Mike Brown: Out by Date
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Mike Brown's new contract extends through the 2026-27 season.
- His 2025-26 salary is fully guaranteed at $10 million.
- Kings ownership has a history of dismissing coaches for poor performance.
- Sacramento Kings are projected to slightly underperform their 2024-25 win totals.
- Several high-profile NBA coaches may become available by the 2025 offseason.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Out before Jul 1, 2026 | 43.0% | 27.0% | His contract extension through 2026-27, with $10M guaranteed for 2025-26, lowers early dismissal odds. |
| Out before Oct 25, 2026 | 0.0% | 27.0% | His contract extension through 2026-27, including guaranteed money, reduces dismissal likelihood before October 2026. |
| Out before Jul 1, 2027 | 0.0% | 37.0% | His contract extension through 2026-27, with guaranteed money, reduces dismissal likelihood before July 2027. |
| Out before Oct 25, 2027 | 85.0% | 72.0% | His contract extends through the 2026-27 season, concluding before October 2027. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 30, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 68.0% to 85.0%
Outcome: Out before Oct 25, 2027
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Mike Brown, the Head Coach of the New York Pro Basketball team, leaves or announces their departure after the market's issuance and before July 1, 2026. If this event does not occur by the market's closing time of June 30, 2026, at 11:59 pm EDT, it resolves to "No." The market will close early if the event occurs, with resolution based on information from major sports and news outlets like ESPN and the Governing League.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Out before Jul 1, 2026 | $0.55 | $0.57 | 43% |
| Out before Oct 25, 2026 | $0.69 | $0.49 | 0% |
| Out before Jul 1, 2027 | $0.81 | $0.37 | 0% |
| Out before Oct 25, 2027 | $0.85 | $0.31 | 85% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Will Sacramento Kings Underperform Vegas Win Totals by How Much?
| 2024-25 Projected Underperformance | 2.5 games [^] |
|---|---|
| 2025-26 Projected Underperformance | 2.5 games [^] |
| Maximum Projected Underperformance | Not more than 5 games [^] |
6. What are the details of Mike Brown's contract extension with Kings?
| Contract Length | Three years (through 2026-27 season) [^] |
|---|---|
| Total Value | $30 million [^] |
| 2026-27 Salary Guarantee | Not fully guaranteed [^] |
7. How did De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis react to Mike Brown's firing?
| De'Aaron Fox's Public Reaction | Unbelievably cold response [^] |
|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox's Post-Firing Action | Informed team of desire to be traded [^] |
| Domantas Sabonis's Public Statement | Shocked by dismissal, expressed gratitude [^] |
8. Which High-Profile NBA Coaches Are Available in 2025-2026 Offseasons?
| Kings Head Coach Tenure | Doug Christie, through April 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Coaches Available 2025 Offseason | Mike Budenholzer, Kenny Atkinson, Terry Stotts, Frank Vogel, Mike D'Antoni, Jay Wright, Adrian Griffin, David Fizdale, Dave Joerger [^] |
| Coach Available 2026 Offseason | Billy Donovan (after leaving Chicago Bulls) [^] |
9. What Factors Led to Sacramento Kings Coach Dismissals?
| Michael Malone's Dismissal Record | 11-13 (lost 7 of 8 games) [^] |
|---|---|
| Luke Walton's Dismissal Record | 6-11 start (lost 7 of 8 games) [^] |
| Alvin Gentry's Interim Record | 24-41 (16th consecutive playoff miss) [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 08, 2026
- Closes: October 25, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.