% 0.4%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 11% 0%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 9% 0%
Yes
Market Model 20% 18.5%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 3% 1.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 59% 55.5%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 18% 33%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 55% 0.8%
$40 trillion
Market Model 99% 1%
$50 trillion
Market Model 55% 52.5%
Yes
Market Model 65% 0.9%
Before 2027
Market Model 79% 1%
Before 2028
Market Model 88% 86.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 30% 0.4%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 16% 13.5%
Elon Musk
Market Model 87% 80.3%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 5% 4.2%
Yes
Market Model 22% 20%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.75% | 3% | 2% | Med | $151,729 | Ask |
| Unemployment in January 2026? Top outcome: Above 4.3% | 69% | 89% | Med | $474,278 | Ask |
| Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 14% | 0% | Med | $36,467 | Ask |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2025? Top outcome: Above 3.5% | 47% | 45.5% | Med | $2,163,835 | Ask |
| Unemployment rate in Jan 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 4.4% | 36% | 32.4% | Med | $80,293 | Ask |
| Jobs numbers in Jan 2026? Top outcome: Above 90,000 | 31% | 30.5% | Med | $222,024 | Ask |
| More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024? Yes refers to: Up in 2025 | 1% | 99% | Med | $461,265 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Mar 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 14% | 9.4% | High | $3,481,492 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? Top outcome: At least 1 billion | 5% | 3.5% | Med | $8,773,717 | Ask |
| How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025? Top outcome: At least 50 GWdc | 28% | 27% | Med | $62,074 | Ask |
| How much will the government increase spending in 2025? Top outcome: At least $500 billion | 28% | 0.7% | Med | $282,094 | Ask |
| How much will US debt increase in 2025? Top outcome: More than 130% of GDP | 7% | 4.5% | Med | $143,617 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Fed maintains rate | 78% | 77.1% | Med | $61,756 | Ask |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 9% | 13.7% | Med | $723,442 | Ask |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 47% | 0.3% | Med | $85,686 | Ask |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 24% | 23.5% | Med | $91,008 | Ask |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18% | 17% | Med | $53,347 | Ask |
| How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5% | 31% | 31.5% | Med | $156,931 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 11% | 0% | Med | $137,919 | Ask |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 20% | 18.5% | Med | $288,888 | Ask |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 3% | 1.5% | Med | $77,291 | Ask |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 18% | 33% | Med | $368,231 | Ask |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 99% | 1% | Med | $59,438 | Ask |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 65% | 0.9% | Med | $132,244 | Ask |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 79% | 1% | Med | $240,769 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 30% | 0.4% | Med | $59,048 | Ask |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 87% | 80.3% | Med | $122,211 | Ask |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22% | 20% | Med | $52,307 | Ask |
