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Fiscal Catalyst Cascade
The market is pricing the reconciliation bill as likely to pass through both chambers on time. We disagree on the dates, on the swing-vote moderates, and on whether the controversial line items survive conference.
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- Backtests are hypothetical. Returns shown on this page are computed from historical Kalshi candle data against the entry prices in the underlying Octagon research report. They do not reflect actual trading, slippage, fees, or order-routing latency.
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