Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Alex Smalley to be a Top 20 Finisher in the 2026 PGA Championship, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has exhibited a distinct upward trend, opening at a 53.0% probability and climbing to its current price of 89.0%. The price has fluctuated within a wide range of 23.0% to 95.0% throughout the trading period. Analysis of price action reveals several volatile movements corresponding with the 2026 PGA Championship timeline. Notably, there was a 17.0 percentage point drop on May 14, followed by a sharp 44.0 percentage point spike the next day. Another significant spike of 21.0 percentage points occurred on May 16. Earlier, pre-tournament trading saw a 10.0 percentage point spike on May 8 and a 9.0 point drop on May 10.
The price volatility appears directly linked to on-course performance and news from the championship. The 17.0 point drop on May 14 for a contract related to Ludvig Aberg was driven by his deteriorating performance, which ultimately led to him missing the cut. The subsequent 44.0 point spike for the same contract on May 15 contradicts this development, as a player missing the cut would typically see their probability of a top 20 finish fall to zero. In contrast, the 21.0 point spike on May 16, which pushed a contract for Patrick Cantlay to 93.0%, corresponds with his strong position during the third round of the tournament. The reasons for the pre-tournament price shifts on May 8 and May 10 are not detailed in the available information. Overall, the market sentiment, reflected in the price rising to 89.0%, suggests a high degree of confidence in a "YES" resolution as the tournament concludes.
With a total volume of 60,326 contracts traded, the market has seen significant participant activity, suggesting strong conviction behind price movements. The 50.0% level acted as an early pivot point for market sentiment before the tournament began. Following the start of play, the price chart shows a bottom established around the 30.0% level before its significant climb. The market has since encountered resistance near the 95.0% mark, which represents its all-time high. The chart indicates a market that is highly responsive to real-time events, with traders rapidly repricing probabilities based on player performance.
  • Aronimink's design and final-round conditions may challenge leaders.
  • Scottie Scheffler's 'Strokes Gained' statistics indicate a likely Top 20 finish.
  • Rory McIlroy posted a 70.25 final-round average in 2025 major championships.
  • Live shot-tracking data will reveal player consistency at Aronimink Golf Club.
  • Some players demonstrate a history of significant final-round surges.
  • Prediction markets react to live 2026 PGA Championship tournament developments.

Current Context

The 2026 PGA Championship concludes today, May 17, in Pennsylvania. The tournament is being held at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, with its final round scheduled for today, May 17, 2026 [1][2][3].
Aaron Rai currently leads the field after the third round. As of the conclusion of the third round, Aaron Rai held the lead, with Rory McIlroy and Matti Schmid also identified as being in contention [2][3]. Early in the tournament, after the first round, Scottie Scheffler, Martin Kaymer, and Aldrich Potgieter were among the leaders [2][3].
Final top 20 finishers are not yet available. Since the 2026 PGA Championship is still in progress as of May 17, 2026, a comprehensive list of the top 20 finishers has not yet been finalized [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1PGA Championship 2026 results, leaderboard, scores: Check standings before final day on Sundayeconomictimes.indiatimes.com
  2. 2PGA Championship 2026 leaderboard: Rory McIlroy struggles, Scottie Scheffler, Martin Kaymer, Aldrich Potgieter leadeconomictimes.indiatimes.com
  3. 3US PGA Championship 2026 golf: Rai takes charge after McIlroy surges in third round – liveeuropesays.com
  4. 4PGA Championship 2026 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  5. 5PGA Championship 2026 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOURpgatour.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Patrick Cantlay

📉 May 16, 2026: 64.0pp drop

Price decreased from 69.0% to 5.0%

What happened: Research indicates no evidence of a "64.0 percentage point drop" or similar statistical collapse for Patrick Cantlay relating to his performance during the 2026 PGA Championship on May 16, 2026 [1][2]. On this date, Cantlay was listed at -3 during the third round of the championship, which was led by Alex Smalley at -6 [1][2]. Without substantiation of the described price movement tied to his performance in the tournament, identifying a primary driver, whether from social media or traditional news, is not possible [1][2]. Therefore, social media's role in a non-existent or unsubstantiated event cannot be determined.

📉 May 10, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 45.0% to 34.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not contain information detailing the cause of Patrick Cantlay's "Top 20 Finishers" prediction market price drop on May 10, 2026. This date is prior to the start of the 2026 PGA Championship, which was scheduled from May 14 to May 17, 2026 [3]. The available sources primarily focus on the tournament's schedule, eligibility, and subsequent in-progress results, with no specific news or social media activity related to Cantlay's status or performance on or around May 10, 2026. Therefore, social media's role in this particular price movement cannot be assessed with the given data.

Outcome: Ludvig Aberg

📈 May 15, 2026: 44.0pp spike

Price increased from 29.0% to 73.0%

What happened: A 44.0 percentage point price spike for Ludvig Aberg to finish in the Top 20 at the PGA Championship occurred on May 15, 2026. This movement contradicts the fact that Ludvig Åberg missed the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship [4], which would typically cause a market price to fall to zero for a "Top 20 Finishers" outcome. Without any data on specific social media activity, traditional news, or market structure events from that period, the primary driver for this anomalous price increase cannot be determined. Consequently, it is impossible to assess whether social media was a primary driver, a contributing accelerant, or irrelevant.

📉 May 14, 2026: 17.0pp drop

Price decreased from 50.0% to 33.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 17.0 percentage point drop in Ludvig Aberg's "Top 20 Finishers" market on May 14, 2026, was his deteriorating performance during the 2026 PGA Championship. Aberg ultimately missed the cut at the event, recording two-round scores of 70 and 75 for a total of +3, making a top-20 finish impossible [4]. This live competitive performance, reported by traditional sports media and reflected on tournament leaderboards, directly undermined market confidence in his ability to place [4]. While social media likely discussed and amplified real-time updates of his play, no specific influential social media activity appeared to lead this price movement, indicating social media was a contributing accelerant rather than the primary driver.

Outcome: Sam Burns

📉 May 11, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 40.0% to 30.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not contain information detailing the cause of the 10.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Sam Burns's Top 20 finish at the PGA Championship on May 11, 2026. The 2026 PGA Championship itself took place from May 14–17, 2026, which is after the date of the market movement [5][6]. Without specific social media posts, news announcements, or market events on or around May 11, 2026, the primary driver of this price shift cannot be identified. Based solely on the available sources, social media activity is irrelevant as no related information was found.
Sources (6)
  1. 1PGA Championship leaderboard, Saturday updates, scores, highlightsgolfweek.usatoday.com
  2. 2US PGA Championship 2026 golf: Rai takes charge after McIlroy surges in third round – liveeuropesays.com
  3. 3wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Ludvig Aberg Scorecards - 2026 - PGA Championship - Golf | FOX Sportsfoxsports.com
  5. 5PGA Championship 2026 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  6. 6PGA Championship 2026 Golf Leaderboardpgatour.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, and to No if he does not or withdraws after teeing off. If Aberg forfeits, withdraws, or doesn't participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opened on April 13, 2026, and closes after the outcome occurs or by June 14, 2026, with payout projected 5 minutes after closing.

Market Discussion

As of May 17, 2026, Alex Smalley leads the 2026 PGA Championship entering the final round, with market participants identifying Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy as top contenders for high finishes despite Scheffler's difficult third round [1]. Prior to the event, "Top 20 Finishers" prediction markets featured players like Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Bryson DeChambeau, and Patrick Cantlay, with traders noting Scottie Scheffler's tendency for slow starts [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1PGA Championship Round 4 Predictions, Picks & Odds: Alex Smalley Favored to Win Entering Sunday - Yahoo Sportssports.yahoo.com
  2. 2PGA Tour: PGA Championship Top 20 Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

5. How might the final-round pin placements and weather conditions at Aronimink Golf Club affect leaders like Aaron Rai and Rory McIlroy?

Event Date and LocationMay 14

17, 2026 (Aronimink Golf Club) [1][2]

Course DesignerDonald Ross [3][4]
Pin Placement DifficultyDescribed as "toughest encountered on Tour" by Scottie Scheffler [5][6][7]
Aronimink Golf Club's design presents significant challenges for PGA Championship competitors. The 2026 PGA Championship is scheduled to take place at Aronimink Golf Club from May 14-17, 2026 [1][2]. This course, designed by Donald Ross, is particularly recognized for its demanding green complexes, which are notably sloped and necessitate precise shot-making from golfers [3][4].
Difficult pin placements at Aronimink demand precise strategies from top players. Reports from the 2026 tournament indicate exceptionally difficult pin placements, with player Scottie Scheffler describing them as the toughest he has encountered on Tour [5][6][7]. Aaron Rai, known for his precision, is competing, and his accuracy may prove advantageous on the course's challenging demands [8][9][4][5]. Rory McIlroy has adopted a "little-target approach" to manage the challenging conditions at Aronimink, a strategy that has helped him remain in contention [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1PGA Championship | Official Websitepgachampionship.com
  2. 22026 PGA Championshipen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3A Hole-by-Hole Look at Aronimink Golf Club | PGA Championshippgachampionship.com
  4. 4Aronimink Golf Club course layout hole-by-holegolfweek.usatoday.com
  5. 5Pga championship pin locations diceygolf.com
  6. 6Scottie Scheffler said Aronimink's pin placements are the... - YouTubeyoutube.com
  7. 7The pin placements at Aronimink are no joke. | Skratch - Facebookfacebook.com
  8. 8Aaron Rai betting profile: PGA Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  9. 9Aaron Rai | PGA Championshippgachampionship.com
  10. 10PGA Championship 2026: Rory McIlroy's little-target approach has...golfdigest.com

6. What do Scottie Scheffler's 'Strokes Gained' statistics from the first three rounds indicate about his likelihood of a Top 20 finish?

Event2026 PGA Championship (May 14–17, 2026, Aronimink Golf Club) [1][2]
Event StatusIn progress; third round completed as of May 17, 2026 [3][4]
Strokes Gained StatisticsNot publicly aggregated or finalized for first three rounds [4]
Scottie Scheffler is competing in the ongoing 2026 PGA Championship. The 2026 PGA Championship is taking place from May 14–17, 2026, at Aronimink Golf Club [1][2]. As of May 17, 2026, the third round of the tournament has concluded, and Scottie Scheffler has participated in the event [3]. His overall performance in the championship is currently underway and not yet finalized [4].
Strokes Gained data for Scheffler's first three rounds is unavailable. Specific Strokes Gained statistics for Scottie Scheffler's performance during the first three rounds of the 2026 PGA Championship have not yet been publicly aggregated or finalized in standard season-long statistical databases [4]. Consequently, without these precise metrics, the available information is insufficient to indicate his likelihood of achieving a Top 20 finish based on Strokes Gained analysis [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 12026 PGA Championshipen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2When is 2026 PGA Championship? Dates and TV details - USA Todayusatoday.com
  3. 3PGA Championship | Official Websitepgachampionship.com
  4. 4Scottie Scheffler 2026 Golf Tournaments Played - ESPNespn.com

7. How do Rory McIlroy's and Scottie Scheffler's final-round scoring averages in major championships compare over the last three seasons?

Rory McIlroy 2025 Major Final Round Average70.25 [1]
Scottie Scheffler 2025 Major Final Round Average69.5 [2][1]
2026 PGA Championship FavoriteScottie Scheffler (top-20 finish) [3][4][5]
Rory McIlroy posted a 70.25 final-round average in 2025 major championships. His scores for the 2025 major championships included a 73 at the Masters, a 72 at the PGA Championship, a 67 at the U.S. Open, and a 69 at The Open [1].
Scottie Scheffler's 2025 major final-round average was lower than McIlroy's. During the same 2025 major championship season, Scheffler recorded final-round scores of 69 at the Masters, 71 at the PGA Championship, 70 at the U.S. Open, and 68 at The Open. This resulted in an average final-round score of 69.5, which was lower than Rory McIlroy's average for that period [2][1].
Both Scheffler and McIlroy are top contenders for the 2026 PGA Championship. As of May 17, 2026, Scottie Scheffler is widely considered the favorite for a top-20 finish at the upcoming 2026 PGA Championship, according to prediction markets, with Rory McIlroy also identified as a top contender [3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Rory McIlroy Profile, Stats, Bio, Career - Foremajorsgolf.comforemajorsgolf.com
  2. 2Scottie Scheffler, PGA - 2025 Tournament Results - CBS Sportscbssports.com
  3. 32026 PGA Championship: Updated Predictive Market Oddsyoutube.com
  4. 42026 PGA Championship odds, predictions, field: Picks by model that's nailed 17 majors - CBS Sportscbssports.com
  5. 52026 pga championship ranking favorites contenders hopefulsespn.com

8. What live shot-tracking data is available for the 2026 PGA Championship, and what does it reveal about player consistency at Aronimink?

2026 PGA Championship LocationAronimink Golf Club, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania [1][2][3]
2026 PGA Championship DatesMay 14 –17, 2026 [1][2]
Shot-tracking Data AccessOfficial PGA Championship and PGA TOUR digital platforms, third-party sites (e.g., Data Golf) [4][5][6][7][8]
The 2026 PGA Championship will feature comprehensive live shot-tracking data. The championship is scheduled to take place at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, from May 14 to May 17, 2026 [1][2][3]. Live shot-tracking and scoring data for this event will be accessible via official PGA Championship and PGA TOUR digital platforms, as well as through third-party analytics sites such as Data Golf [4][5][6][7][8].
Aronimink's challenging design demands high consistency and accuracy from players. Aronimink Golf Club is recognized for its difficult par-4 holes, which incorporate varied elevation, slope, and side tilt, thereby requiring exceptional player consistency [3][9]. The course further tests player accuracy with high-speed greens, measured at approximately 13.5 on the Stimpmeter, and fairways of diverse widths [3][9]. These features combine to present a significant test of skill and precision for all competitors.
Specific insights into player consistency from this data are not yet available. While live shot-tracking and scoring data for the 2026 PGA Championship will be readily available during and after the event [1][2][4], current research indicates that this data does not yet offer specific predictions or insights into what it will ultimately reveal about player consistency at Aronimink once the championship has concluded [1][2].
Sources (9)
  1. 1PGA Championship | Official Websitepgachampionship.com
  2. 22026 PGA Championshipen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Nine things to know: Aronimink Golf Club, host of 2026 PGA Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  4. 4PGA Championship Live Blog | 2026 Live Blog | Data Golfdatagolf.com
  5. 5PGA Championship 2026 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  6. 6PGA Championship 2026 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  7. 72026 PGA Championship Leaderboard - Live Scores | PGA Championshippgachampionship.com
  8. 8PGA Championship 2026 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOUR - Overviewpgatour.com
  9. 9PGA Championship | Official Websitepgachampionship.com

9. Which players outside the current top 15, such as Sam Burns or Patrick Cantlay, have a demonstrated history of making significant final-round surges?

Brooks Koepka 2026 final-round score65 (Cognizant Classic) [1]
Sam Burns final-round scoring average68.63 (as of May 2026) [2]
Patrick Cantlay final-round scoring average69.86 (as of May 2026) [3]
Several players outside the current top 15 show a history of Sunday rallies. Tony Finau, for instance, has a historical tendency to overperform on Sundays when in contention relative to expectations [4]. Other golfers recognized for their ability to finish strong include Brooks Koepka, Erik van Rooyen, and Cameron Young.
Recent tournaments highlight impressive final-round surges by several players. Brooks Koepka demonstrated this by posting a final-round 65 at the 2026 Cognizant Classic, marking his best result since returning to the tour [1]. In 2021, Erik van Rooyen secured a Tour Championship berth with a crucial final-round 65 [5]. More recently, Cameron Young rallied to win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship, closing with a final-round 68 [6].
Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay have distinct final-round scoring profiles. As of May 2026, Sam Burns maintains a final-round scoring average of 68.63, placing him 15th among players [2]. In contrast, Patrick Cantlay's final-round average is 69.86, which ranks him 63rd [3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Brooks Koepka finishes with 65 on Sunday at Cognizant Classic, posts best result since return to TOUR - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  2. 2Sam Burns PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerpgatour.com
  3. 3Patrick Cantlay PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerpgatour.com
  4. 4These numbers suggest Tony Finau actually overperforms when in contention on Sundays | Golf News and Tour Information | Golf Digestgolfdigest.com
  5. 5The most unlikely qualifier for the Tour Championship explains how he made it happengolfdigest.com
  6. 6Cameron Young is clutch on Island Green, rallies to win THE PLAYERS Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Prediction markets for the 2026 PGA Championship, which is scheduled for May 14–17, 2026, at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania [1][2][3], have seen significant activity, with traders reacting to live tournament developments [4][5]. Key catalysts influencing these markets include player form, exemplified by players such as Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy [6][7][4], and familiarity with the Aronimink course [6].
Further factors that act as catalysts for these markets are weather conditions [6]. Additionally, tee time waves for the first two rounds are a critical data point for traders [6][4], often leading to sharp repricing around the 36-hole cut during the tournament [4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 14, 2026
  • Closes: June 14, 2026
Sources (7)
  1. 12026 PGA Championshippga.com
  2. 22026 PGA Championshipen.wikipedia.org
  3. 32026 PGA Championship | Ticket Types | PGA Championshippgachampionship.com
  4. 4PGA Championship Odds at Prediction Markets 2026: Favorites, Pick to Win & Preview for Aronimink Golf Clubsports.yahoo.com
  5. 52026 PGA Championship Winner: Polymarket Oddsactionnetwork.com
  6. 62026 PGA Championship Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Best Betsgamblingsite.com
  7. 72026 PGA Championship odds, predictions, field: Picks by model that's nailed 17 majors - CBS Sportscbssports.com

12. Related News

+81.0pp
Last updated: May 17, 2026, 12:25 UTC

PGA Market Reprices Top 20 Odds as Smalley Leads Crowded Field

Probabilities in the prediction market for a Top 20 finish at the 2026 PGA Championship saw a significant realignment on Saturday, May 16, 2026, as the tournament's third round established a clear, al...
+51.0pp
Last updated: May 17, 2026, 12:25 UTC

PGA Top 20 Market Reprices Sharply Around 36-Hole Cut

The prediction market for a Top 20 finish at the 2026 PGA Championship experienced a significant repricing on Friday, May 15, 2026, as traders reacted to live results from the second round of play at ...

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPGATOP20-PGC26-SYEL: NO (May 16, 2026)
  • KXPGATOP20-PGC26-BSNE: NO (May 16, 2026)
  • KXPGATOP20-PGC26-TIW: NO (May 16, 2026)
  • KXPGATOP20-PGC26-RYV: NO (May 16, 2026)
  • KXPGATOP20-PGC26-ANS: NO (May 16, 2026)