Rbc Heritage: Top 20 Finishers
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- 2026 Masters cut players are clearly identifiable for analysis.
- Golfers ranked 45-60 in OWGR are on the bubble for qualification.
- Market saw a 27 percentage point drop on April 19.
- Market experienced an 11 percentage point spike on April 18.
- Market had a 40 percentage point spike on April 17.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 3.0% | 1.0% | A lesser-known player, a top 20 finish would be a significant surprise. |
| Jordan Spieth | 10.0% | 4.1% | As a former winner of this event, he often performs strongly at Harbour Town. |
| Patrick Cantlay | 92.0% | 89.8% | Consistently ranks among the top players and frequently contends for high finishes. |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 1.0% | 0.3% | Has shown strong and consistent play in recent PGA Tour events. |
| Scottie Scheffler | 99.0% | 98.7% | The world's top-ranked player consistently delivers dominant performances and high finishes. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Daniel Berger
📉 April 19, 2026: 27.0pp drop
Price decreased from 37.0% to 10.0%
📈 April 18, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 26.0% to 37.0%
📈 April 14, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 21.0% to 30.0%
Outcome: Akshay Bhatia
📈 April 17, 2026: 40.0pp spike
Price increased from 11.0% to 51.0%
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📈 April 16, 2026: 41.0pp spike
Price increased from 49.0% to 90.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Sepp Straka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 RBC Heritage; otherwise, it resolves to "No" if he fails to place or withdraws/forfeits after teeing off. If Straka forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opened on April 13, 2026, and will close after the event's outcome or by May 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $1.00 | $0.02 | 97% |
| Sepp Straka | $0.93 | $0.15 | 95% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.95 | $0.12 | 95% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $0.92 | $0.17 | 92% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.90 | $0.14 | 87% |
| Brian Harman | $0.89 | $0.16 | 85% |
| Viktor Hovland | $0.83 | $0.29 | 81% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.77 | $0.32 | 75% |
| Andrew Novak | $0.81 | $0.25 | 74% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | $0.73 | $0.34 | 73% |
| Bud Cauley | $0.74 | $0.33 | 72% |
| Gary Woodland | $0.85 | $0.29 | 72% |
| Pierceson Coody | $0.71 | $0.38 | 71% |
| Harris English | $0.81 | $0.30 | 70% |
| Rickie Fowler | $0.68 | $0.33 | 67% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.64 | $0.38 | 64% |
| Patrick Rodgers | $0.56 | $0.51 | 56% |
| Cameron Young | $0.55 | $0.48 | 55% |
| Xander Schauffele | $0.56 | $0.47 | 54% |
| Steven Fisk | $0.51 | $0.56 | 51% |
| Sam Burns | $0.50 | $0.51 | 50% |
| Sami Valimaki | $0.49 | $0.59 | 47% |
| Robert MacIntyre | $0.47 | $0.64 | 45% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.43 | $0.60 | 45% |
| Russell Henley | $0.40 | $0.62 | 38% |
| Lucas Glover | $0.41 | $0.69 | 37% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $0.44 | $0.60 | 36% |
| J.J. Spaun | $0.35 | $0.71 | 28% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $0.33 | $0.71 | 28% |
| Joe Highsmith | $0.28 | $0.77 | 28% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.27 | $0.81 | 27% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | $0.10 | $1.00 | 26% |
| Keegan Bradley | $0.33 | $0.83 | 25% |
| Wyndham Clark | $0.32 | $0.78 | 23% |
| Matthew McCarty | $0.32 | $0.81 | 21% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.26 | $0.88 | 21% |
| Maverick McNealy | $0.19 | $0.92 | 18% |
| Min Woo Lee | $0.27 | $0.83 | 18% |
| Sungjae Im | $0.16 | $0.97 | 16% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $0.01 | $1.00 | 15% |
| Sahith Theegala | $0.15 | $0.92 | 15% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.21 | $0.90 | 15% |
| Chandler Blanchet | $0.19 | $0.88 | 14% |
| Andrew Putnam | $0.10 | $0.95 | 10% |
| Daniel Berger | $0.10 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.10 | $0.93 | 10% |
| Karl Vilips | $0.10 | $0.94 | 10% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.10 | $1.00 | 10% |
| John Keefer | $0.10 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Matt Wallace | $0.10 | $0.99 | 9% |
| Tom Hoge | $0.09 | $0.99 | 9% |
| Alex Noren | $0.10 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.16 | $0.94 | 8% |
| Denny McCarthy | $0.01 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $0.01 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.01 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Garrick Higgo | $0.01 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Ricky Castillo | $0.01 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Adam Schenk | $0.07 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Billy Horschel | $0.01 | $1.00 | 6% |
| David Lipsky | $0.04 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Nick Taylor | $0.10 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Taylor Pendrith | $0.01 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Corey Conners | $0.10 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Harry Hall | $0.10 | $1.00 | 3% |
| J.T. Poston | $0.10 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $0.10 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | $0.10 | $1.00 | 3% |
| William Mouw | $0.25 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Austin Smotherman | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Jordan L. Smith | $0.10 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Marco Penge | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Jake Knapp | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jason Day | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Max Homa | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Michael Kim | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tony Finau | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What data is needed to identify top RBC Heritage golfers?
| Strokes Gained Data | Player-specific Strokes Gained: Approach and Around the Green over 24 rounds (Data Golf [^], [^], PGA TOUR Stats [^], [^], [^]) |
|---|---|
| Historical Performance | Previous Top-10 finishes at Harbour Town Golf Links (Data Golf [^]) |
| Tournament Field Information | The compiled field for the 2026 RBC Heritage ([^], [^], [^]) |
6. Which Players' RBC Heritage Top 20 Odds Shortened by Over 20%?
| Top 20 Odds Comparison (Monday vs. Thursday) | Specific comparative data for Monday to Thursday not found in research [^]. |
|---|---|
| Focus of Available Odds Sources | Primarily general odds for outright winners or current favorites [^]. |
| Missing Data for 20% Shortening Analysis | Direct comparison of Top 20 Finishers odds from Monday market opening vs. Thursday pre-tournament [^]. |
7. Can 2026 Masters Cut Players' Post-Major Underperformance Be Identified?
| 2026 Masters Cut Line | 5-over 149 [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Players Who Made Cut Identified | Yes, through leaderboards and cut-line reports [^], [^], [^] |
| Post-Major Underperformance Analysis | Cannot be fully determined due to missing historical PGA Tour schedules for 2024-2025 [^], [^], [^], [^], [^] |
8. What Are 2026 RBC Heritage Player Entry Methods?
| 2026 RBC Heritage Entry Details | Specific qualification methods (e.g., sponsor exemption, Monday qualifier) for individual players are not provided [^]. |
|---|---|
| Billy Horschel RBC Heritage | Participated in the 2021 tournament with scorecards available [^]. |
| Wyndham Clark Course Performance | Historical struggles on Pete Dye courses, including a missed cut at Harbour Town in 2023 [^]. |
9. How Does OWGR Impact Qualification for Signature Events and Majors?
| OWGR 'On the Bubble' Range | 45-60 (as of April 14, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Signature Event OWGR Qualification | Top 50 OWGR [^] |
| RBC Heritage Impact | Top-20 finish provides substantial OWGR points [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 17, 2026
- Closes: May 17, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Related News
Harman Surges in RBC Heritage Market as Live Play Reshuffles Odds
Prediction markets for the 2026 RBC Heritage Top 20 finishers saw a dramatic reshuffling on Saturday, April 18, 2026, as traders reacted to live, in-tournament performance. The most significant moveme...
RBC Heritage Market Re-sorts After R1; Aberg, English Surge
The prediction market for a top-20 finish at the 2026 RBC Heritage experienced a significant realignment on Thursday, April 16, as traders priced in the results from the tournament's first round of pl...
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP20-RBH26-JROS: SCALAR (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-GAW: NO (Apr 12, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-DAW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MIW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-BUW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
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