Cadillac Championship: Top 20 Finishers
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Justin Rose completed a full equipment switch with McLaren Golf in April.
- Jordan Spieth re-entered top 50, currently on major qualification bubble.
- The market experienced significant price drops on May 1st and April 30th.
- No specific players identified as top 20% for Trump National Doral.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristoffer Reitan | 48.0% | 48.0% | Model and market aligned |
| Alex Smalley | 78.0% | 78.0% | Model and market aligned |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
| Keith Mitchell | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
| Scottie Scheffler | 85.0% | 80.3% | The provided background research is neutral as it explicitly states that it does not contain the necessary information to evaluate player course fit for Trump National Doral or compare market odds, thus neither supporting nor refuting the market's high probability for Scottie Scheffler to finish in the top 20. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Daniel Berger
📉 May 01, 2026: 22.0pp drop
Price decreased from 27.0% to 5.0%
📈 April 28, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 13.0% to 27.0%
Outcome: Jacob Bridgeman
📉 April 30, 2026: 32.0pp drop
Price decreased from 41.0% to 9.0%
📈 April 27, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 28.0% to 43.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) of the 2026 Cadillac Championship. It resolves to No if he does not or withdraws after teeing off; a withdrawal prior to teeing off resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opened April 27, 2026, and closes after the event or by May 30, 2026, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smalley | $0.78 | $0.26 | 78% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | $0.48 | $0.57 | 48% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | $0.22 | $0.79 | 0% |
| Keith Mitchell | $0.15 | $0.88 | 0% |
| Cameron Young | $0.96 | $0.05 | 95% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.85 | $0.16 | 85% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.85 | $0.16 | 85% |
| Nick Taylor | $0.72 | $0.30 | 72% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $0.64 | $0.38 | 63% |
| Rickie Fowler | $0.58 | $0.43 | 58% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.61 | $0.42 | 58% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $0.60 | $0.42 | 57% |
| Gary Woodland | $0.55 | $0.46 | 55% |
| Min Woo Lee | $0.53 | $0.48 | 53% |
| Sahith Theegala | $0.51 | $0.51 | 51% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | $0.49 | $0.52 | 48% |
| Matthew McCarty | $0.46 | $0.55 | 46% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | $0.45 | $0.56 | 45% |
| Brian Harman | $0.45 | $0.57 | 45% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.44 | $0.57 | 44% |
| Bud Cauley | $0.45 | $0.56 | 44% |
| Russell Henley | $0.45 | $0.58 | 44% |
| Maverick McNealy | $0.43 | $0.58 | 43% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $0.43 | $0.58 | 42% |
| Sepp Straka | $0.41 | $0.60 | 41% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.41 | $0.62 | 40% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.36 | $0.66 | 37% |
| Max Homa | $0.37 | $0.64 | 37% |
| Andrew Putnam | $0.36 | $0.65 | 36% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.34 | $0.69 | 33% |
| J.T. Poston | $0.32 | $0.70 | 32% |
| Keegan Bradley | $0.32 | $0.69 | 32% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.33 | $0.68 | 32% |
| Sungjae Im | $0.32 | $0.69 | 32% |
| Andrew Novak | $0.31 | $0.70 | 31% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.35 | $0.67 | 31% |
| J.J. Spaun | $0.30 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Taylor Pendrith | $0.30 | $0.73 | 30% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.28 | $0.73 | 28% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.29 | $0.72 | 28% |
| Pierceson Coody | $0.27 | $0.74 | 27% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $0.27 | $0.76 | 26% |
| Tom Hoge | $0.27 | $0.74 | 26% |
| Patrick Rodgers | $0.23 | $0.78 | 23% |
| Harry Hall | $0.28 | $0.75 | 22% |
| Max Greyserman | $0.22 | $0.81 | 22% |
| Corey Conners | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
| Jordan L. Smith | $0.20 | $0.81 | 20% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | $0.23 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Viktor Hovland | $0.20 | $0.81 | 20% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $0.20 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Denny McCarthy | $0.18 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Alex Noren | $0.17 | $0.84 | 16% |
| Harris English | $0.17 | $0.84 | 16% |
| Ricky Castillo | $0.16 | $0.86 | 16% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | $0.16 | $0.85 | 16% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| David Lipsky | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Justin Rose | $0.15 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.11 | $0.92 | 13% |
| Sam Burns | $0.16 | $0.87 | 13% |
| Lucas Glover | $0.10 | $0.92 | 11% |
| Matt Wallace | $0.11 | $0.90 | 10% |
| Michael Kim | $0.10 | $0.91 | 8% |
| Adam Scott | $0.08 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Jason Day | $0.05 | $0.96 | 7% |
| Daniel Berger | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Chandler Blanchet | $0.05 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $0.03 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Joel Dahmen | $0.04 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Austin Smotherman | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Which Players Rank Top 20% for Trump National Doral?
| Course Fit Tool Purpose | Evaluates player historical skill against course characteristics like length, water hazards, and wind [^] |
|---|---|
| Trump National Doral Rankings | Specific list of players in top 20% for Trump National Doral not available [^] |
| Available Doral Information | General information on Trump National Doral and Cadillac Championship available, but not player data [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^] |
6. Can Robinhood Prediction Market 'Top 20' Odds Be Compared to Sportsbooks?
| Prediction Market Focus | Top 20 Finishers, 2026 Cadillac Championship [^] |
|---|---|
| Sportsbook Data Available | Outright winner odds for Cadillac Championship [^] |
| Direct Comparison Status | Not currently possible due to lack of specific 'Top 20 Finish' odds from major sportsbooks [^] |
7. Can Golfers Showing SG: Approach Decline Be Identified?
| Specific Trend Data | Not available for decline of more than 0.5 strokes over last 8 starts [^]. |
|---|---|
| Data Golf Tool Scope | Queries for various SG categories over the last 12 months [^] |
| PGA TOUR Stats Availability | Official stats pages are available [^] |
8. What Major Golf Equipment Changes Happened in April 2026?
| Justin Rose New Equipment Deal | McLaren Golf, full bag switch (April 2026 [^]) |
|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth Equipment Adjustment | Included golf ball change (April 2026 [^]) |
| Event of Equipment Debuts | Cadillac Championship (April 2026 [^]) |
9. Is Jordan Spieth "On the Bubble" for Major Golf Events?
| Player Status | Jordan Spieth is currently "on the bubble" [^] |
|---|---|
| OWGR Ranking | Climbed into the Top 50 of Official World Golf Ranking as of April 28, 2026 [^] |
| Crucial Performance | A top 20 finish at a significant tournament like the Cadillac Championship is crucial [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 31, 2026
- Closes: May 31, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP20-CAC26-PCAN: SCALAR (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-CAC26-JKNA: SCALAR (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-ZUCONO26-THVI: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-ZUCONO26-STWA: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-ZUCONO26-SMSP: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
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