CA-04 primary advancers?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Mandy Ghusar shows highest financial viability among challenger candidates.
- CA-04 2026 primary challengers currently lack key local party endorsements.
- Eric Jones leads in earned media among all primary challengers.
- The CA-04 primary features eight candidates, including three Democrats.
- The official candidate filing deadline is a key upcoming catalyst.
- The market price recently dropped by 9.5 percentage points.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson | 97.7% | 97.4% | The background research highlights the limited financial viability of identified challenger candidates in CA-04, and Mike Thompson is not listed among them, which reinforces the market's high probability that he will advance by suggesting a lack of strong, funded opposition. |
| Eric Jones | 90.0% | 93.0% | Eric Jones demonstrates the strongest financial viability among the CA-04 challenger candidates with $15,649.30 cash on hand and $0 debts owed, based on Q4 2023 FEC filings, which provides strong evidence supporting the market's high probability for him to advance. |
| Sharon Brown | 9.0% | 2.1% | Sharon Brown has the lowest cash on hand ($1,438) among listed CA-04 challengers according to Q4 2023 FEC filings, strongly indicating poor financial viability, which supports the market's low probability of 3.6% for her advancing and suggests it should not be higher. |
| Mandy Ghusar | 7.0% | 0.1% | The evidence indicates Mandy Ghusar is running for California's 8th Congressional District (CA-08), not CA-04, which strongly suggests her probability of advancing in CA-04 is effectively zero, making the market's 2.7% probability significantly too high. |
| Laurie MacKenzie | 7.0% | 1.3% | Laurie MacKenzie's cash on hand ($1,566) is significantly lower than leading CA-04 challenger Eric Jones ($15,649.30), providing strong evidence that her financial viability is very weak, thereby supporting the debiased market's low probability of 2.7% for her to advance, or suggesting it should be lower. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 21, 2026: 9.5pp drop
Price decreased from 96.5% to 87.0%
Outcome: Eric Jones
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Eric Jones advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary, and NO if he does not, with the outcome verified by the California Secretary of State. Trading began on December 22, 2025, and the market closes after the outcome occurs (or by November 3, 2027), with a projected payout 30 minutes after closing; persons employed by any Source Agencies are prohibited from trading this contract.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson | $0.98 | $0.02 | 98% |
| Eric Jones | $0.90 | $0.11 | 90% |
| Sharon Brown | $0.09 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Heath Fulkerson | $0.08 | $0.99 | 7% |
| Laurie MacKenzie | $0.07 | $0.99 | 7% |
| Mandy Ghusar | $0.08 | $0.99 | 7% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Which Challenger Candidates Show Strongest Financial Viability for Q4 2023?
| Mandy Ghusar (Cash on Hand) | $25,324 (Q4 2023 FEC filing) [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Eric Jones (Cash on Hand) | $15,649.30 (Q4 2023 FEC filing) [^], [^] |
| Heath Fulkerson (Cash on Hand) | $1,707 (Q4 2023 FEC filing) [^] |
6. Have CA-04 2026 Primary Challengers Secured Local Party Endorsements?
| County Party Endorsements Status | No active endorsements for CA-04 2026 primary challengers [^] |
|---|---|
| CAGOP Endorsements Status | No 2026 CA-04 primary challenger endorsements listed [^] |
| Regional PAC Endorsements Status | No major regional PAC endorsements identified [^] |
7. What Is Known About Eric Jones's Digital Ad Spend in CA-04?
| Prominent Challenger | Eric Jones is the most prominent challenger receiving consistent earned media mentions in CA-04 [^] |
|---|---|
| Campaign Finance Coverage | Media highlights 'sharply different fundraising paths' for Jones and incumbent [^] |
| Digital Ad Spend Data | Specific targeted digital ad spend data is not detailed in available sources [^] |
8. Could Republican Vote Splitting Impact CA-04 Primary Outcome?
9. What Are the Key Deadlines for California's 4th Congressional District Primary?
| Candidate Filing Period | February 5, 2026 to March 11, 2026, by 5:00 p.m. [^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Date | June 2, 2026 [^] |
| CA 4th Congressional District Debate Schedule | Not yet publicly available; gubernatorial debates are April 22 and April 28, 2026 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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