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Recession Probability Mispricing
Most recession contracts on Kalshi are priced as if the US and UK move together. We think they decouple in 2026 — the UK avoids recession while the US ends in stagflation.
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Important disclosures
- Backtests are hypothetical. Returns shown on this page are computed from historical Kalshi candle data against the entry prices in the underlying Octagon research report. They do not reflect actual trading, slippage, fees, or order-routing latency.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prediction-market contracts are leveraged instruments with substantial risk of total loss. Any basket can lose 100% of the capital deployed in it.
- Not investment advice. Octagon AI Inc. is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, or commodity trading adviser. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any contract. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions.
- Order routing. Orders placed from this page route to Kalshi (KalshiEX LLC, a CFTC-regulated designated contract market). Fills are not guaranteed at the prices quoted; final fill prices depend on book depth at the time the order is received.
- Jurisdiction & eligibility. Kalshi contracts are available only to eligible participants in jurisdictions where Kalshi operates. Verify your eligibility with Kalshi before placing any order.
