Above 14
Market Model 4.0% 3.0%
Above 13
Market Model 13.0% 10.2%
Companies Markets
Active Markets (30)
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 5.5%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 15.0% 13.4%
Citigroup
Market Model 37.0% 29.0%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 34.0% 29.0%
Anduril
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Anthropic
Market Model 9.0% 20.1%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 12.0% 7.9%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 5.0% 5.9%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 20.0% 13.4%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 35.0% 24.0%
Before May
Market Model 83.0% 65.4%
Before June
Market Model 94.0% 85.8%
Disney
Market Model 8.0% 1.9%
Netflix
Market Model 18.0% 8.8%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 14.1%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.1%
above 1000
Market Model 45.0% 39.1%
above 5000
Market Model 19.0% 16.8%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 1.1%
Above 160
Market Model 56.0% 56.0%
Above 190
Market Model 28.0% 28.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 54.0% 68.0%
Before Dec 1, 2026
Market Model 50.0% 65.0%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 21.5%
At least $900
Market Model 29.0% 15.0%
At least $800
Market Model 61.0% 30.0%
Citigroup
Market Model 87.0% 86.5%
Bank of America
Market Model 87.0% 90.0%
Before Jun 30, 2027
Market Model 14.0% 83.0%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 11.0% 79.0%
Paramount
Market Model 81.0% 74.0%
Netflix
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 37.0% 95.0%
Before October
Market Model 35.0% 94.0%
OpenAI
Market Model 14.0% 16.0%
Meta
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 22.0% 78.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 22.0% 86.0%
Yes
Market Model 80.0% 83.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 6.3%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 38.0% 43.5%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 84.0% 65.0%
SpaceX
Market Model 92.0% 80.0%
Databricks
Market Model 23.0% 19.0%
Before July
Market Model 5.0% 6.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 26.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 32.0% 20.0%
Before July
Market Model 8.0% 8.0%
above 870 million
Market Model 97.0% 99.5%
above 850 million
Market Model 99.0% 99.5%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 22.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many launches will SpaceX have in April? Top outcome: Above 14 | 4.0% | 3.0% | High | $103,599 | New |
| When will any company achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 6.0% | 5.5% | High | $22,178 | New |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Citigroup | 37.0% | 29.0% | High | $79,352 | New |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in this year? Top outcome: Anduril | 20.0% | 20.1% | Med | $292,819 | New |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 12.0% | 7.9% | High | $67,236 | New |
| When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2027 | 20.0% | 13.4% | High | $76,872 | New |
| SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Top outcome: Before May | 83.0% | 65.4% | High | $1,045,254 | New |
| 8.0% | 1.9% | Med | $70,080 | New | |
| Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year? Yes refers to: Hires | 21.0% | 14.1% | Med | $35,324 | New |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 8.0% | 5.1% | Med | $80,724 | New |
| How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter in 2026? Top outcome: above 1000 | 45.0% | 39.1% | High | $61,733 | New |
| Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 1.1% | Med | $26,492 | New |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 56.0% | 56.0% | Med | $90,305 | New |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 54.0% | 68.0% | Med | $116,636 | New |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 21.0% | 21.5% | Med | $711,678 | New |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 29.0% | 15.0% | Med | $96,385 | New |
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Citigroup | 87.0% | 86.5% | Med | $647,231 | New |
| When will Starlink officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 30, 2027 | 14.0% | 83.0% | Med | $112,820 | New |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 81.0% | 74.0% | Med | $2,631,225 | New |
| When will Apple release the iPhone 18? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 37.0% | 95.0% | Med | $153,528 | New |
| Who will acquire Pinterest this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 14.0% | 16.0% | Med | $66,300 | New |
| When will Discord officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 22.0% | 78.0% | Med | $58,063 | New |
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 80.0% | 83.5% | Med | $20,385 | New |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 9.0% | 6.3% | Med | $52,315 | New |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026 | 38.0% | 43.5% | Med | $492,938 | New |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year? Top outcome: SpaceX | 92.0% | 80.0% | Med | $681,424 | New |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Top outcome: Before July | 5.0% | 6.5% | Med | $12,539 | New |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 32.0% | 20.0% | Med | $88,753 | New |
| DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Top outcome: above 870 million | 97.0% | 99.5% | Med | $67,904 | New |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 22.5% | Med | $213,169 | New |
