Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka: Exact Match Score
Short Answer
The model sees Stan Wawrinka winning 2-1 as the most likely outcome for the match, assigning significantly higher odds at 88.0% compared to the market's 21.0%.
1. Executive Verdict
- Alejandro Tabilo holds a strong 12–6 clay court record in the 2026 season.
- Tabilo displays superior service and return metrics on clay courts.
- Stan Wawrinka has a 0–2 clay record and recent back pain concerns.
- Wawrinka withdrew from the Rome Open qualifiers due to back pain.
- Wawrinka's only previous meeting with Tabilo went to three sets.
- Wawrinka also boasts a strong historical 10-3 record at the Geneva Open.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stan Wawrinka wins 2-1 | 21.0% | 88.0% | Stan Wawrinka is strongly favored to secure a 2-1 victory in the match. |
| Alejandro Tabilo wins 2-0 | 0.0% | 5.9% | An Alejandro Tabilo win in straight sets appears highly improbable. |
| Alejandro Tabilo wins 2-1 | 0.0% | 5.9% | A Tabilo 2-1 victory is also considered a very unlikely result. |
| Stan Wawrinka wins 2-0 | 0.0% | 2.5% | Stan Wawrinka winning in straight sets is an extremely unlikely outcome. |
Current Context
The ATP Geneva Open match between Tabilo and Wawrinka has not yet occurred. This first-round match between Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka is currently pending [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Although some prediction markets and event listings reference May 16, 2026, for this fixture, other sources suggest the match is anticipated for May 17, 2026 [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, which tracks the probability of Alejandro Tabilo winning his match against Stan Wawrinka by a 2-0 score, has seen a sharp upward trend since its inception. The price began at a low of 1.0% on May 15 before experiencing a significant spike on May 16. On that day, the price surged to a high of 38.0% before settling at its current level of 21.0%. The provided context indicates this price movement occurred before the match has been played and does not offer a specific catalyst, such as news or social media activity, to explain the dramatic increase.
The most critical feature of this market is the total traded volume, which stands at zero contracts. This lack of volume indicates that the observed price changes are not the result of trades between participants but rather likely reflect adjustments by the market's creator or automated market maker. Without any trading activity, it is not possible to establish meaningful support or resistance levels, as the current price points have not been tested by actual buying or selling pressure. The price history simply reflects the evolution of the listed offer price, not a consensus formed through transactions.
Given the complete absence of trading volume, the chart does not reflect genuine market sentiment or conviction from traders. The current 21.0% price represents a theoretical probability for the outcome, but it is not supported by any invested capital. The upward trend, while visually apparent, is a reflection of price listings changing, not a shift in belief demonstrated through market participation.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 May 16, 2026: 21.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 21.0%
Outcome: Alejandro Tabilo wins 2-0
What happened: The 21.0 percentage point price spike for "Alejandro Tabilo wins 2-0" occurred for a match between Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka that is scheduled for May 16, 2026, and has not yet taken place [^][^][^]. The provided web research contains no information regarding social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would explain this specific predictive price movement. Without additional context or data from the period leading up to the spike, the primary driver for this particular market increase cannot be definitively identified. Consequently, the role of social media as a driver or accelerant in this specific price movement remains undeterminable from the available sources.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Alejandro Tabilo wins his ATP Geneva Round Of 32 match against Stan Wawrinka by a set score of 2-0, and "No" if any other outcome occurs. The market opened on May 15, 2026, and will close after the match outcome, or by May 30, 2026, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing. Special settlement conditions apply: if the match is cancelled before play begins, it resolves to a fair price; if postponed, it remains open for up to two weeks; and if a player retires, settlement depends on what can be unconditionally determined, otherwise it's Fair Market Price.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stan Wawrinka wins 2-1 | $0.61 | $0.98 | 21% |
| Alejandro Tabilo wins 2-0 | $0.55 | $0.79 | 0% |
| Alejandro Tabilo wins 2-1 | $0.72 | $0.95 | 0% |
| Stan Wawrinka wins 2-0 | $0.61 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka are scheduled to face each other in the first round of the 2026 Gonet Geneva Open as of May 16, 2026 [^][^]. Their only prior professional head-to-head meeting occurred at the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters, where Tabilo won 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 [^][^][^]. Ahead of their 2026 Geneva Open match, Tabilo is reportedly favored by betting markets at $1.36 compared to Wawrinka's $3.20 [^].
5. How do Alejandro Tabilo's and Stan Wawrinka's 2026 season performances on clay courts compare?
| Alejandro Tabilo 2026 Clay Court Win Rate | 66.7% (12–6) (mid-May 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Stan Wawrinka 2026 Clay Court Record | 0–2 (ATP-level) (mid-May 2026) [^][^][^] |
| Upcoming Match | Tabilo vs. Wawrinka, 2026 ATP Geneva, May 17, 2026 [^][^] |
Alejandro Tabilo has performed strongly on clay in 2026. As of mid-May 2026, he has achieved a 12–6 record on clay courts, representing a 66.7% win rate [^][^]. This performance stands in contrast to Stan Wawrinka, who has experienced significant difficulties on this surface during the current season [^][^][^][^][^].
Stan Wawrinka has struggled on clay courts this season. His record includes a 0–2 showing in ATP-level clay court matches, with losses recorded in Monte Carlo and Barcelona [^][^]. Wawrinka has not secured any wins in his other clay court appearances in 2026 [^]. The two players are scheduled to compete against each other in the 2026 ATP Geneva tournament, with their match anticipated on May 17, 2026 [^][^].
6. What does the statistical breakdown of the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters match reveal about the Tabilo vs. Wawrinka matchup?
| Prediction Market Match Date | May 16, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2025 Match Event | 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters Round of 64 [^][^][^][^] |
| 2025 Match Score | Tabilo defeated Wawrinka 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 [^][^][^][^] |
The available research details a historical match from 2025, not the 2026 prediction market event. The provided statistical breakdown pertains to a past encounter between Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka at the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters, distinct from their scheduled match on May 16, 2026, which is the subject of the "Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka: Exact Match Score" prediction market [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Alejandro Tabilo defeated Stan Wawrinka in their 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters encounter. In their Round of 64 match, Tabilo won with a final score of 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 [^][^]. Wawrinka started strong, securing the first set 6-1. However, Tabilo initiated a comeback in the subsequent sets, notably focusing on Wawrinka's single-handed backhand [^][^]. Tabilo successfully capitalized on crucial points during his comeback, including winning 52% of points on Wawrinka's first serve in the decisive third set [^][^][^][^].
Therefore, the provided statistical breakdown does not reveal information relevant to the 2026 match. Consequently, the available data describes a historical 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters match and does not contain any statistical insights directly applicable to the 2026 ATP Geneva Open match for which the prediction market is concerned [^][^][^].
7. Are there any recent injury concerns or fitness reports for Tabilo or Wawrinka ahead of the Geneva Open?
| Wawrinka's Rome Open Withdrawal Reason | Back pain [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Wawrinka's Geneva Open Status (as of May 16, 2026) | Not withdrawn [^] |
| Tabilo's Active Injury Concerns | None reported [^] |
Alejandro Tabilo has no current injury concerns despite a past wrist issue. Ahead of the 2026 Geneva Open, Tabilo has no reported active injury concerns [^]. He previously experienced a bone edema in his wrist in 2025, but this is not an active problem [^]. A match between Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka is scheduled for the 2026 Geneva Open on May 16, 2026 [^][^].
8. How do Tabilo's and Wawrinka's key service and return game metrics compare on clay throughout the 2026 season?
| Alejandro Tabilo Service Hold % (2026 Clay) | 86.77% [^] |
|---|---|
| Stan Wawrinka Service Hold % (2026 Clay) | 75.31% [^] |
| Alejandro Tabilo Break % (2026 Clay) | 22.33% [^] |
Tabilo has a strong winning record and high service hold percentage. He has compiled a strong 12–6 record (66.7%) on clay in the 2026 season. During this period, Tabilo maintained an 86.77% service hold percentage and a 22.33% break percentage [^].
Wawrinka's 2026 clay season shows limited activity and lower metrics. In contrast, Stan Wawrinka has had limited activity on clay in the 2026 season, holding a 0–2 record. Across those matches, Wawrinka's service hold percentage is 75.31%, and his break percentage is 16.67% [^].
9. What is Stan Wawrinka's historical performance at the Geneva Open, and how might the home-crowd factor influence the match?
| Geneva Open Wins | 2 (2016, 2017) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Geneva Open Match Record | 10-3 [^][^][^][^] |
| Tabilo Match Odds vs Wawrinka | 1.39 [^][^] |
Stan Wawrinka boasts a strong historical performance at the Geneva Open. He has won the tournament twice, in 2016 and 2017, and holds an impressive 10-3 match record at the event [^][^][^][^]. The 2026 Geneva Open marks a significant occasion as it will be Wawrinka's final appearance at the tournament, coinciding with his retirement from professional tennis at the end of the 2026 season [^][^].
The home crowd will significantly influence Wawrinka's final Geneva appearance. As a Swiss tennis icon participating in his last Geneva Open, the home-crowd factor is expected to be substantial, potentially providing him with additional motivation and support [^][^][^]. However, despite Wawrinka's historical success and anticipated crowd backing, Alejandro Tabilo is currently favored to win their 2026 Geneva Open Round of 32 match, with reported odds for Tabilo around 1.39 [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 30, 2026
- Closes: May 30, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka are scheduled to play each other in the first round (Round of 32) of the 2026 ATP Geneva Open [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The only previous head-to-head meeting between Tabilo and Wawrinka occurred at the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters, where Tabilo won 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets for this match have a closing date of May 30, 2026, which serves as a deadline for the market to resolve, rather than the date of the match itself [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The match was originally scheduled for mid-May 2026, for example May 18, and betting markets reflect this timeframe [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 15 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY16HUETAB-TAB21: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY16HUETAB-TAB20: YES (May 16, 2026)
- KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY16HUETAB-HUE21: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY16HUETAB-HUE20: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY16BRAZIN-ZIN21: NO (May 16, 2026)
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