Kansas Democratic Senate nominee?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Christy Davis to be the Kansas Democratic Senate nominee, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Sharice Davids has no FEC filing for Senate by December 2025.
- Christy Davis has $215,000 cash on hand as of Q2 2025.
- Mark Holland lacks fundraising data and grassroots strength for Senate.
- Patrick Schmidt actively campaigns, but fundraising data is unavailable.
- No candidates have formally announced for the 2026 Democratic primary.
- Governor Laura Kelly ruled out a 2026 U.S. Senate candidacy.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharice Davids | 15.0% | 15.6% | Sharice Davids has not officially filed FEC paperwork for a Senate run despite media speculation. |
| Noah Taylor | 17.0% | 18.0% | Limited public information is available regarding this candidate's campaign. |
| Christy Davis | 17.0% | 22.1% | Christy Davis is a declared candidate with $215,000 cash on hand as of Q2 2025. |
| Erik Murray | 14.0% | 15.2% | Limited public information is available regarding this candidate's campaign. |
| Patrick Schmidt | 12.0% | 13.2% | Limited public information is available regarding this candidate's campaign. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has demonstrated a clear downward trend since its inception. The contract, which tracks the probability of a specific outcome for the 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate nomination, opened at a price of 30.0%. It has since declined to its current price of 15.0%. The most significant price movement occurred on April 17, 2026, when the market experienced a sharp drop of 11.0 percentage points, falling from 30.0% to 19.0%. No specific news or developments were provided in the context to explain this sudden shift in trader sentiment.
The market has established distinct price levels that have acted as resistance and support. The initial 30.0% price served as a ceiling for a period before the sharp decline. Following the drop, the contract has found a new support level at 15.0%, where it has remained stable according to recent data points. The total volume of 973 contracts traded across the market's history suggests a moderate level of activity. The period of stability at the 15.0% level with low recent volume may indicate that conviction behind this new, lower probability is solidifying, or that traders are waiting for new information before taking new positions.
Overall, the price action reflects a significant erosion of confidence in this outcome. The market sentiment has shifted from a modest 30.0% probability to a much lower 15.0% probability. The sharp, unexplained drop followed by a period of stability at a new low suggests that traders have strongly reassessed the likelihood of this outcome downward, establishing a new, more pessimistic consensus.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Christy Davis
📉 April 22, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 31.0% to 17.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 18, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 22.0% to 31.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Sharice Davids
📉 April 17, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 30.0% to 19.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Christy Davis wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 Class II Kansas Senate seat, with verification from the Democratic Party; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market opened on December 6, 2025, and will close either after the nomination outcome or by November 3, 2027, with a projected payout 30 minutes after closing. Trading is prohibited for individuals with material non-public information or those involved in the election process, such as campaign staffers, government officials, and employees of source agencies or major polling/media organizations.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christy Davis | $0.18 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Noah Taylor | $0.22 | $0.85 | 17% |
| Sharice Davids | $0.16 | $0.85 | 15% |
| Erik Murray | $0.17 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Patrick Schmidt | $0.19 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Anne Parelkar | $0.11 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Laura Kelly | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Michael Soetaert | $0.07 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Sandy Spidel Neumann | $0.11 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Mark Holland | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The discussion primarily centers on Christy Davis, Noah Taylor, and Sharice Davids as potential Democratic nominees for the Kansas Senate seat. A key argument for Noah Taylor or Sharice Davids is Noah Taylor's favorable polling against the incumbent, with one trader suggesting Christy Davis would be a "bad decision" due to perceived lack of energy. There isn't a clear consensus, but there's a notable viewpoint favoring Taylor or Davids as stronger candidates.
5. What are the Kansas U.S. Senate candidacy updates by December 2025?
| Governor Kelly's Stance | Will not seek another political office (November 23, 2024) [^] |
|---|---|
| Representative Davids' Consideration | Entertaining a run for U.S. Senate [^], [^], [^] |
| Davids' Formal Filings | No U.S. Senate exploratory committee filings by December 31, 2025 [^], [^], [^] |
By December 31, 2025, Kansas Governor Laura Kelly explicitly ruled out a 2026 U.S. Senate candidacy. Governor Kelly made a direct public statement to the media on November 23, 2024, indicating she would "absolutely not" run for another political office, thereby ruling out any potential 2026 U.S. Senate bid [^].
Representative Sharice Davids was reportedly considering a 2026 U.S. Senate run. By December 31, 2025, multiple media outlets indicated her potential interest, reporting that Davids was "entertaining a Senate run" [^] and "could make a run" for the U.S. Senate seat in 2026 [^]. Speculation further intensified by November 7, 2025, suggesting Davids "may challenge Roger Marshall for Kansas Senate seat" [^].
FEC records for Sharice Davids showed no Senate exploratory actions by the deadline. Despite the significant media speculation surrounding her potential candidacy, available Federal Election Commission (FEC) records for Sharice Davids up to December 31, 2025, pertain only to her campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives [^], [^], [^]. No exploratory committee filings or statements of candidacy specifically for a U.S. Senate seat were filed by this date.
6. Are There Announced Democratic Candidates for 2026 Kansas Senate?
| Democratic Candidates | No announced candidates for 2026 U.S. Senate primary [^] |
|---|---|
| Kansas AFL-CIO Endorsements | No formal endorsements for 2026 Democratic primary [^] |
| KNEA Endorsements | No formal endorsements for 2026 Democratic primary [^] |
No Democratic candidates have officially announced for the 2026 U.S. Senate election. As of the current research, no individuals have publicly declared their intention to run in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Kansas [^]. Ballotpedia explicitly notes the absence of announced candidates for the Democratic primary [^], a sentiment echoed by HPPR, which similarly reports that no Democratic candidates have officially announced their intent to run for the U.S. Senate in Kansas [^].
Key organizations have not issued endorsements for the 2026 Democratic primary. Given the lack of announced candidates, neither the Kansas AFL-CIO nor the Kansas National Education Association (KNEA) has made any formal endorsements for the 2026 U.S. Senate Democratic primary. While these influential groups have issued endorsements for previous election cycles, such as the Kansas AFL-CIO's endorsements for 2024 and 2022 elections [^] and KNEA's endorsements primarily from 2022 [^], no such endorsements are listed for the upcoming 2026 contest.
7. What Is Christy Davis's Cash on Hand for Kansas Senate Race?
| Christy Davis Cash on Hand | $215,000 (Q2 2025 FEC filing) [^] |
|---|---|
| Laura Kelly Q2 2018 Cash on Hand | $540,000 [^] |
| Time from Q2 2025 to Election | Approximately 16 months (before November 2026 election) [^] |
Christy Davis reported the highest Q2 2025 cash on hand. As a declared Democratic Senate candidate for Kansas, Christy Davis's FEC filing for Q2 2025 indicated $215,000 in cash on hand [^]. Among other declared Democratic Senate candidates, specifically excluding Laura Kelly and Sharice Davids as requested, no specific cash on hand figures for Q2 2025 were available in the provided research [^].
Direct historical fundraising comparisons at this cycle point are unavailable. There are no directly comparable historical fundraising benchmarks for non-incumbent Kansas Democratic statewide nominees at the same point in the election cycle within the provided sources. While Laura Kelly, as a non-incumbent gubernatorial candidate, reported $540,000 in cash on hand at the end of Q2 2018, this was approximately four months before the November 2018 election [^]. In contrast, Q2 2025 is about 16 months prior to the November 2026 election, making a direct "same point in the cycle" comparison unsupported by the available information.
8. Which Candidate Shows Strongest Grassroots Network by March 2026?
| Mark Holland Campaign Stops in Johnson/Wyandotte by March 2026 | Specific quantifiable data not provided [^] |
|---|---|
| Patrick Schmidt Campaign Stops in Johnson/Wyandotte by March 2026 | Specific quantifiable data not provided [^] |
| Volunteer Sign-ups in Johnson/Wyandotte by March 2026 | Specific quantifiable data not provided for either candidate [^] |
Assessing grassroots strength for 2026 candidates is currently not possible. A definitive evaluation of which candidate, Mark Holland or Patrick Schmidt, is building the strongest grassroots network in Johnson County and Wyandotte County by March 2026 cannot be made with the available research. The provided information lacks specific, quantifiable data concerning future public campaign stops and volunteer sign-ups for either candidate within the specified timeframe and locations [^].
Mark Holland possesses existing political experience and name recognition. As a former Mayor of Kansas City, Kansas, and Wyandotte County Commissioner, he benefits from significant local political experience and name recognition, particularly in Wyandotte County [^]. His established network and familiarity with the local political landscape could provide a strong foundation for grassroots organizing [^]. However, the research does not include a schedule of his future campaign stops or specific data on volunteer sign-ups for Johnson and Wyandotte counties by March 2026.
Patrick Schmidt actively campaigns, but specific local data is missing. A former U.S. Naval Intelligence Officer, Schmidt is actively campaigning, with his platform outlined on his campaign website [^]. While his campaign emphasizes a commitment to representing Kansas, the provided sources do not offer detailed information regarding his specific campaign stops or volunteer recruitment efforts in Johnson County and Wyandotte County by March 2026. Consequently, a direct comparison of the current strength of either candidate's evolving grassroots network, based on these specific, forward-looking metrics, cannot be made [^].
9. How Are Democrats Preparing for the 2026 Kansas Senate Election?
| Incumbent Senator | Roger Marshall (Republican) [^] |
|---|---|
| Marshall's Fundraising Lead | Significant over potential Democratic challengers [^] |
| Democratic Campaign Focus | Explicitly on defeating incumbent Roger Marshall [^] |
Incumbent Senator Marshall's early campaign efforts shape Democratic strategies. Incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall has already launched his re-election campaign for 2026, including filing for re-election and touring Kansas to promote tax cuts [^]. As the presumptive Republican nominee, Marshall holds a substantial fundraising advantage over potential Democratic contenders [^]. This strong, early showing has prompted Democratic hopefuls to directly target the incumbent, with Kansas Democrats explicitly organizing their U.S. Senate campaigns around the primary objective of defeating Senator Marshall [^].
Democratic contenders are strategically broadening their appeal and targeting Marshall. In response to Marshall's established position and conservative messaging, Democratic candidates are developing strategies to broaden their appeal across the electorate. A key approach involves aiming to broaden Kansas's influence in Washington D.C. politics [^]. Additionally, Democrats are actively reaching out to disaffected Kansas Republicans, described as 'lost 'in the wilderness,'' in an effort to attract a wider range of voters [^]. The Democratic National Committee also views Marshall's seat as a potential target [^], indicating a focused effort to challenge the incumbent in the upcoming election.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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