SOL price on Apr 29, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for SOL to be $43 or above on April 29, 2026, with a 93.3% model probability versus 0.0% market, driven by anticipated regulatory clarity and strong ecosystem growth despite potential FTX asset distributions.
1. Executive Verdict
- Regulatory clarity on SOL as non-security removes significant market uncertainty.
- Major asset managers filing for spot Solana ETFs is a bullish catalyst.
- Solana ecosystem projects strong growth in usage, revenue, and developer adoption.
- FTX asset distributions could create potential selling pressure by early 2026.
- Firedancer deployment and strong developer retention boost market share.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $86 or above | 9.0% | 13.1% | Ecosystem growth and potential spot ETFs could drive SOL prices higher. |
| $85 or above | 32.0% | 39.0% | Projected ecosystem growth and ETF interest provide bullish momentum for SOL. |
| $90 or above | 4.0% | 5.3% | Regulatory clarity and institutional interest are strong bullish drivers for SOL. |
| $98 or above | 1.0% | 1.3% | Strong ecosystem growth and ETF filings could significantly boost SOL's value. |
| $92 or above | 3.0% | 4.0% | Major asset managers filing for Solana ETFs signals strong institutional confidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market chart shows a complete lack of price movement. The market opened at a 99.0% probability for a "YES" outcome and has remained static at that level. There have been no price fluctuations, spikes, or drops since the market's inception. The overall trend is perfectly sideways, reflecting the absence of any trading activity. Due to the static nature of the price, there are no significant market movements to analyze or correlate with any external factors.
The most critical feature of this chart is the trading volume, which currently stands at zero contracts. This indicates that no trades have occurred, and the market is completely illiquid. The 99.0% price is likely the initial offering set by the market creator and does not represent a consensus formed by participant activity. The absence of volume suggests there is no market conviction behind this price. Without any trading, it is impossible to gauge the collective sentiment or confidence of traders.
Given the lack of trading history and price discovery, no support or resistance levels can be identified. The 99.0% price is the only data point and has not been tested by any buying or selling pressure. While the price on its own suggests extremely high confidence in a "YES" resolution, this sentiment is not validated by any market participation. In its current state, the chart reflects an inactive market with a price that has yet to be confirmed by any trading volume.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT on April 29, 2026, is above $83.9999; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 29, 2026. The official value is determined by averaging 60 SOLUSD_RTI prices from CF Benchmarks collected in the minute leading up to the closing time.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $80 or above | $1.00 | $0.05 | 91% |
| $82 or above | $0.98 | $0.13 | 89% |
| $83 or above | $0.90 | $0.21 | 65% |
| $84 or above | $0.68 | $0.45 | 39% |
| $85 or above | $0.39 | $0.69 | 32% |
| $87 or above | $0.10 | $0.98 | 10% |
| $86 or above | $0.22 | $0.90 | 9% |
| $90 or above | $0.05 | $1.00 | 4% |
| $92 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $98 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $100 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $101 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $102 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $103 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $104 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $105 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $106 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $107 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $108 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $109 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $110 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $111 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $112 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $113 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $114 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $115 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $116 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $117 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $43 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $44 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $45 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $46 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $47 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $48 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $49 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $50 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $51 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $52 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $53 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $54 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $55 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $56 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $57 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $58 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $59 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $60 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $61 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $62 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $63 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $64 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $65 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $66 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $67 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 0% |
| $70 or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 0% |
| $71 or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 0% |
| $72 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 0% |
| $73 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 0% |
| $74 or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 0% |
| $75 or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 0% |
| $76 or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 0% |
| $77 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 0% |
| $78 or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 0% |
| $79 or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 0% |
| $81 or above | $1.00 | $0.05 | 0% |
| $88 or above | $0.06 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $89 or above | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $91 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $93 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $94 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $95 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $96 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $97 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $99 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. How will FTX's SOL sales impact Solana's market in 2026?
| Recent SOL Transfer | Approximately $16 million [^] |
|---|---|
| Remaining SOL Holdings | About $1.1 billion (as of late 2023) [^] |
| Major Creditor Payout | $2.2 billion on March 31, 2026 [^] |
FTX plans significant SOL distributions to creditors by Q1 2026. The FTX estate is actively liquidating its Solana (SOL) holdings, including the recent unstaking and transfer of approximately $16 million in SOL [^]. While a precise monthly liquidation schedule through Q1 2026 is not fully detailed, the estate retains approximately $1.1 billion in SOL, which is subject to a vesting schedule extending until 2028 [^]. A key event is scheduled for March 31, 2026, when the FTX Recovery Trust intends to distribute an estimated $2.2 billion to creditors as its fourth payout [^]. This substantial distribution is expected to involve a portion of the estate's remaining SOL, potentially contributing to market supply pressure.
Growing Solana staking could mitigate FTX's liquidation supply pressure. The anticipated supply pressure from the FTX estate’s distributions may be counteracted by increasing demand for staking Solana. The current Solana staking ratio has reached 70% and is projected to increase to 75% within the next two years [^]. This growth in staked SOL could effectively reduce the circulating supply available on the open market, thereby absorbing some of the liquidation impact [^]. However, a comprehensive comparison is challenging due to the lack of specific data or projections regarding institutional demand, such as CME futures open interest for Solana, within the available research.
5. What Do 2025 Projections Show for Solana After Firedancer?
| Firedancer Client Status | Deployed on Solana mainnet [^] |
|---|---|
| 2025 Projected Usage Rank (DAU) | Top chain for usage [^] |
| 2025 Projected Transaction Fees | Exceed $600 million [^] |
Firedancer boosts Solana's 2025 market share projections. Jump Crypto's Firedancer client, developed over three years, has fully deployed and stabilized on Solana's mainnet, with an ambitious goal of enabling the network to handle up to 1 million transactions per second [^]. This significant milestone contributes to projections for year-end 2025, where data from platforms like Artemis positions Solana as a top blockchain for both daily active user usage and revenue [^].
Solana's fees poised to outpace Ethereum ecosystem. For transaction fees, Solana is projected to see its chain fees exceed $600 million in 2025, a figure expected to surpass both Ethereum and TRON [^]. This forecast places Solana ahead in total transaction fee generation compared to the broader Ethereum ecosystem. While specific comparative metrics for individual Ethereum Layer 2s against Solana's 2025 daily active user performance are not universally detailed across all sources, general sentiment and Artemis data suggest Solana leading across key usage and revenue metrics for the year 2025 [^].
6. What is the SEC's stance on SOL and Solana ETF filings?
| SEC Coinbase action dismissal | By 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Grayscale Solana Trust initial S-1 filing | March 25, 2025 [^] |
| Grayscale Solana Trust S-1/A filings | May 19, 2025, and June 3, 2025 [^] |
The SEC dismissed SOL security classification lawsuits against Coinbase and Kraken. By Q2 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced the dismissal of its civil enforcement action against Coinbase [^]. Similarly, the SEC officially dropped its cases against Kraken [^]. These dismissals occurred amidst the SEC admitting to "flaws" in past crypto enforcement and citing a misreading of securities law [^]. Consequently, the SEC is no longer actively pursuing the classification of SOL as a security within the context of these specific lawsuits.
Grayscale filed an S-1 for a spot Solana Trust by Q2 2025. This major US asset manager submitted the initial S-1 filing for the Grayscale Solana Trust on March 25, 2025 [^]. Subsequent S-1/A amendments were filed on May 19, 2025 [^] and June 3, 2025 [^]. All these filings for a spot Solana product occurred within or by Q2 2025, confirming the action by a major US asset manager.
7. What Are Solana's Projected Correlations and Volatility for 2026?
| Solana-Nasdaq 100 Correlation (2026) | 0.73 [^] |
|---|---|
| Solana-Bitcoin Correlation (2026) | 0.85 [^] |
| Implied Volatility (Q1 2026) | Approximately 85% annualized [^] |
Solana's price correlation with Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 is projected strong. During the 2024-2025 crypto cycle, Solana's 90-day price correlation with both Bitcoin (BTC) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is expected to remain robust. For 2026, Solana's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 is projected at 0.73 [^], and its cross-asset correlation with Bitcoin is anticipated to be 0.85 [^]. These strong correlations suggest Solana will largely mirror price movements in both the broader crypto market, as represented by Bitcoin, and traditional equity markets, specifically high-growth tech stocks indexed by the Nasdaq 100. The current 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and Solana is notably high at +0.89 [^].
Solana derivatives reflect high implied volatility for early 2026. Analysis of the forward volatility curve for SOL derivatives indicates significant market expectations for price fluctuations in Q1 2026. The implied volatility surface for SOL_USDT derivatives suggests an annualized implied volatility of approximately 85% for options expiring around that period [^]. This reflects the market's anticipation of substantial price movements for Solana as the 2024-2025 crypto cycle progresses and potentially culminates. Investors in Solana derivatives are therefore factoring in a high degree of uncertainty and potential for price swings into early 2026.
8. How is Solana Attracting Developers and Growing in Emerging Sectors?
| New Developers (2025) | 11,500 [^] |
|---|---|
| DePIN Protocols Revenue | $2.4 million in February 2026 [^] |
| RWA Ecosystem Value | $2.5 billion [^] |
Solana demonstrates strong success attracting and retaining new developers. In 2025, the Solana ecosystem attracted 11,500 new developers, establishing itself as a significant hub for talent. This places Solana as the second-largest attractor of new developers, behind only Ethereum, which saw 16,000 new developers during the same period [^]. This substantial growth highlights Solana's capacity to build and sustain a robust talent base, even in the absence of direct comparative data to specific competitors like Aptos, Sui, or modular blockchain stacks [^].
Solana is successfully attracting projects and capital in high-growth niches. Within the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) sector, Solana has fostered a thriving ecosystem, with its protocols generating $2.4 million in February 2026 [^]. This activity aligns with broader industry interest, as 150 venture capital firms participated in DePIN deals worth $744 million in 2026 [^]. Concurrently, Solana's tokenized Real World Asset (RWA) ecosystem has expanded significantly, growing to $1.66 billion and subsequently reaching an all-time high of $2.5 billion [^]. This sector, supported by at least 14 distinct RWA protocols [^], showcases Solana's success in attracting top-tier projects and capital to these emerging high-growth niches.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 29, 2026
- Expiration: May 06, 2026
- Closes: April 29, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSOLD-26APR2904-T99.9999: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXSOLD-26APR2904-T98.9999: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXSOLD-26APR2904-T97.9999: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXSOLD-26APR2904-T96.9999: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXSOLD-26APR2904-T95.9999: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
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