Above 160
Market Model 56.0% 56.0%
Above 190
Market Model 28.0% 28.0%
Companies Markets
Active Markets (25)
350000 or more
Market Model 55.0% 30.0%
340000 or more
Market Model 80.0% 35.0%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 54.0% 68.0%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 8.5%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 63.0% 65.0%
Citigroup
Market Model 39.0% 40.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 9.0% 10.0%
Palantir
Market Model 19.0% 15.5%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 21.5%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 16.0% 85.0%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 3.0% 15.0%
At least $900
Market Model 29.0% 15.0%
At least $800
Market Model 61.0% 30.0%
Citigroup
Market Model 87.0% 86.5%
Bank of America
Market Model 87.0% 90.0%
Before Jun 30, 2027
Market Model 14.0% 83.0%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 11.0% 79.0%
Paramount
Market Model 81.0% 74.0%
Netflix
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 37.0% 95.0%
Before October
Market Model 35.0% 94.0%
OpenAI
Market Model 14.0% 16.0%
Meta
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 5.0% 75.0%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 22.0% 78.0%
Yes
Market Model 80.0% 83.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 6.3%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 4.5%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 38.0% 43.5%
Disney
Market Model 13.0% 28.0%
Netflix
Market Model 17.0% 24.0%
SpaceX
Market Model 92.0% 80.0%
Databricks
Market Model 23.0% 19.0%
Before July
Market Model 5.0% 6.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 26.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 32.0% 20.0%
Before July
Market Model 8.0% 8.0%
above 870 million
Market Model 97.0% 99.5%
above 850 million
Market Model 99.0% 99.5%
Before April
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
Before May
Market Model 68.0% 50.0%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 22.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 56.0% | 56.0% | Med | $90,305 | New |
| Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Top outcome: 350000 or more | 55.0% | 30.0% | Med | $442,714 | New |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $116,636 | New |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 11.0% | 8.5% | Med | $76,790 | New |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Goldman Sachs | 63.0% | 65.0% | Med | $57,302 | New |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027? Top outcome: Anthropic | 9.0% | 10.0% | Med | $248,806 | New |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 21.0% | 21.5% | Med | $711,678 | New |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 16.0% | 85.0% | Med | $58,871 | New |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 29.0% | 15.0% | Med | $96,385 | New |
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Citigroup | 87.0% | 86.5% | Med | $647,231 | New |
| When will Starlink officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 30, 2027 | 14.0% | 83.0% | Med | $112,820 | New |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 81.0% | 74.0% | Med | $2,631,225 | New |
| When will Apple release the iPhone 18? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 37.0% | 95.0% | Med | $153,528 | New |
| Who will acquire Pinterest this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 14.0% | 16.0% | Med | $66,300 | New |
| When will Discord officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 5.0% | 75.0% | Med | $58,063 | New |
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 80.0% | 83.5% | Med | $20,385 | New |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 9.0% | 6.3% | Med | $52,315 | New |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 4.5% | Med | $492,938 | New |
| 13.0% | 28.0% | Med | $56,503 | New | |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year? Top outcome: SpaceX | 92.0% | 80.0% | Med | $681,424 | New |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Top outcome: Before July | 5.0% | 6.5% | Med | $12,539 | New |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 32.0% | 20.0% | Med | $88,753 | New |
| DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Top outcome: above 870 million | 97.0% | 99.5% | Med | $67,904 | New |
| SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Top outcome: Before April | 7.0% | 2.0% | Med | $309,200 | New |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 22.5% | Med | $213,169 | New |
