NASCAR NASCAR All-Star Race: Fastest Lap
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Tyler Reddick is most likely to have the fastest lap in the NASCAR All-Star Race, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Denny Hamlin holds the fastest qualifying lap record at Dover.
- Hamlin also earned the 'Xfinity Fastest Lap' award in July 2025.
- Kyle Larson closely trailed Hamlin's track record in October 2019.
- Larson's team, Hendrick Motorsports, won 21 Cup Series races at Dover.
- The 2026 format may incentivize drivers to pursue an early fastest lap.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Ware | 1.0% | 1.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Cole Custer | 1.0% | 1.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Connor Zilisch | 1.0% | 1.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Noah Gragson | 1.0% | 1.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 1.0% | 1.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
The 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race features a new format at Dover. This event is scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026, with the green flag set for 1:00 PM ET at Dover Motor Speedway [^]. The revealed 2026 format for the main event spans 350 laps, divided into three segments. The first two segments each consist of a 75-lap sprint, with the lineup for Segment 2 determined by an inversion of the top 26 finishers from Segment 1. The third and final segment will be a 200-lap race [^][^].
A unique qualifying structure accompanies a dedicated fastest lap market. The 2026 qualifying system includes a Pit Crew Challenge, which involves a four-tire stop without refueling, and the results of this challenge will determine the full field for Segment 1, replacing the traditional All-Star Open [^]. Separately, a "NASCAR Fastest Lap?" betting market is available, specifically for the driver who records the fastest valid lap time during the main race [^]. For the overall race win, multiple sources identify Denny Hamlin as the betting favorite at approximately +400, followed by Kyle Larson at +550, and then Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney both at +750 [^][^][^]. Informal simulations also suggest Denny Hamlin as the top contender to win the race, with no formal simulation performed due to the format's uniqueness [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action has been minimal and defined by a single adjustment on zero volume. The contract opened with a YES probability of 2.0% and held that price briefly before dropping to 0.0% on May 12. It has remained static at 0.0% since that time. The overall trend is flat, characterized by a complete lack of activity following the initial price drop. There have been no other significant price movements, spikes, or recoveries.
The most critical factor in this market is the total trading volume of zero contracts. This indicates that the price drop from 2.0% to 0.0% was not caused by trader activity or reaction to news, but rather by an adjustment from the market's creator. While the provided context details the newly revealed race format, including a multi-segment structure and a Pit Crew Challenge for qualifying, the absence of trading volume means this information did not trigger a sell-off. Instead, the price change reflects a repricing in a market that has failed to attract any participation.
The lack of any trading activity suggests there is no market conviction or sentiment. The price of 0.0% effectively serves as a support level, but without trading, concepts like support and resistance are purely theoretical. The chart suggests that traders have shown no interest in this proposition at any price, leading to an inactive market with a price that reflects a near-zero perceived probability of the "YES" outcome.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Tyler Reddick records the fastest valid lap time in the main race of the NASCAR Cup Series 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The event begins on May 17, 2026, with the market closing after the outcome or by June 14, 2026, at 7:00 PM EDT. Resolution is based solely on final official results posted by NASCAR, not provisional ones, with payouts projected 30 minutes after market close.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Reddick | $0.98 | $1.00 | 98% |
| Cody Ware | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Cole Custer | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Connor Zilisch | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Noah Gragson | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Todd Gilliland | $0.97 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Ty Dillon | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| AJ Allmendinger | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Alex Bowman | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Austin Cindric | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Austin Dillon | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Brad Keselowski | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Bubba Wallace | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Carson Hocevar | $0.98 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Chase Briscoe | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Chase Elliott | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Chris Buescher | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Christopher Bell | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Daniel Suárez | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Denny Hamlin | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Erik Jones | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Joey Logano | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| John H. Nemechek | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Josh Berry | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Kyle Busch | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Kyle Larson | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Michael McDowell | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ricky Stenhouse | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Riley Herbst | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ross Chastain | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ryan Blaney | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ryan Preece | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ty Gibbs | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| William Byron | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Zane Smith | $0.98 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Kyle Larson, a two-time All-Star Race winner and holder of a Dover Motor Speedway track record from October 6, 2019, is considered a top contender for the fastest lap, alongside Chase Elliott [^]. Discussion around the 2026 All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway centers on factors like the application of resin, which could impact grip and potential lap times, and the unavailability of planned aero devices intended to promote multi-groove racing [^].
4. What evidence from Denny Hamlin's past performances at Dover Motor Speedway supports his position as a favorite to set the 2026 All-Star Race's fastest lap?
| 2019 Dover Pole Speed | 166.984 mph (21.559 seconds) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2015 Dover Pole Speed | 160.121 mph (22.483 seconds) [^] |
| 2015 Dover Practice Speed | 156.331 mph (23.028 seconds) [^] |
Denny Hamlin consistently demonstrates strong one-lap speed at Dover Motor Speedway. He secured a track-record pole position during the 2019 Dover Cup Series qualifying, completing a lap at 166.984 mph (21.559 seconds) [^]. This impressive time was more than a second faster than the prior qualifying record, highlighting his capacity to achieve the fastest lap [^].
Hamlin's strong performances include multiple poles and practice session leadership. He also posted a pole-winning lap of 160.121 mph (22.483 seconds) at Dover in 2015, narrowly surpassing Martin Truex Jr. by 0.056 seconds [^]. At that point, he had claimed poles in six consecutive attempts at Dover since 2012 [^]. Furthermore, Hamlin recorded the fastest lap during a Saturday Cup practice at Dover on May 30, 2015, reaching 156.331 miles per hour (23.028 seconds) [^]. These verified one-lap speeds on the concrete 1-mile circuit directly exemplify the single best lap performance essential for fastest-lap outcomes [^].
5. How do top contenders Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson compare on key performance indicators for raw speed, such as qualifying results and fastest laps, at Dover Motor Speedway?
| Hamlin's Dover Qualifying Record | 166.984 mph (October 2019) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Larson's 2019 Qualifying Gap to Hamlin | 0.003 seconds behind Hamlin (October 2019) [^] |
| 2026 All-Star Race Starting Positions | Larson 5th, Hamlin 35th [^] |
Denny Hamlin consistently demonstrates record-breaking speed in qualifying and races at Dover. He holds the NASCAR Cup Series fastest qualifying lap record at Dover Motor Speedway, achieved in October 2019 with a speed of 166.984 mph (21.559 seconds) [^][^]. Hamlin has secured pole position at Dover four times, his highest number of poles at any one-mile oval [^][^]. In terms of in-race speed, Hamlin earned the "Xfinity Fastest Lap" award in the Cup Series race at Dover in July 2025, clocking a time of 23.088 seconds [^].
Kyle Larson shows remarkable raw speed and consistent performance at Dover. In October 2019, when Hamlin set the track qualifying record, Larson qualified a mere 0.003 seconds behind him [^]. Larson was the fastest in the final Cup practice session at Dover in October 2018 and has consistently posted strong in-race speeds, including a best lap of 23.24 seconds in a recent race [^]. He considers Dover "probably my best track on paper," citing consistent strong finishes and an average finish of 6.9 in 14 starts as of April 2023 [^]. For the upcoming 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover, Larson is slated to start 5th, a significantly better qualifying position compared to Hamlin's 35th [^].
6. How might the new 2026 race format, with its shorter initial segments, incentivize drivers and teams to pursue an early fastest lap at Dover Motor Speedway?
| Total Race Laps | 350 laps (2026 NASCAR All-Star Race) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| First Segment Length | 75 laps [^][^][^] |
| Final Segment Length | 200 laps [^][^][^] |
The new 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race format incentivizes early fastest laps. The 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway features a new format that significantly incentivizes drivers and teams to pursue an early fastest lap. The unique structure, comprising shorter initial segments, directly impacts subsequent starting positions [^][^][^]. This design encourages teams to establish an early race pace, recognizing the fastest lap as an observable event outcome that can focus their attention on achieving outright speed early in the competition [^][^][^][^].
The race features specific segments determining future starting positions. The 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race is scheduled for a total of 350 laps, divided into three distinct segments: 75 laps, followed by another 75 laps, and concluding with a 200-lap final segment [^][^][^]. The starting lineup for Segment 2 is determined by inverting the top 26 finishers from Segment 1. Similarly, the starting order for the final 200-lap segment for the 26-car field is set using the combined results from both Segment 1 and Segment 2 [^][^][^]. This framework strongly motivates teams to establish an early race pace, as an early fastest-lap attempt is consistent with optimizing outcomes in the crucial initial segments. The existence of a dedicated market for "NASCAR NASCAR All-Star Race: Fastest Lap" further highlights the fastest lap as a tradable and observable event, directing team and driver focus toward early speed [^].
7. What public data sources track advanced NASCAR metrics like 'fastest laps' and 'green flag speed' for individual drivers at specific tracks like Dover Motor Speedway?
| Advanced Metrics Tracking | Fastest laps and green flag speed tracked by multiple public sources and APIs (NASCAR.com, ifantasyrace.com, DriverAverages.com, Racing-Reference.info, Sportradar [^]) |
|---|---|
| Dover Green Flag Speed Data | Available from 2022-2025 for O'Reilly Series Dover (ifantasyrace.com [^][^]) |
| Driver Statistics Database | Racing-Reference.info provides comprehensive driver stats including NumFastestLaps and DriverRating [^][^] |
Public data sources widely track advanced NASCAR driver metrics. Metrics like 'fastest laps' and 'green flag speed' for individual drivers at specific tracks such as Dover Motor Speedway are readily available through several platforms. Key public resources include NASCAR.com, ifantasyrace.com, DriverAverages.com, and Racing-Reference.info. Additionally, APIs like Sportradar confirm the availability of such detailed data, offering NASCAR Driver Statistics [^].
Official and fan sites provide detailed lap and speed data. NASCAR.com, an official source, offers "Lap Time Table" results, which include fastest lap information for various races [^]. This site also publishes "Stats advance" articles that analyze driver performance using metrics like "Fastest Laps Run" and "Average Green Flag Speed" specifically for races and tracks, including Dover Motor Speedway [^]. Similarly, ifantasyrace.com lists "O'Reilly Series Dover 2025 NASCAR Green Flag Speeds" [^], provides a "Fantasy NASCAR Green Flag Average Speed Index" covering Dover data from 2022 to 2025 [^], and offers "Dover Practice Lap By Lap Average Speed Rankings" [^]. Predictive markets also track these metrics, as seen with Kalshi, which monitors a "Fastest Lap" prediction for the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway [^][^].
Comprehensive databases offer extensive historical and performance statistics. DriverAverages.com provides extensive driver averages, career win totals, and historical data across Cup, Xfinity, and Truck series, including track-specific performance [^][^]. Furthermore, Racing-Reference.info is well-known for its detailed NASCAR driver statistics. This platform offers insights into laps, wins, poles, "NumFastestLaps," and a "DriverRating" that incorporates fastest laps and average speed under green flag conditions [^][^].
8. How do the technical packages of Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports historically perform in terms of raw speed at high-banked concrete tracks like Dover?
| HMS Cup Series Wins at Dover | 21 wins [^] |
|---|---|
| HMS Historic Finish | 1-2-3-4 finish at Dover in 2021 [^][^] |
| Denny Hamlin Dover Wins | 3 Cup Series wins, including back-to-back in 2024 and 2025 [^][^][^][^] |
Both Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) and Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) have historically demonstrated significant raw speed and strong performance at high-banked concrete tracks such as Dover. Hendrick Motorsports consistently showcases unparalleled speed and dominance at Dover. The team holds an unparalleled record with 21 NASCAR Cup Series victories, making them the team with the most wins at the track [^]. A notable display of their dominance occurred in 2021, when HMS achieved a historic 1-2-3-4 finish, with Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and William Byron securing the top four positions [^][^]. Kyle Larson is a past winner at Dover from 2019 and holds the record for the fastest race at the track, also set in 2019 [^][^]. Alex Bowman also secured a victory at Dover in 2021 [^], while Chase Elliott led a race-best 238 of 407 laps in a 2025 Dover race [^].
Joe Gibbs Racing drivers also exhibit formidable speed, particularly Denny Hamlin. Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have also shown formidable competitiveness at Dover. Denny Hamlin of JGR is particularly strong at this track, boasting three Cup Series wins, including back-to-back victories in 2024 and 2025 [^][^][^][^]. Hamlin also holds the fastest NASCAR Cup Series qualifying lap record at Dover from 2019 [^]. His consistent performance includes 17 top-10 finishes and leading 885 laps across 35 starts [^]. In 2024 alone, Hamlin secured two poles and led 417 laps, further underscoring JGR's impressive raw speed and pace at Dover [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The fastest-lap prediction-market catalyst for this event is tied to a dedicated Kalshi prop market labeled ascar NASCAR All-Star Race: Fastest Lap. . The 2026 All-Star Race itself is scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026, at Dover Motor Speedway, with NASCAR describing the $1M exhibition and the 350-lap segmented format [^][^]. This includes an enhanced qualifying session featuring the Pit Crew Challenge [^].
Key in-weekend positioning catalysts for fastest-lap-style outcomes occur on Saturday qualifying, which includes the Pit Crew Challenge at noon per the Dover schedule and helps determine race starting positions [^] [^] . Friday and Saturday practice sessions also contribute to these outcomes leading into that [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 14, 2026
- Closes: June 14, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The fastest-lap prediction-market catalyst for this event is tied to a dedicated Kalshi prop market labeled ascar NASCAR All-Star Race: Fastest Lap?
- Trigger: [^] .
- Trigger: The 2026 All-Star Race itself is scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026, at Dover Motor Speedway, with NASCAR describing the $1M exhibition and the 350-lap segmented format [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This includes an enhanced qualifying session featuring the Pit Crew Challenge [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNASCARFASTLAP-BULHV1AT26-WESL: NO (May 09, 2026)
- KXNASCARFASTLAP-BULHV1AT26-TYRE: NO (May 09, 2026)
- KXNASCARFASTLAP-BULHV1AT26-TYMA: NO (May 09, 2026)
- KXNASCARFASTLAP-BULHV1AT26-TYAN: NO (May 09, 2026)
- KXNASCARFASTLAP-BULHV1AT26-TOBR: NO (May 09, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
