Yes
Market Model 22.0% 20.5%
Growth Markets
Active Markets (15)
Q2 2025
Market Model 1.0% 2.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 6.0% 8.0%
United Kingdom
Market Model 38.0% 36.5%
China
Market Model 16.0% 10.5%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 21.5%
More than $1.2 trillion
Market Model 50.0% 48.5%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 79.0% 77.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 9.0% 8.5%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 8.0% 6.0%
More than 130% of GDP
Market Model 3.0% 5.5%
More than 150% of GDP
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 22.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 69.0% 72.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 86.0% 85.0%
Elon Musk
Market Model 89.0% 86.8%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 5.0% 3.9%
Yes
Market Model 58.0% 59.0%
$40 trillion
Market Model 99.0% 0.0%
$50 trillion
Market Model 56.0% 0.0%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 35.0% 28.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 18.0% 10.0%
At least 1 billion
Market Model 2.0% 5.0%
At least 25 billion
Market Model 1.0% 4.5%
At least $1 trillion
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
At least $500 billion
Market Model 17.0% 18.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22.0% | 20.5% | Med | $56,585 | Ask |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q2 2025 | 1.0% | 2.0% | Med | $428,943 | Ask |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 38.0% | 36.5% | Med | $90,731 | Ask |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 25.0% | 21.5% | Med | $58,868 | Ask |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $1.2 trillion | 50.0% | 48.5% | Med | $45,396 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 9.0% | 8.5% | Med | $144,470 | Ask |
| How much will US debt increase in 2025? Top outcome: More than 130% of GDP | 3.0% | 5.5% | Med | $247,924 | Ask |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 22.0% | 22.5% | Med | $387,218 | Ask |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 69.0% | 72.0% | Med | $270,083 | Ask |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 89.0% | 86.8% | Med | $145,298 | Ask |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 58.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,862 | Ask |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 99.0% | 0.0% | Med | $60,597 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 35.0% | 28.0% | Med | $61,214 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? Top outcome: At least 1 billion | 2.0% | 5.0% | Med | $11,658,168 | Ask |
| How much will the government increase spending in 2025? Top outcome: At least $1 trillion | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $365,355 | Ask |
Expired Markets (2)
2.6 to 3.0
Market Model 4.0% 3.3%
3.1 to 3.5
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Above 3.5%
Market Model 17.0% 16.5%
Above 3.0%
Market Model 36.0% 35.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth in 2025? Top outcome: 2.6 to 3.0 | 4.0% | 3.3% | Med | $2,593,605 | Ask |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2025? Top outcome: Above 3.5% | 17.0% | 16.5% | Med | $3,417,113 | Ask |
