The completion of the first two 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal matches without the need for extra time has led to a notable repricing in markets forecasting the likelihood of penalty shootouts. Following France’s 2-0 victory over Morocco on July 9 and Spain's 2-1 win against Belgium on July 10, the implied probability of one or more quarterfinal matches going to a penalty shootout dropped 13 percentage points to 30%. The shift reflects a market adjusting to a shrinking window of opportunity, with only two of the four quarterfinal games remaining.
Distribution Analysis
The decline in odds was concentrated in the contracts predicting at least one shootout, as traders priced out two of the four potential scenarios that could have ended in a tie after extra time.
| Outcome | Current Prob | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ matches | 30% | -13.0pp | 1,903 |
| 2+ matches | 10% | ~0pp | 1,931 |
| 3+ matches | 1% | -3.0pp | 825 |
| 4 matches | 1% | ~0pp | 1 |
Net: 2 of 4 contracts declined on over 2,700 total trades, shifting implied probability toward a lower likelihood of penalty shootouts in the quarterfinal stage.
What's Driving the Shift
The repricing appears directly tied to concrete results on the pitch, as half of the events that could contribute to the market's resolution are now complete.
Shrinking Calendar: The primary driver is the conclusion of two of the four quarterfinal matches in regulation time. With France and Spain both securing victories within 90 minutes, the total number of opportunities for a penalty shootout has been halved. The market is no longer pricing in hypotheticals for those matches but is instead reacting to their definitive outcomes.
Remaining Matchups: Attention now turns to the final two quarterfinals on Saturday, July 11: Norway vs. England and Argentina vs. Switzerland. While Switzerland advanced to the quarterfinals via a penalty shootout against Colombia, they now face reigning champions Argentina, who are considered heavy favorites to win. The other match features a highly anticipated clash between two of the tournament's top goalscorers, Norway's Erling Haaland and England's Harry Kane, which could also suggest a more decisive outcome is anticipated by traders.
Market Context
The initial probability for at least one shootout, which stood at 43% before Friday's trading, was likely influenced by the drama of the earlier knockout rounds. Switzerland's shootout victory on July 7 provided a recent example of a tightly contested knockout game requiring penalties to decide a winner.
However, the current odds of 30% for at least one shootout across the two remaining matches suggest traders still see a meaningful chance of a deadlock. According to a BBC Sport analysis, penalty shootouts have been a regular feature of the tournament's knockout stages since their introduction, though their occurrence in any specific round is never guaranteed. The market is now pricing the probability for the two remaining games, rather than the original four.
What to Watch
The final outcome of this market will be determined by the results of the two remaining quarterfinal matches scheduled for Saturday, July 11:
- Norway vs. England
- Argentina vs. Switzerland
If either of these matches is tied after extra time and decided by a penalty shootout, the "1+ matches" contract will resolve to "Yes." The market is set to close on July 19, 2026, with official results from FIFA and ESPN serving as the settlement source.
