Yes
Market Model 24.0% 24.5%
Growth Markets
Active Markets (16)
At least 250 billion
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
4.1 to 4.5
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
4.6 to 5.0
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 28.0% 27.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 10.0% 11.0%
$40 trillion
Market Model 96.0% 97.5%
$50 trillion
Market Model 52.0% 52.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 80.0% 78.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 86.0% 84.0%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 20.0%
Elon Musk
Market Model 88.0% 87.1%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 3.0% 3.8%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
United Kingdom
Market Model 34.0% 55.0%
China
Market Model 4.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 59.0%
More than $900 Billion
Market Model 83.0% 88.0%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 73.0% 87.0%
Q1 2026
Market Model 14.0% 50.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 9.0% 30.0%
At least 1 billion
Market Model 1.0% 5.0%
At least 25 billion
Market Model 1.0% 4.5%
At least $1 trillion
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
At least $500 billion
Market Model 17.0% 18.0%
More than 130% of GDP
Market Model 6.0% 1.5%
More than 140% of GDP
Market Model 3.0% 0.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 24.0% | 24.5% | Med | $462,943 | New |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 7.0% | 9.0% | Med | $152,669 | New |
| GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 4.1 to 4.5 | 5.0% | 4.5% | High | $64,899 | New |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 28.0% | 27.0% | Med | $61,429 | New |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 96.0% | 97.5% | Med | $61,983 | New |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 80.0% | 78.5% | Med | $343,555 | New |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22.0% | 20.0% | Med | $57,276 | New |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 88.0% | 87.1% | High | $149,740 | New |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | $55,846 | New |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 34.0% | 55.0% | Med | $89,415 | New |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 57.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,854 | New |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $900 Billion | 83.0% | 88.0% | Med | $43,054 | New |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q1 2026 | 14.0% | 50.0% | Med | $408,091 | New |
| How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? Top outcome: At least 1 billion | 1.0% | 5.0% | Med | $11,658,168 | New |
| How much will the government increase spending in 2025? Top outcome: At least $1 trillion | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $365,355 | New |
| How much will US debt increase in 2025? Top outcome: More than 130% of GDP | 6.0% | 1.5% | Med | $178,498 | New |
