Below $60,000.00
Market Model 72.0% 95.0%
Below $40,000.00
Market Model 32.0% 37.7%
Prediction Markets Research
Octagon AI provides deep research and analysis on prediction markets, combining real-time market data with advanced AI models to deliver actionable insights on event outcomes, probabilities, and market trends.
Get API Access →Active Markets (142)
7 or above
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
6.5 or above
Market Model 10.0% 3.5%
Monterrey
Market Model 47.0% 33.9%
Cruz Azul
Market Model 25.0% 37.9%
Los Angeles D
Market Model 41.0% 56.4%
Kansas City
Market Model 53.0% 43.6%
NC St.
Market Model 30.0% 79.0%
Texas
Market Model 70.0% 21.0%
Stephen F. Austin
Market Model 28.0% 24.0%
Tulsa
Market Model 73.0% 76.0%
Oklahoma St.
Market Model 36.0% 34.9%
Davidson
Market Model 66.0% 65.1%
Katerina Siniakova
Market Model 53.0% 37.8%
Camila Osorio
Market Model 49.0% 62.2%
Olimpia
Market Model 58.0% 63.0%
Luqueno
Market Model 12.0% 10.3%
Miami
Market Model 37.0% 100.0%
Charlotte
Market Model 64.0% 0.0%
Wichita St.
Market Model 76.0% 70.4%
Wyoming
Market Model 26.0% 29.6%
Real Madrid
Market Model 14.0% 98.0%
Manchester City
Market Model 13.0% 0.5%
George Mason scores 10 points first
Market Model 0.0% 16.0%
Liberty scores 10 points first
Market Model 0.0% 84.0%
Darius Acuff Jr.
Market Model 5.0% 5.9%
AJ Dybantsa
Market Model 2.0% 7.7%
Jon Rahm
Market Model 74.0% 74.0%
Thomas Detry
Market Model 33.0% 33.0%
Arthur Gea
Market Model 68.0% 59.0%
Dimitar Kuzmanov
Market Model 31.0% 41.0%
Ella Seidel
Market Model 41.0% 23.0%
Rebeka Masarova
Market Model 59.0% 77.0%
New York Y
Market Model 72.0% 50.0%
Tampa Bay
Market Model 34.0% 50.0%
Ignacio Buse
Market Model 47.0% 59.0%
Coleman Wong
Market Model 53.0% 41.0%
Bodoe/Glimt
Market Model 19.0% 30.9%
Sporting CP
Market Model 64.0% 47.4%
Aleksandar Vukic
Market Model 73.0% 100.0%
Billy Harris
Market Model 26.0% 0.0%
Above 160
Market Model 56.0% 56.0%
Above 190
Market Model 28.0% 28.0%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 29.0% 28.0%
Stephen A. Smith
Market Model 1.0% 0.7%
Deel
Market Model 73.0% 82.3%
Rippling
Market Model 25.0% 17.7%
Before 2027
Market Model 15.0% 2.5%
Before July 2026
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
Scottie Scheffler
Market Model 57.0% 62.0%
Tom Kim
Market Model 5.0% 5.0%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 17.0% 19.5%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 18.0% 11.3%
350000 or more
Market Model 55.0% 30.0%
340000 or more
Market Model 80.0% 35.0%
Toronto
Market Model 64.0% 63.5%
Phoenix
Market Model 37.0% 36.5%
Low Energy
Market Model 50.0% 36.5%
Whack Job / Wack Job
Market Model 46.0% 54.0%
Bryson DeChambeau
Market Model 78.0% 31.5%
Jon Rahm
Market Model 77.0% 75.0%
The Fate of Ophelia
Market Model 92.0% 95.0%
Man I Need
Market Model 82.0% 85.0%
Addison Rae
Market Model 20.0% 10.0%
Olivia Holt
Market Model 20.0% 38.0%
Lux
Market Model 59.0% 56.5%
Arirang
Market Model 32.0% 28.0%
Buffalo Sabres
Market Model 15.0% 13.5%
Florida Panthers
Market Model 2.0% 0.5%
Yes
Market Model 23.0% 20.5%
Above 0.0%
Market Model 90.0% 95.0%
Above 0.1%
Market Model 85.0% 85.0%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 54.0% 68.0%
5,900 or below
Market Model 50.0% 52.0%
6,000 or below
Market Model 55.0% 53.0%
Cut >25bps
Market Model 12.0% 11.6%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 36.0% 28.0%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 5.0% 1.2%
Exactly 3.2%
Market Model 9.0% 6.5%
Exactly 0.6%
Market Model 15.0% 4.0%
Exactly 0.2%
Market Model 18.0% 35.0%
Yes
Market Model 76.0% 81.0%
Exactly 3.3%
Market Model 5.0% 2.3%
Exactly 3.4%
Market Model 5.0% 2.3%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 8.5%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 24.5%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 63.0% 65.0%
Citigroup
Market Model 39.0% 40.0%
Jon Rahm beats Bryson DeChambeau
Market Model 96.0% 82.0%
Bryson DeChambeau beats Jon Rahm
Market Model 5.0% 18.0%
Earbuds/Headphones
Market Model 68.0% 65.5%
Clip-on device for clothing
Market Model 30.0% 32.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 9.0% 10.0%
Palantir
Market Model 19.0% 15.5%
Joaquin Niemann beats Sergio Garcia
Market Model 40.0% 62.5%
Sergio Garcia beats Joaquin Niemann
Market Model 76.0% 37.5%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 21.5%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 24.5%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 16.0% 85.0%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 3.0% 15.0%
At least $900
Market Model 29.0% 15.0%
At least $800
Market Model 61.0% 30.0%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
At least 3%
Market Model 73.0% 73.0%
At least 3.5%
Market Model 37.0% 36.5%
United States
Market Model 69.0% 59.9%
China
Market Model 37.0% 31.3%
xAI
Market Model 54.0% 53.5%
OpenAI
Market Model 61.0% 60.0%
Above 5%
Market Model 46.0% 36.5%
Above 6%
Market Model 24.0% 17.0%
4.1 to 4.5
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
4.6 to 5.0
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 71.2% 86.1%
Citigroup
Market Model 87.0% 86.5%
Bank of America
Market Model 87.0% 90.0%
Before Jun 30, 2027
Market Model 14.0% 83.0%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 11.0% 79.0%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 28.0% 27.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 10.0% 11.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 51.0% 47.5%
OpenAI
Market Model 60.0% 58.0%
$40 trillion
Market Model 96.0% 97.5%
$50 trillion
Market Model 52.0% 52.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 80.0% 78.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 86.0% 84.0%
At least 1000
Market Model 98.0% 25.0%
At least 5000
Market Model 44.0% 5.0%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 20.0%
Yes
Market Model 30.0% 31.0%
Elon Musk
Market Model 88.0% 87.1%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 3.0% 3.8%
Paramount
Market Model 81.0% 74.0%
Netflix
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 37.0% 95.0%
Before October
Market Model 35.0% 94.0%
Colorado Avalanche
Market Model 36.0% 34.5%
Minnesota Wild
Market Model 11.0% 10.0%
Ken Paxton
Market Model 85.0% 89.1%
John Cornyn
Market Model 14.0% 10.9%
Aubry Bracco
Market Model 82.0% 72.6%
Jonathan Young
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Judy Shelton
Market Model 5.0% 3.8%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 94.0% 86.3%
Before 2028
Market Model 27.0% 68.0%
Before 2030
Market Model 48.0% 78.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 15.0% 4.5%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 86.0% 92.0%
Below $1,500.00
Market Model 63.0% 68.5%
Below $1,250.00
Market Model 42.0% 49.5%
OpenAI
Market Model 14.0% 16.0%
Meta
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 5.0% 75.0%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 22.0% 78.0%
At least 50 GWdc
Market Model 5.0% 70.0%
At least 40 GWdc
Market Model 97.0% 99.0%
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 4.5%
Yes
Market Model 80.0% 83.5%
150 or above
Market Model 23.0% 23.0%
100 or above
Market Model 49.0% 47.0%
Before April 2026
Market Model 2.0% 25.0%
Before March 2026
Market Model 1.0% 10.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 49.0% 37.2%
Google
Market Model 11.0% 25.0%
Valar Atomics
Market Model 69.0% 3.0%
Atomic Alchemy
Market Model 59.0% 3.0%
Above $6,000.00
Market Model 8.0% 18.0%
Above $5,000.00
Market Model 13.0% 25.0%
1 cuts
Market Model 12.0% 11.1%
0 cuts
Market Model 77.0% 80.9%
Yes
Market Model 66.0% 46.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 6.3%
Above 10000
Market Model 23.0% 31.5%
Above 4000
Market Model 75.0% 76.0%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 16.0% 11.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 23.0% 21.5%
At least 1550 score
Market Model 40.0% 56.0%
At least 1575 score
Market Model 25.0% 31.5%
United Kingdom
Market Model 34.0% 55.0%
China
Market Model 4.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 55.0% 65.5%
Yes
Market Model 84.0% 72.0%
Above $99,999.99
Market Model 38.0% 85.0%
Above $199,999.99
Market Model 8.0% 15.0%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 18.5%
Yes
Market Model 23.0% 27.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 5.0% 6.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 16.0% 12.5%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 9.0%
Above $170.00
Market Model 26.0% 65.0%
Above $160.00
Market Model 32.0% 70.0%
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 8.8%
18,999.99 or below
Market Model 17.0% 19.2%
25,500 to 25,999.99
Market Model 7.0% 4.8%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 4.5%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 38.0% 43.5%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 8.5%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 59.0%
Disney
Market Model 13.0% 28.0%
Netflix
Market Model 17.0% 24.0%
More than $900 Billion
Market Model 83.0% 88.0%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 73.0% 87.0%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 19.5%
SpaceX
Market Model 92.0% 80.0%
Databricks
Market Model 23.0% 19.0%
Yes
Market Model 33.0% 34.5%
Before July
Market Model 5.0% 6.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 26.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 8.0% 1.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 20.0% 23.5%
Before June 2026
Market Model 6.0% 30.2%
Before April 2026
Market Model 1.0% 8.6%
Yes
Market Model 55.0% 55.0%
Mobile
Market Model 2.0% 0.3%
Player Engagement
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 32.0% 20.0%
Before July
Market Model 8.0% 8.0%
Q1 2026
Market Model 14.0% 50.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 9.0% 30.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 15.0% 2.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 8.0% 0.1%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 3.0% 2.5%
Trump
Market Model 7.0% 8.5%
President
Market Model 27.0% 42.5%
At least 1 billion
Market Model 1.0% 5.0%
At least 25 billion
Market Model 1.0% 4.5%
Yes
Market Model 99.0% 99.5%
above 870 million
Market Model 97.0% 99.5%
above 850 million
Market Model 99.0% 99.5%
Before April
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
Before May
Market Model 68.0% 50.0%
Bitcoin (BTC)
Market Model 36.0% 63.7%
Ripple (XRP)
Market Model 28.0% 23.5%
Claude
Market Model 41.0% 32.5%
ChatGPT
Market Model 20.0% 13.3%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 22.5%
7,400 to 7,599.99
Market Model 11.0% 11.9%
7,600 to 7,799.99
Market Model 10.0% 9.0%
7,200 or above
Market Model 62.0% 64.5%
7,600 or above
Market Model 34.0% 39.0%
At least $1 trillion
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
At least $500 billion
Market Model 17.0% 18.0%
More than 130% of GDP
Market Model 6.0% 1.5%
More than 140% of GDP
Market Model 3.0% 0.5%
SoFi
Market Model 5.0% 42.0%
Vertiv Holdings
Market Model 99.0% 66.0%
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 9.5%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
At least $7 million
Market Model 81.0% 1.0%
At least $6 million
Market Model 91.0% 85.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How low will Bitcoin get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $60,000.00 | 72.0% | 95.0% | Med | $1,883,690 | New |
| USD/BRL high in 2026 Top outcome: 7 or above | 1.0% | 1.0% | Med | $542,533 | New |
| Cruz Azul vs Monterrey Top outcome: Monterrey | 47.0% | 33.9% | High | $382,486 | New |
| Los Angeles D vs Kansas City Top outcome: Los Angeles D | 41.0% | 56.4% | High | $120,501 | New |
| First Four: Texas vs NC St. Top outcome: NC St. | 30.0% | 79.0% | High | $4,673,463 | New |
| Stephen F. Austin at Tulsa Top outcome: Stephen F. Austin | 28.0% | 24.0% | High | $216,377 | New |
| Davidson at Oklahoma St. Top outcome: Oklahoma St. | 36.0% | 34.9% | High | $871,238 | New |
| Siniakova vs Osorio Top outcome: Katerina Siniakova | 53.0% | 37.8% | High | $50,727 | New |
| Olimpia vs Luqueno Top outcome: Olimpia | 58.0% | 63.0% | High | $30,748 | New |
| Miami at Charlotte Top outcome: Miami | 37.0% | 100.0% | High | $2,405,820 | New |
| Wyoming at Wichita St. Top outcome: Wichita St. | 76.0% | 70.4% | High | $413,378 | New |
| Manchester City vs Real Madrid Top outcome: Real Madrid | 14.0% | 98.0% | High | $10,032,453 | New |
| Liberty vs George Mason: First to Reach 10 Points Top outcome: George Mason scores 10 points first | 0.0% | 16.0% | High | $0 | New |
| Men's College Basketball Tournament Most Outstanding Player Top outcome: Darius Acuff Jr. | 5.0% | 5.9% | High | $19,965 | New |
| LIV Golf South Africa Top 10 Finisher Top outcome: Jon Rahm | 74.0% | 74.0% | Med | $8,999 | New |
| Kuzmanov vs Gea Top outcome: Arthur Gea | 68.0% | 59.0% | High | $401,194 | New |
| Seidel vs Masarova Top outcome: Ella Seidel | 41.0% | 23.0% | High | $416,123 | New |
| New York Y vs Tampa Bay Top outcome: New York Y | 72.0% | 50.0% | Med | $150,661 | New |
| Buse vs Wong Top outcome: Ignacio Buse | 47.0% | 59.0% | High | $714,135 | New |
| Sporting CP vs Bodoe/Glimt Top outcome: Bodoe/Glimt | 19.0% | 30.9% | High | $1,701,092 | New |
| Vukic vs Harris Top outcome: Aleksandar Vukic | 73.0% | 100.0% | High | $891,683 | New |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 56.0% | 56.0% | Med | $90,305 | New |
| 2028 Democratic nominee for President? Top outcome: Gavin Newsom | 29.0% | 28.0% | High | $61,880,096 | New |
| Will Deel or Rippling IPO first? Top outcome: Deel | 73.0% | 82.3% | High | $4,789 | New |
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 15.0% | 2.5% | Med | $1,203,085 | New |
| Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026? Top outcome: Scottie Scheffler | 57.0% | 62.0% | Med | $298,232 | New |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 17.0% | 19.5% | High | $18,744,212 | New |
| Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Top outcome: 350000 or more | 55.0% | 30.0% | Med | $442,714 | New |
| Phoenix at Toronto Top outcome: Toronto | 64.0% | 63.5% | High | $0 | New |
| What nicknames will Trump say before April? Top outcome: Low Energy | 50.0% | 36.5% | Med | $0 | New |
| LIV Golf Singapore Top 5 Finisher Top outcome: Bryson DeChambeau | 78.0% | 31.5% | Med | $0 | New |
| 2026 Grammy nominations for Song of the Year? Top outcome: The Fate of Ophelia | 92.0% | 95.0% | Med | $0 | New |
| Who will play Britney Spears in the Jon M. Chu–directed biopic? Top outcome: Addison Rae | 20.0% | 10.0% | Med | $1,707 | New |
| 2026 Grammy nominations for Album of the Year? Top outcome: Lux | 59.0% | 56.5% | Med | $1,341 | New |
| Eastern Conference Finals Winner? Top outcome: Buffalo Sabres | 15.0% | 13.5% | High | $972,208 | New |
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? Yes refers to: Grants license | 23.0% | 20.5% | Med | $348,996 | New |
| How much will core PCE increase in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Above 0.0% | 90.0% | 95.0% | Med | $167,316 | New |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $116,636 | New |
| How low will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 5,900 or below | 50.0% | 52.0% | Med | $245,278 | New |
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Cut >25bps | 12.0% | 11.6% | High | $167,169 | New |
| CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.3% | 5.0% | 1.2% | High | $1,022,794 | New |
| CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0.6% | 15.0% | 4.0% | High | $204,761 | New |
| Netflix price increase in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 76.0% | 81.0% | Med | $144,574 | New |
| CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 3.3% | 5.0% | 2.3% | High | $298,090 | New |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 11.0% | 8.5% | Med | $76,790 | New |
| Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027? Yes refers to: Any psychedelic substance for medical use | 24.0% | 24.5% | Med | $89,594 | New |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Goldman Sachs | 63.0% | 65.0% | Med | $57,302 | New |
| Head-to-Head Matchup: Rahm vs DeChambeau Top outcome: Jon Rahm beats Bryson DeChambeau | 96.0% | 82.0% | High | $1,686 | New |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? Top outcome: Earbuds/Headphones | 68.0% | 65.5% | Med | $56,957 | New |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027? Top outcome: Anthropic | 9.0% | 10.0% | Med | $248,806 | New |
| Head-to-Head Matchup: Niemann vs Garcia Top outcome: Joaquin Niemann beats Sergio Garcia | 40.0% | 62.5% | High | $1,223 | New |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 21.0% | 21.5% | Med | $711,678 | New |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 24.0% | 24.5% | Med | $462,943 | New |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 16.0% | 85.0% | Med | $58,871 | New |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 29.0% | 15.0% | Med | $96,385 | New |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 7.0% | 9.0% | Med | $152,669 | New |
| How high will inflation get this year? Top outcome: At least 3% | 73.0% | 73.0% | Med | $61,885 | New |
| Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Top outcome: United States | 69.0% | 59.9% | Med | $91,501 | New |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: xAI | 54.0% | 53.5% | Med | $842,732 | New |
| How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5% | 46.0% | 36.5% | Med | $333,505 | New |
| GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 4.1 to 4.5 | 5.0% | 4.5% | High | $64,899 | New |
| More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 71.2% | 86.1% | Med | $229,780 | New |
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Citigroup | 87.0% | 86.5% | Med | $647,231 | New |
| When will Starlink officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 30, 2027 | 14.0% | 83.0% | Med | $112,820 | New |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 28.0% | 27.0% | Med | $61,429 | New |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Top outcome: Anthropic | 51.0% | 47.5% | Med | $69,295 | New |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 96.0% | 97.5% | Med | $61,983 | New |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 80.0% | 78.5% | Med | $343,555 | New |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Top outcome: At least 1000 | 98.0% | 25.0% | Med | $110,847 | New |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22.0% | 20.0% | Med | $57,276 | New |
| Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 30.0% | 31.0% | Med | $52,761 | New |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 88.0% | 87.1% | High | $149,740 | New |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 81.0% | 74.0% | Med | $2,631,225 | New |
| When will Apple release the iPhone 18? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 37.0% | 95.0% | Med | $153,528 | New |
| Western Conference Finals Winner? Top outcome: Colorado Avalanche | 36.0% | 34.5% | High | $1,062,142 | New |
| Texas Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Ken Paxton | 85.0% | 89.1% | High | $2,352,943 | New |
| Who will win Survivor Season 50? Top outcome: Aubry Bracco | 82.0% | 72.6% | High | $4,555,613 | New |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 5.0% | 3.8% | High | $196,269,477 | New |
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 27.0% | 68.0% | Med | $571,972 | New |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 15.0% | 4.5% | Med | $201,833 | New |
| How low will Ethereum get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $1,500.00 | 63.0% | 68.5% | Med | $171,855 | New |
| Who will acquire Pinterest this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 14.0% | 16.0% | Med | $66,300 | New |
| When will Discord officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 5.0% | 75.0% | Med | $58,063 | New |
| How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025? Top outcome: At least 50 GWdc | 5.0% | 70.0% | Med | $84,580 | New |
| Will Solana end 2026 over $500? Yes refers to: na | 6.0% | 4.5% | Med | $181,012 | New |
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 80.0% | 83.5% | Med | $20,385 | New |
| Price of Solana by end of 2026? Top outcome: 150 or above | 23.0% | 23.0% | Med | $106,319 | New |
| When will Bitcoin cross $100k again? Top outcome: Before April 2026 | 2.0% | 25.0% | Med | $1,938,279 | New |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic | 49.0% | 37.2% | Med | $216,897 | New |
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? Top outcome: Valar Atomics | 69.0% | 3.0% | Med | $85,077 | New |
| How high will Ethereum get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $6,000.00 | 8.0% | 18.0% | Med | $1,096,684 | New |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 1 cuts | 12.0% | 11.1% | Med | $67,451 | New |
| Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 66.0% | 46.5% | Med | $84,553 | New |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 9.0% | 6.3% | Med | $52,315 | New |
| Measles cases in 2026? Top outcome: Above 10000 | 23.0% | 31.5% | Med | $405,394 | New |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | $55,846 | New |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 16.0% | 11.0% | Med | $1,258,867 | New |
| AI capability growth before July? Top outcome: At least 1550 score | 40.0% | 56.0% | Med | $70,699 | New |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 34.0% | 55.0% | Med | $89,415 | New |
| Will the S&P finish positive this year? Yes refers to: Positive Growth | 55.0% | 65.5% | Med | $211,755 | New |
| Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 84.0% | 72.0% | Med | $67,649 | New |
| How high will Bitcoin get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $99,999.99 | 38.0% | 85.0% | Med | $1,897,192 | New |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 27.0% | 18.5% | Med | $72,743 | New |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 23.0% | 27.0% | Med | $132,837 | New |
| NASA lands on the moon? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 5.0% | 6.5% | Med | $164,960 | New |
| Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027? Yes refers to: Above $200000 | 10.0% | 9.0% | Med | $3,226,453 | New |
| How high will Solana get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $170.00 | 26.0% | 65.0% | Med | $191,652 | New |
| Will Bitcoin be above $250k by 2027? Yes refers to: Above $250000 | 6.0% | 8.8% | Med | $396,970 | New |
| Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 18,999.99 or below | 17.0% | 19.2% | Med | $514,992 | New |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 4.5% | Med | $492,938 | New |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.0% | 8.5% | Med | $108,581 | New |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 57.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,854 | New |
| 13.0% | 28.0% | Med | $56,503 | New | |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $900 Billion | 83.0% | 88.0% | Med | $43,054 | New |
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 19.0% | 19.5% | Med | $6,438,777 | New |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year? Top outcome: SpaceX | 92.0% | 80.0% | Med | $681,424 | New |
| Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 33.0% | 34.5% | Med | $81,228 | New |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Top outcome: Before July | 5.0% | 6.5% | Med | $12,539 | New |
| Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 8.0% | 1.6% | Med | $40,031 | New |
| When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Top outcome: Before June 2026 | 6.0% | 30.2% | Med | $11,864,120 | New |
| Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 55.0% | 55.0% | Med | $73,763 | New |
| What will EA say during their next earnings call? Top outcome: Mobile | 2.0% | 0.3% | Med | $5,770,836 | New |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 32.0% | 20.0% | Med | $88,753 | New |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q1 2026 | 14.0% | 50.0% | Med | $408,091 | New |
| When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 15.0% | 2.0% | Med | $46,462 | New |
| When will Dogecoin hit $1? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.0% | 4.5% | Med | $184,132 | New |
| What will Powell say during his March press conference? Top outcome: Trump | 7.0% | 8.5% | Med | $54,276 | New |
| How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? Top outcome: At least 1 billion | 1.0% | 5.0% | Med | $11,658,168 | New |
| When will xAI release Grok 4.2? Yes refers to: Before Apr 21, 2026 | 99.0% | 99.5% | Med | $18,528 | New |
| DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Top outcome: above 870 million | 97.0% | 99.5% | Med | $67,904 | New |
| SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Top outcome: Before April | 7.0% | 2.0% | Med | $309,200 | New |
| Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026? Top outcome: Bitcoin (BTC) | 36.0% | 63.7% | Med | $267,766 | New |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude | 41.0% | 32.5% | Med | $1,135,017 | New |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 22.5% | Med | $213,169 | New |
| S&P close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 7,400 to 7,599.99 | 11.0% | 11.9% | Med | $826,748 | New |
| How high will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 7,200 or above | 62.0% | 64.5% | Med | $241,849 | New |
| How much will the government increase spending in 2025? Top outcome: At least $1 trillion | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $365,355 | New |
| How much will US debt increase in 2025? Top outcome: More than 130% of GDP | 6.0% | 1.5% | Med | $178,498 | New |
| Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q1 of 2026? Top outcome: SoFi | 5.0% | 42.0% | Med | $297,831 | New |
| Unemployment in January 2026? Yes refers to: Above 4.7% | 4.0% | 9.5% | Med | $474,278 | New |
| Unemployment rate in Jan 2026? Yes refers to: Exactly 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $80,293 | New |
| What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator go for at auction? Top outcome: At least $7 million | 81.0% | 1.0% | Med | $499,183 | New |
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| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | $17,311 | New | |
| — | — | High | $3,709,181 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $2,106,410 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $328,601 | New | |
| — | — | High | $21,119 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $651,472 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $3,299,685 | New | |
| — | — | High | $920,132 | New | |
| — | — | High | $1,955,758 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $41,559 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $69,788 | New | |
| — | — | High | $55,833 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $2,593,605 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $3,417,113 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $55,143 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $313,435 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $222,814 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $145,180 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $69,779 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $17,700 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $58,037 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $245,391 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $186,700 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $56,909 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $334,912 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $242,507 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $106,085 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $395,527 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $1,626,854 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $736,763 | New | |
| — | — | High | $2,193,012 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $1,254,451 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $1,065,340 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $239,714 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $201,132 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $102,474 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $114,244 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $469,075 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $712,853 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $503,843 | New | |
| — | — | High | $11,022,727 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $102,289 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $226,656 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $103,769 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $57,133 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $59,064 | New | |
| — | — | High | $59,173 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $509,407 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $64,972 | New | |
| — | — | High | $518,921 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $3,467,644 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $151,752 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $58,466 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $313,557 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $443,679 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $264,092 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $111,120 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $357,769 | New | |
| — | — | High | $84,823 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $719,574 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $737,018 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $167,215 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $571,304 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $364,706 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $461,265 | New | |
| — | — | Med | $61,790 | New |
