$40 trillion
Market Model 99.0% 99.3%
$50 trillion
Market Model 55.0% 64.4%
Growth Markets
Active Markets (14)
Before 2027
Market Model 78.0% 78.3%
Before 2028
Market Model 84.0% 81.9%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 6.0% 2.8%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 13.6%
Elon Musk
Market Model 88.0% 83.4%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 4.0% 3.4%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 24.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
4.1 to 4.5
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
4.6 to 5.0
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 20.0%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
United Kingdom
Market Model 34.0% 55.0%
China
Market Model 4.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 59.0%
More than $900 Billion
Market Model 83.0% 88.0%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 73.0% 87.0%
Q1 2026
Market Model 14.0% 50.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 9.0% 30.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 99.0% | 99.3% | High | $66,703 | New |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 78.0% | 78.3% | High | $394,734 | New |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 10.0% | 5.0% | High | $69,966 | New |
| Will Trump bring back manufacturing? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 11.0% | 13.6% | Med | $18,754 | New |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 88.0% | 83.4% | High | $171,344 | New |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 24.0% | 24.5% | Med | $462,943 | New |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 7.0% | 9.0% | Med | $152,669 | New |
| GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 4.1 to 4.5 | 5.0% | 4.5% | High | $64,899 | New |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22.0% | 20.0% | Med | $57,276 | New |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | $55,846 | New |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 34.0% | 55.0% | Med | $89,415 | New |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 57.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,854 | New |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $900 Billion | 83.0% | 88.0% | Med | $43,054 | New |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q1 2026 | 14.0% | 50.0% | Med | $408,091 | New |
Expired Markets (6)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
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