Cadillac Championship: Top 20 Finishers
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Justin Rose completed a full equipment switch with McLaren Golf in April.
- Jordan Spieth re-entered top 50, currently on major qualification bubble.
- The market experienced significant price drops on May 1st and April 30th.
- No specific players identified as top 20% for Trump National Doral.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Taylor | 94.0% | 72.0% | Market higher by 22.0pp |
| Akshay Bhatia | 87.0% | 42.0% | Market higher by 45.0pp |
| Adam Scott | 49.0% | 2.7% | The provided web research explicitly states it could not identify players, including Adam Scott, who rank in the top 20% for Trump National Doral using DataGolf's Course Fit Tool, offering no specific evidence to challenge or support the debiased market price. |
| Scottie Scheffler | 99.0% | 80.3% | The provided background research is neutral as it explicitly states that it does not contain the necessary information to evaluate player course fit for Trump National Doral or compare market odds, thus neither supporting nor refuting the market's high probability for Scottie Scheffler to finish in the top 20. |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 19.0% | 16.0% | Market higher by 3.0pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Daniel Berger
📉 May 01, 2026: 22.0pp drop
Price decreased from 27.0% to 5.0%
📈 April 28, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 13.0% to 27.0%
Outcome: Jacob Bridgeman
📉 April 30, 2026: 32.0pp drop
Price decreased from 41.0% to 9.0%
📈 April 27, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 28.0% to 43.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) of the 2026 Cadillac Championship. It resolves to No if he does not or withdraws after teeing off; a withdrawal prior to teeing off resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opened April 27, 2026, and closes after the event or by May 30, 2026, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Young | $1.00 | $0.07 | 99% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.99 | $0.02 | 97% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.98 | $0.06 | 94% |
| Nick Taylor | $0.96 | $0.06 | 94% |
| Matthew McCarty | $0.98 | $0.05 | 91% |
| Alex Noren | $0.88 | $0.16 | 88% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $0.91 | $0.12 | 87% |
| Michael Kim | $0.75 | $0.29 | 74% |
| Rickie Fowler | $0.73 | $0.31 | 72% |
| Sepp Straka | $0.70 | $0.33 | 70% |
| Daniel Berger | $0.61 | $0.46 | 65% |
| Russell Henley | $0.64 | $0.38 | 64% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.73 | $0.37 | 61% |
| Andrew Putnam | $0.57 | $0.46 | 56% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.59 | $0.48 | 56% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.53 | $0.53 | 50% |
| Harry Hall | $0.52 | $0.50 | 50% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.46 | $0.60 | 50% |
| Adam Scott | $0.51 | $0.55 | 49% |
| Min Woo Lee | $0.49 | $0.54 | 49% |
| Brian Harman | $0.47 | $0.57 | 48% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | $0.49 | $0.54 | 47% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.56 | $0.52 | 47% |
| J.J. Spaun | $0.49 | $0.59 | 45% |
| Chandler Blanchet | $0.02 | $1.00 | 32% |
| Joel Dahmen | $0.04 | $1.00 | 32% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | $0.37 | $0.74 | 31% |
| Denny McCarthy | $0.35 | $0.70 | 30% |
| Gary Woodland | $0.44 | $0.70 | 30% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $0.40 | $0.76 | 30% |
| Keegan Bradley | $0.46 | $0.73 | 28% |
| Lucas Glover | $0.31 | $0.80 | 25% |
| Pierceson Coody | $0.48 | $0.75 | 25% |
| Taylor Pendrith | $0.46 | $0.79 | 25% |
| Max Homa | $0.24 | $0.78 | 22% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $0.25 | $0.81 | 21% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | $0.24 | $0.85 | 19% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.20 | $0.84 | 17% |
| Sam Burns | $0.13 | $0.91 | 13% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.10 | $0.95 | 11% |
| Maverick McNealy | $0.09 | $0.92 | 9% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $0.09 | $0.99 | 9% |
| Jason Day | $0.12 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Ricky Castillo | $0.12 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.11 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.09 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Corey Conners | $0.09 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $0.10 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Matt Wallace | $0.08 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Max Greyserman | $0.08 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | $0.10 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Patrick Rodgers | $0.34 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $0.04 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.07 | $0.97 | 5% |
| Tom Hoge | $0.05 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Viktor Hovland | $0.05 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Bud Cauley | $0.09 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Harris English | $0.09 | $0.98 | 3% |
| J.T. Poston | $0.05 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $0.08 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Andrew Novak | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Austin Smotherman | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| David Lipsky | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jordan L. Smith | $0.05 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Justin Rose | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Sahith Theegala | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Sungjae Im | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Which Players Rank Top 20% for Trump National Doral?
| Course Fit Tool Purpose | Evaluates player historical skill against course characteristics like length, water hazards, and wind [^] |
|---|---|
| Trump National Doral Rankings | Specific list of players in top 20% for Trump National Doral not available [^] |
| Available Doral Information | General information on Trump National Doral and Cadillac Championship available, but not player data [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^] |
6. Can Robinhood Prediction Market 'Top 20' Odds Be Compared to Sportsbooks?
| Prediction Market Focus | Top 20 Finishers, 2026 Cadillac Championship [^] |
|---|---|
| Sportsbook Data Available | Outright winner odds for Cadillac Championship [^] |
| Direct Comparison Status | Not currently possible due to lack of specific 'Top 20 Finish' odds from major sportsbooks [^] |
7. Can Golfers Showing SG: Approach Decline Be Identified?
| Specific Trend Data | Not available for decline of more than 0.5 strokes over last 8 starts [^]. |
|---|---|
| Data Golf Tool Scope | Queries for various SG categories over the last 12 months [^] |
| PGA TOUR Stats Availability | Official stats pages are available [^] |
8. What Major Golf Equipment Changes Happened in April 2026?
| Justin Rose New Equipment Deal | McLaren Golf, full bag switch (April 2026 [^]) |
|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth Equipment Adjustment | Included golf ball change (April 2026 [^]) |
| Event of Equipment Debuts | Cadillac Championship (April 2026 [^]) |
9. Is Jordan Spieth "On the Bubble" for Major Golf Events?
| Player Status | Jordan Spieth is currently "on the bubble" [^] |
|---|---|
| OWGR Ranking | Climbed into the Top 50 of Official World Golf Ranking as of April 28, 2026 [^] |
| Crucial Performance | A top 20 finish at a significant tournament like the Cadillac Championship is crucial [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 31, 2026
- Closes: May 31, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Related News
Live Leaderboard Drives Sharp Repricing in Cadillac Championship Market
The prediction market for a Top 20 finish at the 2026 Cadillac Championship underwent a significant realignment on Saturday, May 2, 2026, as traders aggressively priced in the results of the tournamen...
Cadillac Championship Market Realigns After Round 2; Theegala Odds Drop
The prediction market for a Top 20 finish at the 2026 Cadillac Championship saw a significant realignment on Friday, May 01, 2026, as traders aggressively repriced player probabilities following the c...
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP20-CAC26-PCAN: SCALAR (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-CAC26-JKNA: SCALAR (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-ZUCONO26-THVI: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-ZUCONO26-STWA: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-ZUCONO26-SMSP: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
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