Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: Anduril at 17.8% model vs 30.0% market, suggesting a lower likelihood that the US will take a stake in Anduril by January 1, 2027.
1. Executive Verdict
- US government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel in August 2025.
- US government took an 8-16% stake in USA Rare Earth on Jan 26, 2026.
- TikTok US completed private divestiture in January 2026, avoiding a government stake.
- US government explored defense contractor stakes, but opted for alternatives instead.
- A US equity stake in Palantir appears likely, driven by government revenue.
- Anthropic's structure and foreign investors raise significant national security concerns.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit Airlines | 11.0% | 4.6% | The US government may support airline competition or critical domestic infrastructure sectors. |
| Anduril | 30.0% | 17.8% | Defense modernization efforts often drive government investment in advanced technology providers. |
| Palantir | 16.0% | 7.5% | National security and intelligence operations frequently leverage specialized data analytics partners. |
| Anthropic | 8.0% | 2.3% | The US government aims to ensure domestic leadership in critical artificial intelligence development. |
| Lockheed Martin | 16.0% | 7.5% | Sustained high defense spending remains a priority, benefiting major military contractors. |
Current Context
The Trump administration has established an expanding portfolio of equity stakes. By February 2026, the administration had taken or agreed to stakes in at least 10 companies, with a reported total of $20.9 billion across 16 deals initiated since January 2025 [^][^][^]. Notable investments include an 8-16% stake in USA Rare Earth (January 2026), holdings in MP Materials, a golden share in U.S. Steel (June 2025), and a 10% stake in Intel valued at $8.9 billion in August 2025, which has since quadrupled to $36 billion [^][^][^]. The Department of Defense was involved in seven of these deals, which also encompassed companies like Trilogy Metals and Westinghouse [^][^]. The administration also announced an equity stake of up to $150 million in the chip startup xLight in December 2025 [^][^].
Future government equity acquisitions are being considered across key sectors. The Pentagon was actively exploring potential stakes in defense firms, including Lockheed Martin, as of August 2025 [^][^]. This aligns with an administration policy announced in January 2026, which aims to restrict defense companies from paying dividends or engaging in stock buybacks [^]. Prediction markets indicate strong possibilities for additional government investments; Polymarket odds from early 2026 show high probabilities for stakes in TikTok (51%), Boeing (45%), and Lockheed Martin (45%) [^][^]. Other companies with significant odds include Palantir (41%) and Eli Lilly (35%) [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a sideways trend with a slight downward bias since its inception. The contract price began at a high of 14.0% in late April 2026 before declining to 10.0% by mid-May 2026, where it has generally consolidated since. The price action has remained within a defined range, establishing resistance at the 14.0% opening level and finding support near the 7.0% mark. The most significant movement was this initial drop in probability in the market's early weeks.
The price behavior reflects the market's reaction to the provided context. The market appears to have opened after news from February 2026 had already detailed an expanding government portfolio with stakes in at least 10 companies. The initial drop from 14.0% to 10.0% suggests that early participants may have overestimated the likelihood of additional, imminent investments. The subsequent stabilization at a low probability indicates that traders believe the pace of new government stakes may have slowed after the initial flurry of deals reported to have been initiated since January 2025. The current 10.0% price implies a low but persistent belief that another deal is possible before resolution, but with less certainty than when the market began.
Overall market sentiment appears to be lukewarm and lacking strong conviction. The total traded volume of only 827 contracts across the market's lifespan is exceptionally low, suggesting that price movements are not supported by significant trading activity and may reflect the actions of only a small number of participants. This low liquidity indicates that the market has not developed a strong consensus, but the prevailing price suggests a belief that while further government investments in private companies are possible, they are not highly probable within the given timeframe.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 27, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 12.0% to 21.0%
Outcome: Palantir
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike was President Trump's influential "Truth Social praise" for Palantir throughout April, including specific comments on April 10, 2026 [^]. This social media activity, signaling strong governmental favor, was explicitly highlighted as "good news from President Trump and the U.S. Government" for Palantir investors on April 24, 2026, just days before the market movement [^]. This narrative was further solidified by the coinciding news of Palantir securing a $300 million USDA contract on April 22, 2026, which was reported alongside Trump's positive sentiment [^]. Therefore, social media was a primary driver, central to amplifying the perceived likelihood of a US government equity stake by linking presidential endorsement with a major contract win.
📉 April 26, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 21.0% to 12.0%
Outcome: Palantir
What happened: Based on the provided information, no specific social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors have been identified as the primary driver for Palantir's 9.0 percentage point drop on April 26, 2026. The available news reports detail the Trump administration's existing stakes in companies like USA Rare Earth and Intel [^], but these announcements occurred significantly before April 26, 2026, and do not directly address Palantir or explain a sudden decrease in its likelihood of receiving a US stake. Therefore, the primary driver for this particular market movement cannot be determined from the given sources, and the role of social media cannot be assessed.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market for Anduril resolves to "Yes" if any part of the U.S. federal government acquires a direct equity stake (including voting shares, equivalent ownership, or indirect ownership via controlled investment vehicles) in Anduril before January 1, 2027. If no such stake is acquired by this date, the market resolves to "No." The market closes early upon announcement of a qualifying stake acquisition, otherwise by December 31, 2026, with verification relying on specified federal government, company, and major news sources.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anduril | $0.31 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Boeing | $0.19 | $0.82 | 18% |
| GlobalFoundries | $0.17 | $0.84 | 17% |
| Lockheed Martin | $0.17 | $0.84 | 16% |
| Palantir | $0.16 | $0.85 | 16% |
| Rigetti Computing | $0.17 | $0.84 | 16% |
| IonQ | $0.15 | $0.86 | 13% |
| Nvidia | $0.12 | $0.90 | 12% |
| Pfizer | $0.09 | $0.92 | 11% |
| Spirit Airlines | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| OpenAI | $0.12 | $0.89 | 10% |
| TikTok US | $0.10 | $0.94 | 10% |
| D-Wave Quantum | $0.09 | $0.92 | 9% |
| Freeport-McMoRan | $0.10 | $0.91 | 9% |
| Micron | $0.11 | $0.90 | 9% |
| Anthropic | $0.09 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Eli Lilly | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| TSMC | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
Market Discussion
The market shows probabilities for the US taking stakes in Anduril (30%), Boeing (18%), and Lockheed Martin (16%), though explicit discussion on these companies is absent. Instead, recent trader activity predominantly focuses on Spirit Airlines, with some speculating a government stake is likely due to its financial issues, including liquidation, or through politically-charged, hypothetical scenarios. Arguments against the US taking a stake in any company are not clearly articulated in the provided discussion.
5. What national security or supply chain events could trigger a U.S. government stake in defense contractors like Boeing or Lockheed Martin before 2027?
| L3Harris Supply Chain Investment | $1 billion [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Defense Supply Chain Risk (Lead Time/Capacity) | 51% [^][^] |
| Lockheed Martin Equity Stake Odds (by end of 2026) | 18% [^] |
The U.S. government explored defense contractor equity stakes but opted for alternatives. The Trump administration considered taking equity stakes in defense contractors such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin as early as August 2025 [^][^]. However, this approach for prime contractors was not ultimately pursued; instead, a profit-sharing deal was established with Lockheed, and direct investments were made into the supply chain, including a $1 billion investment in L3Harris [^][^]. As of May 2026, there was no confirmed U.S. government equity stake in either Boeing or Lockheed [^].
Supply chain vulnerabilities drive the Pentagon's strategic equity considerations. Defense supply chain vulnerabilities are a significant concern, with 51% of issues attributed to long lead times or capacity problems and 38% to challenges in accessing foreign raw materials [^][^]. Additionally, shutdowns have resulted in a substantial 76% reduction in orders for small suppliers [^]. The Pentagon views equity as a strategic tool to stimulate production growth, provided specific conditions are met, including non-control provisions and clear exit strategies, a topic under congressional scrutiny in March 2026 [^].
Equity plans target smaller firms, reducing large contractor likelihood. A Boeing executive indicated in December 2025 that any equity plan targets are intended for smaller companies within the supply chain, rather than large defense prime contractors such as Boeing, Lockheed, RTX, or Northrop [^]. The prediction market assessed the likelihood of a U.S. equity stake in Lockheed Martin by the end of 2026 at 18% as of April 19, 2026 [^].
6. What evidence from government contracts and official statements supports the market's high probability of a U.S. stake in Palantir?
| US Govt Revenue Growth | 84% year-over-year to $687 million in Q1 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| US Army Contract | $10 billion over 10 years [^] |
| DHS Contract | $1 billion over five years [^] |
The market indicates a likely U.S. equity stake in Palantir. This perception is driven by the company's substantial and growing revenue from U.S. government contracts, coupled with a recent public endorsement from former President Trump [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, despite this market sentiment, there has been no official announcement or policy action to formally establish a U.S. equity stake in Palantir [^].
Palantir demonstrates substantial revenue growth from U.S. government contracts. The company reported an 84% year-over-year increase in U.S. government revenue, reaching $687 million in Q1 2026 [^]. This growth is supported by significant government contracts, including a $10 billion US Army enterprise agreement spanning 10 years [^], a $1 billion Department of Homeland Security blanket purchase agreement for software and services over five years [^], and a $300 million USDA blanket purchase agreement for farm data modernization and security [^][^]. Additionally, in April 2026, Trump publicly stated on Truth Social that 'Palantir Technologies has proven to have great war fighting capabilities' [^][^][^].
No official U.S. equity stake currently exists in Palantir. Despite Palantir's profitability and a market capitalization exceeding $400 billion, there has been no official legislation, executive order, or announcement regarding a U.S. equity stake, which is unusual for a firm of its stature [^]. While In-Q-Tel was an early investor with approximately $2 million in 2005, no current significant direct U.S. government stake is listed for Palantir [^][^].
7. Between OpenAI and Anthropic, which company's corporate structure and foreign investor profile poses a greater national security concern for the U.S. government?
| Anthropic National Security Designation | Supply chain risk, March 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Anthropic Major Foreign Investors | QIA (Qatar), MGX (UAE), GIC (Singapore) [^][^][^][^] |
| OpenAI Major Foreign Investors | SoftBank ($40 billion, 11%), MGX (UAE), Microsoft (US, 27%) [^][^][^] |
Anthropic's corporate structure and foreign investors raise significant U.S. national security concerns. The Department of War designated Anthropic a supply chain risk in March 2026, marking it as the first U.S. firm to receive such a designation due to safety redlines concerning mass surveillance and autonomous weapons [^][^][^]. Major foreign investors in Anthropic include QIA (Qatar), MGX (UAE), and GIC (Singapore), which collectively co-led a Series G financing round totaling $30 billion in February 2026 [^][^][^][^].
OpenAI has taken steps to align with U.S. national security interests. In contrast to Anthropic's situation, OpenAI engaged in a deal with the Pentagon and its leadership urged the government to drop Anthropic's designation for national security reasons against China [^][^]. OpenAI's major foreign investors include SoftBank with a commitment of over $40 billion, representing approximately 11% of the company, and MGX (UAE). Microsoft (US) also holds a substantial 27% stake in OpenAI [^][^][^].
Anthropic's explicit designation clearly differentiates its national security profile. The U.S. government's concern is directly indicated by the company's designation as an 'unacceptable' national security risk in March 2026 [^][^]. While both companies have investments from MGX (UAE) [^], Anthropic's additional foreign investors from Qatar and Singapore, combined with its official status as a supply chain risk, distinguish its national security standing from OpenAI's, which has actively collaborated with the Pentagon to address national security interests [^][^].
8. What legislative or CFIUS actions regarding foreign ownership could force a sale or government stake in TikTok US or OpenAI by 2027?
| TikTok US Divestiture Completion | January 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| US Government Stake in TikTok US | None [^][^][^][^] |
| Legislation for OpenAI Gov Stake | None identified [^][^][^] |
TikTok US completed a private divestiture, avoiding a government stake by 2027. This private divestiture was finalized in January 2026, transitioning TikTok US into the TikTok USDS JV [^][^]. Under this agreement, ByteDance holds less than 20% ownership, while a consortium of private investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, collectively owns 45% [^][^][^][^]. A Trump Executive Order certified this transaction as a qualified divestiture, thereby preventing a ban without the need for a government stake [^]. CFIUS mitigation for TikTok US was achieved through the involvement of private investors and security oversight by Oracle, with no US government equity included in the deal [^][^][^][^]. Prediction market odds also indicate a 'No' outcome for a US government stake in TikTok US, consistent with the finalization of this private arrangement [^][^][^].
OpenAI faces no current actions compelling a sale or government stake. As of October 2025, OpenAI operates with a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) structure, where the OpenAI Foundation holds 26% ownership, Microsoft holds 27%, and employees and other stakeholders account for 47% [^][^]. There is no identified legislation or CFIUS action that would compel a sale or mandate a government stake in OpenAI [^][^][^]. While potential CFIUS scrutiny is noted for significant Middle East funds, Trump-era policies primarily focus on restricting foreign investment, particularly from China, in US AI through CFIUS and outbound rules, rather than enforcing government stakes in companies like OpenAI [^][^][^]. Prediction market data regarding a government stake in OpenAI is unspecified, with no evidence of such plans [^].
9. How do the terms of CHIPS Act funding for Intel, TSMC, and Micron create pathways for a direct U.S. government equity stake?
| US Govt stake in Intel | 9.9% (August 2025) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Intel stake return | ~300% (by May 2026) [^][^] |
| TSMC CHIPS grant | $6.6 billion (2024) [^][^][^] |
The U.S. government acquired a significant and profitable equity stake in Intel. In August 2025, the U.S. government obtained a 9.9% equity stake in Intel, which resulted from an $8.9 billion CHIPS/Secure Enclave conversion. This transaction involved 433.3 million shares priced at $20.47 per share and included a warrant for an additional 5% of the company [^][^][^]. This stake proved highly lucrative, yielding approximately a 300% return for the U.S. government by May 2026 [^][^]. The primary pathway for this direct government equity stake was established by a Trump administration policy that converted unpaid grants into equity for companies deemed underperforming [^][^][^].
High-investing companies like TSMC and Micron were exempted from equity demands. In contrast to Intel, companies demonstrating substantial investment levels, such as TSMC and Micron, were explicitly exempted from equity demands linked to CHIPS Act funding [^]. TSMC finalized a $6.6 billion CHIPS grant in 2024 and expanded its investment to over $165 billion in Arizona fabrication facilities, with no government equity stake being requested [^][^][^]. Similarly, Micron received up to $6.4 billion in CHIPS grants for its fabrication plants in Idaho and New York, increasing its overall investment to $200 billion, and was confirmed to be exempt from equity demands [^][^][^][^]. According to available data, no additional government equity stakes in companies were reported for 2026 [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The U.S. government has made significant equity investments in strategic sectors. This includes an 8-16% stake and a $1.6B investment in USA Rare Earth for its Round Top Mine in Texas, which occurred on Jan 26, 2026 [^][^]. Additionally, a ~10% stake in Intel was acquired in Aug 2025 for $8.9B, with its value reportedly quadrupling to $36B by Apr 2026 [^][^][^]. The Pentagon also secured a 15% stake in MP Materials in Jul 2025, with potential for increase [^][^][^]. Furthermore, U.S. Steel has a golden share for governance influence [^][^][^].
Since Jan 2025, total commitments across 10-11 companies have exceeded $10B+ [^] [^] [^] . companies and markets">[^][^]. These strategic investments span critical sectors such as critical minerals, semiconductors, nuclear, and defense [^][^]. Prediction markets indicate a 45% probability for Lockheed Martin, 51% for TikTok/Bytedance, and 41% for Palantir to see U.S. government stakes before 2027-01-01 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The U.S.
- Trigger: Government has made significant equity investments in strategic sectors.
- Trigger: This includes an 8-16% stake and a $1.6B investment in USA Rare Earth for its Round Top Mine in Texas, which occurred on Jan 26, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, a ~10% stake in Intel was acquired in Aug 2025 for $8.9B, with its value reportedly quadrupling to $36B by Apr 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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