Who will win the next Israeli legislative election?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Likud (50.0% model vs 67.0% market), driven by Benjamin Netanyahu consistently trailing in preferred Prime Minister polls.
1. Executive Verdict
- Benny Gantz consistently leads Benjamin Netanyahu in "preferred Prime Minister" polls.
- A hypothetical Naftali Bennett party could become the largest in the Knesset.
- Such a new Bennett party would erode support from both Likud and National Unity.
- Benjamin Netanyahu consistently trails Gantz in "preferred Prime Minister" polls.
- Arab-Israeli voter turnout is projected to be exceptionally low.
- Coalition partners' "red lines" threaten government stability and formation.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett 2026 | 9.0% | 16.8% | A hypothetical new party led by Naftali Bennett is projected to erode support from major parties. |
| Likud | 67.0% | 50.0% | Likud remains a strong party, benefiting from stable Haredi coalition partners. |
| Yesh Atid | 6.0% | 5.1% | The party aims to represent a significant bloc of voters in the next election. |
| National Unity | 1.0% | 13.2% | A hypothetical new Naftali Bennett party is projected to draw votes from National Unity. |
| Yashar | 13.0% | 14.8% | The party seeks to gain parliamentary representation through its platform. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market is characterized by a long-term sideways trend, with the price trading in a wide range between 29.0% and 75.0%. The current price of 67.0% is near the starting price of 69.0%, indicating no sustained directional conviction over the market's lifetime. However, recent price action has been extremely volatile. On April 26, the contract experienced a sharp 33.0 percentage point drop from 72.0% to 39.0%. This was followed by an equally aggressive reversal, with the price spiking 10.0 points on April 27 and another 18.0 points on April 28 to recover most of its losses.
Given that no specific context or news has been provided, the direct cause of this recent price crash and subsequent V-shaped recovery is unclear. The price action itself suggests the market is event-driven and highly reactive. From a technical standpoint, the recent low of 39.0% has established a key support level where significant buying interest emerged, while the 75.0% mark has acted as resistance. The total volume of 4,437 contracts indicates a moderate level of financial commitment from traders. The rapid rebound from the lows suggests that despite a moment of intense pessimism, overall market sentiment has quickly returned to favor a "YES" outcome, pricing it as the most likely scenario.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Bennett 2026
📉 April 28, 2026: 44.0pp drop
Price decreased from 53.0% to 9.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 26, 2026: 45.0pp spike
Price increased from 18.0% to 63.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 17, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 26.0% to 18.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Likud
📈 April 27, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 39.0% to 49.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution triggers if the specified party or pre-election coalition wins the most seats in the next Israeli legislative election; ties are broken by government formation or vote share. A "No" resolution occurs if a listed party merges or ceases to contest separately, as only one option can resolve to "Yes." The market opened July 15, 2025, closes upon outcome or by October 27, 2027, with resolutions verified by the Central Elections Committee and payouts 30 minutes after closing; if an election is postponed, the contract remains open for up to two additional years.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | $0.56 | $0.52 | 67% |
| Yashar | $0.09 | $1.00 | 13% |
| Bennett 2026 | $0.10 | $0.98 | 9% |
| Yesh Atid | $0.04 | $1.00 | 6% |
| National Unity | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Together | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Main viewpoints center on the reported merger of Bennett 2026 and Yesh Atid into a new joint list, which traders argue means these individual options will resolve to 'No' due to market rules regarding parties ceasing to exist separately. While Likud currently holds a 67% chance, a general anti-Netanyahu sentiment is noted, though no specific arguments for or against Likud winning are presented. The key insight is the near certainty that the 'Bennett 2026' and 'Yesh Atid' options will not resolve to 'Yes' in their current form due to the merger.
5. Who is preferred for Israel's security leadership, Gantz or Netanyahu?
| May 2023 PM Preference | Benny Gantz 42%, Benjamin Netanyahu 35% [^] |
|---|---|
| Late May/Early June 2024 PM Preference | Benjamin Netanyahu 43%, Benny Gantz 38% [^] |
| June 2024 PM Preference | Benny Gantz 48%, Benjamin Netanyahu 33% [^] |
While polls rarely directly inquire about specific suitability for Israel's security, surveys on prime ministerial preference are often interpreted through the lens of security capabilities. The general trend indicates Benny Gantz frequently holds a lead over Benjamin Netanyahu in overall prime ministerial suitability. For example, in May 2023, following an IDF operation, Gantz was preferred by 42% compared to Netanyahu's 35% [^].
Netanyahu has experienced temporary boosts in prime ministerial preference, reflecting the dynamic nature of public opinion. A notable shift occurred in late May/early June 2024, when a poll suggested Benjamin Netanyahu was considered more suited for Prime Minister, leading Benny Gantz 43% to 38% [^]. This development was attributed to Israel's prevailing security situation at the time.
Gantz's overall lead persists despite Netanyahu's occasional gains, as these temporary shifts were not universal or long-lasting. Other polls conducted around the same period and subsequently presented a different picture. A Maariv poll in June 2024 showed Benny Gantz with a substantial lead, preferred by 48% of the public over Benjamin Netanyahu's 33% [^]. This lead largely continued into August 2024, with Gantz preferred by 42% to Netanyahu's 37% [^], underscoring Gantz's typical lead in general prime ministerial suitability.
6. What Are Naftali Bennett's Hypothetical Party Poll Projections?
| Projected Seat Range | 15 to 29 seats [^] |
|---|---|
| Highest Projection | 29 seats (one prominent poll) [^] |
| Lower Projection | 15 seats (another poll) [^] |
Polls for a hypothetical new center-right party led by Naftali Bennett reveal varied projections for seat distribution in the Israeli Knesset. One poll projects Naftali Bennett's party as the largest, securing 29 seats. This scenario indicates that a new entity could emerge as the largest party, significantly shifting the political landscape by drawing votes primarily from Likud, which would be projected at 19 seats, and National Unity, projected at 11 seats [^].
Another poll suggests Bennett's party would secure 15 seats, with Likud still leading. In this alternative scenario, Bennett's hypothetical new party is projected to receive 15 seats [^]. Likud would remain the largest party with 27 seats, followed by Yesh Atid at 18 seats, and National Unity at 11 seats [^]. This potential return of Bennett with a new party is broadly expected to reshape the right-wing bloc, predominantly at the expense of Likud and, to a lesser extent, National Unity [^].
7. What is the Haredi Parties' Polling and Coalition Potential?
| Electoral Threshold | 3.25% [^] |
|---|---|
| Shas Projected 2026 Seats | 9-10 seats [^] |
| UTJ Projected 2026 Seats | 7-8 seats [^] |
Haredi parties consistently exceed the electoral threshold with stable support. Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) reliably poll above Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold for the Knesset [^]. Shas frequently emerges as the third-largest party in national polls [^]. Polling data for the 2026 Israeli legislative election consistently indicates Shas receiving approximately 9-10 seats and United Torah Judaism polling around 7-8 seats, demonstrating a stable base of support for both parties within the Israeli political landscape [^].
Haredi parties strongly align with the right-religious bloc. Both Shas and UTJ maintain a strong and consistent alignment with the right-religious political bloc, which has historically been led by Benjamin Netanyahu [^]. This alignment is reinforced by recent actions, such as Shas's announcement of its exit from the Israeli government while clarifying it would remain part of the coalition, and Shas leader Arye Deri remaining in Netanyahu's cabinet [^]. This sustained partnership suggests a strong preference for forming future governments with parties from the right-religious political spectrum.
8. What is the Forecast for Arab-Israeli Voter Turnout and Coalition Dynamics?
| 2022 Arab-Israeli Voter Turnout | 53% [^] |
|---|---|
| 2020 Arab-Israeli Voter Turnout | 64.8% [^] |
| Upcoming Election Voter Turnout | Expected lower than 2022; new all-time low predicted [^] |
Voter turnout projections for the Arab-Israeli sector anticipate a significant decrease from previous elections. Projections for the upcoming Israeli legislative election indicate a continued decline in voter turnout within the Arab-Israeli sector, anticipated to be lower than the 53% recorded in the 2022 election [^]. Polls predict a new all-time low in Arab voter participation, extending a trend from the 64.8% turnout in 2020 [^]. This expected decrease is largely attributed to political apathy, a sense of disaffection among Arab citizens, and a belief that their votes do not significantly influence their daily lives or national policy [^].
Mansour Abbas indicates willingness to join a Gantz-led coalition if it benefits Arab citizens. Regarding potential coalition formations, Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, has signaled a readiness to cooperate with any political party committed to improving the lives of Arab citizens [^]. This pragmatic stance suggests Ra'am could potentially join a Gantz-led coalition if such an opportunity aligns with the party's objectives and offers tangible benefits to the Arab community [^]. Abbas's approach prioritizes the practical needs of the Arab community, distinguishing Ra'am from other Arab parties that may adhere to more traditional ideological alignments [^].
9. What Red Lines Could Collapse Israel's Coalition Government?
| Ben-Gvir's Death Penalty Bill | Stop voting with coalition if not advanced [^] |
|---|---|
| Ben-Gvir's Gaza Ceasefire Deal | Oppose any reckless deal, no safety net [^] |
| Smotrich's Gaza War Conclusion | Quit if war ends without Hamas elimination [^] |
Far-right coalition partners Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism) have issued specific ultimatums that pose significant threats to the stability of the current Israeli government. These "red lines" primarily concern the handling of the Gaza war and certain legislative initiatives.
Itamar Ben-Gvir’s ultimatums center on legislation and Gaza ceasefire terms. He has explicitly stated that his party would cease voting with the coalition if a death penalty bill for terrorists is not advanced [^]. Ben-Gvir has also indicated a willingness for his party to operate independently of the coalition if delays occur with the death penalty bill [^]. Furthermore, he has vowed to oppose any "reckless deal" for a Gaza ceasefire, signaling that Otzma Yehudit would not provide a safety net for such an agreement [^].
Bezalel Smotrich's red lines focus on the Gaza war's conclusion. He has identified the conclusion of the war in Gaza under unacceptable terms as a critical threshold for his party. Smotrich has unequivocally declared that he would withdraw from the government if the war ends without the elimination of Hamas or if Israel agrees to any deal that halts the conflict [^]. He emphasized that Religious Zionism's continued participation in the government is to ensure the war's objectives are met and that it does not end prematurely [^]. While Smotrich has raised objections to other policies, such as humanitarian aid to Gaza, he has indicated these issues would not lead to his departure from the coalition [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 27, 2027
- Closes: October 27, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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