Before March 2026
Market Model 1% 50%
Before June 2026
Market Model 8% 1.1%
Prediction Markets Research
Octagon AI provides deep research and analysis on prediction markets, combining real-time market data with advanced AI models to deliver actionable insights on event outcomes, probabilities, and market trends.
Get API Access →Active Markets (92)
Above 3.75%
Market Model 3% 2%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 99% 94.7%
Above 4.3%
Market Model 69% 89%
Above 4.4%
Market Model 41% 38.5%
Valar Atomics
Market Model 69% 93.8%
Atomic Alchemy
Market Model 36% 35.5%
Above 270 billion
Market Model 21% 20.5%
Above 280 billion
Market Model 10% 7%
Yes
Market Model 58% 14.7%
Before 2028
Market Model 26% 70.8%
Before 2030
Market Model 41% 82.6%
Before July
Market Model 7% 1.9%
Before 2027
Market Model 18% 16%
Before 2027
Market Model 14% 1.7%
Before 2028
Market Model 24% 22.5%
Mobile
Market Model 2% 10.1%
Live Service
Market Model 2% 1.1%
Before 2027
Market Model 38% 37.5%
Before July
Market Model 16% 13.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 12% 11.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 6% 5.7%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 5% 4.5%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 10% 1.4%
Above 3.5%
Market Model 47% 45.5%
Above 1.0%
Market Model 1% 98.4%
Exactly 4.4%
Market Model 36% 32.4%
Exactly 4.5%
Market Model 28% 25.1%
Above 90,000
Market Model 31% 30.5%
Above 50,000
Market Model 59% 58.5%
$2,500 or above
Market Model 4% 1.5%
$2,300 or above
Market Model 9% 9%
Crypto / Bitcoin
Market Model 39% 24.8%
Somali / Somalia / Somalian
Market Model 54% 53%
Below $70,000.00
Market Model 1% 90%
Below $65,000.00
Market Model 60% 94.2%
Above $2,500.00
Market Model 23% 33.5%
Above $2,750.00
Market Model 16% 5.8%
Yes
Market Model 1% 99%
Barack Hussein Obama
Market Model 1% 99.5%
Epstein
Market Model 1% 99.8%
Marco / Rubio
Market Model 65% 63.5%
Witkoff
Market Model 49% 47.5%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 14% 9.4%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 90% 87.5%
At least 1 billion
Market Model 5% 3.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 2% 2.7%
At least 50 GWdc
Market Model 28% 27%
At least 40 GWdc
Market Model 93% 90.5%
Slopadopolous
Market Model 64% 63.5%
Pocahontas
Market Model 75% 62.4%
At least $500 billion
Market Model 28% 71.7%
At least $1 trillion
Market Model 4% 10.1%
More than 130% of GDP
Market Model 7% 4.5%
More than 140% of GDP
Market Model 4% 2.6%
350000 or more
Market Model 42% 17%
340000 or more
Market Model 62% 13.9%
SoFi
Market Model 56% 52.5%
Strategy (MicroStrategy)
Market Model 4% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 96% 86.3%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 78% 77.1%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 19% 16.9%
Before April
Market Model 57% 57%
Before March
Market Model 1% 18%
Before March
Market Model 9% 22.2%
Before December
Market Model 28% 26.4%
Anthropic
Market Model 59% 52.9%
Google
Market Model 12% 11.4%
Bitcoin (BTC)
Market Model 35% 62.5%
Solana (SOL)
Market Model 31% 37.5%
Yes
Market Model 49% 48%
Gemini
Market Model 48% 47.1%
ChatGPT
Market Model 14% 13.3%
Above 4000
Market Model 80% 98%
Above 750
Market Model 1% 99.9%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 9% 13.7%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 24% 21.7%
Above 160
Market Model 65% 63%
Above 170
Market Model 56% 56.5%
Yes
Market Model 34% 39%
Yes
Market Model 27% 48.9%
United Kingdom
Market Model 47% 30.2%
China
Market Model 12% 16.9%
7,400 to 7,599.99
Market Model 12% 9.2%
7,600 to 7,799.99
Market Model 13% 12.9%
18,999.99 or below
Market Model 16% 23.4%
25,500 to 25,999.99
Market Model 5% 2.7%
Yes
Market Model 65% 44.4%
Above $199999.99
Market Model 9% 8.5%
Above $99999.99
Market Model 45% 71.1%
Before 2027
Market Model 7% 1.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 18% 16%
Yes
Market Model 9% 6.1%
Yes
Market Model 6% 30.1%
Before March 2026
Market Model 5% 2.1%
Before April 2026
Market Model 10% 1.8%
Below $60,000.00
Market Model 77% 95.7%
Below $65,000.00
Market Model 89% 96.9%
Above $6,000.00
Market Model 10% 46.4%
Above $5,000.00
Market Model 15% 2%
Below $2,000.00
Market Model 99% 95%
Below $1,750.00
Market Model 90% 77.5%
7,200 or above
Market Model 76% 54.5%
7,800 or above
Market Model 35% 14.5%
5,900 or below
Market Model 46% 78.8%
6,000 or below
Market Model 42% 39%
Yes
Market Model 12% 9.5%
Yes
Market Model 83% 94.5%
Josh D'Amaro
Market Model 1% 98.8%
Dana Walden
Market Model 1% 34.7%
Above $170.00
Market Model 46% 74.6%
Above $200.00
Market Model 41% 73.7%
Yes
Market Model 6% 5.5%
150 or above
Market Model 27% 73.7%
200 or above
Market Model 18% 16%
Yes
Market Model 15% 14.5%
At least $7 million
Market Model 74% 95.1%
At least $8 million
Market Model 60% 91.6%
Yes
Market Model 12% 1.6%
Yes
Market Model 33% 31.5%
SpaceX
Market Model 87% 97.8%
Databricks
Market Model 46% 45%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 75% 72.5%
Citigroup
Market Model 40% 37%
Yes
Market Model 24% 23.5%
Yes
Market Model 14% 36%
At least $900
Market Model 38% 38.5%
At least $800
Market Model 78% 74.5%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 22% 7.6%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 7% 6.4%
Anthropic
Market Model 11% 9%
Palantir
Market Model 18% 29.1%
Yes
Market Model 18% 17%
xAI
Market Model 66% 64.5%
Anthropic
Market Model 43% 48.5%
Above 5%
Market Model 31% 31.5%
Above 6%
Market Model 15% 43.2%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 11% 1.5%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 9% 1%
Yes
Market Model 20% 18.5%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 3% 1.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 59% 55.5%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 18% 33%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 55% 75.4%
Paramount
Market Model 23% 18.5%
Netflix
Market Model 60% 61%
Bank of America
Market Model 85% 83%
Citigroup
Market Model 51% 49%
$40 trillion
Market Model 99% 98.3%
$50 trillion
Market Model 55% 52.5%
At least 1000
Market Model 98% 99.5%
At least 5000
Market Model 56% 53.5%
Yes
Market Model 65% 92.8%
Before 2027
Market Model 79% 96.3%
Before 2028
Market Model 88% 86.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 30% 43.4%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 16% 13.5%
Elon Musk
Market Model 87% 80.3%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 5% 4.2%
United States
Market Model 71% 60.6%
China
Market Model 35% 31.5%
Yes
Market Model 22% 20%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Top outcome: Before March 2026 | 1% | 50% | Med | $24,340,627 | Ask |
| Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.75% | 3% | 2% | Med | $151,729 | Ask |
| Unemployment in January 2026? Top outcome: Above 4.3% | 69% | 89% | Med | $474,278 | Ask |
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? Top outcome: Valar Atomics | 69% | 93.8% | Med | $69,233 | Ask |
| Coinbase trading volume in Q4? Top outcome: Above 270 billion | 21% | 20.5% | Med | $357,769 | Ask |
| Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 58% | 14.7% | Med | $67,411 | Ask |
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 26% | 70.8% | Med | $268,910 | Ask |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Top outcome: Before July | 7% | 1.9% | Med | $8,814 | Ask |
| Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 14% | 1.7% | Med | $36,467 | Ask |
| What will EA say during their next earnings call? Top outcome: Mobile | 2% | 10.1% | Med | $4,065,415 | Ask |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 38% | 37.5% | Med | $77,897 | Ask |
| When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 12% | 11.5% | Med | $40,305 | Ask |
| When will Dogecoin hit $1? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026 | 5% | 4.5% | Med | $128,689 | Ask |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2025? Top outcome: Above 3.5% | 47% | 45.5% | Med | $2,163,835 | Ask |
| Unemployment rate in Jan 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 4.4% | 36% | 32.4% | Med | $80,293 | Ask |
| Jobs numbers in Jan 2026? Top outcome: Above 90,000 | 31% | 30.5% | Med | $222,024 | Ask |
| Ethereum price on Feb 6, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $2,500 or above | 4% | 1.5% | Med | $571,304 | Ask |
| What will Trump say during the State of the Union? Top outcome: Crypto / Bitcoin | 39% | 24.8% | Med | $364,706 | Ask |
| How low will Bitcoin get in February? Top outcome: Below $70,000.00 | 1% | 90% | Med | $107,438 | Ask |
| How high will Ethereum get in February? Top outcome: Above $2,500.00 | 23% | 33.5% | Med | $50,969 | Ask |
| More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024? Yes refers to: Up in 2025 | 1% | 99% | Med | $461,265 | Ask |
| What will Trump say in February? Top outcome: Barack Hussein Obama | 1% | 99.5% | Med | $61,790 | Ask |
| Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address? Top outcome: Marco / Rubio | 65% | 63.5% | Med | $99,156 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Mar 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 14% | 9.4% | High | $3,481,492 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? Top outcome: At least 1 billion | 5% | 3.5% | Med | $8,773,717 | Ask |
| How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025? Top outcome: At least 50 GWdc | 28% | 27% | Med | $62,074 | Ask |
| What nicknames will Trump say before April? Top outcome: Slopadopolous | 64% | 63.5% | Med | $86,215 | Ask |
| How much will the government increase spending in 2025? Top outcome: At least $500 billion | 28% | 71.7% | Med | $282,094 | Ask |
| How much will US debt increase in 2025? Top outcome: More than 130% of GDP | 7% | 4.5% | Med | $143,617 | Ask |
| Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Top outcome: 350000 or more | 42% | 17% | Med | $180,738 | Ask |
| Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q1 of 2026? Top outcome: SoFi | 56% | 52.5% | Med | $252,818 | Ask |
| When will xAI release Grok 4.2? Yes refers to: Before Apr 21, 2026 | 96% | 86.3% | Med | $5,728 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Fed maintains rate | 78% | 77.1% | Med | $61,756 | Ask |
| SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Top outcome: Before April | 57% | 57% | Med | $214,483 | Ask |
| Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros? Top outcome: Before March | 9% | 22.2% | Med | $431,217 | Ask |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic | 59% | 52.9% | Med | $99,071 | Ask |
| Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026? Top outcome: Bitcoin (BTC) | 35% | 62.5% | Med | $185,968 | Ask |
| Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 49% | 48% | Med | $60,625 | Ask |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Gemini | 48% | 47.1% | Med | $749,089 | Ask |
| Measles cases in 2026? Top outcome: Above 4000 | 80% | 98% | Med | $328,123 | Ask |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 9% | 13.7% | Med | $723,442 | Ask |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 65% | 63% | Med | $56,145 | Ask |
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? Yes refers to: Grants license | 34% | 39% | Med | $146,484 | Ask |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 27% | 48.9% | Med | $197,646 | Ask |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 47% | 30.2% | Med | $85,686 | Ask |
| S&P close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 7,400 to 7,599.99 | 12% | 9.2% | Med | $510,517 | Ask |
| Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 18,999.99 or below | 16% | 23.4% | Med | $163,854 | Ask |
| Will the S&P finish positive this year? Yes refers to: Positive Growth | 65% | 44.4% | Med | $155,883 | Ask |
| How high will Bitcoin get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $199999.99 | 9% | 8.5% | Med | $1,538,623 | Ask |
| NASA lands on the moon? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 7% | 1.5% | Med | $101,510 | Ask |
| Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027? Yes refers to: Above $200000 | 9% | 6.1% | High | $2,769,198 | Ask |
| Will Bitcoin be above $250k by 2027? Yes refers to: Above $250000 | 6% | 30.1% | Med | $308,642 | Ask |
| When will Bitcoin cross $100k again? Top outcome: Before March 2026 | 5% | 2.1% | Med | $796,077 | Ask |
| How low will Bitcoin get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $60,000.00 | 77% | 95.7% | Med | $400,884 | Ask |
| How high will Ethereum get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $6,000.00 | 10% | 46.4% | Med | $855,198 | Ask |
| How low will Ethereum get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $2,000.00 | 99% | 95% | Med | $157,241 | Ask |
| How high will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 7,200 or above | 76% | 54.5% | Med | $182,376 | Ask |
| How low will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 5,900 or below | 46% | 78.8% | Med | $75,962 | Ask |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 12% | 9.5% | Med | $97,634 | Ask |
| Netflix price increase in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 83% | 94.5% | Med | $84,697 | Ask |
| Who will be the next CEO of Disney? Top outcome: Josh D'Amaro | 1% | 98.8% | High | $50,353 | Ask |
| How high will Solana get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $170.00 | 46% | 74.6% | Med | $159,877 | Ask |
| Will Solana end 2026 over $500? Yes refers to: na | 6% | 5.5% | Med | $153,053 | Ask |
| Price of Solana by end of 2026? Top outcome: 150 or above | 27% | 73.7% | Med | $92,000 | Ask |
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 15% | 14.5% | Med | $1,137,590 | Ask |
| What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator go for at auction? Top outcome: At least $7 million | 74% | 95.1% | Med | $499,183 | Ask |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 12% | 1.6% | Med | $61,650 | Ask |
| Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027? Yes refers to: Any psychedelic substance for medical use | 33% | 31.5% | Med | $57,462 | Ask |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO before 2027? Top outcome: SpaceX | 87% | 97.8% | Med | $485,382 | Ask |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Goldman Sachs | 75% | 72.5% | Med | $50,292 | Ask |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 24% | 23.5% | Med | $91,008 | Ask |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 14% | 36% | Med | $213,010 | Ask |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 38% | 38.5% | Med | $60,063 | Ask |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 22% | 7.6% | Med | $53,239 | Ask |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027? Top outcome: Anthropic | 11% | 9% | Med | $194,985 | Ask |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18% | 17% | Med | $53,347 | Ask |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: xAI | 66% | 64.5% | Med | $79,878 | Ask |
| How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5% | 31% | 31.5% | Med | $156,931 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 11% | 1.5% | Med | $137,919 | Ask |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 20% | 18.5% | Med | $288,888 | Ask |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 3% | 1.5% | Med | $77,291 | Ask |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 18% | 33% | Med | $368,231 | Ask |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 23% | 18.5% | High | $1,039,405 | Ask |
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Bank of America | 85% | 83% | Med | $509,741 | Ask |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 99% | 98.3% | Med | $59,438 | Ask |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Top outcome: At least 1000 | 98% | 99.5% | Med | $74,230 | Ask |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 65% | 92.8% | Med | $132,244 | Ask |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 79% | 96.3% | Med | $240,769 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 30% | 43.4% | Med | $59,048 | Ask |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 87% | 80.3% | Med | $122,211 | Ask |
| Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Top outcome: United States | 71% | 60.6% | Med | $75,962 | Ask |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22% | 20% | Med | $52,307 | Ask |
Expired Markets (4)
Yes
Market Model 15% 7.2%
Yes
Market Model 57% 14%
$70,000 or above
Market Model 62% 14.5%
$72,000 or above
Market Model 26% 6.5%
$2,130 or above
Market Model 30% 71%
$2,170 or above
Market Model 18% 49%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price range on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST? Yes refers to: $67,000 to 67,249.99 | 15% | 7.2% | High | $84,823 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST? Yes refers to: $66,750 or above | 57% | 14% | Med | $719,574 | Ask |
| Bitcoin price on Feb 5, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $70,000 or above | 62% | 14.5% | Med | $737,018 | Ask |
| Ethereum price on Feb 5, 2026 at 5pm EST? Top outcome: $2,130 or above | 30% | 71% | Med | $167,215 | Ask |
