claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
gemini-3-pro
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
AI Markets
Active Markets (3)
At least 1550 score
Market Model 52.0% 52.5%
At least 1575 score
Market Model 29.0% 32.5%
xAI
Market Model 51.0% 48.0%
OpenAI
Market Model 60.0% 62.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will be the top AI model this month? Top outcome: claude-opus-4-5-20251101 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $2,508,343 | Ask |
| AI capability growth before July? Top outcome: At least 1550 score | 52.0% | 52.5% | Med | $73,550 | Ask |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: xAI | 51.0% | 48.0% | Med | $98,148 | Ask |
Expired Markets (2)
claude-opus-4-6
Market Model 88.0% 83.3%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Market Model 14.0% 12.9%
claude-opus-4-6
Market Model 4.0% 2.9%
gemini-3-pro
Market Model 1.0% 5.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top AI model this week? Top outcome: claude-opus-4-6 | 88.0% | 83.3% | High | $131,256 | Ask |
| What will be the top AI model this week? Top outcome: claude-opus-4-6 | 4.0% | 2.9% | Med | $264,092 | Ask |
