How low will Solana get in April?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Confirmed drop below $80 signals ongoing strong downside pressure.
- Significant leveraged long liquidation clusters exist at $70, $60, and $50.
- Solana's options market prices a higher premium for downside protection.
- Recent whale unstaking of $26.1 million adds to potential selling pressure.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $75.00 | 3.0% | 7.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Below $70.00 | 5.0% | 6.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Below $65.00 | 2.0% | 5.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Below $60.00 | 6.0% | 5.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Below $45.00 | 2.0% | 2.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Below $75.00
📉 April 22, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 22.0% to 8.0%
📉 April 20, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 34.0% to 20.0%
📈 April 18, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 9.0% to 22.0%
📉 April 17, 2026: 22.0pp drop
Price decreased from 31.0% to 9.0%
Outcome: Below $70.00
📉 April 16, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 13.0% to 3.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to Yes if the minute-by-minute trimmed mean price of Solana (SOL), derived from CF Benchmarks data (excluding the top and bottom 20% of values), ever falls below $75.00 between April 1, 2026, 12:06 PM EDT, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this price condition is not met by the deadline, or if CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration. The market closes early if the Yes condition is met, otherwise by the April 30th deadline.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $60.00 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Below $70.00 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Below $75.00 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Below $45.00 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Below $50.00 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Below $55.00 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Below $65.00 | $0.04 | $1.00 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Are Solana's Key Leveraged Long Liquidation Prices?
| Highest Liquidation Concentration 1 | ~$70.00 (Coinglass) [^] |
|---|---|
| Highest Liquidation Concentration 2 | ~$60.00 (Coinglass) [^] |
| Highest Liquidation Concentration 3 | ~$50.00 (Coinglass) [^] |
6. What Solana Whale Movements Impacted Major Exchanges Recently?
| SOL Deposit to Binance | $26.1 million (115,000 SOL) [^] |
|---|---|
| SOL Withdrawal from Coinbase | 268,395 SOL ($60.7 million) [^] |
| General Exchange Inflow (Last 7 Days) | 1.32 million SOL [^] |
7. What Does Solana's Options Market 25-Delta Skew Reveal?
| Solana 1-month 25-delta skew | Preference for downside protection (puts more expensive than calls) [^] |
|---|---|
| Deribit Solana 25-delta risk reversal changes | Not explicitly provided in Deribit reports [^] |
| Deribit Solana end-of-April implied volatility | Not detailed in Deribit reports [^] |
8. Are Solana's MoM Active Addresses & Fees Data Available?
| MoM Active Addresses (Artemis/The TIE) | Not directly available from provided research sources [^] |
|---|---|
| Solana Q1 Revenue Change | Plunged 68% year-on-year (HTX Insights) [^] |
| Solana Daily Active Addresses vs. Ethereum | Surpassed Ethereum (Blocklr) [^] |
9. What are Solana's (SOL) VPVR Technical Support Levels?
| Immediate Support Level | $85 [^] |
|---|---|
| Immediate Resistance Level | $90 [^] |
| Significance of $85 Level | Critical breakout zone and key factor for SOL's next move [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 08, 2026
- Closes: May 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 9 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSOLMINMON-SOL-26APR30-8000: YES (Apr 02, 2026)
- KXSOLMINMON-SOL-26MAR31-8000: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXSOLMINMON-SOL-26MAR31-7500: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXSOLMINMON-SOL-26MAR31-7000: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXSOLMINMON-SOL-26MAR31-6500: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
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