KY-06 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- David Kloiber shows overwhelming financial advantage through significant self-funding.
- Cherlynn Stevenson faces critically weak finances, severely limiting campaign resources.
- No specific endorsement details available for either Democratic primary candidate.
- Campaign ad spending information for the May 21 primary is currently absent.
- Publicly available polling data for the KY-06 primary does not exist.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Ausbrooks | 0.1% | 0.1% | Jimmy Ausbrooks currently lacks significant campaign momentum or fundraising. |
| Zach Dembo | 30.0% | 31.8% | Zach Dembo is a strong contender with significant support in the primary election. |
| Cherlynn Stevenson | 57.0% | 41.7% | Cherlynn Stevenson is a leading candidate with strong support in the primary. |
| Harvey Carroll | 1.0% | 1.3% | Harvey Carroll is a lesser-known candidate with limited campaign resources. |
| David Kloiber | 8.0% | 23.7% | David Kloiber possesses an overwhelming financial advantage in the primary race. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to YES if Cherlynn Stevenson wins the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2026 KY-06 House seat, as verified by the Democratic and Republican Parties; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on March 29, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT, and will close after the outcome occurs, with projected payout 30 minutes later. If the nomination does not happen, the market will close by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 am EDT, and employees of the source agencies are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cherlynn Stevenson | $0.63 | $0.44 | 57% |
| Zach Dembo | $0.30 | $0.71 | 30% |
| David Kloiber | $0.08 | $0.98 | 8% |
| Erin Petrey | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Harvey Carroll | $0.07 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Corey Edwards | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Jimmy Ausbrooks | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Who Has Stronger Campaign Finances: David Kloiber or Cherlynn Stevenson?
| Kloiber Total Receipts | $1,570,305.81 (as of year-end 2023) [^] |
|---|---|
| Kloiber Cash on Hand | $1,053,744.02 (as of year-end 2023) [^] |
| Stevenson Cash on Hand | $57,485.64 (as of year-end 2023) [^] |
5. Which KY-06 Democratic Candidate Has Secured Key Endorsements?
| Local AFL-CIO Endorsement | Not available in research [N/A] [^] |
|---|---|
| Fayette County Democratic Leadership Endorsement | Not available in research [N/A] [^] |
| Majority Democratic State Legislator Endorsement | Not available in research [N/A] [^] |
6. Which Campaign Leads in Ad Spending for May 21 Primary?
| TV Ad Buy Information | Specific expenditure data for largest TV ad reservations not provided (FCC Public Inspection Files [^] needed). |
|---|---|
| Digital Ad Buy Information | Specific expenditure data for largest digital ad reservations not provided (Meta Ad Library [^] needed). |
| Campaign Strategy Assessment | Superior strategy for late-breaking name ID could not be inferred due to unprovided data [^]. |
7. Is there specific polling data for KY-06 Democratic primary in Fayette County?
| Fayette Co. KY-06 Primary Polling | No statistically significant lead identified (based on provided sources) [^] |
|---|---|
| KY 2026 Democratic Voter Trends | Emerson Polling noted "Booker Gains Among Democratic Voters" [^] |
| Related KY-06 Election Resources | Prediction market, general election details, past 2024 primary results [^] |
8. Can KY-06 Democratic Primary Financial Reports Reveal Burn Rates?
| Pre-election Report Purpose | Crucial for disclosing campaign financial activity [^] |
|---|---|
| Mandatory Report Citations | Regularly issued by FEC for non-filing [^] |
| Recent Citation Examples | Notifications in May 2024 for various elections [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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