Before April
Market Model 29.0% 38.5%
Before March
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Companies Markets
Active Markets (28)
Before 2027
Market Model 32.0% 5.0%
Before July
Market Model 9.0% 2.0%
Before July
Market Model 8.0% 6.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 13.5%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 77.5%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 14.5%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 17.5%
Above 12
Market Model 5.0% 0.1%
Above 13
Market Model 3.0% 0.1%
Before 2027
Market Model 39.0% 38.0%
Before October
Market Model 36.0% 32.5%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 70.0% 53.2%
Citigroup
Market Model 37.0% 53.2%
At least $900
Market Model 30.0% 26.5%
At least $800
Market Model 67.0% 66.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 6.0% 5.5%
Palantir
Market Model 14.0% 13.0%
Before Jun 30, 2027
Market Model 13.0% 11.5%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 5.5%
Bank of America
Market Model 86.0% 84.0%
Citigroup
Market Model 44.0% 45.0%
Above 160
Market Model 52.0% 47.5%
Above 190
Market Model 11.0% 24.0%
Disney
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
Netflix
Market Model 19.0% 21.0%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 19.5%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 70.0% 64.5%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 17.0% 16.5%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 2.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 56.0% 53.5%
Paramount
Market Model 59.0% 64.2%
Netflix
Market Model 33.0% 28.4%
350000 or more
Market Model 19.0% 24.5%
340000 or more
Market Model 28.0% 32.0%
above 870 million
Market Model 1.0% 99.4%
above 850 million
Market Model 1.0% 99.6%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 11.5%
SpaceX
Market Model 83.0% 79.5%
Databricks
Market Model 34.0% 24.5%
Before March
Market Model 5.0% 7.5%
Before June
Market Model 49.0% 37.5%
Before Mar 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 19.0% 26.5%
OpenAI
Market Model 17.0% 16.0%
Meta
Market Model 15.0% 9.0%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 23.0% 20.5%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 7.0% 4.5%
Above 270 billion
Market Model 21.0% 20.5%
Above 280 billion
Market Model 10.0% 7.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Top outcome: Before April | 29.0% | 38.5% | Med | $432,821 | Ask |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 32.0% | 5.0% | Med | $90,276 | Ask |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Top outcome: Before July | 8.0% | 6.0% | Med | $15,200 | Ask |
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 81.0% | 77.5% | Med | $21,805 | Ask |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 15.0% | 14.5% | Med | $52,395 | Ask |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 21.0% | 17.5% | Med | $221,608 | Ask |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in February 2026? Top outcome: Above 12 | 5.0% | 0.1% | Med | $1,120,834 | Ask |
| When will Apple release the iPhone 18? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 39.0% | 38.0% | Med | $122,897 | Ask |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Goldman Sachs | 70.0% | 53.2% | Med | $56,192 | Ask |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 30.0% | 26.5% | Med | $88,777 | Ask |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027? Top outcome: Anthropic | 6.0% | 5.5% | Med | $216,518 | Ask |
| When will Starlink officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 30, 2027 | 13.0% | 11.5% | Med | $90,757 | Ask |
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Bank of America | 86.0% | 84.0% | Med | $575,048 | Ask |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 52.0% | 47.5% | Med | $68,841 | Ask |
| 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | $58,696 | Ask | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 18.0% | 19.5% | Med | $322,028 | Ask |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 70.0% | 64.5% | Med | $509,734 | Ask |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 2.5% | Med | $90,319 | Ask |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 59.0% | 64.2% | Med | $1,734,485 | Ask |
| Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Top outcome: 350000 or more | 19.0% | 24.5% | Med | $289,758 | Ask |
| DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Top outcome: above 870 million | 1.0% | 99.4% | Med | $69,700 | Ask |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 12.0% | 11.5% | Med | $71,553 | Ask |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year? Top outcome: SpaceX | 83.0% | 79.5% | Med | $681,656 | Ask |
| Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros? Top outcome: Before March | 5.0% | 7.5% | Med | $761,691 | Ask |
| When will Discord officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Mar 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $58,068 | Ask |
| Who will acquire Pinterest this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 17.0% | 16.0% | Med | $66,326 | Ask |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 23.0% | 20.5% | Med | $55,513 | Ask |
| Coinbase trading volume in Q4? Top outcome: Above 270 billion | 21.0% | 20.5% | Med | $357,769 | Ask |
Expired Markets (1)
Josh D'Amaro
Market Model 1.0% 100.0%
Dana Walden
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will be the next CEO of Disney? Top outcome: Josh D'Amaro | 1.0% | 100.0% | High | $55,833 | Ask |
