Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Naftali Bennett to be the next new Prime Minister of Israel, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market for Naftali Bennett becoming the next Prime Minister of Israel has been trading in a volatile, sideways pattern. The price has fluctuated within a wide range of 25.0% to 47.0% but has shown no clear long-term upward or downward trend, starting at 33.0% and currently sitting at 31.0%. The most significant price action occurred recently in mid-March 2026, with a sharp 11.0 percentage point drop on March 14, followed by an equally abrupt 11.0 point spike on March 18. This volatility highlights the market's high sensitivity to breaking news regarding the stability of the current government.
The causes for these price swings are directly linked to political developments affecting the probability of early elections. The drop from 38.0% to 27.0% on March 14 was a reaction to the Knesset advancing the 2026 state budget, which significantly decreased the immediate threat of the government collapsing and triggering a snap election. Conversely, the reason for the price rebounding to 38.0% on March 18 is not clearly identified by the available context. Trading volume appears inconsistent across the market's history, with a total of 3,464 contracts traded over 201 data points. This suggests that market activity is sporadic and likely concentrated around key news events, rather than sustained, high-conviction trading.
The price action has established clear technical levels. The 25.0% to 27.0% range has acted as a support floor, where the price has bounced on multiple occasions, including the sharp drop on March 14. The area between 38.0% and the all-time high of 47.0% has served as a significant resistance ceiling. Overall, the chart suggests a market sentiment of deep uncertainty. Traders have been unwilling to push the probability decisively in either direction, instead reacting sharply to short-term political news. The price oscillating between well-defined support and resistance levels indicates a lack of consensus on Bennett's long-term prospects, with his odds perceived as being heavily dependent on the current coalition's stability.
- Netanyahu is the incumbent Prime Minister, currently leading general polls.
- Failure to pass the 2026 budget will trigger snap elections.
- Haredi parties and right-wing blocs have demanding coalition red lines.
- Naftali Bennett is a leading opposition figure with alternative support.
- Domestic protests and regional events influence future voter sentiment.
- Gadi Eisenkot shows lower polling numbers and lacks significant momentum.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naftali Bennett | 31.0% | 30.6% | Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett remains a potential leader for a future government. |
| Israel Katz | 14.0% | 13.8% | Experienced Likud politician Israel Katz holds key ministerial positions, positioning him as a successor. |
| Itamar Ben-Gvir | 7.0% | 7.3% | Itamar Ben-Gvir's hardline stance and growing party support could elevate him. |
| Yariv Levin | 8.0% | 8.2% | Justice Minister Yariv Levin is a prominent Likud figure with significant political influence. |
| Yair Lapid | 12.0% | 12.0% | As former Prime Minister and opposition leader, Yair Lapid remains a strong contender. |
Current Context
Benjamin Netanyahu currently remains Israel's Prime Minister as of March 25, 2026 [^] , [^] . The next Knesset elections are officially scheduled for October 27, 2026 [^], though early elections remain a distinct possibility [^]. This could materialize if the governing coalition fails to pass the 2026 budget by March 31, 2026, or if the coalition dissolves earlier [^].
Recent polls suggest a tight race for parliamentary majority [^] , [^] . As of March 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is projected to secure 26-28 seats [^], [^], [^], [^]. His overall bloc of allied parties is estimated to hold approximately 50-53 seats, falling short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government [^], [^], [^], [^]. The opposition, led by Naftali Bennett's party, is polling at 20-21 seats [^], [^], [^], [^], with its allied parties collectively reaching around 59-60 seats [^], [^], [^], [^].
Prediction markets indicate a preference for Netanyahu to retain power [^] . | Polymarket">[^]. He holds a 48-60% chance of remaining Prime Minister after the next election [^]. Naftali Bennett is considered the primary challenger, with prediction markets giving him a 27-40% chance in head-to-head scenarios [^]. Experts agree there is no clear consensus on a successor, emphasizing the close competition between Netanyahu and Bennett [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Israel Katz
📉 March 19, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 23.0% to 15.0%
What happened: The asserted 8.0 percentage point drop for Israel Katz on March 19, 2026, is not supported by the provided web research or sources, which explicitly state that "No sources confirm a specific '8.0pp drop' for Katz on March 19 as a catalyst for imminent change" [Web research]. On this date, polling data indicated shifts such as Gadi Eisenkot surpassing Naftali Bennett in prime ministerial suitability and Likud strengthening, rather than a significant decline for Israel Katz [^]. Therefore, without substantiation of the price movement itself, identifying a primary driver—including social media activity—is not possible. Social media activity on this date causing such a specific drop for Katz is not evident in the available information.
📈 March 15, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 13.0% to 26.0%
What happened: The available sources do not indicate any social media activity, such as posts from influential figures or viral narratives, that would explain a 13.0 percentage point spike for Israel Katz on March 15, 2026 [1-10]. No traditional news announcements or polling data from around that specific date positioned Katz for an imminent Prime Minister role; instead, existing polls indicate he leads hypothetical post-Netanyahu Likud scenarios but is "not positioned to become PM soon" [^]. Furthermore, web research explicitly attributes recent Likud gains to the Iran conflict, not a specific 13pp Katz spike around March 15. Social media activity was (d) irrelevant in driving this price movement based on the provided information.
Outcome: Naftali Bennett
📈 March 18, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 27.0% to 38.0%
What happened: Based on the provided sources, it is not possible to identify the primary driver for Naftali Bennett's 11.0 percentage point price spike on March 18, 2026. The available information, primarily from late 2024 and early 2025, indicates that Bennett's polling numbers were generally slipping, with Gadi Eisenkot emerging as a stronger challenger to Netanyahu [^]. No social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors from the specified date are present in the provided research to explain this reported movement. Consequently, the cause of this particular price spike cannot be determined from the given information, rendering social media's role (d) irrelevant based on the provided context.
📉 March 14, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 38.0% to 27.0%
What happened: The primary driver of Naftali Bennett's prediction market price drop on March 14, 2026, was the Knesset's advancement and approval of the 2026 state budget on March 13, 2026 [^], [^]. This progress significantly reduced the immediate likelihood of snap elections, which would have been triggered had the budget not passed [^]. Consequently, Bennett's perceived immediate path to becoming the "next new Prime Minister" diminished, leading to a decrease in his market price. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no related posts or viral narratives coinciding with the price movement were found in the provided research.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Naftali Bennett is the first new person to formally assume the office of Prime Minister of Israel after the market's issuance. It resolves to "No" if someone else is the first new Prime Minister, or if the current Prime Minister remains in office until the market's expiration. The market opened on October 24, 2025, and will close early if a new Prime Minister takes office, or otherwise by January 1, 2045. Interim appointments count if formally assumed, and resolution is based on official government announcements, with The New York Times as a secondary source.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naftali Bennett | $0.33 | $0.69 | 31% |
| Israel Katz | $0.19 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Yair Lapid | $0.12 | $0.89 | 12% |
| Gadi Eisenkot | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Yariv Levin | $0.09 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Itamar Ben-Gvir | $0.06 | $0.98 | 7% |
| Benny Gantz | $0.04 | $0.98 | 5% |
| Bezalel Smotrich | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Yair Golan | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Yoav Gallant | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Yossi Cohen | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Israeli legislative elections are slated for October 2026 but could be held earlier if the budget fails by late March 2026, with no new Prime Minister yet elected [^]. Current prediction market odds favor Benjamin Netanyahu at 60-62% to remain or return as PM, followed by Naftali Bennett at 27-30% [^]. Although polls show Netanyahu and Bennett tied in preferred PM matchups, opposition blocs currently lead in seat projections [^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Naftali BennettTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Yoav GallantTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Yariv LevinTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Israel KatzTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Benny GantzTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Yair LapidTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Gadi EisenkotTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Yossi CohenTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
Avigdor LiebermanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Yair GolanTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
- Metric
- —
Itamar Ben-GvirTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
Bezalel SmotrichTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 26, 2026
6. What Are Haredi Parties' Military Draft Red Lines?
| Shas's Condition for Government Stay | No military police arrests of yeshiva students in their homes or yeshivas [^] |
|---|---|
| UTJ's Demand for Exemptions | Full exemptions for yeshiva students from IDF service [^] |
| Netanyahu's Coalition Strategy | Accommodates these Haredi demands to maintain his coalition [^] |
Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) leaders have established specific "red lines" for coalition participation. Shas leader Aryeh Deri explicitly stated that the arrest of even one yeshiva student by military police would prevent Shas from remaining in government [^]. Furthermore, Deri demands an internal coalition agreement on a conscription law by the summer session's start, threatening to withhold votes otherwise, and vows to block the 2026 state budget if a Haredi draft exemption bill is not enacted [^]. Shas also requires retaining control over key ministries, specifically Interior and Religious Services [^]. UTJ leaders, including Goldknopf and Gafni, echo these sentiments, insisting on full exemptions for yeshiva students from IDF service and rejecting any sanctions on draft evaders [^]. They have threatened to exit the coalition, oppose the budget, or engage in Knesset rebellion if an exemption law is not passed, and consider arrests within yeshivas a breach of a red line [^].
These Haredi demands create clear alignments with potential prime ministerial candidates. Benjamin Netanyahu, reliant on Haredi support for his coalition, typically accommodates these demands [^]. He navigates pressures from far-right factions, IDF manpower shortages, and significant public opposition while doing so [^]. In stark contrast, potential challengers like Benny Gantz and Naftali Bennett hold firm stances against Haredi draft exemptions. Gantz has declared a red line against any exemption law passing, indicating his withdrawal from government if such legislation proceeds. Bennett has publicly labeled an exemption bill a "con" and argues that Torah students should serve. Consequently, the Haredi parties' "red lines" strongly favor Netanyahu's continued leadership, given his demonstrated willingness to accommodate their requirements [^].
7. What is Likud Central Committee's alignment on post-election Netanyahu challenge?
| Likud Support for Netanyahu | Approximately 80% (January 2026) [Web Research Results, 6, 7, 8] [^] |
|---|---|
| Support for Israel Katz (successor) | Around 24% [Web Research Results, 6, 7, 8] [^] |
| Netanyahu's PM odds (post-2026) | 43% [Web Research Results] [^] |
Specific voting data on a Likud leadership challenge to Netanyahu is unavailable. There is no publicly available data regarding the voting alignment of the top 40 members of the Likud Central Committee concerning a post-election leadership challenge to Benjamin Netanyahu, especially if he fails to form a 61-seat coalition. The Likud Central Committee, comprising approximately 4,500 members elected in November 2025, does not have a publicly accessible list of its "top 40" members, nor are there targeted polls on this precise scenario [^].
Netanyahu maintains strong support within Likud despite lack of specific challenge data. Despite the absence of specific data on a potential challenge, broader internal Likud polls from January 2026 indicate significant backing for Netanyahu's leadership, with approximately 80% of Likud members supporting him [^]. He currently dominates the party, and there is no active leadership challenge, although factional rivalries do exist [^].
Israel Katz leads as the preferred successor in hypothetical scenarios. In a hypothetical situation where Netanyahu were to step down, Israel Katz emerges as the preferred successor among Likud members, securing approximately 24% support in internal polls [^]. Other prominent figures vying for influence within the party include Dudi Amsalem, Nir Barkat, Eli Cohen, and Miki Zohar [^]. Prediction markets for the next Israeli Prime Minister after the 2026 election show Netanyahu with a 43% chance, while Naftali Bennett has a 29-33% chance.
8. How Do Yisrael Beiteinu's Demands Align with Yesh Atid?
| Core Demand | Universal military or civilian service for all 18-year-olds [^] |
|---|---|
| Service Benefits | 100% for those who serve, 0% for evaders [^] |
| Party Alignment | Significant with Yesh Atid on draft and religion-state [^] |
Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party demands an equal draft and religious reforms. As a condition for joining a national unity government, the party has outlined precise, non-negotiable policy demands, primarily focusing on a comprehensive equal draft law. Key requirements include universal military or civilian service for all 18-year-old citizens, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) solely determining the type of service. Mandatory sanctions are required for non-compliance, and those who complete their service will receive 100% benefits, while evaders will receive 0% [^]. Additional platform demands include implementing a core curriculum in all schools, allowing public transport on Shabbat based on locality, legalizing civil marriage and divorce, and reforming religious councils [^].
These demands align closely with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid platform. Both Yisrael Beiteinu and Yesh Atid support a universal draft and equitable burden-sharing among citizens [^]. Regarding religious affairs, both parties advocate for public transport on Shabbat, civil marriage or union, and broader reforms concerning the relationship between religion and the state [^]. Furthermore, Yesh Atid champions core studies in all schools, even proposing to halt funding for Haredi schools that do not teach a core curriculum [^]. Lieberman's action of sending these policy guidelines to opposition leaders, including Lapid, suggests a potential partnership, explicitly excluding Haredi and Arab parties from consideration [^].
9. What are Ra'am's key policy demands for coalition support?
| Primary Focus | Socioeconomic improvements for Arab Israelis [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Demands | Increased municipal budgets and enhanced anti-crime measures [^] |
| Specific Commitments | Recognition of Bedouin villages and electricity for illegal homes [^] |
Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party prioritizes socioeconomic improvements for Arab Israelis in coalition support. The party is prepared to offer external support or abstain on a confidence vote for a centrist-led coalition, even if it includes right-wing parties, in exchange for specific policy commitments aimed at enhancing socioeconomic conditions for Arab Israelis [^]. Key demands include increased budgets for Arab municipalities and infrastructure development. Additionally, Ra'am seeks strengthened policing and anti-crime measures within Arab communities to address rising crime rates [^]. The party further emphasizes protecting the civil and national rights of Arab citizens [^].
Ra'am also seeks recognition for Bedouin villages and pragmatic political engagement. Further commitments sought by the party involve the recognition of unrecognized Bedouin villages in the Negev, ensuring their connection to state services, and providing electricity connections for illegally constructed Arab homes [^]. While Ra'am maintains "red lines" against far-right parties such as Religious Zionism or Otzma Yehudit, it adopts a pragmatic approach towards more moderate right-wing parties if tangible gains for the Arab sector can be secured [^]. Notably, a freeze on settlement construction is not a stated policy demand for Ra'am's coalition support [^].
10. What Key Demands are Shaping Israel's Budget and Elections?
| Otzma Yehudit Ministry Funding | NIS 2 billion additional for 2025 budget [^] |
|---|---|
| Religious Zionism Defense Budget Control | Between NIS 112 billion and NIS 140 billion [^] |
| Approved Coalition Funds | $1.6 billion, including $715 million for ultra-Orthodox institutions [^] |
Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism present significant demands for budget support. Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party requires the passage of a death penalty bill for terrorists, an additional NIS 2 billion for the National Security Ministry in the 2025 budget [^], and the dismissal of both Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara and the head of Shin Bet. Concurrently, Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism Party is demanding a share of NIS 5 billion in coalition funds specifically allocated for West Bank settlements, with previous plans suggesting approximately $180 million for such purposes. As Finance Minister, Smotrich also oversees the defense budget, which is estimated to be between NIS 112 billion and NIS 140 billion [^], along with responsibilities for taxes and middle-class relief. The cabinet has already approved $1.6 billion in coalition funds, with $715 million designated for ultra-Orthodox institutions [^].
Likud is highly likely to meet demands, avoiding early elections. There is an estimated 65% probability that Likud will agree to these legislative and budgetary demands, thus preventing early elections by the March 31 deadline. This high probability stems from factors such as wartime unity, previous concessions like setting aside the Haredi draft exemption bill to fund the war [^], the prior approval of other coalition funds [^], and the initial passage of the budget's first reading [^]. Furthermore, Ben-Gvir has historically reached agreements despite initial threats of non-compliance [^]. Conversely, a 35% probability exists for early elections, primarily driven by Ben-Gvir's firm position on issues such as the death penalty and dismissals, his past votes against budget proposals, and the tight deadline following the March 24 recess [^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The most immediate catalyst for a shift in Israel's political landscape is the 2026 budget deadline on March 31, 2026. Failure to pass this budget, particularly amid tensions over the Haredi draft, would trigger the dissolution of the Knesset and initiate snap elections around late June 2026. If the budget passes, the next general election is scheduled by October 27, 2026 [^].
Beyond the budget, potential catalysts include regional developments, such as a possible conflict with Iran, which could consolidate support for the incumbent Prime Minister. Conversely, ongoing domestic protests against the current leadership and the enduring legacy of the October 7 attack continue to shape public sentiment and could influence voter behavior in the upcoming elections. While Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party currently leads polls, prediction markets indicate significant odds for Naftali Bennett as well [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2045
- Closes: January 01, 2045
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The most immediate catalyst for a shift in Israel's political landscape is the 2026 budget deadline on March 31, 2026.
- Trigger: Failure to pass this budget, particularly amid tensions over the Haredi draft, would trigger the dissolution of the Knesset and initiate snap elections around late June 2026.
- Trigger: The budget passes, the next general election is scheduled by October 27, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Beyond the budget, potential catalysts include regional developments, such as a possible conflict with Iran, which could consolidate support for the incumbent Prime Minister.
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
