Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Cerebras to officially announce an IPO this year, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Q1 2026 macroeconomic shifts significantly delayed IPO announcements.
- OpenAI and Anthropic are targeting late 2026 IPOs.
- Jersey Mike's announced its IPO by filing a confidential S-1 on April 20, 2026.
- Cerebras Systems announced its IPO roadshow on May 4, 2026.
- Vida Global announced its IPO roadshow on April 29, 2026.
- AEVEX Corp filed its S-1 on March 23, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 95.0% | 93.9% | Ambitious expansion plans for Starship and Starlink may necessitate public funding or offer investor liquidity. |
| Databricks | 13.0% | 5.7% | Continued strong private funding rounds indicate no immediate need to pursue a public offering. |
| OpenAI | 48.0% | 35.2% | Rapid growth and high valuation could lead to a public offering, despite its complex ownership structure. |
| Anthropic | 72.0% | 63.5% | Strong performance in the AI sector and significant investor interest could prompt a public market debut. |
| Anduril | 11.0% | 4.6% | The company likely continues to secure substantial private investment, deferring a public market entry. |
Current Context
Several notable companies are actively pursuing near-term initial public offerings. Cerebras Systems filed a public S-1/A on May 4, 2026, proposing to offer 28 million Class A shares at a price range of $115-$125, estimated to generate approximately $3.2 billion in net proceeds under the Nasdaq ticker CBRS [^][^][^]. Fitness application Strava confidentially submitted its S-1 on February 2, 2026, targeting a spring 2026 IPO with an estimated valuation of $2.2-$3 billion, citing 50% year-over-year revenue growth and Goldman Sachs as the lead underwriter [^][^][^][^]. Discord also made a confidential IPO filing on January 7, 2026, aiming for a March 2026 debut with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan leading, building on its over 200 million monthly active users and a previous $15 billion valuation [^][^][^][^].
Major industry players are setting the stage for significant future public debuts. SpaceX is targeting a mid-June 2026 IPO, with potential to raise $50 billion at a valuation of $1.5-$1.75 trillion, which would mark it as the largest IPO in history [^][^]. OpenAI is reportedly laying the groundwork for an IPO in Q4 2026, with its valuation potentially reaching up to $1 trillion [^][^]. In related news, Anthropic secured $380 billion in funding after February 2026 [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has demonstrated a consistent upward trend, starting with a high probability of 85.0% and climbing to its current price of 93.0%. The most significant price movement occurred in early May, when the probability jumped from 87.0% to 93.0%. This sharp increase in market confidence corresponds directly with the timing of the news that Cerebras Systems filed a public S-1/A on May 4, 2026. This public filing is a critical step toward an IPO and appears to have been the primary catalyst for the price surge, as traders priced in a much higher likelihood of an official IPO announcement occurring within the year.
The trading volume provides further insight into market conviction. While initial volume was low, it spiked significantly alongside the price increase around May 8, suggesting that the move to 93.0% was backed by decisive trading activity. The market established an early support level at 85.0% and has since moved into a new, higher range between 93.0% and 94.0%. This price action indicates a very strong and growing market sentiment that at least one of the companies in question will officially announce an IPO before the resolution date. The consistently high probability suggests traders have viewed this outcome as likely from the start, with recent developments only reinforcing that conviction.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if OpenAI officially confirms an IPO before January 1, 2027. An IPO is considered confirmed if the SEC declares Form S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or a securities exchange assigns a ticker. If no such event occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, the market resolves to No.
Upon confirmation, the market will resolve immediately to Yes, even if the company's trading starts after the deadline, and trading by those with insider knowledge or influence is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerebras | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| SpaceX | $0.93 | $0.09 | 95% |
| Jersey Mike's | $0.93 | $0.09 | 93% |
| Anthropic | $0.72 | $0.32 | 72% |
| Kraken | $0.68 | $0.33 | 68% |
| Discord | $0.57 | $0.48 | 52% |
| OpenAI | $0.47 | $0.56 | 48% |
| Skims | $0.25 | $0.81 | 25% |
| Shein | $0.19 | $0.84 | 23% |
| Deel | $0.19 | $0.89 | 20% |
| Applied Intuition | $0.13 | $0.89 | 17% |
| Ramp | $0.13 | $0.92 | 14% |
| Beast Industries | $0.14 | $0.87 | 13% |
| Databricks | $0.13 | $0.89 | 13% |
| Vanta | $0.13 | $0.94 | 13% |
| Anduril | $0.11 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Plaid | $0.11 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Airwallex | $0.08 | $0.95 | 10% |
| Celonis | $0.10 | $0.92 | 10% |
| Glean | $0.10 | $0.93 | 10% |
| Mistral AI | $0.13 | $0.94 | 10% |
| Stripe | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Rippling | $0.13 | $0.88 | 8% |
| xAI | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Anysphere (Cursor) | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Ripple Labs | $0.11 | $0.94 | 5% |
| Brex | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
Market Discussion
As of May 8, 2026, no companies have officially announced a traditional IPO this year [^]. However, several companies are scheduled for expected pricings, with Cerebras Systems reportedly slated for May 14, 2026 [^]. Prediction markets indicate high interest and speculation for potential 2026 IPOs from companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, Databricks, and Anthropic [^].
4. What macroeconomic shifts or changes in the performance of the Renaissance IPO ETF during 2026 could accelerate or delay IPO announcements from major candidates like SpaceX and Databricks?
| Renaissance IPO ETF Q1 2026 Return | -8.2% [^] |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 Q1 2026 Return | -4.4% [^] |
| March 2026 Priced IPOs | 8 [^] |
Q1 2026 macroeconomic shifts significantly delayed IPO announcements. The first quarter of 2026 was characterized by a tech sell-off and surging volatility, which led to the Renaissance IPO ETF underperforming the S&P 500 and negatively impacting new stock offerings [^]. This period presented significant macroeconomic headwinds, including tariffs, private credit concerns, and a Mideast war, which contributed to risk aversion and the compression of software valuations [^]. Reflecting this downturn, the US IPO market saw only 8 priced IPOs in March 2026, a notable decrease after February peaked at 16 for year-to-date 2026 [^].
Market recovery in April 2026 could accelerate major IPOs. Conversely, a market recovery observed in April 2026, following the volatility of Q1, has the potential to accelerate IPO announcements from major candidates [^]. For example, SpaceX had targeted an early June 2026 roadshow, and optimism surrounding its potential offering began to revive the IPO pipeline late in Q1 [^]. Databricks, with a likely H2 2026 IPO, had not filed its S-1 by April, suggesting its timing remains susceptible to both the software valuation compression noted in Q1 and the subsequent market recovery [^].
5. What does the typical timeline from a confidential S-1 filing to a public IPO announcement suggest for companies like Discord and Strava, based on historical data from comparable tech IPOs?
| Typical S-1 review to public filing | Two to four months [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Discord expected public filing | Around March 2026 [^] |
| Full IPO from confidential S-1 | Approximately four months [^][^][^] |
The typical IPO process from confidential S-1 to public filing takes several months. Companies generally take two to four months to transition from a confidential S-1 filing to a public one, a period that includes the SEC's review process, which typically involves initial comments within 30 days and two to four subsequent rounds of feedback [^][^]. Furthermore, the public S-1 must be submitted at least 15 days before a roadshow commences, with the full initial public offering usually occurring approximately four months after the initial confidential filing [^][^][^]. For instance, Snowflake's confidential filing occurred on June 15, 2020, followed by its public filing on August 24, which was a span of roughly 2.5 months [^][^].
Discord and Strava's confidential S-1 filings align with historical patterns. Discord filed confidentially in early January 2026 [^][^], and a public filing is anticipated around March 2026 [^]. Similarly, Strava confidentially submitted its S-1 between January 2 and 8, 2026 [^][^][^][^], indicating a potential spring 2026 IPO [^][^][^][^]. These timelines are consistent with general expectations for companies moving from a confidential S-1 filing toward a public offering.
6. How do the pre-IPO valuation trajectories and funding complexities of AI titans OpenAI and Anthropic compare, and what do these factors imply for their respective IPO readiness in late 2026?
| OpenAI March 2026 Valuation | $852 billion (March 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Anthropic May 2026 Implied Valuation | $1.2 trillion (May 2026) [^] |
| Anthropic Google Cloud Commitment | $200 billion (through 2031) [^][^] |
Both AI titans are targeting late 2026 IPOs with differing valuations. OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly preparing for potential initial public offerings as early as late 2026, although neither company had officially announced an IPO as of May 8, 2026 [^][^][^]. Their pre-IPO valuation trajectories show significant differences, with Anthropic's implied valuation potentially surpassing OpenAI's in the pre-IPO market, despite both navigating complex funding landscapes ahead of anticipated public listings [^].
OpenAI's valuation reached $852 billion despite projected losses. In March 2026, OpenAI's valuation reached $852 billion after securing $122 billion from investors including Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank [^][^]. Despite this significant funding, the company anticipates a $14 billion loss in 2026 and does not expect to achieve profitability until around 2030 [^]. OpenAI is actively preparing for an IPO in Q4 2026, with plans to allocate shares to retail investors [^][^].
Anthropic demonstrates rapid valuation growth and significant strategic advantages. Anthropic secured $30 billion in Series G funding, achieving a $380 billion post-money valuation in February 2026 [^]. By April-May 2026, the company was reportedly targeting a valuation over $900 billion with a $50 billion raise, and its implied pre-IPO valuation subsequently reached $1.2 trillion by May 2026, surpassing OpenAI's in the pre-IPO market [^][^][^][^]. Additionally, Anthropic benefits from a $200 billion Google Cloud commitment extending through 2031, averaging approximately $40 billion annually [^][^]. Anthropic plans an IPO as early as 2026, with talks noted in October 2026 [^][^]. This rapid valuation growth and substantial cloud commitment stand in contrast to OpenAI's projected losses for several more years, potentially influencing investor sentiment [^][^][^][^].
7. What specific financial and risk-factor data within Cerebras Systems' public S-1/A filing offers the clearest precedent for evaluating other 2026 tech IPO candidates like Anduril or Ramp?
Cerebras's S-1/A offers clear financial data for IPO evaluation. Its filing detailed a significant financial trajectory, reporting $510 million in revenue for 2025, which marked a 76% year-over-year increase from $290.3 million in 2024 [^][^]. While the company achieved a GAAP net income of $237.8 million in 2025, this followed a substantial loss of $481.6 million in 2024, and non-GAAP losses grew to $75.7 million in 2025 [^][^]. Contributing to a valuation of approximately $23 billion, reflecting a 45x revenue multiple, were a substantial backlog of $24.6 billion and a major MRA, such as the $20 billion agreement with OpenAI for 750MW compute [^][^].
Key risk factors in the S-1/A require careful scrutiny. The Cerebras S-1/A identified significant customer concentration as a primary concern, with 86% of its 2025 revenue derived from two UAE entities, MBZUAI and G42, building on G42 representing 85% of 2024 revenue [^][^][^]. Other critical risks highlighted included geopolitical and UAE exposure, export controls, intense competition from established players like NVIDIA, and weaknesses in internal controls [^][^]. These specific examples underscore the necessity for comprehensive disclosure and thorough evaluation of unique operational, market, and geopolitical challenges for companies considering an IPO.
8. Which strategic moves, such as a major acquisition or international expansion by consumer-facing brands like Skims or Jersey Mike's, would likely act as a catalyst for an IPO announcement before 2027?
| Jersey Mike's IPO Filing Date | 2026-04-20 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Jersey Mike's Target Valuation | $12B [^] |
| Skims Valuation (2025) | $5B [^][^][^] |
Jersey Mike's IPO is imminent following major strategic developments. The company announced its IPO by filing a confidential S-1 on April 20, 2026, aiming for a target valuation of $12 billion [^][^][^][^]. This significant step followed strategic moves including an $8 billion acquisition by Blackstone in November 2024 and the appointment of a new CEO in April 2025 [^][^][^]. Furthermore, Jersey Mike's is actively expanding its global presence, with established sites in Canada and stated plans for entry into the UK and Ireland markets [^][^].
Skims' IPO has been delayed despite significant prior growth initiatives. Conversely, Skims' initial public offering has reportedly been postponed [^]. Prior to this delay, the company successfully raised $225 million in 2025, achieving a $5 billion valuation [^][^][^]. This funding was intended to fuel international expansion through the opening of more than 20 new stores and the development of activewear initiatives like NikeSKIMS [^][^][^]. Skims also expanded its brand portfolio by acquiring SKKN by Kim on March 24, 2025, bringing Kim Kardashian's beauty ventures under the Skims umbrella [^]. However, no additional strategic moves that would catalyze an IPO announcement by Skims before 2027 have been specified, given the reported delay [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Several companies have announced initial public offering (IPO) roadshows or filings. Cerebras Systems (CBRS) announced its IPO roadshow on May 4, 2026, for 28M shares at $115-125, with a Nasdaq listing planned [^]. Vida Global (VIDA) announced its IPO roadshow on April 29, 2026, offering 3.33M shares at $4.50-5.00 for a NYSE American/Texas listing [^]. Additionally, AEVEX Corp (AVEX) filed its S-1 on March 23, 2026, targeting the NYSE, although no roadshow has been announced yet [^].
Despite these developments, current IPO calendars indicate sparse activity, with no IPOs priced yet in May 2026 [^] [^] . However, several high-profile companies are speculated to go public in 2026. This list includes SpaceX, Stripe, which has a reported valuation of $159B, Discord, which had a confidential filing in January 2026, and Strava, also with a confidential filing in January 2026 [^][^][^]. The realization of these anticipated IPOs could act as significant catalysts for market changes.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Several companies have announced initial public offering (IPO) roadshows or filings.
- Trigger: Cerebras Systems (CBRS) announced its IPO roadshow on May 4, 2026, for 28M shares at $115-125, with a Nasdaq listing planned [^] .
- Trigger: Vida Global (VIDA) announced its IPO roadshow on April 29, 2026, offering 3.33M shares at $4.50-5.00 for a NYSE American/Texas listing [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, AEVEX Corp (AVEX) filed its S-1 on March 23, 2026, targeting the NYSE, although no roadshow has been announced yet [^] .
12. Related News
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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