Before 2026
Market Model 1.0% 10.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 31.0% 68.0%
Science and Technology Markets
Active Markets (21)
Yes
Market Model 54.0% 53.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 16.0% 15.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 6.0% 5.0%
Gemini
Market Model 2.0% 3.4%
Claude
Market Model 97.0% 92.1%
claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
gemini-3-pro
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Earbuds/Headphones
Market Model 70.0% 67.5%
Clip-on device for clothing
Market Model 41.0% 37.5%
At least 1550 score
Market Model 52.0% 52.5%
At least 1575 score
Market Model 29.0% 32.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 17.0% 15.5%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 30.5%
Anthropic
Market Model 45.0% 42.9%
Google
Market Model 16.0% 13.2%
Claude
Market Model 33.0% 32.7%
Gemini
Market Model 40.0% 40.6%
Above 10000
Market Model 27.0% 30.5%
Above 4000
Market Model 69.0% 75.5%
Yes
Market Model 26.0% 26.5%
Valar Atomics
Market Model 70.0% 69.5%
Atomic Alchemy
Market Model 40.0% 36.5%
Yes
Market Model 53.0% 46.0%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 26.5%
United States
Market Model 69.0% 59.1%
China
Market Model 34.0% 28.6%
Yes
Market Model 23.0% 19.5%
xAI
Market Model 51.0% 48.0%
OpenAI
Market Model 60.0% 62.5%
At least 1000
Market Model 98.0% 97.0%
At least 5000
Market Model 56.0% 61.0%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 99.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2026 | 1.0% | 10.0% | Med | $571,972 | Ask |
| Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 54.0% | 53.0% | Med | $74,553 | Ask |
| When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 16.0% | 15.0% | Med | $47,677 | Ask |
| Best AI in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Gemini | 2.0% | 3.4% | Med | $2,174,474 | Ask |
| What will be the top AI model this month? Top outcome: claude-opus-4-5-20251101 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $2,508,343 | Ask |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? Top outcome: Earbuds/Headphones | 70.0% | 67.5% | Med | $52,760 | Ask |
| AI capability growth before July? Top outcome: At least 1550 score | 52.0% | 52.5% | Med | $73,550 | Ask |
| NASA lands on the moon? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 5.0% | 4.5% | Med | $171,930 | Ask |
| Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027? Yes refers to: Any psychedelic substance for medical use | 28.0% | 30.5% | Med | $77,837 | Ask |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic | 45.0% | 42.9% | Med | $216,916 | Ask |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude | 33.0% | 32.7% | Med | $1,188,360 | Ask |
| Measles cases in 2026? Top outcome: Above 10000 | 27.0% | 30.5% | Med | $405,764 | Ask |
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? Yes refers to: Grants license | 26.0% | 26.5% | Med | $236,097 | Ask |
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? Top outcome: Valar Atomics | 70.0% | 69.5% | Med | $85,620 | Ask |
| Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 53.0% | 46.0% | Med | $84,794 | Ask |
| Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 31.0% | 26.5% | Med | $50,725 | Ask |
| Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Top outcome: United States | 69.0% | 59.1% | Med | $84,720 | Ask |
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 23.0% | 19.5% | Med | $6,452,654 | Ask |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: xAI | 51.0% | 48.0% | Med | $98,148 | Ask |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Top outcome: At least 1000 | 98.0% | 97.0% | Med | $76,083 | Ask |
| When will xAI release Grok 4.2? Yes refers to: Before Apr 21, 2026 | 1.0% | 99.5% | Med | $18,528 | Ask |
Expired Markets (4)
Claude
Market Model 94.0% 90.3%
Gemini
Market Model 7.0% 5.3%
claude-opus-4-6
Market Model 88.0% 83.3%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Market Model 14.0% 12.9%
Gemini
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
Claude
Market Model 98.0% 96.1%
claude-opus-4-6
Market Model 4.0% 2.9%
gemini-3-pro
Market Model 1.0% 5.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best AI this week? Top outcome: Claude | 94.0% | 90.3% | Med | $334,912 | Ask |
| Top AI model this week? Top outcome: claude-opus-4-6 | 88.0% | 83.3% | High | $131,256 | Ask |
| Best AI this week? Top outcome: Gemini | 2.0% | 1.5% | Med | $443,679 | Ask |
| What will be the top AI model this week? Top outcome: claude-opus-4-6 | 4.0% | 2.9% | Med | $264,092 | Ask |
