CA-38 primary: Who will advance?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Hilda Solis is most likely to advance in the CA-38 primary, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Hilda Solis appears to be the frontrunner for the CA-38 primary.
- Solis's frontrunner position is supported by endorsements and fundraising.
- Pedro Casas's chances likely rely on a fragmented Democratic vote.
- Monica Sanchez appears to show stronger campaign viability than Erik Lutz.
- Comparative fundraising and spending data for 2026 is currently unavailable.
- The CA-38 primary election is scheduled for June 2, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hilda Solis | 98.0% | 98.1% | Hilda Solis appears to benefit from high name recognition and established support in the district. |
| Monica Sanchez | 34.0% | 18.4% | Monica Sanchez is likely appealing to a specific voter base, but faces strong competition. |
| Pedro Casas | 63.0% | 40.5% | Pedro Casas has built a significant campaign, attracting a broad segment of primary voters. |
| Erik Lutz | 9.9% | 4.0% | Erik Lutz appears to be a lesser-known candidate, struggling to gain traction. |
Current Context
The California 38th Congressional District primary is set for June 2, 2026. This election will precede the general election on November 3, 2026, with the candidate filing deadline having passed on March 6, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. California utilizes a top-two primary system, meaning the two candidates who receive the highest number of votes, irrespective of their party affiliation, will advance to the general election [^][^].
Four candidates are running in this open, newly redistricted race. The field includes Erik Lutz (D), Monica Sanchez (D), and Hilda Solis (D), along with Pedro Casas (R), in a race without an incumbent [^][^]. Mid-decade redistricting, enacted after California Proposition 50 was approved in November 2025, has reshaped the 38th Congressional District boundaries, generally making some districts more favorable to Democrats [^][^]. Major political handicappers such as The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball consistently rate this district as "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" [^][^]. Notably, Hilda Solis has received the endorsement of the state Democratic Party [^].
Prediction markets indicate Hilda Solis is the frontrunner for advancement. Current market data shows Solis with a high probability of both advancing to the general election and securing the first-place position in the primary [^][^][^]. While Pedro Casas and Monica Sanchez are also active in these markets, their probabilities are notably lower compared to Solis [^]. Erik Lutz is also listed as a candidate in these prediction markets [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market's price action has been completely static, exhibiting a perfectly sideways trend since its inception. The probability has remained unchanged at its starting point of 34.0%, with no fluctuations, spikes, or drops recorded. The market has not established any price range, as the high and low prices are identical to the current price. This lack of movement indicates that no new information or events related to the CA-38 primary have been significant enough to influence the market's initial assessment, or more likely, that the market has not yet seen any activity.
The most telling feature of this chart is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the 34.0% price does not reflect any collective market sentiment or conviction. Instead, it represents an initial price point that has yet to be challenged or confirmed by traders. Consequently, it is impossible to identify any support or resistance levels, as no price discovery has occurred. The chart suggests a dormant market, where participants have not yet taken positions, despite the passing of the candidate filing deadline. The market sentiment is currently neutral and undefined, awaiting the first trades to provide a directional signal.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Monica Sanchez advances in the 2026 CA-38 primary, with the outcome verified by the California Secretary of State; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on April 7, 2026, and will close after the outcome occurs, or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 am EDT. It is eligible for accelerated determination if media organizations reach a consensus on the advancing candidates and can close early if the event occurs.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hilda Solis | $0.99 | $0.07 | 98% |
| Pedro Casas | $0.70 | $0.37 | 63% |
| Monica Sanchez | $0.39 | $0.68 | 34% |
| Erik Lutz | $0.08 | $0.99 | 10% |
Market Discussion
The CA-38 primary is a top-two system with no incumbent, meaning the two highest vote-getters among candidates like Erik Lutz (D), Monica Sanchez (D), Hilda Solis (D), and Pedro Casas (R) will advance [^][^]. Hilda Solis (D) is strongly favored to advance, with prediction market data from April 18, 2026, indicating a 96.7¢ likelihood of advancing and an 88¢ likelihood of coming in first place, and has been endorsed by the state Democratic Party [^][^][^][^]. Pedro Casas (R) appears to have the next highest chance of advancing at 63¢, followed by Monica Sanchez (D) at 34¢, and Erik Lutz (D) at 9.9¢ [^].
4. What evidence from endorsements and fundraising reports supports Hilda Solis's position as the frontrunner to advance from the June 2026 primary?
| Quarterly Funds Raised (Hilda Solis) | $598,870 (Quiver Quantitative) [^] |
|---|---|
| Cash on Hand (Hilda Solis) | $398,000 to $1.18 million (Quiver Quantitative, Ballotpedia) [^][^] |
| Funds Raised (Monica Sanchez) | $51,000 (Quiver Quantitative) [^] |
Hilda Solis is a leading candidate for the CA-38 congressional primary. She is widely considered a frontrunner for the June 2, 2026 primary, largely attributed to her significant fundraising advantage and key endorsements [^][^][^][^][^]. Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo affirmed her frontrunner status in August 2025, describing her as a 'force of nature' given her background [^]. The CA-38 primary is for an open seat, which holds a Solid D rating [^][^][^][^].
Solis demonstrates a significant financial lead over her primary competitors. According to Quiver Quantitative, she has raised $598,870 quarterly [^], while Ballotpedia reports her fundraising at $441,244 [^]. Her reported cash on hand varies from $398,000 to $1.18 million [^][^]. In contrast, her primary rivals, Monica Sanchez and Erik Lutz, have raised substantially less, with $51,000 and $34,000 respectively [^].
5. How do the policy platforms and political experience of Democratic candidates Hilda Solis and Monica Sanchez compare ahead of the June 2026 primary?
| Hilda Solis Major Federal Role | U.S. Secretary of Labor [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Monica Sanchez Current Role | Pico Rivera City Councilmember, Mayor Pro Tem [^][^][^] |
| Hilda Solis Policy Focus | Health-equity and affordable healthcare [^] |
Hilda Solis and Monica Sanchez differ significantly in experience and policy focus as Democratic candidates for the CA-38 primary in 2026. Solis possesses a robust background in federal and county-level governance, while Sanchez's political career has primarily developed within municipal government [^]. These differing levels of service are reflected in their policy priorities; Solis emphasizes broad progressive and healthcare initiatives, whereas Sanchez concentrates on local affordability and infrastructure challenges.
Hilda Solis's extensive experience shapes her broad progressive policy agenda. Her political career includes serving as a U.S. House member for eight terms, an LA County Supervisor, and a former U.S. Secretary of Labor [^][^]. Solis's campaign platform prioritizes health-equity and affordable healthcare, advocating for the expansion of promotoras/community health workers and the strategic leveraging of federal funding [^]. Her agenda also champions wider progressive causes, specifically focusing on workers' rights and safety [^][^].
Monica Sanchez's local experience informs her community-focused policy proposals. Her political experience includes her current role as a Pico Rivera City Councilmember and mayor pro tem, along with prior service on planning and parks/recreation commissions [^][^][^]. Sanchez's policy messaging is primarily centered on local affordability, addressing issues such as stabilizing mobile home rents and supporting affordable housing and mixed-use developments [^][^][^]. She also advocates for clean water filtration, public health, and safety actions, and has proposed federal clean energy and water infrastructure, including wildfire prevention, in various questionnaire responses [^][^][^].
6. What potential catalysts could improve Republican Pedro Casas's chances of securing a top-two finish in the June 2026 primary?
| Primary system | Top-two (June 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| District partisan lean | Solid Democratic (D+10 Cook PVI) [^][^] |
| Declared Republican candidates | One (Pedro Casas) [^][^] |
Republican Pedro Casas's top-two finish relies on a fragmented Democratic vote. His prospects in the June 2026 primary for California's 38th Congressional District depend significantly on a crowded Democratic field dividing the vote in a top-two primary system, especially given there is no incumbent [^][^][^]. With at least three Democrats—Erik Lutz, Monica Sanchez, and Hilda Solis—already declared, a fragmented vote among them could open a path for Casas to advance [^][^]. As the sole declared Republican, Casas is positioned to consolidate the Republican base and appeal to conservative-leaning independents, a strategy bolstered by his endorsement from the California Republican Assembly [^][^].
Casas targets broader appeal through key issues and personal background. His campaign strategy focuses on core issues such as combating inflation, reducing crime, securing the southern border, and improving education, aiming to resonate with a wider electorate, including independents and swing voters [^][^]. Leveraging his background as a retired U.S. Army Colonel and clinical psychologist, Casas emphasizes leadership in addressing current challenges [^]. Given the district's substantial Hispanic and Asian populations, a tailored approach on economic concerns and public safety could further expand his voter base beyond traditional Republican support [^]. Despite these strategic efforts, securing a top-two spot remains a significant challenge due to the district's "Solid Democratic" (D+10 Cook PVI) leaning [^][^].
7. What do the latest FEC filings reveal about the comparative fundraising and spending between the campaigns of Hilda Solis, Pedro Casas, and Monica Sanchez?
| Comparative Analysis for 2026 Cycle | Not possible due to insufficient information in latest FEC filings [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Hilda Solis Candidacy | Running for U.S. House, CA-38, for 2025 election(s) [^] |
| Missing Financial Data | Cycle-to-date 2026 receipts/disbursements totals for all mentioned candidates [^][^][^][^] |
Comparative fundraising and spending data for 2026 is currently unavailable. A comprehensive comparative analysis of fundraising and spending for the 2026 election cycle involving Hilda Solis, Pedro Casas, and Monica Sanchez cannot be performed using the latest FEC filings. The available information from these filings does not provide the necessary financial data to conduct such a comparison [^][^][^][^].
Hilda Solis's FEC filing lacks essential 2026 financial figures. While Hilda Solis is confirmed as a candidate for U.S. House, California District 38, for the 2025 elections, her campaign committee, "Hilda Solis For Congress" (C00917542), has an FEC Form 2 filing (H6CA38139) that does not include the 2026 cycle-to-date receipts and disbursements required for a comparative financial assessment [^].
Pedro Casas and Monica Sanchez also lack complete 2026 data. Similarly, FEC pages for Pedro Casas (H4CA31212) and Monica Sanchez (H6CA38147) were located, along with her committee "Monica for Congress" (C00765719). However, these filings also lack the essential 2026 financial summary figures, specifically total receipts and total disbursements, which are crucial for a comprehensive comparative fundraising and spending analysis [^][^][^].
8. Beyond the frontrunners, how do Erik Lutz and Monica Sanchez compare in terms of campaign viability, media presence, and name recognition in the district?
| Monica Sanchez Campaign Contributions | $51,475 (2026 CA-38 primary cycle) [^] |
|---|---|
| Erik Lutz Campaign Contributions | $0 (2026 primary cycle) [^] |
| Monica Sanchez Media Presence | Questionnaire published 2026-05-06 (local media) [^] |
Monica Sanchez appears to demonstrate stronger campaign viability for the CA-38 primary. For the 2026 primary cycle, Sanchez has reported campaign contributions of $51,475 and expenditures of $13,645 [^]. In contrast, Erik Lutz's 2026 primary cycle contributions are listed as $0, and his campaign website currently displays 'Launching Soon,' suggesting a less developed campaign infrastructure [^][^].
Sanchez also exhibits greater media presence and higher district name recognition. Local media published a questionnaire for Sanchez on May 6, 2026 [^]. Her public campaign materials highlight her service on the Pico Rivera City Council and community advocacy, which supports her public visibility within the district [^][^]. No specific information is available regarding Erik Lutz's media presence or direct indicators of his name recognition.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The primary election for CA-38’s top-two primary is consistently identified as occurring on June 2, 2026 [^] [^] [^] . This election is a critical event for candidates seeking to advance, while prediction markets for the general election reference November 3, 2026, for their resolution or end timing [^][^][^].
The candidate field for the CA-38 primary on June 2, 2026, includes Thomas Adams-Falconer, Monica Sanchez, and Hilda Solis, all Democrats, according to Ballotpedia [^] [^] [^] . Kalshi’s market for CA-38, identified as kxcaprimary-3826, specifically addresses who will advance in the primary, framing resolution based on whether named candidates progress, rather than on a general-election winner [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The primary election for CA-38’s top-two primary is consistently identified as occurring on June 2, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This election is a critical event for candidates seeking to advance, while prediction markets for the general election reference November 3, 2026, for their resolution or end timing [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The candidate field for the CA-38 primary on June 2, 2026, includes Thomas Adams-Falconer, Monica Sanchez, and Hilda Solis, all Democrats, according to Ballotpedia [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Kalshi’s market for CA-38, identified as kxcaprimary-3826, specifically addresses who will advance in the primary, framing resolution based on whether named candidates progress, rather than on a general-election winner [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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