Above 10
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
Above 5
Market Model 24.0% 14.7%
Elections Markets
Active Markets (14)
Rupert Lowe
Market Model 6.0% 6.0%
Nigel Farage
Market Model 12.0% 16.4%
Ken Paxton
Market Model 71.0% 77.1%
John Cornyn
Market Model 29.0% 22.9%
Talarico vs. Paxton
Market Model 68.0% 71.4%
Talarico vs. Cornyn
Market Model 31.0% 28.6%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 27.1% 28.8%
J.D. Vance
Market Model 37.4% 37.7%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 27.3% 31.9%
Stephen A. Smith
Market Model 1.1% 1.2%
Cornyn beats Talarico
Market Model 39.0% 34.2%
Talarico beats Paxton
Market Model 25.0% 21.9%
Peter Erdo
Market Model 6.0% 11.2%
Pietro Parolin
Market Model 9.0% 22.3%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 31.8%
Hakeem Jeffries
Market Model 79.0% 59.2%
Jim Jordan
Market Model 18.0% 24.1%
Naftali Bennett
Market Model 31.0% 30.6%
Israel Katz
Market Model 14.0% 13.8%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 9.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.1%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 17.0% 19.5%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 18.0% 11.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Apr 1, 2026? Top outcome: Above 10 | 1.0% | 1.1% | High | $572,720 | New |
| Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? Top outcome: Rupert Lowe | 6.0% | 6.0% | High | $457,285 | New |
| Texas Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Ken Paxton | 71.0% | 77.1% | High | $11,623,806 | New |
| 2026 Texas Senate matchup? Top outcome: Talarico vs. Paxton | 68.0% | 71.4% | High | $3,655,621 | New |
| 2028 Republican nominee for President? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 27.1% | 28.8% | High | $25,693,763 | New |
| 2028 Democratic nominee for President? Top outcome: Gavin Newsom | 27.3% | 31.9% | High | $71,900,324 | New |
| Texas Senate: Exact outcome Top outcome: Cornyn beats Talarico | 39.0% | 34.2% | Med | $1,158 | New |
| Who will the next Pope be? Top outcome: Peter Erdo | 6.0% | 11.2% | High | $77,974 | New |
| Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep? Yes refers to: Yes | 43.0% | 31.8% | Med | $32,029 | New |
| Who will be the next Speaker of the House? Top outcome: Hakeem Jeffries | 79.0% | 59.2% | High | $16,077 | New |
| Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel? Top outcome: Naftali Bennett | 31.0% | 30.6% | High | $53,101 | New |
| Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 15.0% | 9.8% | Med | $15,061 | New |
| Will Iran become a democracy in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 8.0% | 5.1% | Med | $117,199 | New |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 17.0% | 19.5% | High | $18,744,212 | New |
