Valar Atomics
Market Model 69% 93.8%
Atomic Alchemy
Market Model 36% 35.5%
Active Markets (16)
Yes
Market Model 58% 14.7%
Before 2028
Market Model 26% 0.7%
Before 2030
Market Model 41% 0.8%
Before 2028
Market Model 12% 11.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 6% 0.1%
Yes
Market Model 96% 0.9%
Anthropic
Market Model 59% 52.9%
Google
Market Model 12% 11.4%
Yes
Market Model 49% 48%
Gemini
Market Model 48% 47.1%
ChatGPT
Market Model 14% 13.3%
Above 4000
Market Model 80% 1%
Above 750
Market Model 1% 1%
Yes
Market Model 34% 39%
Before 2027
Market Model 7% 0%
Before 2028
Market Model 18% 16%
Yes
Market Model 15% 14.5%
Yes
Market Model 33% 31.5%
xAI
Market Model 66% 64.5%
Anthropic
Market Model 43% 48.5%
At least 1000
Market Model 98% 1%
At least 5000
Market Model 56% 53.5%
United States
Market Model 71% 0.6%
China
Market Model 35% 31.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? Top outcome: Valar Atomics | 69% | 93.8% | Med | $69,233 | Ask |
| Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 58% | 14.7% | Med | $67,411 | Ask |
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 26% | 0.7% | Med | $268,910 | Ask |
| When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 12% | 11.5% | Med | $40,305 | Ask |
| When will xAI release Grok 4.2? Yes refers to: Before Apr 21, 2026 | 96% | 0.9% | Med | $5,728 | Ask |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic | 59% | 52.9% | Med | $99,071 | Ask |
| Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 49% | 48% | Med | $60,625 | Ask |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Gemini | 48% | 47.1% | Med | $749,089 | Ask |
| Measles cases in 2026? Top outcome: Above 4000 | 80% | 1% | Med | $328,123 | Ask |
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? Yes refers to: Grants license | 34% | 39% | Med | $146,484 | Ask |
| NASA lands on the moon? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 7% | 0% | Med | $101,510 | Ask |
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 15% | 14.5% | Med | $1,137,590 | Ask |
| Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027? Yes refers to: Any psychedelic substance for medical use | 33% | 31.5% | Med | $57,462 | Ask |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: xAI | 66% | 64.5% | Med | $79,878 | Ask |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Top outcome: At least 1000 | 98% | 1% | Med | $74,230 | Ask |
| Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Top outcome: United States | 71% | 0.6% | Med | $75,962 | Ask |
