Lecce at Pisa: Spreads
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Coda and Lucca's definitive fitness status is currently unavailable.
- Lecce aims for direct promotion with just two matches remaining.
- Asian Handicap line movement details for the match are unavailable.
- Official lineups for Pisa and Lecce have not yet been released.
- A specific referee ID (2083565) has been identified for the match.
- The market price saw an 8.0 percentage point spike on April 26.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce wins by over 1.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | The absence of confirmed key player fitness status for Lecce and Pisa, combined with the unavailability of specific market line movement data for a future match, provides no basis to shift from the 0.0% debiased anchor, suggesting the market accurately reflects a complete lack of actionable information. |
| Lecce wins by over 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | The provided research explicitly states there is no confirmed fitness status for key players Coda and Lucca within 24 hours of kickoff, thus offering no actionable information to contradict the market's extreme improbability of Lecce winning by over 2.5 goals. |
| Pisa wins by over 1.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | The research found no confirmed fitness status for key players Coda (Lecce) or Lucca (Pisa) for the future match on May 1st, 2026, therefore providing no evidence to shift the debiased probability of 0.0% for Pisa to win by over 1.5 goals. |
| Pisa wins by over 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | The provided background research indicates a lack of confirmable fitness status for key players within 24 hours of kickoff, offering no specific evidence to challenge the market's debiased price of 0.0% for Pisa winning by over 2.5 goals. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 26, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 10.0%
Outcome: Lecce wins by over 1.5 goals
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Lecce wins by more than 1.5 goals against Pisa in the Serie A soccer game scheduled for May 1, 2026. Conversely, it resolves to NO if Lecce wins by 1.5 goals or less, draws, or loses. The outcome is based on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties, and is verified from Fox Sports and ESPN. The market closes after the outcome occurs, or by May 15, 2026, 2:45pm EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce wins by over 1.5 goals | $0.19 | $0.90 | 0% |
| Lecce wins by over 2.5 goals | $0.13 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Pisa wins by over 1.5 goals | $0.15 | $0.94 | 0% |
| Pisa wins by over 2.5 goals | $0.13 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What is the Confirmed Fitness Status for Coda and Lucca?
| Massimo Coda Fitness Status | Not definitively determined within 24 hours of May 1, 2026 kickoff [^] |
|---|---|
| Lorenzo Lucca Fitness Status | Not definitively determined within 24 hours of May 1, 2026 kickoff [^] |
| Official Pre-Match Updates | No official team announcements within 24 hours of May 1, 2026 kickoff [^] |
6. What Specific Asian Handicap Line Movement Data Is Unavailable?
| Asian Handicap Line Movement Data | Not available (Web Research Results) [^] |
|---|---|
| Crossing +/- 1.0 Integer | Not possible to determine (Web Research Results) [^] |
| Juice/Price Changes on Spreads | Not possible to quantify (Web Research Results) [^] |
7. What are Lecce's and Pisa's motivations for the May 2026 match?
| Lecce's Primary Goal | Direct Serie A promotion (May 1, 2026 match) [^] |
|---|---|
| Lecce's Alternative Goal | Consolidate second-place standing in Serie B [^] |
| Pisa's Motivations | Not detailed in available sources for promotion/playoff spots [^] |
8. What are the referee stats for Lecce vs. Pisa May 2026 match?
| Center Referee Name | Not explicitly provided in research [^]. |
|---|---|
| Referee ID (Season 2025-2026) | 2083565 (StatsHub) [^] |
| Referee Disciplinary Statistics | Data on yellow cards, red cards, and penalties indicated as available via StatsHub, not extracted [^]. |
9. Can Pisa vs. Lecce 2026 Lineups Be Compared?
| Match Date/Time | May 1, 2026, 20:45 local time (Pisa vs. Lecce) [^] |
|---|---|
| Official Lineups Release | 19:45 on May 1, 2026 (one hour before kickoff) [^] |
| Projected Lineups Date | May 3, 2026 (Tuttosport [^], Corriere dello Sport [^]) |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 15, 2026
- Closes: May 15, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSERIEASPREAD-26APR24NAPCRE-NAP2: YES (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXSERIEASPREAD-26APR24NAPCRE-NAP1: YES (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXSERIEASPREAD-26APR24NAPCRE-CRE2: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXSERIEASPREAD-26APR24NAPCRE-CRE1: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXSERIEASPREAD-26APR25PARPIS-PIS2: NO (Apr 25, 2026)
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