Above 270 billion
Market Model 21% 20.5%
Above 280 billion
Market Model 10% 7%
Active Markets (18)
Before July
Market Model 7% 0%
Before 2027
Market Model 18% 16%
Before 2027
Market Model 38% 37.5%
Before July
Market Model 16% 13.5%
350000 or more
Market Model 42% 0.2%
340000 or more
Market Model 62% 0.1%
Before April
Market Model 57% 57%
Before March
Market Model 1% 0%
Before March
Market Model 9% 0.2%
Before December
Market Model 28% 0.3%
Above 160
Market Model 65% 63%
Above 170
Market Model 56% 56.5%
Yes
Market Model 27% 0.5%
Josh D'Amaro
Market Model 1% 98.8%
Dana Walden
Market Model 1% 0.3%
Yes
Market Model 12% 0%
SpaceX
Market Model 87% 1%
Databricks
Market Model 46% 45%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 75% 72.5%
Citigroup
Market Model 40% 37%
Yes
Market Model 14% 0.4%
At least $900
Market Model 38% 38.5%
At least $800
Market Model 78% 74.5%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 22% 0.1%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 7% 0.1%
Anthropic
Market Model 11% 9%
Palantir
Market Model 18% 0.3%
Paramount
Market Model 23% 18.5%
Netflix
Market Model 60% 61%
Bank of America
Market Model 85% 83%
Citigroup
Market Model 51% 49%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase trading volume in Q4? Top outcome: Above 270 billion | 21% | 20.5% | Med | $357,769 | Ask |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Top outcome: Before July | 7% | 0% | Med | $8,814 | Ask |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 38% | 37.5% | Med | $77,897 | Ask |
| Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Top outcome: 350000 or more | 42% | 0.2% | Med | $180,738 | Ask |
| SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Top outcome: Before April | 57% | 57% | Med | $214,483 | Ask |
| Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros? Top outcome: Before March | 9% | 0.2% | Med | $431,217 | Ask |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 65% | 63% | Med | $56,145 | Ask |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 27% | 0.5% | Med | $197,646 | Ask |
| Who will be the next CEO of Disney? Top outcome: Josh D'Amaro | 1% | 98.8% | High | $50,353 | Ask |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 12% | 0% | Med | $61,650 | Ask |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO before 2027? Top outcome: SpaceX | 87% | 1% | Med | $485,382 | Ask |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Goldman Sachs | 75% | 72.5% | Med | $50,292 | Ask |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 14% | 0.4% | Med | $213,010 | Ask |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 38% | 38.5% | Med | $60,063 | Ask |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 22% | 0.1% | Med | $53,239 | Ask |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027? Top outcome: Anthropic | 11% | 9% | Med | $194,985 | Ask |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 23% | 18.5% | High | $1,039,405 | Ask |
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Bank of America | 85% | 83% | Med | $509,741 | Ask |
