Aubry Bracco
Market Model 83.0% 72.6%
Jonathan Young
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Prediction Markets Research
Octagon AI provides deep research and analysis on prediction markets, combining real-time market data with advanced AI models to deliver actionable insights on event outcomes, probabilities, and market trends.
Get API Access →Active Markets (141)
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 20.5%
Judy Shelton
Market Model 5.0% 3.8%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 94.0% 86.3%
Before 2026
Market Model 1.0% 10.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 31.0% 68.0%
Exactly 3.3%
Market Model 24.0% 4.3%
Exactly 3.4%
Market Model 21.0% 3.3%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 20.5%
Above 0.0%
Market Model 99.0% 96.0%
Above 0.1%
Market Model 79.0% 76.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 13.0% 10.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 26.0% 22.0%
Before April
Market Model 29.0% 38.5%
Before March
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Exactly -0.1%
Market Model 7.0% 6.5%
Exactly -0.2%
Market Model 9.0% 2.5%
Before June 2026
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
Before March 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Exactly 2.8%
Market Model 46.0% 6.2%
Exactly 2.9%
Market Model 51.0% 6.2%
Cut >25bps
Market Model 6.0% 5.7%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 51.0% 51.0%
Yes
Market Model 54.0% 53.0%
Mobile
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
Player Engagement
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 32.0% 5.0%
Before July
Market Model 9.0% 2.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 16.0% 15.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 6.0% 5.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 6.0% 5.0%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Before July
Market Model 8.0% 6.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 13.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 11.0% 12.5%
Before July 2026
Market Model 4.0% 2.5%
Q2 2025
Market Model 1.0% 2.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 6.0% 8.0%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 77.5%
1 cuts
Market Model 14.0% 12.3%
0 cuts
Market Model 82.0% 80.3%
$5160.0 or above
Market Model 73.0% 56.5%
$4920.0 or above
Market Model 98.0% 89.5%
$67,500 to 67,999.99
Market Model 8.0% 3.5%
$68,000 to 68,499.99
Market Model 9.0% 2.5%
Gemini
Market Model 2.0% 3.4%
Claude
Market Model 97.0% 92.1%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 14.5%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 17.5%
$68,000 or above
Market Model 72.0% 10.0%
$64,500 or above
Market Model 97.0% 49.5%
United Kingdom
Market Model 38.0% 36.5%
China
Market Model 16.0% 10.5%
Above $80,000.00
Market Model 4.0% 1.5%
Above $82,500.00
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
18,999.99 or below
Market Model 18.0% 19.9%
25,500 to 25,999.99
Market Model 5.0% 4.1%
Below $60,000.00
Market Model 4.0% 21.5%
Below $57,500.00
Market Model 4.0% 9.5%
Above $0.12
Market Model 16.0% 9.5%
Above $0.13
Market Model 11.0% 6.5%
Above $2,500.00
Market Model 5.0% 1.5%
Above $2,750.00
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Below $1,750.00
Market Model 6.0% 44.0%
Below $1,500.00
Market Model 5.0% 8.5%
Yes
Market Model 58.0% 56.0%
Above $99,999.99
Market Model 34.0% 33.5%
Above $199,999.99
Market Model 8.0% 7.5%
Above 12
Market Model 5.0% 0.1%
Above 13
Market Model 3.0% 0.1%
Above $110.00
Market Model 6.0% 3.5%
Above $115.00
Market Model 7.0% 3.0%
claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
gemini-3-pro
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 7.5%
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 3.5%
150 or above
Market Model 29.0% 14.0%
100 or above
Market Model 38.0% 29.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 39.0% 38.0%
Before October
Market Model 36.0% 32.5%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 70.0% 53.2%
Citigroup
Market Model 37.0% 53.2%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 1.0% 75.0%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 99.0% 98.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 4.0% 3.4%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 97.0% 94.1%
President
Market Model 45.0% 43.0%
Good Afternoon
Market Model 98.0% 97.5%
At least 50 GWdc
Market Model 24.0% 28.5%
At least 40 GWdc
Market Model 97.0% 96.5%
SoFi
Market Model 28.0% 30.0%
Strategy (MicroStrategy)
Market Model 3.0% 2.5%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 26.5%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 21.5%
Earbuds/Headphones
Market Model 70.0% 67.5%
Clip-on device for clothing
Market Model 41.0% 37.5%
At least $900
Market Model 30.0% 26.5%
At least $800
Market Model 67.0% 66.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 6.0% 5.5%
Palantir
Market Model 14.0% 13.0%
7 or above
Market Model 9.0% 5.0%
6.5 or above
Market Model 9.0% 7.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 13.0% 13.2%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 88.0% 83.3%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 17.5%
At least 1550 score
Market Model 52.0% 52.5%
At least 1575 score
Market Model 29.0% 32.5%
Exactly -0.2%
Market Model 7.0% 4.5%
Exactly -0.1%
Market Model 9.0% 6.0%
Before Jun 30, 2027
Market Model 13.0% 11.5%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 5.5%
Bank of America
Market Model 86.0% 84.0%
Citigroup
Market Model 44.0% 45.0%
Above 160
Market Model 52.0% 47.5%
Above 190
Market Model 11.0% 24.0%
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
Yes
Market Model 72.0% 72.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 17.0% 15.5%
5,900 or below
Market Model 41.0% 40.5%
6,000 or below
Market Model 46.0% 45.5%
7,200 or above
Market Model 70.0% 68.5%
7,800 or above
Market Model 34.0% 29.0%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 29.0%
Disney
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
Netflix
Market Model 19.0% 21.0%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 30.5%
More than $1.2 trillion
Market Model 50.0% 48.5%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 79.0% 77.5%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 19.5%
Above 5%
Market Model 32.0% 31.5%
Above 6%
Market Model 15.0% 15.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 9.0% 8.5%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 8.0% 6.0%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 70.0% 64.5%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 17.0% 16.5%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 2.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 56.0% 53.5%
Paramount
Market Model 59.0% 64.2%
Netflix
Market Model 33.0% 28.4%
Anthropic
Market Model 45.0% 42.9%
Google
Market Model 16.0% 13.2%
Bitcoin (BTC)
Market Model 37.0% 34.0%
Ripple (XRP)
Market Model 26.0% 27.5%
Claude
Market Model 33.0% 32.7%
Gemini
Market Model 40.0% 40.6%
Above 10000
Market Model 27.0% 30.5%
Above 4000
Market Model 69.0% 75.5%
Somali / Somalia / Somalian
Market Model 92.0% 51.5%
Ethereum
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 14.0% 11.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 25.0% 21.5%
Yes
Market Model 26.0% 26.5%
Above 2.95
Market Model 1.0% 86.0%
Above 2.97
Market Model 98.0% 73.0%
7,400 to 7,599.99
Market Model 12.0% 12.1%
7,600 to 7,799.99
Market Model 9.0% 9.2%
Above $1.70
Market Model 17.0% 12.5%
Above $1.80
Market Model 8.0% 8.0%
Epstein Island / Little Saint James
Market Model 5.0% 2.5%
Palestine
Market Model 14.0% 9.5%
Stimulus
Market Model 7.0% 10.0%
Third Term
Market Model 1.0% 10.0%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 9.0%
Yes
Market Model 2.0% 6.5%
Judy Shelton
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Satoshi
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Before March 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Before April 2026
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Below $60,000.00
Market Model 78.0% 80.5%
Below $40,000.00
Market Model 36.0% 36.5%
What a Goal / What a Shot
Market Model 2.0% 24.0%
Heated Rivalry
Market Model 1.0% 7.5%
Above 0
Market Model 94.0% 93.5%
Above 90,000
Market Model 29.0% 23.5%
Above 0.2%
Market Model 56.0% 51.5%
Above 0.3%
Market Model 14.0% 11.5%
Above $6,000.00
Market Model 11.0% 9.5%
Above $5,000.00
Market Model 14.0% 13.5%
Below $2,000.00
Market Model 99.0% 69.5%
Below $1,500.00
Market Model 66.0% 69.5%
Above 2.3%
Market Model 80.0% 82.5%
Above 2.4%
Market Model 40.0% 39.0%
Exactly 3.3%
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 15.0% 14.9%
Yes
Market Model 84.0% 83.5%
More than 130% of GDP
Market Model 3.0% 5.5%
More than 150% of GDP
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
350000 or more
Market Model 19.0% 24.5%
340000 or more
Market Model 28.0% 32.0%
above 870 million
Market Model 1.0% 99.4%
above 850 million
Market Model 1.0% 99.6%
Exactly 0.6%
Market Model 7.0% 12.2%
Exactly 0.2%
Market Model 24.0% 11.8%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 11.5%
Slopadopolous
Market Model 27.0% 32.5%
Pocahontas
Market Model 50.0% 49.5%
SpaceX
Market Model 83.0% 79.5%
Databricks
Market Model 34.0% 24.5%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Exactly 3.2%
Market Model 3.0% 2.3%
Valar Atomics
Market Model 70.0% 69.5%
Atomic Alchemy
Market Model 40.0% 36.5%
Before March
Market Model 5.0% 7.5%
Before June
Market Model 49.0% 37.5%
Yes
Market Model 53.0% 46.0%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 22.5%
Before Mar 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 19.0% 26.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 69.0% 72.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 86.0% 85.0%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 26.5%
Anthropic
Market Model 59.0% 65.1%
OpenAI
Market Model 48.0% 34.9%
Elon Musk
Market Model 89.0% 86.8%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 5.0% 3.9%
United States
Market Model 69.0% 59.1%
China
Market Model 34.0% 28.6%
Above $170.00
Market Model 38.0% 33.0%
Above $160.00
Market Model 39.0% 39.5%
OpenAI
Market Model 17.0% 16.0%
Meta
Market Model 15.0% 9.0%
Yes
Market Model 23.0% 19.5%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 23.0% 20.5%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 7.0% 4.5%
xAI
Market Model 51.0% 48.0%
OpenAI
Market Model 60.0% 62.5%
Yes
Market Model 58.0% 59.0%
$40 trillion
Market Model 99.0% 0.0%
$50 trillion
Market Model 56.0% 0.0%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 35.0% 28.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 18.0% 10.0%
At least 1000
Market Model 98.0% 97.0%
At least 5000
Market Model 56.0% 61.0%
At least 1 billion
Market Model 2.0% 5.0%
At least 25 billion
Market Model 1.0% 4.5%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 99.5%
Subscribe
Market Model 58.0% 53.5%
Feastable
Market Model 90.0% 88.5%
At least $1 trillion
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
At least $500 billion
Market Model 17.0% 18.0%
Above 4.3%
Market Model 69.0% 89.0%
Above 4.4%
Market Model 41.0% 38.5%
Above 270 billion
Market Model 21.0% 20.5%
Above 280 billion
Market Model 10.0% 7.0%
Exactly 4.4%
Market Model 36.0% 32.4%
Exactly 4.5%
Market Model 28.0% 25.1%
Above 90,000
Market Model 31.0% 30.5%
Above 50,000
Market Model 59.0% 58.5%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 99.0%
At least $7 million
Market Model 81.0% 1.0%
At least $6 million
Market Model 94.0% 85.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win Survivor Season 50? Top outcome: Aubry Bracco | 83.0% | 72.6% | High | $4,555,613 | Ask |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22.0% | 20.5% | Med | $56,585 | Ask |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 5.0% | 3.8% | High | $196,269,477 | Ask |
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2026 | 1.0% | 10.0% | Med | $571,972 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 3.3% | 24.0% | 4.3% | Med | $295,967 | Ask |
| Will unemployment in Brazil be below 5.4% in Q1 2026? Yes refers to: Below 5.4% | 21.0% | 20.5% | Med | $155,748 | Ask |
| How much will core PCE increase in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Above 0.0% | 99.0% | 96.0% | Med | $165,663 | Ask |
| Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 13.0% | 10.5% | Med | $40,557 | Ask |
| SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Top outcome: Before April | 29.0% | 38.5% | Med | $432,821 | Ask |
| CPI core month-over-month in May 2026? Top outcome: Exactly -0.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | Med | $420,214 | Ask |
| When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Top outcome: Before June 2026 | 5.0% | 4.5% | Med | $12,732,257 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in May 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.8% | 46.0% | 6.2% | Med | $552,875 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Cut >25bps | 6.0% | 5.7% | Med | $82,285 | Ask |
| Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 54.0% | 53.0% | Med | $74,553 | Ask |
| What will EA say during their next earnings call? Top outcome: Mobile | 2.0% | 1.5% | Med | $6,148,492 | Ask |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 32.0% | 5.0% | Med | $90,276 | Ask |
| When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 16.0% | 15.0% | Med | $47,677 | Ask |
| When will Dogecoin hit $1? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6.0% | 5.0% | Med | $190,463 | Ask |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Top outcome: Before July | 8.0% | 6.0% | Med | $15,200 | Ask |
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 12.5% | Med | $339,938 | Ask |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q2 2025 | 1.0% | 2.0% | Med | $428,943 | Ask |
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 81.0% | 77.5% | Med | $21,805 | Ask |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 1 cuts | 14.0% | 12.3% | Med | $70,398 | Ask |
| Gold price on Feb 27, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $5160.0 or above | 73.0% | 56.5% | Med | $51,000 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price range on Feb 27, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $67,500 to 67,999.99 | 8.0% | 3.5% | Med | $114,299 | Ask |
| Best AI in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Gemini | 2.0% | 3.4% | Med | $2,174,474 | Ask |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 15.0% | 14.5% | Med | $52,395 | Ask |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 21.0% | 17.5% | Med | $221,608 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 27, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $68,000 or above | 72.0% | 10.0% | Med | $769,588 | Ask |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 38.0% | 36.5% | Med | $90,731 | Ask |
| How high will Bitcoin get in February? Top outcome: Above $80,000.00 | 4.0% | 1.5% | Med | $1,578,529 | Ask |
| Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 18,999.99 or below | 18.0% | 19.9% | Med | $559,690 | Ask |
| How low will Bitcoin get in February? Top outcome: Below $60,000.00 | 4.0% | 21.5% | Med | $1,560,394 | Ask |
| How high will Dogecoin get in February? Top outcome: Above $0.12 | 16.0% | 9.5% | Med | $61,663 | Ask |
| How high will Ethereum get in February? Top outcome: Above $2,500.00 | 5.0% | 1.5% | Med | $299,922 | Ask |
| How low will Ethereum get in February? Top outcome: Below $1,750.00 | 6.0% | 44.0% | Med | $327,478 | Ask |
| Will the S&P finish positive this year? Yes refers to: Positive Growth | 58.0% | 56.0% | Med | $219,851 | Ask |
| How high will Bitcoin get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $99,999.99 | 34.0% | 33.5% | Med | $1,973,857 | Ask |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in February 2026? Top outcome: Above 12 | 5.0% | 0.1% | Med | $1,120,834 | Ask |
| How high will Solana get in February? Top outcome: Above $110.00 | 6.0% | 3.5% | Med | $134,273 | Ask |
| What will be the top AI model this month? Top outcome: claude-opus-4-5-20251101 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $2,508,343 | Ask |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.0% | 7.5% | Med | $113,149 | Ask |
| Will Solana end 2026 over $500? Yes refers to: na | 5.0% | 3.5% | Med | $182,427 | Ask |
| Price of Solana by end of 2026? Top outcome: 150 or above | 29.0% | 14.0% | Med | $111,286 | Ask |
| When will Apple release the iPhone 18? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 39.0% | 38.0% | Med | $122,897 | Ask |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Goldman Sachs | 70.0% | 53.2% | Med | $56,192 | Ask |
| Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.75% | 1.0% | 75.0% | Med | $244,870 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Mar 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 4.0% | 3.4% | Med | $13,258,606 | Ask |
| What will Powell say during his March press conference? Top outcome: President | 45.0% | 43.0% | Med | $78,518 | Ask |
| How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025? Top outcome: At least 50 GWdc | 24.0% | 28.5% | Med | $89,348 | Ask |
| Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q1 of 2026? Top outcome: SoFi | 28.0% | 30.0% | Med | $276,730 | Ask |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 27.0% | 26.5% | Med | $133,485 | Ask |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 25.0% | 21.5% | Med | $58,868 | Ask |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? Top outcome: Earbuds/Headphones | 70.0% | 67.5% | Med | $52,760 | Ask |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 30.0% | 26.5% | Med | $88,777 | Ask |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027? Top outcome: Anthropic | 6.0% | 5.5% | Med | $216,518 | Ask |
| USD/BRL high in 2026 Top outcome: 7 or above | 9.0% | 5.0% | Med | $540,925 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 13.0% | 13.2% | Med | $228,029 | Ask |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 19.0% | 17.5% | Med | $73,361 | Ask |
| AI capability growth before July? Top outcome: At least 1550 score | 52.0% | 52.5% | Med | $73,550 | Ask |
| CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly -0.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% | Med | $593,687 | Ask |
| When will Starlink officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 30, 2027 | 13.0% | 11.5% | Med | $90,757 | Ask |
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Bank of America | 86.0% | 84.0% | Med | $575,048 | Ask |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 52.0% | 47.5% | Med | $68,841 | Ask |
| Will Bitcoin be above $250k by 2027? Yes refers to: Above $250000 | 5.0% | 4.5% | Med | $413,810 | Ask |
| Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 72.0% | 72.5% | Med | $69,030 | Ask |
| NASA lands on the moon? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 5.0% | 4.5% | Med | $171,930 | Ask |
| How low will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 5,900 or below | 41.0% | 40.5% | Med | $155,027 | Ask |
| How high will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 7,200 or above | 70.0% | 68.5% | Med | $255,496 | Ask |
| Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 27.0% | 29.0% | Med | $84,973 | Ask |
| 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | $58,696 | Ask | |
| Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027? Yes refers to: Any psychedelic substance for medical use | 28.0% | 30.5% | Med | $77,837 | Ask |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $1.2 trillion | 50.0% | 48.5% | Med | $45,396 | Ask |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 18.0% | 19.5% | Med | $322,028 | Ask |
| How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5% | 32.0% | 31.5% | Med | $293,588 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 9.0% | 8.5% | Med | $144,470 | Ask |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 70.0% | 64.5% | Med | $509,734 | Ask |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 2.5% | Med | $90,319 | Ask |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 59.0% | 64.2% | Med | $1,734,485 | Ask |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic | 45.0% | 42.9% | Med | $216,916 | Ask |
| Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026? Top outcome: Bitcoin (BTC) | 37.0% | 34.0% | Med | $274,094 | Ask |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude | 33.0% | 32.7% | Med | $1,188,360 | Ask |
| Measles cases in 2026? Top outcome: Above 10000 | 27.0% | 30.5% | Med | $405,764 | Ask |
| What will Trump say during the State of the Union? Top outcome: Somali / Somalia / Somalian | 92.0% | 51.5% | Med | $2,618,760 | Ask |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 14.0% | 11.0% | Med | $1,259,704 | Ask |
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? Yes refers to: Grants license | 26.0% | 26.5% | Med | $236,097 | Ask |
| Gas prices in the US in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Above 2.95 | 1.0% | 86.0% | Med | $506,969 | Ask |
| S&P close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 7,400 to 7,599.99 | 12.0% | 12.1% | Med | $881,718 | Ask |
| How high will XRP get in February? Top outcome: Above $1.70 | 17.0% | 12.5% | Med | $123,876 | Ask |
| What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address? Top outcome: Epstein Island / Little Saint James | 5.0% | 2.5% | Med | $604,966 | Ask |
| What will Trump say in February? Top outcome: Stimulus | 7.0% | 10.0% | Med | $110,233 | Ask |
| Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027? Yes refers to: Above $200000 | 9.0% | 9.0% | Med | $3,229,321 | Ask |
| Will Trump say "Bad Bunny" this month? Yes refers to: Bad Bunny | 2.0% | 6.5% | Med | $765,192 | Ask |
| Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 3.0% | 1.0% | Med | $655,527 | Ask |
| When will Bitcoin cross $100k again? Top outcome: Before March 2026 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $1,942,978 | Ask |
| How low will Bitcoin get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $60,000.00 | 78.0% | 80.5% | Med | $671,386 | Ask |
| Announcers at Olympics Men's Ice Hockey: USA vs Canada Top outcome: What a Goal / What a Shot | 2.0% | 24.0% | Med | $126,076 | Ask |
| Jobs numbers in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Above 0 | 94.0% | 93.5% | Med | $93,099 | Ask |
| CPI in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Above 0.2% | 56.0% | 51.5% | Med | $69,805 | Ask |
| How high will Ethereum get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $6,000.00 | 11.0% | 9.5% | Med | $1,096,698 | Ask |
| How low will Ethereum get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $2,000.00 | 99.0% | 69.5% | Med | $171,856 | Ask |
| Inflation in Feb 2026? (CPI YoY) Top outcome: Above 2.3% | 80.0% | 82.5% | Med | $151,048 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $110,908 | Ask |
| Netflix price increase in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 84.0% | 83.5% | Med | $125,213 | Ask |
| How much will US debt increase in 2025? Top outcome: More than 130% of GDP | 3.0% | 5.5% | Med | $247,924 | Ask |
| Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Top outcome: 350000 or more | 19.0% | 24.5% | Med | $289,758 | Ask |
| DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Top outcome: above 870 million | 1.0% | 99.4% | Med | $69,700 | Ask |
| CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0.6% | 7.0% | 12.2% | Med | $200,862 | Ask |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 12.0% | 11.5% | Med | $71,553 | Ask |
| What nicknames will Trump say before April? Top outcome: Slopadopolous | 27.0% | 32.5% | Med | $154,835 | Ask |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year? Top outcome: SpaceX | 83.0% | 79.5% | Med | $681,656 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $1,018,640 | Ask |
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? Top outcome: Valar Atomics | 70.0% | 69.5% | Med | $85,620 | Ask |
| Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros? Top outcome: Before March | 5.0% | 7.5% | Med | $761,691 | Ask |
| Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 53.0% | 46.0% | Med | $84,794 | Ask |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 22.0% | 22.5% | Med | $387,218 | Ask |
| When will Discord officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Mar 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $58,068 | Ask |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 69.0% | 72.0% | Med | $270,083 | Ask |
| Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 31.0% | 26.5% | Med | $50,725 | Ask |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Top outcome: Anthropic | 59.0% | 65.1% | Med | $52,452 | Ask |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 89.0% | 86.8% | Med | $145,298 | Ask |
| Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Top outcome: United States | 69.0% | 59.1% | Med | $84,720 | Ask |
| How high will Solana get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $170.00 | 38.0% | 33.0% | Med | $191,652 | Ask |
| Who will acquire Pinterest this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 17.0% | 16.0% | Med | $66,326 | Ask |
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 23.0% | 19.5% | Med | $6,452,654 | Ask |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 23.0% | 20.5% | Med | $55,513 | Ask |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: xAI | 51.0% | 48.0% | Med | $98,148 | Ask |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 58.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,862 | Ask |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 99.0% | 0.0% | Med | $60,597 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 35.0% | 28.0% | Med | $61,214 | Ask |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Top outcome: At least 1000 | 98.0% | 97.0% | Med | $76,083 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? Top outcome: At least 1 billion | 2.0% | 5.0% | Med | $11,658,168 | Ask |
| When will xAI release Grok 4.2? Yes refers to: Before Apr 21, 2026 | 1.0% | 99.5% | Med | $18,528 | Ask |
| Mention: MrBeast Youtube Video Top outcome: Subscribe | 58.0% | 53.5% | Med | $102,289 | Ask |
| How much will the government increase spending in 2025? Top outcome: At least $1 trillion | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $365,355 | Ask |
| Unemployment in January 2026? Top outcome: Above 4.3% | 69.0% | 89.0% | Med | $474,278 | Ask |
| Coinbase trading volume in Q4? Top outcome: Above 270 billion | 21.0% | 20.5% | Med | $357,769 | Ask |
| Unemployment rate in Jan 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 4.4% | 36.0% | 32.4% | Med | $80,293 | Ask |
| Jobs numbers in Jan 2026? Top outcome: Above 90,000 | 31.0% | 30.5% | Med | $222,024 | Ask |
| More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024? Yes refers to: Up in 2025 | 1.0% | 99.0% | Med | $461,265 | Ask |
| What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator go for at auction? Top outcome: At least $7 million | 81.0% | 1.0% | Med | $499,183 | Ask |
Expired Markets (58)
UConn
Market Model 1.0% 99.8%
St. John's
Market Model 1.0% 0.2%
Barstool
Market Model 73.0% 67.5%
Psycho / Psychopath / Lunatic
Market Model 72.0% 68.0%
Yes
Market Model 85.0% 74.0%
$64,000 to 64,249.99
Market Model 39.0% 25.6%
$63,750 to 63,999.99
Market Model 2.0% 0.8%
$64,000 or above
Market Model 1.0% 51.5%
$64,250 or above
Market Model 55.0% 50.0%
$66,000 or above
Market Model 1.0% 14.0%
$68,000 or above
Market Model 94.0% 2.5%
Trump
Market Model 13.0% 5.0%
Democracy
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
$67,500 or above
Market Model 67.0% 66.0%
$68,000 or above
Market Model 3.0% 2.5%
$68,000 or above
Market Model 27.0% 26.5%
$67,500 or above
Market Model 56.0% 55.0%
Above $2.979
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Above $2.959
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Sleepy Joe
Market Model 1.0% 75.0%
Cookie
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Maintain current rate
Market Model 1.0% 77.8%
Cut 1-10 basis points
Market Model 50.0% 19.8%
$67,500 or above
Market Model 90.0% 27.5%
$67,250 or above
Market Model 99.0% 71.5%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 13.5%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
$67,500 or above
Market Model 19.0% 79.5%
$67,750 or above
Market Model 2.0% 6.5%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Yes
Market Model 99.0% 98.5%
$67,750 or above
Market Model 1.0% 51.1%
$68,000 or above
Market Model 1.0% 50.0%
Josh D'Amaro
Market Model 1.0% 100.0%
Dana Walden
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
2.6 to 3.0
Market Model 4.0% 3.3%
3.1 to 3.5
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Above 3.5%
Market Model 17.0% 16.5%
Above 3.0%
Market Model 36.0% 35.5%
Yes
Market Model 47.0% 9.4%
$67,250 or above
Market Model 71.0% 100.0%
$67,500 or above
Market Model 1.0% 0.0%
Airball / Airballs / Airballed
Market Model 1.0% 99.5%
Buzzer
Market Model 13.0% 12.0%
Frost Bank
Market Model 1.0% 99.5%
Buzzer
Market Model 1.0% 98.5%
Injury / Injured
Market Model 98.0% 97.5%
Buzzer
Market Model 38.0% 37.0%
Housing
Market Model 3.0% 2.0%
Billionaire / Millionaire
Market Model 1.0% 99.9%
$66.00 to 66.99
Market Model 47.0% 28.0%
$65.00 to 65.99
Market Model 22.0% 17.0%
$68,750 to 69,249.99
Market Model 6.0% 4.1%
$69,750 to 70,249.99
Market Model 5.0% 2.1%
$1,950 or above
Market Model 55.0% 75.0%
$2,070 or above
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
6,825 to 6,849.9999
Market Model 13.0% 7.1%
6,800 to 6,824.9999
Market Model 16.0% 7.4%
Claude
Market Model 94.0% 90.3%
Gemini
Market Model 7.0% 5.3%
claude-opus-4-6
Market Model 88.0% 83.3%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Market Model 14.0% 12.9%
$66,750 or above
Market Model 63.0% 61.5%
$67,000 or above
Market Model 20.0% 19.5%
Home / Housing
Market Model 1.0% 95.0%
Bad Bunny
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
$68,750 or above
Market Model 19.0% 15.0%
$69,750 or above
Market Model 7.0% 5.0%
First Time / First Timer
Market Model 1.0% 90.0%
Crowd / Crowded
Market Model 1.0% 96.0%
$64 to 64.99
Market Model 4.0% 0.5%
$63 to 63.99
Market Model 29.0% 1.0%
Yes
Market Model 96.0% 95.0%
6,870 or above
Market Model 30.0% 0.0%
6,845 or above
Market Model 90.0% 100.0%
$69,250 to 69,499.99
Market Model 30.0% 28.3%
$69,500 to 69,749.99
Market Model 19.0% 17.6%
$69,000 or above
Market Model 83.0% 0.0%
$68,750 or above
Market Model 95.0% 100.0%
$2,050 or above
Market Model 88.0% 87.5%
$2,070 or above
Market Model 28.0% 27.0%
$69,000 to 69,499.99
Market Model 24.0% 13.7%
$70,000 to 70,499.99
Market Model 18.0% 9.8%
$70,000 or above
Market Model 30.0% 28.0%
$67,500 or above
Market Model 91.0% 90.5%
$2,100 or above
Market Model 20.0% 17.5%
$2,020 or above
Market Model 89.0% 86.0%
7,125 or above
Market Model 1.0% 0.4%
6,625 to 6,649.9999
Market Model 3.0% 1.2%
6,850 or above
Market Model 66.0% 64.0%
6,925 or above
Market Model 9.0% 7.0%
Billionaire
Market Model 91.0% 89.0%
Epstein
Market Model 25.0% 23.0%
Gemini
Market Model 2.0% 1.5%
Claude
Market Model 98.0% 96.1%
claude-opus-4-6
Market Model 4.0% 2.9%
gemini-3-pro
Market Model 1.0% 5.0%
Above $2.960
Market Model 3.0% 5.0%
Above $2.932
Market Model 49.0% 90.0%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 7.2%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 0.1%
$70,000 or above
Market Model 62.0% 14.5%
$72,000 or above
Market Model 26.0% 6.5%
$2,130 or above
Market Model 30.0% 0.0%
$2,170 or above
Market Model 18.0% 0.0%
$2,500 or above
Market Model 4.0% 1.5%
$2,300 or above
Market Model 9.0% 0.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. John's at UConn Top outcome: UConn | 1.0% | 99.8% | High | $1,955,758 | Ask |
| What will Dave Portnoy say during his Fox News interview? Top outcome: Barstool | 73.0% | 67.5% | Med | $41,559 | Ask |
| BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Yes refers to: Price to beat: $64,209.42 | 85.0% | 74.0% | Med | $115,851 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price range on Feb 24, 2026 at 8pm EST? Top outcome: $64,000 to 64,249.99 | 39.0% | 25.6% | Med | $90,066 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 24, 2026 at 8pm EST? Top outcome: $64,000 or above | 1.0% | 51.5% | Med | $469,947 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 25, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $66,000 or above | 1.0% | 14.0% | Med | $113,179 | Ask |
| What will Gavin Newsom say during his book tour discussion? Top outcome: Trump | 13.0% | 5.0% | Med | $60,800 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 22, 2026 at 12pm EST? Top outcome: $67,500 or above | 67.0% | 66.0% | Med | $61,576 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 22, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $68,000 or above | 27.0% | 26.5% | Med | $382,948 | Ask |
| US gas prices this week Top outcome: Above $2.979 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $461,848 | Ask |
| What will Trump say this week? Top outcome: Sleepy Joe | 1.0% | 75.0% | Med | $275,817 | Ask |
| What will the People's Bank of China do at the February 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Maintain current rate | 1.0% | 77.8% | Med | $55,308 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 22, 2026 at 11am EST? Top outcome: $67,500 or above | 90.0% | 27.5% | Med | $98,639 | Ask |
| BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Yes refers to: Price to beat: $67,420.54 | 14.0% | 13.5% | Med | $60,653 | Ask |
| BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Yes refers to: Price to beat: $67,591.28 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $88,633 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 22, 2026 at 10am EST? Top outcome: $67,500 or above | 19.0% | 79.5% | Med | $131,559 | Ask |
| BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Yes refers to: Price to beat: $67,639.39 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $94,619 | Ask |
| BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Yes refers to: Price to beat: $67,602.94 | 99.0% | 98.5% | Med | $94,518 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 22, 2026 at 9am EST? Top outcome: $67,750 or above | 1.0% | 51.1% | Med | $216,380 | Ask |
| Who will be the next CEO of Disney? Top outcome: Josh D'Amaro | 1.0% | 100.0% | High | $55,833 | Ask |
| GDP growth in 2025? Top outcome: 2.6 to 3.0 | 4.0% | 3.3% | Med | $2,593,605 | Ask |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2025? Top outcome: Above 3.5% | 17.0% | 16.5% | Med | $3,417,113 | Ask |
| BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Yes refers to: Price to beat: $67,263.41 | 47.0% | 9.4% | Med | $55,143 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 19, 2026 at 10pm EST? Top outcome: $67,250 or above | 71.0% | 100.0% | Med | $313,435 | Ask |
| Announcers at Detroit vs New York Professional Basketball Game Top outcome: Airball / Airballs / Airballed | 1.0% | 99.5% | Med | $222,814 | Ask |
| Announcers at Phoenix vs San Antonio Top outcome: Frost Bank | 1.0% | 99.5% | Med | $145,180 | Ask |
| Announcers at Boston vs Golden State Professional Basketball Game Top outcome: Injury / Injured | 98.0% | 97.5% | Med | $69,779 | Ask |
| Mention: Illinois Senate Democratic Primary Debate Top outcome: Housing | 3.0% | 2.0% | Med | $17,700 | Ask |
| WTI oil price on Feb 20, 2026? Top outcome: $66.00 to 66.99 | 47.0% | 28.0% | Med | $58,037 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price range on Feb 20, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $68,750 to 69,249.99 | 6.0% | 4.1% | Med | $245,391 | Ask |
| Ethereum price on Feb 20, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $1,950 or above | 55.0% | 75.0% | Med | $186,700 | Ask |
| S&P price range on Feb 20, 2026 at 4pm EST? Top outcome: 6,825 to 6,849.9999 | 13.0% | 7.1% | Med | $56,909 | Ask |
| Best AI this week? Top outcome: Claude | 94.0% | 90.3% | Med | $334,912 | Ask |
| Top AI model this week? Top outcome: claude-opus-4-6 | 88.0% | 83.3% | High | $131,256 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 19, 2026 at 6pm EST? Top outcome: $66,750 or above | 63.0% | 61.5% | Med | $156,736 | Ask |
| What will Trump say during his Georgia rally? Top outcome: Home / Housing | 1.0% | 95.0% | Med | $1,483,423 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 20, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $68,750 or above | 19.0% | 15.0% | Med | $1,747,997 | Ask |
| Announcers at Olympics Women's Ice Hockey: USA vs Canada Top outcome: First Time / First Timer | 1.0% | 90.0% | Med | $189,013 | Ask |
| WTI oil price on Feb 13, 2026? Top outcome: $64 to 64.99 | 4.0% | 0.5% | Med | $103,769 | Ask |
| BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Yes refers to: Price to beat: $69,002.53 | 96.0% | 95.0% | Med | $57,133 | Ask |
| S&P price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST? Top outcome: 6,870 or above | 30.0% | 0.0% | Med | $59,064 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price range on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST? Top outcome: $69,250 to 69,499.99 | 30.0% | 28.3% | High | $59,173 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST? Top outcome: $69,000 or above | 83.0% | 0.0% | Med | $509,407 | Ask |
| Ethereum price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST? Top outcome: $2,050 or above | 88.0% | 87.5% | Med | $64,972 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price range on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $69,000 to 69,499.99 | 24.0% | 13.7% | High | $518,921 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $70,000 or above | 30.0% | 28.0% | Med | $3,467,644 | Ask |
| Ethereum price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $2,100 or above | 20.0% | 17.5% | Med | $381,838 | Ask |
| S&P price range on Feb 13, 2026 at 4pm EST? Top outcome: 7,125 or above | 1.0% | 0.4% | Med | $151,752 | Ask |
| S&P price on Feb 13, 2026 at 4pm EST? Top outcome: 6,850 or above | 66.0% | 64.0% | Med | $58,466 | Ask |
| What will Bernie say during his Durham rally? Top outcome: Billionaire | 91.0% | 89.0% | Med | $313,557 | Ask |
| Best AI this week? Top outcome: Gemini | 2.0% | 1.5% | Med | $443,679 | Ask |
| What will be the top AI model this week? Top outcome: claude-opus-4-6 | 4.0% | 2.9% | Med | $264,092 | Ask |
| US Gas prices up this week? Top outcome: Above $2.960 | 3.0% | 5.0% | Med | $111,120 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price range on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST? Yes refers to: $67,000 to 67,249.99 | 15.0% | 7.2% | High | $84,823 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST? Yes refers to: $66,750 or above | 57.0% | 0.1% | Med | $719,574 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 5, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $70,000 or above | 62.0% | 14.5% | Med | $737,018 | Ask |
| Ethereum price on Feb 5, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $2,130 or above | 30.0% | 0.0% | Med | $167,215 | Ask |
| Ethereum price on Feb 6, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $2,500 or above | 4.0% | 1.5% | Med | $571,304 | Ask |
