The prediction market for a Top 20 finish at the 2026 Cadillac Championship underwent a significant realignment on Saturday, May 2, 2026, as traders aggressively priced in the results of the tournament's third round. The market shifted probability toward golfers positioned high on the leaderboard, exemplified by Matthew McCarty, whose implied odds of a top 20 finish surged by 87.0 percentage points to 91%. This influx of probability was drawn from players who slid down the standings, such as Bud Cauley, whose chances plummeted by 54.0 percentage points. The widespread repricing reflects the market consensus shifting from pre-tournament projections to on-course performance with only one round left to play.
Distribution Analysis
The session on May 2, 2026, saw a clear sorting of the 68-player field, with probabilities polarizing around the Top 20 cutoff. The market now implies near-certainty for players firmly inside the top 10, while odds have faded for those outside the top 30. This shift occurred on high volume, with contracts for rising players trading more than those for declining players.
| Outcome | Current Prob | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 99% | +2.0pp | 8,565 |
| Cameron Young | 99% | +2.0pp | 510 |
| Si Woo Kim | 97% | +9.0pp | 711 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 95% | +26.0pp | 909 |
| Ben Griffin | 94% | +29.0pp | 17,783 |
| Nick Taylor | 94% | +12.0pp | 174,194 |
| Matthew McCarty | 91% | +87.0pp | 3,169 |
| Alex Smalley | 89% | +3.0pp | 1,278 |
| Alex Noren | 88% | +73.0pp | 13,698 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 87% | +53.0pp | 95,560 |
| Michael Kim | 74% | +67.0pp | 11,549 |
| Rickie Fowler | 72% | +12.0pp | 78,517 |
| Sepp Straka | 70% | +37.0pp | 64,689 |
| Daniel Berger | 65% | +30.0pp | 5,532 |
| Russell Henley | 64% | +19.0pp | 16,406 |
| Jordan Spieth | 61% | -18.0pp | 45,784 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 56% | +3.0pp | 49,299 |
| Andrew Putnam | 56% | +11.0pp | 2,436 |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 51% | -16.0pp | 4,033 |
| Ryan Gerard | 50% | +14.0pp | 4,383 |
| Chris Gotterup | 50% | +18.0pp | 10,227 |
| Harry Hall | 50% | +10.0pp | 29,261 |
| Min Woo Lee | 49% | +1.0pp | 49,733 |
| Adam Scott | 49% | +41.0pp | 63,188 |
| Brian Harman | 48% | -14.0pp | 26,338 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 47% | +3.0pp | 19,125 |
| Justin Thomas | 47% | +19.0pp | 43,581 |
| J.J. Spaun | 45% | -10.0pp | 47,071 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 31% | +9.0pp | 11,893 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 30% | -43.0pp | 45,239 |
| Denny McCarthy | 30% | +29.0pp | 18,297 |
| Gary Woodland | 30% | -48.0pp | 57,837 |
| Keegan Bradley | 28% | +7.0pp | 17,536 |
| Pierceson Coody | 25% | +7.0pp | 140 |
| Lucas Glover | 25% | +16.0pp | 14,689 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 25% | -50.0pp | 11,548 |
| Max Homa | 22% | -7.0pp | 55,832 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 21% | -37.0pp | 22,785 |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 19% | -37.0pp | 49,840 |
| Sam Stevens | 17% | -19.0pp | 27,573 |
| Sam Burns | 13% | -16.0pp | 1,836 |
| Ryan Fox | 11% | +11.0pp | 22,703 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 9% | -15.0pp | 48,416 |
| Maverick McNealy | 9% | +10.0pp | 7,372 |
| Ricky Castillo | 8% | -14.0pp | 17,272 |
| Jason Day | 8% | -5.0pp | 6,246 |
| Brian Campbell | 7% | +1.0pp | 4,972 |
| Collin Morikawa | 7% | -6.0pp | 14,139 |
| Corey Conners | 6% | -20.0pp | 42,549 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 6% | -32.0pp | 34,353 |
| Max Greyserman | 6% | -8.0pp | 11,098 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 6% | -3.0pp | 19,171 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 6% | +12.0pp | 55 |
| Matt Wallace | 6% | -5.0pp | 18,771 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 5% | +4.0pp | 551 |
| Shane Lowry | 5% | -13.0pp | 2,289 |
| Tom Hoge | 4% | -11.0pp | 13,547 |
| Viktor Hovland | 4% | -15.0pp | 4,419 |
| Bud Cauley | 3% | -54.0pp | 64,440 |
| Harris English | 3% | -6.0pp | 97 |
| J.T. Poston | 3% | -42.0pp | 57,912 |
| David Lipsky | 1% | ~0pp | 94 |
| Andrew Novak | 1% | -1.0pp | 9,060 |
| Justin Rose | 1% | -15.0pp | 2,008 |
| Jordan L. Smith | 1% | -9.0pp | 1 |
| Austin Smotherman | 1% | ~0pp | 281 |
| Sahith Theegala | 1% | +2.0pp | 55 |
| Keith Mitchell | 1% | +4.0pp | 58 |
Net: 36 of 68 contracts rose on a total volume of 862,623, as the market sharply repriced player odds to align with the official leaderboard after three rounds of play.
What's Driving the Shift
Round 3 Results Finalized: The primary catalyst for the market's movement is the conclusion of the third round of play at the Trump National Doral course [2]. With 54 of 72 holes completed, traders are basing positions on actual scores rather than pre-tournament potential. The PGA TOUR's official leaderboard shows Matthew McCarty in a tie for 5th place at 8-under par, directly explaining the 87.0 percentage point surge in his Top 20 odds [2]. Similarly, other major gainers like Alex Noren (T8), Akshay Bhatia (T8), and Michael Kim (11th) saw their probabilities soar to reflect their strong leaderboard positions [2].
Fading Contenders Shed Probability: The probability gained by players in contention was sourced from those who struggled during the third round. Bud Cauley and J.T. Poston, who both saw their odds fall below 4%, are tied for 68th place at 5-over par, well outside the Top 20 [2]. Other significant decliners, including Taylor Pendrith (-50.0pp) and Gary Woodland (-48.0pp), are tied for 31st place and face an uphill battle to crack the Top 20 in the final round [2].
Market Context
This repricing is characteristic of in-play sports prediction markets, where initial odds based on models and historical data give way to live performance as the deciding factor. Prior to the event, Octagon AI's modeling data showed varying levels of agreement with market prices, but these projections are now secondary to the live leaderboard [1].
The total implied probability across all 68 contracts is 2,382%, suggesting the market expects approximately 24 players to finish in the top 20, accounting for potential ties. This figure has risen as the field has stratified, with a larger number of players now holding very high probabilities. The market for Justin Rose, who completed a full equipment switch in April, saw his odds fall 15.0 percentage points to just 1% after he finished Round 3 tied for 68th place [1], [2].
What to Watch
The market is set to close on May 31, 2026, but will effectively resolve after the final round of the Cadillac Championship is completed on Sunday, May 3 [1]. Trader attention will be focused on players near the 20th position on the leaderboard, as small score changes could lead to large swings in probability for those on the bubble. The final settlement will be based on official results from sources including the PGA TOUR, ESPN, and Fox Sports [1].
