SC-06 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Jim Clyburn is the incumbent and sole listed Democratic candidate.
- No primary challengers, debates, or negative Super PACs target Clyburn.
- Frederick Goodwin lacks campaign contributions, endorsements, or advertising.
- Goodwin's reported candidacy is for a different local office.
- No other major Democratic candidate has emerged for SC-06.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Clyburn | 96.0% | 99.0% | Model higher by 3.0pp |
| Frederick Goodwin | 9.0% | 1.0% | Market higher by 8.0pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if Jim Clyburn wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 SC-06 House seat; otherwise, the market resolves to "No." The market opened on April 18, 2026, and will close either after the outcome occurs or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Outcomes are verified using the Republican and Democratic Party websites, and individuals employed by these source agencies are prohibited from trading this contract.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Clyburn | $0.97 | $0.04 | 96% |
| Frederick Goodwin | $0.07 | $0.99 | 9% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Are Frederick Goodwin's SC-06 U.S. House Contributions Known?
| Frederick Goodwin SC-06 U.S. House Total Contributions | Not reported in available research for 2024 election cycle [^] |
|---|---|
| Frederick Goodwin Listing in FEC Data (SC-06 2024) | Not listed with reported campaign contributions [^] |
| Primary Challenger Viability Threshold Assessment | Cannot be assessed from provided research [^] |
5. Has Frederick Goodwin Received Endorsements From Key SC Political Groups?
| SC Political Figure Endorsements | No formal endorsements listed [^] |
|---|---|
| SC Labor Union Endorsements | No endorsements from SC AFL-CIO or other unions found [^] |
| Progressive Org. Endorsements | No such endorsements found, and organizations previously endorsing Jim Clyburn are not identified in sources [^] |
6. Was There Significant Goodwin Campaign Advertising in SC-06 Primary?
| Goodwin Campaign SC-06 Ad Buy | No documented significant local media advertising found (Research findings summary) [^] |
|---|---|
| Research Primary Focus | South Carolina gubernatorial race and statewide ad buys [^] |
| SC-06 Election Ad Details | No specific advertising expenditures for individual campaigns mentioned [^] |
7. Are Super PACs Targeting Jim Clyburn in the SC-06 Primary?
| Independent Expenditures Targeting Jim Clyburn | None identified in SC-06 primary [^] |
|---|---|
| SC-06 Democratic Primary Candidates | Jim Clyburn (sole candidate) [^] |
| Election Cycle for Primary | 2026 [^] |
8. Are 2026 SC-06 Democratic Primary Debates Currently Scheduled?
| 2026 SC-06 Primary Debates | None officially scheduled by major media or civic groups (Research findings) [^] |
|---|---|
| Jim Clyburn Debate Participation | No public agreement to participate (No debates scheduled) [^] |
| Jim Clyburn's Reelection Plan | Intends to seek another term [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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