Rbc Heritage: Top 20 Finishers
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Specific golfer performance data for the event cannot be compiled.
- Player improvement at RBC Heritage versus season average is not feasible.
- No historical line movement data is available from European sportsbooks.
- Specific player identification based on all criteria could not be completed.
- Late/early wave expected to gain over 0.5 strokes advantage.
- The market experienced significant price spikes during mid-April 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 6.0% | 2.2% | His performance depends on leveraging recent improvements in his short game. |
| Jordan Spieth | 40.0% | 27.1% | He often performs strongly at Harbour Town with his creative play around the greens. |
| Patrick Cantlay | 55.0% | 43.1% | His consistent ball-striking and strategic course management are key for a top finish. |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 9.0% | 3.6% | Expect strong iron play and consistent tee-to-green performance from Fleetwood. |
| Scottie Scheffler | 86.0% | 81.7% | His dominant form and elite all-around game make him a top contender. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📈 April 16, 2026: 41.0pp spike
Price increased from 49.0% to 90.0%
📈 April 13, 2026: 38.0pp spike
Price increased from 13.0% to 51.0%
Outcome: Daniel Berger
📈 April 14, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 21.0% to 30.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 RBC Heritage. It resolves to "No" if he does not meet this condition, or if he withdraws/forfeits after teeing off; however, if he withdraws, forfeits, or does not participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opens on April 13, 2026, closes after the outcome or by May 16, 2026, and projected payouts occur 5 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.89 | $0.13 | 89% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $0.88 | $0.15 | 88% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.86 | $0.17 | 86% |
| Viktor Hovland | $0.78 | $0.25 | 78% |
| Harris English | $0.77 | $0.27 | 77% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.74 | $0.28 | 74% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.70 | $0.36 | 70% |
| Robert MacIntyre | $0.69 | $0.34 | 69% |
| Rickie Fowler | $0.82 | $0.63 | 68% |
| Russell Henley | $0.68 | $0.35 | 67% |
| Sepp Straka | $0.58 | $0.45 | 60% |
| Xander Schauffele | $0.61 | $0.42 | 60% |
| Andrew Novak | $0.57 | $0.49 | 57% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $0.55 | $0.49 | 55% |
| Corey Conners | $0.54 | $0.53 | 53% |
| Gary Woodland | $0.53 | $0.50 | 53% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.54 | $0.49 | 53% |
| Sungjae Im | $0.52 | $0.50 | 53% |
| Daniel Berger | $0.46 | $0.61 | 50% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.78 | $0.72 | 49% |
| Keegan Bradley | $0.47 | $0.58 | 47% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.41 | $0.64 | 40% |
| Cameron Young | $0.38 | $0.65 | 38% |
| Wyndham Clark | $0.38 | $0.68 | 38% |
| J.J. Spaun | $0.34 | $0.68 | 33% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.28 | $0.77 | 33% |
| Sam Burns | $0.32 | $0.71 | 31% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.33 | $0.74 | 30% |
| Bud Cauley | $0.33 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Min Woo Lee | $0.31 | $0.78 | 29% |
| Jake Knapp | $0.29 | $0.74 | 28% |
| Sahith Theegala | $0.29 | $0.75 | 28% |
| Sami Valimaki | $0.53 | $0.74 | 28% |
| Harry Hall | $0.24 | $0.81 | 26% |
| Jason Day | $0.30 | $0.75 | 26% |
| Matthew McCarty | $0.28 | $0.76 | 26% |
| Nick Taylor | $0.35 | $0.76 | 26% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | $0.25 | $0.84 | 25% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.45 | $1.00 | 24% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.22 | $0.81 | 22% |
| Jordan L. Smith | $0.23 | $0.83 | 22% |
| Pierceson Coody | $0.39 | $1.00 | 22% |
| Matt Wallace | $0.23 | $0.81 | 21% |
| Michael Kim | $0.41 | $1.00 | 21% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.30 | $0.78 | 21% |
| Max Homa | $0.22 | $0.84 | 20% |
| William Mouw | $0.50 | $1.00 | 20% |
| Brian Harman | $0.20 | $0.86 | 19% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | $0.23 | $0.87 | 19% |
| J.T. Poston | $0.17 | $0.87 | 15% |
| Joe Highsmith | $0.20 | $0.87 | 15% |
| Patrick Rodgers | $0.15 | $0.88 | 15% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.19 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Chandler Blanchet | $0.09 | $1.00 | 14% |
| Steven Fisk | $0.14 | $0.91 | 14% |
| Alex Noren | $0.12 | $1.00 | 13% |
| Andrew Putnam | $0.44 | $0.89 | 13% |
| Lucas Glover | $0.18 | $0.91 | 13% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $0.17 | $0.93 | 11% |
| John Keefer | $0.14 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.10 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Marco Penge | $0.09 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.10 | $0.95 | 10% |
| Maverick McNealy | $0.16 | $0.93 | 9% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $0.23 | $0.94 | 9% |
| Tom Hoge | $0.09 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $0.09 | $0.95 | 9% |
| Denny McCarthy | $0.09 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $0.30 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Karl Vilips | $0.09 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Garrick Higgo | $0.33 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Ricky Castillo | $0.14 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Adam Schenk | $0.09 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Billy Horschel | $0.10 | $0.94 | 6% |
| David Lipsky | $0.09 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | $0.09 | $0.96 | 6% |
| Taylor Pendrith | $0.09 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $0.10 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $0.09 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Tony Finau | $0.10 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Austin Smotherman | $0.09 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | $0.09 | $1.00 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Why Can't Specific Golfer Performance Data Be Compiled?
| Historical Harbour Town Performance | Strokes Gained: Total over five appearances [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Recent Strokes Gained: Approach | Top 25 PGA Tour rankings in the three months prior [^], [^] |
| Definitive Golfer List | Unavailable without direct content access from identified web sources [^]. |
6. Can Golfer RBC Heritage Improvements Be Compared to Season Average?
| Comparative Season Data Availability | Not explicitly available for golfer improvement analysis [^] |
|---|---|
| RBC Heritage Tournament Results | Historically well-documented for 2023 [^], 2024 [^], and 2025 [^] |
| Requirement for Improvement Analysis | Player season average finishing positions across all events needed [^] |
7. What are Golfers' Current Top 20 Finish Probabilities for RBC Heritage?
| Scottie Scheffler Top 20 Probability | 66% (Polymarket) [^] |
|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele Top 20 Probability | 55% (Polymarket) [^] |
| Patrick Cantlay Top 20 Probability | 53% (Polymarket) [^] |
8. What Data Gaps Prevent Identifying Specific Golf Players?
| Prior Top 20 Finishes | None of the listed sources [^] through [^] provide historical tournament results for Harbour Town. |
|---|---|
| Good Drives Gained Stats | Not explicitly listed as available for direct retrieval from sources [^], [^], [^], and [^]. |
| Player Rankings & Scrambling | Detailed player lists for OWGR [^], [^], [^] and 'Scrambling' [^], [^], [^] require URL parsing. |
9. What Weather Advantage Does the Late/Early Wave Hold?
| Projected Stroke Advantage | More than 0.5 strokes for late/early wave [^] |
|---|---|
| Friday Morning Conditions (Late/Early Wave) | Consistent winds 10-15 mph; lower chance of rain [^] |
| Friday Afternoon Conditions (Early/Late Wave) | 30-40% chance of scattered showers, gusts up to 20 mph [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 17, 2026
- Closes: May 17, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP20-RBH26-JROS: SCALAR (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-GAW: NO (Apr 12, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-DAW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MIW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-BUW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
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