U.s. Open: Top 20 Finishers
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Wyndham Clark to finish in the top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Scottie Scheffler appears to be the statistical leader ahead of the U.S. Open.
- Shinnecock Hills is a historically challenging U.S. Open course with high cut lines.
- Strong west winds forecasted for June 20-21 may significantly affect player strategies.
- Wyndham Clark's strong performance through two rounds supports his top-20 potential.
- Non-favorite players like Keegan Bradley or Sam Burns show dark horse potential.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Kohles | 25.0% | 13.9% | Consistent play indicates he is a strong contender for a top 20 position. |
| Tom Kim | 73.0% | 65.1% | Tom Kim is anticipated to secure a competitive position within the top 20. |
| Miles Russell | 10.0% | 4.1% | Miles Russell is listed among the possible top 20 finishers at the U.S. Open. |
| Benjamin James | 26.0% | 14.7% | Benjamin James is expected to contend for a top 20 finish at the U.S. Open. |
| Andrew Putnam | 25.0% | 13.9% | He has shown potential to perform well in major tournaments. |
Current Context
The U.S. Open is ongoing, so final top 20 finishers are unavailable. The 126th U.S. Open Championship is being held from June 18–21, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club [^][^][^][^]. As of June 20, 2026, which marks the completion of Round 2, Wyndham Clark leads the field with a total score of -7 (133 strokes) [^][^][^][^]. Clark holds a four-shot advantage over competitors Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Sam Stevens, and Tom Kim [^][^][^][^]. The current data provides leaderboard status only through Round 2, therefore, the final list of top 20 finishers for the entire 72-hole tournament cannot be reliably determined until after the event concludes on June 21 [^][^][^][^][^].
Pre-tournament odds and rankings favored top players like Scheffler. Before the tournament began, Scottie Scheffler was identified as the betting favorite with odds of +550 to win the 2026 U.S. Open, with Rory McIlroy listed at +1200 [^][^]. A prediction market on June 17, 2026, showed Scottie Scheffler as having the highest probability of winning at 13%, followed by Rory McIlroy at 7% [^]. According to DataGolf rankings, Scottie Scheffler is the highest-ranked player, possessing a skill estimate of 2.85 strokes gained [^]. Rory McIlroy is ranked 2nd with a skill estimate of 2.11 strokes gained, Jon Rahm 3rd (2.09 strokes gained), Cameron Young 4th (1.83 strokes gained), and Matt Fitzpatrick 5th (1.82 strokes gained) [^]. The DataGolf rankings include 20 players, with skill estimates ranging from Scheffler's 2.85 down to 1.26 for Adam Scott [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has exhibited a volatile, sideways trading pattern, with prices fluctuating within a wide range of 34.0% to 82.0%. Despite significant short-term swings, the price has not established a clear directional trend, beginning at 58.0% and trading at 54.0% most recently. The most notable price action occurred as the 2026 U.S. Open began. The market saw a significant price drop to its low of 34.0% around June 12, followed by a sharp recovery. Volatility intensified during the tournament, with a 26.0 percentage point spike on June 18, a 10.0 point drop the next day, and a 16.0 point spike on June 20. These movements highlight a market that is highly sensitive to real-time developments.
The price swings appear directly correlated with player performances during the tournament. The 26.0 point spike on June 18 was likely driven by Ludvig Åberg’s strong first-round performance, where he was reported to have briefly shared the lead. Other price movements for individual golfers, such as those for Akshay Bhatia and Keegan Bradley, also seem to correspond with their positioning after tournament rounds, influencing trader sentiment. Trading volume, which was minimal before the event, increased as the tournament progressed, suggesting rising trader conviction and engagement as concrete results became available. The price range established during this period, with support near 34.0% and resistance around 82.0%, has contained all trading activity.
Overall, the chart suggests that market sentiment is event-driven and reactive. The sideways trend indicates that, in the long run, the market's baseline expectation for a Top 20 finish has remained relatively stable. However, the sharp, short-term volatility during the tournament days demonstrates that traders are quick to re-evaluate probabilities based on daily on-course action. The price action consistently pivoting around the 50% level further reflects the market's uncertainty and its rapid adjustment to new information as the event unfolds.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Keegan Bradley
📉 June 20, 2026: 47.0pp drop
Price decreased from 87.0% to 40.0%
What happened: The provided information does not support a 47.0 percentage point drop in Keegan Bradley's prediction market price for a Top 20 finish in the U.S. Open on June 20, 2026 [^]. As of that date, Keegan Bradley was reportedly positioned at T22 (+1) after two rounds, with the tournament still in progress and no final top 20 results available [^]. There is no credible reporting or evidence of a significant fall in his standings or any associated social media activity that would have driven such a drastic price movement [^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, as the premise of the significant price movement itself is unsubstantiated by the available sources.
Outcome: Akshay Bhatia
📈 June 19, 2026: 38.0pp spike
Price increased from 16.0% to 54.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price spike for Akshay Bhatia appears to be his performance during the opening round of the 2026 U.S. Open. On June 19, 2026, Akshay Bhatia was provisionally tied for 29th place after the fog-delayed first round, which likely increased market confidence in his potential to achieve a Top 20 finish [^][^]. This news about his early tournament standing coincided with the price movement. There is no information in the provided sources regarding social media activity or market structure factors influencing this specific price spike. Based on the available evidence, social media was irrelevant.
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📈 June 18, 2026: 26.0pp spike
Price increased from 43.0% to 69.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 26.0 percentage point price spike for Ludvig Åberg to finish in the Top 20 at the U.S. Open on June 18, 2026, was his strong performance during the tournament's first round. On this date, Åberg carded a 1-under 69 and briefly shared the lead after making a significant birdie putt on the 15th hole [^][^][^]. This impressive start, highlighted by a +2.62 "strokes gained: putting" metric, likely increased market confidence in his prospects for a top 20 finish [^]. Based on the provided research, social media was an irrelevant factor as no related activity was identified.
📈 June 14, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 34.0% to 52.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point price spike for Ludvig Aberg on June 14, 2026, cannot be identified from the provided research. This is because the 2026 U.S. Open did not begin until June 18, 2026, meaning no tournament play occurred on the date of the market movement [^]. Consequently, news regarding Åberg's Round 1 performance, including his 1-under 69 score or putter change, took place after June 14 and could not have caused the spike [^]. No specific social media posts or traditional news announcements from June 14, 2026, that could explain the movement were found. Therefore, social media appears irrelevant to this specific market event based on the given timeline.
Outcome: Michael Brennan
📉 June 15, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 26.0% to 11.0%
What happened: The provided information indicates several factual inconsistencies that prevent identifying a primary driver for the described market movement. The 2026 U.S. Open occurred from June 18-21, 2026, making a market movement date of June 15, 2026, for a "Top 20 Finishers" outcome incorrect [^]. Additionally, professional golfer Michael Brennan missed the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open, making a Top 20 finish impossible [^][^]. There is no evidence in the provided sources of a 15.0 percentage point price drop or related social media activity concerning Michael Brennan's performance for a Top 20 finish at this specific event or date [^][^][^][^][^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as the foundational event described lacks supporting evidence.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open; otherwise, it resolves to NO. If he forfeits, withdraws, or doesn't participate after teeing off, it resolves to NO; if this occurs prior to teeing off, it resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opened on May 18, 2026, and closes after the outcome or by July 19, 2026, 12:00 am EDT, with a projected payout 5 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kim | $0.73 | $0.28 | 73% |
| Keith Mitchell | $0.44 | $0.59 | 44% |
| Emiliano Grillo | $0.12 | $0.90 | 40% |
| William Mouw | $0.37 | $0.64 | 36% |
| Harry Higgs | $0.30 | $0.71 | 29% |
| Benjamin James | $0.26 | $0.76 | 26% |
| Max McGreevy | $0.27 | $0.75 | 26% |
| Andrew Putnam | $0.25 | $0.77 | 25% |
| Ben Kohles | $0.25 | $0.77 | 25% |
| J.T. Poston | $0.27 | $0.75 | 25% |
| Marek Fleming | $0.03 | $1.00 | 25% |
| Max Greyserman | $0.24 | $0.77 | 24% |
| Ryder Cowan | $0.22 | $0.79 | 22% |
| Zac Blair | $0.19 | $0.82 | 18% |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | $0.17 | $0.85 | 17% |
| John Parry | $0.17 | $0.85 | 16% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Bud Cauley | $0.15 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Miles Russell | $0.10 | $0.95 | 10% |
| Jackson Van Paris | $0.07 | $0.95 | 7% |
| Neal Shipley | $0.08 | $0.96 | 7% |
| James Nicholas | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Angel Hidalgo | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Caleb Surratt | $0.07 | $0.98 | 5% |
| Dylan Wu | $0.05 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Eric Lee | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Peter Uihlein | $0.04 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Spencer Tibbits | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Wyndham Clark | $0.97 | $0.05 | 95% |
| Xander Schauffele | $0.90 | $0.12 | 88% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $0.89 | $0.13 | 87% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.85 | $0.17 | 85% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.78 | $0.23 | 78% |
| Rory McIlroy | $0.73 | $0.28 | 73% |
| Sam Burns | $0.71 | $0.30 | 70% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.71 | $0.32 | 70% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.66 | $0.40 | 61% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $0.59 | $0.44 | 56% |
| Sahith Theegala | $0.56 | $0.46 | 55% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.54 | $0.49 | 54% |
| Maverick McNealy | $0.55 | $0.49 | 54% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | $0.52 | $0.50 | 52% |
| Brian Harman | $0.47 | $0.54 | 47% |
| Justin Rose | $0.46 | $0.57 | 47% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $0.46 | $0.55 | 46% |
| Gary Woodland | $0.44 | $0.57 | 44% |
| Cameron Young | $0.43 | $0.58 | 42% |
| Aaron Rai | $0.41 | $0.60 | 41% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $0.41 | $0.62 | 41% |
| Keegan Bradley | $0.40 | $0.61 | 40% |
| Russell Henley | $0.35 | $0.66 | 35% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.34 | $0.67 | 34% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $0.34 | $0.68 | 34% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.34 | $0.67 | 33% |
| Corey Conners | $0.33 | $0.68 | 32% |
| John Keefer | $0.27 | $0.75 | 28% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.25 | $0.77 | 25% |
| Sungjae Im | $0.22 | $0.80 | 22% |
| Joaquin Niemann | $0.20 | $0.82 | 20% |
| Dustin Johnson | $0.19 | $0.82 | 19% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.18 | $0.85 | 18% |
| Jackson Koivun | $0.18 | $0.84 | 18% |
| Robert MacIntyre | $0.16 | $0.87 | 17% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.17 | $0.84 | 17% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $0.16 | $0.87 | 16% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Michael Kim | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Pierceson Coody | $0.15 | $0.87 | 15% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $0.13 | $0.91 | 13% |
| Patrick Rodgers | $0.10 | $0.92 | 10% |
| Laurie Canter | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | $0.09 | $0.96 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Traders in this market are predominantly bullish, with all visible posts betting "Yes" on various golfers to achieve a Top 20 finish, including Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Alex Fitzpatrick, and Collin Morikawa. The sentiment is generally optimistic, with users expressing positive expectations for weekend performance (e.g., "Saturday Shine," "making it interesting for the weekend," "to victory and beyond!"). There are no explicit arguments or viewpoints supporting a "No" outcome for any golfer within the discussion.
5. How do pre-tournament favorites Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy compare across key performance metrics for the 2026 season leading into the U.S. Open?
| Scottie Scheffler SG: Total | 2.162 (2026 season) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy SG: Off-the-Tee | 0.793 (2026 season) [^][^][^] |
| Scottie Scheffler DataGolf Rank | 1st (as of 2026 U.S. Open) [^] |
Scottie Scheffler entered the U.S. Open as the statistical leader. Ranked World No. 1, Scheffler had secured 1 win and 7 top-10 finishes during the 2026 season. He led the PGA Tour in several key metrics, including Strokes Gained: Total (2.162) [^][^], adjusted scoring average (69.168) [^], and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (1.696) [^]. While his iron play, measured by Strokes Gained: Approach, experienced a decline, his putting improved significantly, becoming a notable strength in the 2026 season [^][^].
Rory McIlroy demonstrated elite driving alongside strong overall play. Ranked World No. 2, McIlroy recorded 1 win and 3 top-10 finishes in the 2026 season, maintaining a scoring average of 69.37 [^] and a Strokes Gained: Total of 1.669 [^]. McIlroy notably excelled in driving metrics, ranking 1st in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (0.793) [^][^][^] with an impressive average driving distance of 326.8 yards [^]. As of the U.S. Open, DataGolf ranked Scottie Scheffler 1st with a skill estimate of 2.85 strokes gained, ahead of Rory McIlroy, who was ranked 2nd with a skill estimate of 2.11 strokes gained [^].
Scheffler faced immediate challenges in the U.S. Open's opening round. Despite his strong season, Scheffler struggled in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, finishing 2-over par in difficult, windswept conditions [^].
6. What do historical scoring trends and cut lines from past U.S. Opens at Shinnecock Hills suggest for the 2026 tournament's difficulty?
| Players under par (modern era) | 3 players across four U.S. Opens [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Highest cut line | 10-over par in 1986 [^][^] |
| 2026 U.S. Open green speed | Approximately 10.5 on the Stimpmeter [^][^][^] |
Shinnecock Hills has a consistent history as a challenging U.S. Open venue. The course consistently produces high cut lines and very few players finishing under par during its modern-era tournaments. Historically, only three players have completed the U.S. Open under par across its four modern-era events held in 1986, 1995, 2004, and 2018 [^][^][^]. Reflecting this extreme difficulty, cut lines have reached as high as 10-over par in 1986 and 8-over par in 2018 [^][^]. This pattern strongly suggests that the 2026 tournament will maintain its reputation for demanding play.
Despite course adjustments, the 2026 U.S. Open will remain inherently difficult. For the upcoming tournament, organizers have implemented modifications, including wider fairways and slower green speeds, estimated at approximately 10.5 on the Stimpmeter, in response to past criticisms [^][^][^]. However, even with these changes, the course is anticipated to maintain its challenging nature. Contributing factors to its sustained difficulty include severe greens and expected high winds, with gusts potentially reaching 30-40 mph, ensuring a demanding competition for all participants [^][^][^].
7. Which players outside the top-10 favorites, such as Keegan Bradley or Sam Burns, have statistical profiles that make them strong 'dark horse' candidates for a top-20 finish?
| Sam Burns DataGolf Skill | 1.57 (rank 12) [^] |
|---|---|
| Keegan Bradley 2026 Performance | 6 top-10 finishes, 1 victory (Travelers Championship) [^][^] |
| Patrick Cantlay DataGolf Skill | 1.58 (rank 11) [^] |
Several non-favorite players have strong profiles for a U.S. Open top-20 finish. These players, who are not among the top-10 favorites, include Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, J.J. Spaun, Maverick McNealy, and Collin Morikawa. Their identification as strong candidates stems from current rankings, detailed skill estimates, and recent performance metrics, which collectively indicate an increased probability of them securing a top-20 position at the 2026 U.S. Open [^][^].
Keegan Bradley and Sam Burns exhibit specific strengths justifying their dark horse status. Keegan Bradley, currently ranked 38th in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), has maintained a consistent and balanced game throughout the 2026 season. His performance includes six top-10 finishes and a victory at the Travelers Championship [^][^]. Bradley's 2026 strokes-gained profile features a +0.257 SG: Around-the-Green (ranking 31st) and a +0.136 SG: Total (ranking 76th) [^][^]. Sam Burns, ranked 29th in the OWGR, is notable for his elite putting, demonstrating +0.83 SG: Putting. His consistency is also strong, having made the cut in 27 out of 33 tournaments this season, coupled with seven top-10 finishes as of June 2026 [^][^]. DataGolf further reinforces Burns's potential, ranking him 12th with a skill estimate of 1.57 [^].
DataGolf skill estimates identify additional strong contenders outside the top favorites. Patrick Cantlay is ranked 11th by DataGolf, holding a skill estimate of 1.58. J.J. Spaun is also a strong candidate, ranked 13th with a skill estimate of 1.47. Maverick McNealy is positioned 14th with a skill estimate of 1.46, and Collin Morikawa is ranked 15th with a skill estimate of 1.4. All these rankings and skill estimates are provided by DataGolf [^].
8. How might the forecasted weather conditions at Shinnecock Hills for June 20-21 affect player strategies and the overall leaderboard?
| June 20 Wind Speed | 15-20 mph west winds, gusts up to 29 mph [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| June 21 Wind Speed | 6-16 mph west to southwest winds, gusts up to 22-24 mph [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Player Wind Compensation | At least a "two-club wind" adjustment needed [^] |
Strong west winds will significantly impact player strategies. Forecasted strong west winds on June 20-21 at Shinnecock Hills will necessitate players to compensate for at least a "two-club wind," making driving accuracy and precise iron play paramount for success [^][^][^][^]. These challenging conditions are also expected to heighten the mental toughness required for the U.S. Open [^][^].
June 20 will bring strong, steady west winds and crucial demands. Winds are expected to be between 15-20 mph, with gusts potentially reaching up to 29 mph [^][^][^][^][^]. This will make driving accuracy especially crucial, as errant shots could be severely penalized by the wind, Shinnecock's dense rough, and numerous bunkers [^][^]. Precise iron play will also be critical due to the wind and the course's fast, sloping greens [^][^][^][^]. Stronger winds are anticipated in the afternoon, potentially giving an advantage to early starters [^].
On June 21, winds will remain westerly but slightly calmer. Winds will be from the west to southwest, ranging from 6-16 mph, with gusts up to 22-24 mph [^][^][^][^][^]. Despite being less intense than the previous day, these conditions will still demand careful consideration on a course where wind is an integral part of its design [^][^]. There is also a 20% chance of rain, though significant precipitation is not expected [^]. Players who can consistently hit fairways and greens in regulation will hold a distinct advantage, and the consistent westerly wind direction throughout the weekend will ensure a fair test for all contenders [^][^][^][^].
9. Based on his performance through two rounds, what specific strengths in Wyndham Clark's game support his potential for a top-20 finish?
| Current U.S. Open Performance | Four-shot lead at 7-under par, lowest 36-hole score at Shinnecock Hills for a U.S. Open [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Recent Tournament Victory | The CJ Cup Byron Nelson in May 2026 [^][^] |
| DataGolf Ranking | Rank 18 with 1.31 strokes gained [^] |
Wyndham Clark leads the U.S. Open, showcasing key strengths. Clark has demonstrated strong potential for a top-20 finish at the 2026 U.S. Open, currently holding a four-shot lead at 7-under par through two rounds [^][^][^]. This outstanding performance also establishes the lowest 36-hole score ever recorded at Shinnecock Hills for a U.S. Open [^][^][^]. His game strengths, including his skill in navigating difficult, windy conditions, composure under major championship pressure, and effective ball-striking, are critical factors in his strong position [^][^].
Recent victories and top rankings further bolster Clark's prospects. Clark's recent form provides additional evidence of his potential, including a victory at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson in May 2026 and a third-place finish at The Memorial Tournament earlier in the season [^][^][^][^]. As the reigning 2023 U.S. Open champion, he possesses significant major championship experience. Furthermore, his DataGolf rank of 18, coupled with a skill estimate of 1.31 strokes gained, firmly places him among the elite players and underscores his overall skill level [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled for June 18–21, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, NY [^][^]. Prediction markets for "U.S. Open: Top 20 Finishers" resolve if a listed player finishes in the top 20, including ties [^][^]. As of June 17, 2026, Polymarket's "2026 U.S. Open Top 20" listed Scottie Scheffler as the leading outcome at 56% and Rory McIlroy next at 54% [^]. On June 18, 2026, Robinhood’s "U.S. Open: Top 20 Finishers" page showed top listed contracts for Tommy Fleetwood (51¢), Matt Fitzpatrick (50¢), Cameron Young (43¢), Rory McIlroy (52¢), and Jon Rahm (52¢) [^].
A major part of late-week re-pricing in the market is attributed to wind forecasts at Shinnecock Hills, with gusts around 30–35 mph, as the market actively trades the forecast for players hitting different tee-time weather waves [^] . Player skill estimates also serve as a catalyst, with DataGolf ranking Scottie Scheffler 1st (2.85 strokes gained), Rory McIlroy 2nd (2.11 strokes gained), and Jon Rahm 3rd (2.09 strokes gained) [^]. Other top-ranked players include Cameron Young (4th at 1.83 strokes gained), Matt Fitzpatrick (5th at 1.82 strokes gained), and Tommy Fleetwood (6th at 1.82 strokes gained) [^]. Polymarket pages for U.S. Open placement markets generally reference a resolution timing of June 27, 2026 8:00 PM ET as a fallback for settlement [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 19, 2026
- Closes: July 19, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 U.S.
- Trigger: Open is scheduled for June 18–21, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, NY [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets for "U.S.
- Trigger: Open: Top 20 Finishers" resolve if a listed player finishes in the top 20, including ties [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP20-USO26-JAS: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-USO26-BLEE: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-USO26-HDUP: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-USO26-CPHI: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-RBBCAN26-BKOH: NO (Jun 15, 2026)
