U.s. Open: Top 10 Finishers
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Wyndham Clark to finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Scottie Scheffler shows superior final-round major championship performance.
- Historically, no U.S. Open 54-hole leader with a six-shot lead missed Top 10.
- Shinnecock Hills' final-round course conditions may heighten risk for aggressive play.
- High wind speeds at Shinnecock Hills heavily influenced market catalysts.
- Performance of pre-tournament favorites significantly impacted prediction market catalysts.
- Collin Morikawa appears to need strong final-round play for a Top 10 finish.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kim | 63.0% | 53.0% | Tom Kim is a rising star with the potential for a high placement. |
| Bud Cauley | 3.0% | 1.0% | Bud Cauley possesses the skill to contend for a top 10 finish at the U.S. Open. |
| Miles Russell | 2.0% | 0.7% | His current standing and form do not project a strong finish in a major championship. |
| Ryder Cowan | 13.0% | 5.8% | Ryder Cowan is listed as a potential top-10 finisher in the U.S. Open. |
| Ben Kohles | 5.0% | 1.8% | Ben Kohles possesses the skill to contend for a top 10 finish at the U.S. Open. |
Current Context
Wyndham Clark holds a commanding six-stroke lead at the U.S. Open. Wyndham Clark leads the 126th U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills with a 54-hole score of 7-under 203, establishing a six-stroke advantage as of the conclusion of the third round on June 20, 2026 [^][^][^]. Following Clark, players tied for second at 1-under include Scottie Scheffler, Sahith Theegala, Tom Kim, and Sam Stevens. Emiliano Grillo, Keith Mitchell, Sam Burns, and Xander Schauffele are tied for sixth at even par, while Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, and Matt Fitzpatrick are tied for tenth at 1-over par [^]. Scottie Scheffler, entering the final round on his 30th birthday, trails by six shots as he attempts to complete a career Grand Slam [^][^].
Course conditions at Shinnecock Hills intensified, making Clark's lead seem insurmountable. The course conditions at Shinnecock Hills significantly tightened on Saturday due to wind and firmer greens, transforming the tournament into a rigorous test characteristic of a U.S. Open [^][^][^]. Most expert analysts describe the tournament as effectively over, with Clark possessing a commanding and likely insurmountable lead [^][^][^].
DataGolf rankings provide broader context on leading players' skill estimates. In terms of general skill estimates, DataGolf rankings list Scottie Scheffler as 1st with 2.85 strokes gained [^]. Rory McIlroy is ranked 2nd with 2.11 strokes gained, followed by Jon Rahm at 3rd with 2.09 strokes gained [^]. Cameron Young holds the 4th position with 1.83 strokes gained, and Matt Fitzpatrick is 5th with 1.82 strokes gained [^]. Tommy Fleetwood is 6th (1.82 strokes gained), Xander Schauffele is 7th (1.72 strokes gained), Ludvig Aberg is 8th (1.71 strokes gained), Russell Henley is 9th (1.71 strokes gained), and Si Woo Kim is 10th (1.7 strokes gained) [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has experienced a significant downward trend, with the probability of a top 10 finish for this contract falling from a starting price of 35.0% to its current low of 3.0%. The price traded within a wide range, from a high of 53.0% to a low of 2.0%. The most notable price action includes a 10.0 percentage point spike on June 18 and a subsequent 40.0 percentage point crash on June 21. The initial spike appears to have been driven by a strong first-round performance, where the golfer carded a 1-under par 69, which boosted market confidence.
The sharp reversal and 40.0 percentage point drop on June 21 brought the price from 43.0% down to 3.0%. While the provided context does not offer a specific performance-related reason for this individual's price drop, the broader tournament update notes Wyndham Clark establishing a commanding lead after the third round, with a number of other golfers occupying the top ten positions. This market collapse suggests a major negative development, consistent with a player falling out of contention. The price action reflects a dramatic shift in market sentiment, moving from early optimism to a brief period of bullishness after the first round, before turning overwhelmingly bearish as the tournament progressed.
With over 30,000 contracts traded, the market has seen significant activity, indicating strong conviction from participants reacting to on-course events. Key price levels were established at the peak near 53.0%, which acted as strong resistance, and the current level near the all-time low of 2.0%, which is now acting as a support floor. The price action suggests traders believe the chances of a top 10 finish are now minimal, a sentiment reflected in the near-zero price.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📉 June 21, 2026: 40.0pp drop
Price decreased from 43.0% to 3.0%
What happened: The provided research does not identify a specific cause for a 40.0 percentage point drop in Ludvig Aberg's U.S. Open Top 10 finisher odds on June 21, 2026, as there is no verified information regarding such a drop related to his performance [^][^]. Instead, media reports highlighted Aberg's positive first-round performance, where he gained 2.64 strokes against the field on the greens after switching to a mallet putter [^][^]. No social media activity from key figures or breaking news that would precipitate such a market movement were found in the available sources. Therefore, a primary driver cannot be determined, and social media appears irrelevant given the lack of evidence for the market movement itself.
📈 June 18, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 27.0% to 37.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point price spike on June 18, 2026, was Ludvig Aberg's strong performance in the first round of the U.S. Open. Aberg carded a 1-under par 69 at Shinnecock Hills, immediately boosting his prospects for a Top 10 finish, with reports also noting his effective use of a new mallet-style putter [^][^][^][^]. Social media activity was irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific price spike, as no evidence supports a corresponding "10.0pp" social media surge directly linked to the movement on this date, despite general attention he received as a contender [^].
Outcome: Keegan Bradley
📉 June 20, 2026: 53.0pp drop
Price decreased from 79.0% to 26.0%
What happened: The primary driver for Keegan Bradley's prediction market price drop was his standing at the 2026 U.S. Open. As of the conclusion of the third round on June 20, 2026, Keegan Bradley was tied for 13th place at 2-over par [^][^][^]. This position, outside the top 10 with only one round remaining, significantly reduced the perceived likelihood of him achieving a Top 10 finish. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant.
📉 June 08, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 18.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The provided sources do not identify a specific primary driver for the 17.0 percentage point drop in Keegan Bradley's "Top 10 Finishers" prediction market price on June 08, 2026. Although Bradley ultimately did not achieve a top-10 finish at the 2026 U.S. Open [^], information regarding his tournament performance, such as his T13 position in Round 3, was reported during the event (June 18-21, 2026), after the market movement date [^]. No relevant social media activity or traditional news announcements preceding June 08, 2026, were found in the provided research to explain this pre-tournament price adjustment. Therefore, social media appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver based on the given information.
Outcome: Jacob Bridgeman
📉 June 15, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 18.0% to 9.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop in Jacob Bridgeman's prediction market for a top-10 finish at the 2026 U.S. Open was primarily driven by his confirmed non-participation in the tournament [^][^]. The U.S. Open officially commenced on June 18, 2026, just three days after the market movement, making confirmation of player rosters highly likely by June 15, 2026 [^][^]. Such an absence would logically render any top-10 finish impossible, causing a sharp drop in market price. Social media was irrelevant to this movement, as there is no evidence of a social media catalyst for this specific price drop [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Tom Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open. It resolves to NO if he does not, or if he forfeits, withdraws, or doesn't participate after teeing off. If he forfeits, withdraws, or doesn't participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opened on May 19, 2026, and will close after the outcome or by July 5, 2026, with projected payouts 5 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kim | $0.65 | $0.37 | 63% |
| Keith Mitchell | $0.52 | $0.50 | 50% |
| Emiliano Grillo | $0.45 | $0.56 | 43% |
| J.T. Poston | $0.17 | $0.85 | 17% |
| William Mouw | $0.08 | $0.94 | 14% |
| Ryder Cowan | $0.13 | $0.89 | 13% |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | $0.05 | $0.97 | 12% |
| John Parry | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Zac Blair | $0.09 | $0.93 | 9% |
| James Nicholas | $0.01 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Angel Hidalgo | $0.01 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Ben Kohles | $0.03 | $0.98 | 5% |
| Benjamin James | $0.14 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Max Greyserman | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | $0.01 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Max McGreevy | $0.07 | $0.94 | 4% |
| Neal Shipley | $0.01 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Bud Cauley | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Peter Uihlein | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Caleb Surratt | $0.79 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Jackson Van Paris | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Miles Russell | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Spencer Tibbits | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Andrew Putnam | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Dylan Wu | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Harry Higgs | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Eric Lee | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Marek Fleming | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Wyndham Clark | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.89 | $0.12 | 88% |
| Xander Schauffele | $0.69 | $0.33 | 69% |
| Sahith Theegala | $0.64 | $0.37 | 63% |
| Sam Burns | $0.64 | $0.37 | 63% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.62 | $0.40 | 60% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $0.57 | $0.45 | 57% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $0.55 | $0.48 | 55% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.50 | $0.52 | 51% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.02 | $1.00 | 42% |
| Rory McIlroy | $0.34 | $0.68 | 35% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | $0.31 | $0.70 | 32% |
| Keegan Bradley | $0.29 | $0.73 | 30% |
| Corey Conners | $0.26 | $0.75 | 26% |
| Maverick McNealy | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
| Aaron Rai | $0.18 | $0.84 | 18% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $0.17 | $0.85 | 17% |
| Gary Woodland | $0.17 | $0.84 | 17% |
| Brian Harman | $0.16 | $0.85 | 16% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.16 | $0.87 | 16% |
| Michael Kim | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $0.15 | $0.87 | 15% |
| Sungjae Im | $0.15 | $0.88 | 15% |
| Justin Rose | $0.14 | $0.88 | 14% |
| Jackson Koivun | $0.41 | $1.00 | 13% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $0.13 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Cameron Young | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Dustin Johnson | $0.10 | $0.92 | 10% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.02 | $0.99 | 9% |
| John Keefer | $0.35 | $0.99 | 7% |
| Pierceson Coody | $0.08 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Joaquin Niemann | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Robert MacIntyre | $0.02 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Patrick Rodgers | $0.01 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Russell Henley | $0.01 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $0.12 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.42 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.34 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Laurie Canter | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | $0.40 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
As the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills concludes, Wyndham Clark holds a commanding lead, making him highly favored for a top 10 finish, while pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler has faced significant struggles with his putting [^]. Several players, including Scottie Scheffler, Sahith Theegala, Tom Kim, and Sam Stevens, are currently tied at -1, with Emiliano Grillo, Keith Mitchell, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tommy Fleetwood also contending near even par for a top 10 spot [^]. Analysts had also previously highlighted Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood as strong "best bets" for a T-10 finish, noting their form and suitability for Shinnecock's conditions [^].
5. Which players currently in the Top 10, such as Sam Stevens or Keith Mitchell, are most significantly outperforming their pre-tournament DataGolf skill rankings?
| Sam Stevens 2026 U.S. Open R2 position | T2 [^] |
|---|---|
| Sam Stevens best previous U.S. Open finish | T23 in 2025 [^] |
| Si Woo Kim DataGolf vs OWGR ranks | DataGolf rank 10, OWGR rank 19 [^] |
Direct pre-tournament DataGolf outperformance assessment is currently unfeasible for the 2026 U.S. Open. A direct assessment of players significantly outperforming their pre-tournament DataGolf skill rankings for the 2026 U.S. Open Top 10 is not possible due to the unavailability of these specific rankings. Despite this, some players on the leaderboard exhibit general outperformance. For instance, Sam Stevens is T2 after Round 2, representing a substantial improvement over his best prior U.S. Open finish of T23 in 2025 [^]. Keith Mitchell is T11 after Round 2, which suggests a strong performance relative to his overall ranking [^]. However, pre-tournament DataGolf skill rankings for both Stevens and Mitchell were not provided [^].
Current DataGolf rankings reveal players outperforming their Official World Golf Rankings. While specific pre-tournament DataGolf rankings are unavailable, comparing current DataGolf skill rankings to Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) can identify players performing above general expectations. Si Woo Kim shows the most notable difference, with a DataGolf rank of 10 against an OWGR rank of 19 [^]. Other players demonstrating stronger current DataGolf ranks compared to their OWGR positions include Ludvig Aberg (DataGolf rank: 8, OWGR rank: 13), Xander Schauffele (DataGolf rank: 7, OWGR rank: 11), and Jon Rahm (DataGolf rank: 3, OWGR rank: 6) [^]. It is important to note that it is not specified whether these particular players are currently within the Top 10 of the 2026 U.S. Open leaderboard [^].
6. How do Scottie Scheffler and Sahith Theegala, both tied for second, compare in final-round strokes gained and scoring average in major championships?
| Scottie Scheffler Major Final-Round Average | 69.79 [^] |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler PGA TOUR Final-Round Average | 67.50 [^] |
| Sahith Theegala PGA TOUR Final-Round Average | 69.88 [^][^][^] |
Scottie Scheffler demonstrates superior final-round performance in major championships. He boasts an impressive final-round scoring average of 69.79 in major championships [^] and an even lower 67.50 in PGA TOUR final rounds [^]. By June 2026, Scheffler had secured four major championships, frequently closing out tournaments after holding 54-hole leads. His consistent success in these high-pressure final rounds is often attributed to elite strokes gained metrics, particularly in approach play and putting [^].
Sahith Theegala shows solid PGA TOUR final-round scoring, but major data is limited. His PGA TOUR final-round scoring average is 69.88, with reports generally placing it between 69.60 and 69.88 [^][^][^]. However, the available research does not explicitly confirm whether this average specifically applies to major championships. Furthermore, a direct head-to-head comparison of final-round strokes gained in major championships between Scheffler and Theegala is not available in the provided sources [^][^][^].
7. What final-round scoring scenarios at Shinnecock Hills could allow players like Tommy Fleetwood or Collin Morikawa to move from T10 into a more secure Top 10 position?
| Collin Morikawa current standing | T10 at +1 (211 total) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood current standing | T17 at +3 (213 total) [^] |
| T10 group score | +1 (211 total) [^][^][^] |
Collin Morikawa needs to maintain or improve his position. Morikawa is currently tied for 10th place at +1 (211 total) after the third round of the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, sharing this score with two other players [^][^][^][^][^]. To secure a Top 10 finish, he must maintain or improve his standing relative to players at +2 and +3, given the tight scoring congestion around par. The T6 group is at Even par (210 total), while T13 is at +2 (212 total) [^][^][^][^][^]. Morikawa holds a general rank of 15th overall with an estimated skill of 1.4 strokes gained [^].
Tommy Fleetwood faces a more challenging path to Top 10. Fleetwood is positioned at T17 with a score of +3 (213 total), placing him outside the current top-ranked players [^][^][^][^][^]. For Fleetwood to move into a secure Top 10 position from T17, he would require significant improvement in his standing relative to the T10 group at +1 and the T6 group at Even par, due to the narrow score differences [^][^][^][^][^]. Fleetwood holds a general rank of 6th overall with an estimated skill of 1.82 strokes gained [^].
Specific final-round scenarios for securing Top 10 are undefined. While general player skill rankings are provided, the research does not include specific final-round scoring scenarios that would definitively determine how players like Morikawa or Fleetwood might achieve a more secure Top 10 position [^].
8. Historically, how often have 54-hole leaders with a six-stroke or greater lead failed to finish in the Top 10 at the U.S. Open?
| U.S. Open 6+ Stroke 54-Hole Lead (Top 10) | Never failed to finish in Top 10 [^] |
|---|---|
| Major 6+ Stroke 54-Hole Lead (Failed to Win) | 1 player (Greg Norman, 1996 Masters) [^] |
| U.S. Open 6+ Stroke 54-Hole Lead (Win/Top Result) | 20 out of 21 converted (according to a 2026-06-21 Golfweek-style recap) [^] |
Six-stroke U.S. Open leaders consistently finish in the Top 10. In the history of the U.S. Open, no player holding a six-shot or greater lead after 54 holes has ever failed to finish in the Top 10 [^]. This trend is supported by the fact that no player has ever lost a lead of more than five strokes after 54 holes at the U.S. Open [^]. More broadly, of 21 players who have held at least a six-shot lead entering the final round of the U.S. Open, 20 converted that lead to at least a win or top result [^].
Major championship leaders with large leads rarely lose. Across all major championships, players entering the final round with a 54-hole lead of six strokes or more have an exceptionally high success rate in converting their lead into a victory [^]. As of recent coverage, there have been 12 prior instances where such a leader went on to win [^][^]. The sole exception to this strong record is Greg Norman at the 1996 Masters, who failed to secure the victory despite holding a lead of at least six shots through 54 holes [^].
9. How might the expected final-round course conditions and pin placements at Shinnecock Hills affect aggressive versus conservative playing styles among the chase pack?
| Target green speed | about 11.0 on the stimpmeter [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Course firmness progression | progressively firmer [^][^][^] |
| Expected decision-making dispersion | increase the dispersion between aggressive and conservative decision-making within the chase pack [^][^][^] |
Expected final-round course conditions at Shinnecock Hills will heighten risk for aggressive play. The USGA plans to prepare the course to play progressively firmer, targeting green speeds of approximately 11.0 on the stimpmeter as conditions tighten [^][^][^]. Reporting on the setup for the 2026 U.S. Open emphasizes wind-adjusted hole locations and the potential for the course to dry out quickly, which significantly increases the penalty for directly attacking pins rather than playing with controlled dispersion [^][^][^][^]. These firm and fast conditions, combined with punitive pin placements, are expected to amplify the differences between aggressive and conservative decision-making within the chase pack [^][^][^][^].
Chase pack players will favor risk due to strategic incentives. In a final-round leaderboard context, players vying for position still have a strong strategic reason to take risks. The payout structure for a Top 10 finish often favors increasing the odds of reaching that cutoff over merely avoiding bogeys [^][^]. Therefore, the anticipated firm and fast conditions, coupled with punitive pinning, should generally increase the dispersion between aggressive and conservative decision-making among players in the chase pack, as they weigh these strategic incentives against the heightened course difficulty [^][^][^].
Existing player skill rankings cannot predict specific player adaptation to these conditions. While DataGolf player skill rankings accurately reflect overall player strength, they do not incorporate information regarding specific course conditions, particular pin placements, or how individual players adapt their aggressive versus conservative playing styles to such variables [^]. Consequently, this data cannot be directly used to predict how the expected final-round conditions at Shinnecock Hills might affect the playing styles adopted by members of the chase pack [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Bullish and bearish catalysts in the 2026 U.S. Open prediction markets were heavily influenced by weather forecasts, particularly high wind speeds at Shinnecock Hills [^][^][^]. The performance of pre-tournament favorites, such as Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, also played a significant role [^]. As of the start of the tournament on June 18, 2026, Scottie Scheffler was the leading favorite in prediction markets, with implied win probabilities ranging from approximately 13% to 15% [^]. He was ranked 1st by DataGolf with a skill estimate of 2.85 strokes gained, while Rory McIlroy was ranked 2nd with 2.11 strokes gained [^].
During the tournament, Wyndham Clark held a significant lead through two rounds with a score of -7, which could have significantly impacted market probabilities [^] [^] [^] . Open Golf Championship: Leaderboard">[^][^][^]. Other notable players in the top 10 positions after two rounds included Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa, whose performances also acted as key catalysts [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 19, 2026
- Closes: July 19, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Bullish and bearish catalysts in the 2026 U.S.
- Trigger: Open prediction markets were heavily influenced by weather forecasts, particularly high wind speeds at Shinnecock Hills [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The performance of pre-tournament favorites, such as Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, also played a significant role [^] .
- Trigger: As of the start of the tournament on June 18, 2026, Scottie Scheffler was the leading favorite in prediction markets, with implied win probabilities ranging from approximately 13% to 15% [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP10-USO26-JAS: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-USO26-BLEE: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-USO26-HDUP: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-USO26-CPHI: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-RBBCAN26-BKOH: NO (Jun 14, 2026)
