Short Answer

The model indicates Alexandria Foxworth is the most likely Republican nominee for NY-05 with a 53.1% probability, while the market currently assigns her 0.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Based on the provided data, the price for this market has been completely static. The probability has held steady at 46.0% across all recorded data points, from its start on May 10, 2026, through the most recent data. There have been no price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze. This lack of price action indicates that no new information or trading activity has influenced the market's valuation since its inception. The context notes that the Republican primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026, and as of mid-May, the race between candidates Alexandria Foxworth and Aaron Cherry has not yet prompted any re-evaluation from traders.
The most significant technical factor is the trading volume, which stands at zero contracts. This indicates that no trades have been executed in this market. The absence of volume suggests a highly illiquid market with little to no trader participation or conviction at this stage. Consequently, it is not possible to identify any meaningful support or resistance levels, as these are established through buying and selling pressure, which has not occurred. The 46.0% price point is simply the initial offer and does not reflect a consensus formed through active trading. The chart suggests that market sentiment is currently undeveloped, as traders have not yet engaged with the market to establish a price that reflects their collective expectations for the outcome of the NY-05 Republican primary.
  • Alexandria Foxworth filed as a Republican candidate for the NY-05 primary.
  • Foxworth's campaign reported no financial contributions as of May 17, 2026.
  • No endorsements or public polling are reported for Foxworth's campaign.
  • George Marsh appears to lack verifiable evidence of a contemporary political campaign.
  • Another Republican candidate may emerge given the current lack of activity.
  • The Republican primary for NY-05 is scheduled for June 23, 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Alexandria Foxworth 0.0% 53.1% The model projects Alexandria Foxworth as the likely Republican nominee for NY-05.
George Marsh 0.0% 47.0% The model indicates George Marsh is less likely to be the Republican nominee for NY-05.

Current Context

New York's 5th Congressional District lacks a confirmed Republican nominee. As of May 17, 2026, no official Republican nominee has been selected for the district, with the Republican primary election scheduled for June 23, 2026 [1][2]. Currently, Alexandria Foxworth and Aaron Cherry are identified as candidates running in the Republican primary for the seat [2].
The 2026 election cycle in New York has defined key dates. The primary election across New York is set for June 23, 2026, leading up to the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [3]. Concurrently, there is ongoing discussion regarding potential mid-decade redistricting within New York. However, as of mid-May 2026, no final changes to district maps have been finalized for the 2026 election cycle [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 (June 23 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Upcoming Elections 2026 | NYC Board of Electionsvote.nyc
  4. 4Hakeem Jeffries pushes New York to join redistricting battlegothamist.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if Alexandria Foxworth wins the Republican Party nomination for the 2026 NY-05 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on May 10, 2026, and will close either upon her nomination or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 am EDT. Outcomes are verified from the Republican and Democratic Party websites, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing, and insider trading is prohibited for certain individuals.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Alexandria Foxworth $0.52 $0.54 0%
George Marsh $0.52 $0.54 0%

Market Discussion

As of May 17, 2026, no candidates have declared for the Republican primary in New York's 5th Congressional District, which is scheduled for June 23, 2026 [1][2]. Existing prediction markets for NY-05 focus on the general election winner, with traders heavily favoring the Democratic candidate, rather than the Republican primary [3][4]. Public and media attention regarding 2026 New York Republican primaries is primarily directed towards other districts, such as the 21st Congressional District [5][6][7][8][9][10][11].

Sources (11)
  1. 1New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 (June 23 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3NY-05 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketworldcoin.polymarket.com
  4. 4NY-05 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5A look inside a North Country primary feudpolitico.com
  6. 6Trump pick could fumble Stefanik's seat for GOPnewsday.com
  7. 7NY-21: Meet the assemblyman and the CEO fighting to win over GOP votersnorthcountrypublicradio.org
  8. 8Campaign Countdown: Candidates vie to fill Stefanik’s North Country congressional seatwcax.com
  9. 9NY's Republican Party backs Smullen in race to replace Stefanik | NCPR Newsnorthcountrypublicradio.org
  10. 10Constantino, Smullen swap criticism in NY-21 raceyahoo.com
  11. 11Dueling polls show different leaders in 21st Congressional District Republican primarywwnytv.com

4. How do Alexandria Foxworth's and George Marsh's platforms compare on key local issues for NY-05 voters?

Alexandria Foxworth's CandidacyRegistered Republican for U.S. House, NY-05, 2026 election. Filed March 20, 2026 [1][2]
Alexandria Foxworth's PlatformNo details available from bound facts [1]
George Marsh's CampaignNo verifiable evidence of contemporary political campaign or platform [3]
Alexandria Foxworth is a registered candidate, but her platform is unknown. She is identified as a Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in New York's 5th Congressional District for the 2026 election, having filed her statement of candidacy on March 20, 2026 [1][2]. However, the available research does not contain any information regarding her platform or specific positions on key local issues relevant to NY-05 voters.
George Marsh's candidacy lacks verifiable evidence and platform details. While a "George Marsh" is mentioned on some prediction market platforms as a Republican candidate for NY-05, there is no verifiable evidence from the research of a contemporary political campaign or a platform for a candidate by that name in the district [3]. It is suggested that this name might refer to historical figures or potentially be a data error within the prediction market's directory [3].
A platform comparison is not possible due to insufficient information. Consequently, due to the absence of information on either candidate's platform or stances on local issues, a direct comparison between Alexandria Foxworth and George Marsh cannot be made based on the available facts.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Alexandria Foxworth - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3George Marsh | NY-05 Republican nominee? - Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com

5. What key endorsements from local or national Republican figures could significantly impact the NY-05 primary before June 23, 2026?

Endorsements ReportedNone for NY-05 Republican primary as of May 17, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Official Candidates DeclaredNone for NY-05 Republican primary by June 23, 2026 election [5][6][7]
NY-05 Primary ActivityLacks significant activity or competitive candidates [8][9]
No significant endorsements reported for NY-05 Republican primary. As of May 17, 2026, no endorsements from local or national Republican figures have been reported that could significantly impact the NY-05 primary before June 23, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This situation aligns with the absence of officially declared candidates for the Republican primary in New York's 5th Congressional District for the June 23, 2026, election [5][6][7].
Low primary activity reflects NY-05's strong Democratic lean. The Republican nominee market for NY-05 currently exhibits minimal activity and lacks competitive candidates, consistent with the district's strong Democratic lean [8][9]. While active primary competition and high-profile endorsements have been reported in other New York districts, no such activity or endorsements have been observed for the NY-05 Republican primary [1][2][3][4]. Consequently, the available information is insufficient to identify specific key endorsements for this primary.
Sources (9)
  1. 1Trump pick could fumble Stefanik's seat for GOPnewsday.com
  2. 2NY-21: Meet the assemblyman and the CEO fighting to win over GOP votersnorthcountrypublicradio.org
  3. 3Blakeman endorses Buller for Congresseaglenewsonline.com
  4. 4Tenney endorses Bullereaglenewsonline.com
  5. 5New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 (June 23 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7[PDF] Certification for June 23, 2026 Primary Electionelections.ny.gov
  8. 8NY-05 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  9. 9Which party will win the House race for NY-05? | Prediction Markets...coinbase.com

6. What does recent campaign finance data reveal about the viability and support for Alexandria Foxworth's campaign ahead of the 2026 primary?

Candidate Filing DateMarch 20, 2026 [1][2]
Campaign Contributions$0 as of May 17, 2026 [2][3]
NY-05 Democratic Probability91% [4][5]
Alexandria Foxworth's campaign shows minimal financial activity ahead of the primary. She is a declared Republican candidate for New York's 5th Congressional District in the 2026 election, having filed her Statement of Candidacy on March 20, 2026 [1][2]. As of May 17, 2026, her campaign finance reports indicate $0 in contributions [2][3]. This suggests a lack of significant financial support or active fundraising for her campaign in the lead-up to the June 23, 2026 primary [2][3].
Prediction markets do not reflect viability for Foxworth's candidacy. There is no specific market for the "NY-05 Republican nominee" that lists Alexandria Foxworth as a candidate [4][5]. Broader markets for the NY-05 House election currently assign a 91% probability to the Democratic Party, which highlights the strong partisan lean of the district [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1955750docquery.fec.gov
  2. 2Alexandria Foxworth - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 32026 U.S. House elections in New York district 5 - All politics is local!opencampaign.com
  4. 4NY-05 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5All Political Prediction Markets — Live Odds | ElectionOddselectionodds.live

7. What public polling data is available for the NY-05 Republican primary as of Q2 2026, and what are its limitations?

Polling Data Availability (NY-05 GOP Primary)None available as of May 17, 2026 [1][2][3]
NY-05 Republican Primary DateJune 23, 2026 [1][2][3]
NY-05 Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI)D+24 [1][2][3]
No public polling data exists for the NY-05 Republican primary. As of May 17, 2026, no public polling data has been released for the New York 5th Congressional District (NY-05) Republican primary, which is scheduled for June 23, 2026 [1][2][3]. While polling data is available for other New York Republican primaries, such as the NY-21 race, this information is not applicable to the NY-05 district [4][5][6]. The NY-05 district is heavily Democratic, as indicated by its Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+24, and features candidate Alexandria Foxworth for the Republican primary [1][2][3].
Primary polling faces common limitations that affect data reliability. Limitations inherent in primary polling often include small sample sizes, potential biases from campaign-commissioned surveys, and a high proportion of undecided voters [4][5][6]. Additionally, there is no specific, widely tracked prediction market for the "NY-05 Republican nominee" as of May 2026, although prediction markets do exist for the broader NY-05 House election winner [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 (June 23 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Dueling polls show different leaders in 21st Congressional District Republican primarywwnytv.com
  5. 5Stefanik Pollster GrayHouse Polls NY-21 - New York Politicograyhouse.com
  6. 6NY CD 21 - GOP Primary - Executive Summary - April 20 Copy | PDF | Opinion Poll | Electionsscribd.com
  7. 7NY-05 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com

8. What evidence exists of George Marsh's grassroots organizing and voter outreach efforts within NY-05 for the 2026 cycle?

Campaign Grassroots ActivityNo publicly available evidence of specific efforts [1]
Candidate StatusRepublican candidate for NY-05 in 2026 [1]
NY-05 District LeaningHeavily favored toward Democratic Party [2]
George Marsh is identified as a 2026 NY-05 Republican candidate. He is listed as a candidate for New York's 5th Congressional District in the 2026 election cycle on prediction market platforms [1]. However, there is no publicly available evidence of specific grassroots organizing or voter outreach efforts, such as canvassing or phone banking, being conducted by George Marsh's campaign for the 2026 cycle [1].
NY-05 is a heavily Democratic district. The political landscape of New York's 5th Congressional District is notably challenging for Republican candidates, as the district is heavily favored toward the Democratic Party [2]. While prediction markets exist for the NY-05 House election, they primarily focus on identifying the general election winner rather than specifically resolving the Republican nominee [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1George Marsh | NY-05 Republican nominee? - Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  2. 2NY-05 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Republican primary for New York's 5th Congressional District is scheduled for June 23, 2026, with the general election on November 3, 2026 [1]. Alexandria Foxworth is identified as a candidate in the 2026 Republican primary [1][2][3].
Prediction markets for the NY-05 House election overwhelmingly favor the Democratic Party, showing a 94% probability as of May 2026 [4][5]. This reflects the district's strong Democratic lean [4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (5)
  1. 1New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 (June 23 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2New York's 5th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3New York's 5th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4NY-05 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketworldcoin.polymarket.com
  5. 5NY-05 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com