Wisconsin Governor winner? Kalshi
Tom Tiffany
Market Model 24.0% 23.8%
David Crowley
Market Model 77.0% 76.2%
Prediction Markets Research
Octagon provides deep research and analysis on prediction markets, combining real-time market data with advanced AI models to deliver actionable insights on event outcomes, probabilities, and market trends.
Get API Access →Active Markets (1206)
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 0.4% 0.3%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 5.1% 2.5%
Above 2860
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 2900
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 2760
Market Model 0.0% 2.0%
Above 2780
Market Model 0.0% 1.5%
Above 440 tbtu
Market Model 0.0% 0.9%
Above 460 tbtu
Market Model 0.0% 0.7%
Above $26.5 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Above $27 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
SoFi members in fiscal 2026 Kalshi
Above 18.6 million
Market Model 17.0% 14.0%
Above 17.6 million
Market Model 0.0% 21.0%
Above $5.25 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.7%
Above $5.3 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.6%
Above $1.36 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.9%
Above $1.38 billion
Market Model 0.0% 0.8%
Above 10.2 million
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 10.3 million
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 830 million
Market Model 0.0% 2.0%
Above 850 million
Market Model 0.0% 1.5%
Above 220 million
Market Model 0.0% 0.1%
Above 222.5 million
Market Model 0.0% 0.1%
Nu Holdings customers in Q3 Kalshi
Above 142.5 million
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Above 143 million
Market Model 0.0% 10.0%
Above 4.2 million
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 4.25 million
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Natera tests processed in Q3 Kalshi
Above 1025000
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Above 1050000
Market Model 0.0% 0.0%
Above 370000
Market Model 74.0% 63.2%
Above 360000
Market Model 80.0% 77.5%
Above 350000
Market Model 17.0% 11.0%
Above 345000
Market Model 13.0% 12.0%
Above 4850
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Above 4900
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Above 3.7 million
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Above 3.6 million
Market Model 0.0% 1.2%
Above 3.52 million
Market Model 13.0% 6.0%
Above 3.48 million
Market Model 59.0% 41.3%
Above 111 million
Market Model 75.0% 75.4%
Above 110 million
Market Model 71.0% 75.4%
Above 106.5 million
Market Model 47.0% 50.8%
Above 107 million
Market Model 34.0% 38.4%
Above 4950
Market Model 0.0% 0.8%
Above 5025
Market Model 0.0% 0.7%
Above 4675
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 4725
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume |
|---|
Expired Markets (1965)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Clear+ members in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Uber Trips in Q2? Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Tesla production in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Tesla deliveries in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Toast total locations in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Spotify headcount in Q2 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Starbucks total stores in Q3 Kalshi
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume |
|---|
