PGA Championship: Top 20 Finishers
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Scottie Scheffler is most likely to finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Rory McIlroy has varied Aronimink history, including an 8-under 62 in 2018.
- All-around player archetypes appear best suited for Aronimink's 2026 setup.
- Major 36-hole leaders typically achieve top-20 finishes despite inherent volatility.
- Challenging scoring conditions are expected due to warm weather and potential high winds.
- Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth excel in major top-20 finishes since 2023.
- Course unfamiliarity and player form are key catalysts influencing prediction markets.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler | 33.0% | 20.6% | He has a history of contending in major golf championships. |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 18.0% | 7.8% | He is a less experienced player in this elite golf field. |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 32.0% | 19.7% | He is an emerging talent competing against a strong field. |
| Jordan Spieth | 36.0% | 23.3% | He has a proven record of success in major championships. |
| Patrick Reed | 44.0% | 31.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
McNealy and Smalley lead as the PGA Championship progresses past the cut. The 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club is currently underway as of May 16, 2026, with Maverick McNealy and Alex Smalley holding a shared lead after the first two rounds [^][^]. Following the 36-hole cut, players finishing worse than 4-over par were eliminated from the tournament. Notably, Bryson DeChambeau missed the cut after completing his rounds at 7-over par [^][^].
Defending champion Scheffler contends amid course criticism; favorites in play. Scottie Scheffler, the defending champion, is still in contention despite expressing public criticism of the course's "absurd" pin positions [^][^]. Before the tournament began, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Cameron Young were widely considered pre-tournament favorites [^][^]. Additionally, golf experts highlighted Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Aberg as strong contenders for the championship [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has shown a distinct upward trend, starting at a 53.0% YES probability and climbing to its current price of 76.0%. The price has fluctuated within a wide range, from a low of 23.0% to its present high. The market's volatility appears heavily influenced by the changing fortunes of individual high-profile golfers. For example, a significant price drop for Ludvig Åberg was noted on May 14, which seems linked to his on-course performance that ultimately resulted in him missing the tournament cut. Earlier, pre-tournament adjustments were also evident, such as a price drop on May 10 that was likely connected to a re-evaluation of Patrick Cantlay's health. Conversely, a sharp spike was detected on May 15; however, the provided context suggests this specific metric for Ludvig Åberg may be a misinterpretation, even as he was reported to be in a strong position in the tournament at that time.
Trading volume has been concentrated around key tournament dates, indicating that market participants are most active when new performance data becomes available. The total volume of 52,444 contracts, with a noticeable increase in activity on May 16 as the tournament progressed past the cut, suggests growing conviction. The 50.0% to 53.0% range acted as an early baseline before the tournament began, with the low 40s serving as a temporary support level. The current price of 76.0% represents a new peak and potential resistance level. Overall, the chart's upward trajectory, especially since the start of the tournament, indicates that market sentiment has grown increasingly confident about the likely composition of the top 20 finishers as tournament leaders have emerged and other contenders have been eliminated.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📈 May 15, 2026: 44.0pp spike
Price increased from 29.0% to 73.0%
What happened: The provided research does not support the claim of a 44.0 percentage point spike in Ludvig Åberg's price on May 15, 2026; this metric appears to be a misinterpretation or non-existent in the context of the tournament [^]. As of May 16, 2026, Åberg was tied for ninth place in the PGA Championship after shooting a 66 in the second round, which concluded on May 15, 2026 [^][^][^]. Given the lack of evidence for the asserted price movement, no primary driver, including social media activity, can be identified. Therefore, social media's role in this unevidenced price movement is irrelevant.
📉 May 14, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 50.0% to 33.0%
What happened:
The primary driver for a significant price drop in the "Ludvig Åberg - Top 20 Finishers" market at the 2026 PGA Championship on May 14, 2026, would be his on-course performance and official tournament results [^][^]. Ludvig Åberg ultimately missed the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship [^][^]. A poor round on May 14, making a top 20 finish significantly less likely, would trigger such a price drop via traditional sports news outlets reporting the live scores [^][^].
While there are no specific social media posts identified as the primary catalyst, platforms like X (Twitter) would have rapidly amplified these performance updates and traditional news reports, coinciding with or lagging the initial market movement. The specific 17.0 percentage point drop mentioned likely stems from confusion with his final-round collapse at the 2026 Players Championship, where he dropped significantly from contention [^][^][^]. Therefore, social media would have acted primarily as a contributing accelerant to news initially driven by tournament results.
📈 May 08, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 40.0% to 50.0%
What happened: The 10.0 percentage point spike on May 8, 2026, for Ludvig Åberg's PGA Championship Top 20 market occurred before the tournament began on May 14, 2026 [^]. Although this movement may appear related to his concurrent participation in the Truist Championship (May 7–10, 2026) [^], the provided sources offer no information regarding social media activity—including specific posts, claims, or influential figures—that would explain this price rise. No traditional news or market structure factors are identified either. Therefore, the primary driver for this price movement cannot be determined from the available data, and social media activity is irrelevant based on the provided information.
Outcome: Sam Burns
📉 May 11, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 40.0% to 30.0%
What happened: Based on the provided web research, there is no evidence of a 10 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for Sam Burns to finish in the Top 20 at the PGA Championship on May 11, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Consequently, no specific social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factor could be identified as a primary driver for such a movement [^][^][^][^]. While Sam Burns was noted as a 'boom-or-bust' option prior to the tournament, this general assessment does not correlate with the specific price drop described [^]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for the unconfirmed movement.
Outcome: Patrick Cantlay
📉 May 10, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 45.0% to 34.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 11.0 percentage point drop on May 10, 2026, was likely a re-evaluation of Patrick Cantlay's health following his withdrawal from the Cadillac Championship (April 30–May 3, 2026) due to illness [^]. Although he achieved a tied for 10th finish at the Truist Championship, which concluded around May 10, 2026, and had four consecutive top-15 finishes [^], concerns about his stamina for the upcoming PGA Championship, commencing May 14, 2026, appear to have intensified [^][^]. No evidence from the provided sources indicates social media activity as a primary driver or contributing factor for this specific price movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Alex Smalley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, and to No if he does not or withdraws after teeing off. If he forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opened on May 5, 2026, and will close after the outcome or by May 31, 2026, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick McNealy | $0.79 | $0.26 | 79% |
| Min Woo Lee | $0.75 | $0.27 | 75% |
| Alex Smalley | $0.74 | $0.29 | 73% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $0.73 | $0.28 | 73% |
| Max Greyserman | $0.57 | $0.44 | 57% |
| David Puig | $0.57 | $0.45 | 55% |
| Stephan Jaeger | $0.55 | $0.52 | 48% |
| Patrick Reed | $0.44 | $0.60 | 44% |
| Aaron Rai | $0.40 | $0.62 | 40% |
| Andrew Novak | $0.38 | $0.65 | 39% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.38 | $0.67 | 36% |
| Rickie Fowler | $0.33 | $0.70 | 33% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $0.36 | $0.68 | 32% |
| Corey Conners | $0.29 | $0.76 | 29% |
| Daniel Hillier | $0.25 | $0.76 | 26% |
| Rico Hoey | $0.25 | $0.77 | 25% |
| Hao-Tong Li | $0.24 | $0.80 | 24% |
| Andrew Putnam | $0.24 | $0.79 | 23% |
| Sahith Theegala | $0.25 | $0.79 | 22% |
| Nick Taylor | $0.22 | $0.85 | 20% |
| Bud Cauley | $0.22 | $0.82 | 19% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | $0.21 | $0.87 | 18% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | $0.17 | $0.88 | 17% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $0.17 | $0.86 | 16% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.18 | $0.86 | 16% |
| Keith Mitchell | $0.18 | $0.88 | 15% |
| Matti Schmid | $0.16 | $0.89 | 15% |
| Dustin Johnson | $0.13 | $0.90 | 13% |
| Matt Wallace | $0.15 | $0.88 | 11% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | $0.05 | $0.98 | 11% |
| John Keefer | $0.06 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Mikael Lindberg | $0.13 | $0.90 | 9% |
| Casey Jarvis | $0.12 | $0.91 | 8% |
| Chandler Blanchet | $0.13 | $0.94 | 8% |
| Michael Kim | $0.11 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Ben Kern | $0.07 | $0.98 | 7% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $0.08 | $0.97 | 7% |
| Daniel Berger | $0.08 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Elvis Smylie | $0.05 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Alex Noren | $0.10 | $0.95 | 6% |
| John Parry | $0.05 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Tom Hoge | $0.08 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Chris Kirk | $0.06 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Daniel Brown | $0.14 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Luke Donald | $0.04 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Kazuki Higa | $0.07 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.91 | $0.10 | 91% |
| Cameron Young | $0.82 | $0.23 | 83% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.75 | $0.29 | 75% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.75 | $0.26 | 75% |
| Jon Rahm | $0.70 | $0.31 | 69% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.66 | $0.36 | 67% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $0.63 | $0.40 | 63% |
| Harris English | $0.58 | $0.43 | 62% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.62 | $0.39 | 62% |
| Rory McIlroy | $0.57 | $0.45 | 57% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.52 | $0.49 | 52% |
| Xander Schauffele | $0.51 | $0.50 | 52% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | $0.50 | $0.51 | 50% |
| Jason Day | $0.47 | $0.55 | 49% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.36 | $0.66 | 36% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $0.36 | $0.68 | 36% |
| Brooks Koepka | $0.35 | $0.66 | 35% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.29 | $0.74 | 28% |
| Cameron Smith | $0.24 | $0.81 | 27% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.30 | $0.75 | 26% |
| Sam Burns | $0.28 | $0.76 | 26% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.24 | $0.80 | 24% |
| Joaquin Niemann | $0.25 | $0.79 | 22% |
| Justin Rose | $0.16 | $0.88 | 15% |
| Denny McCarthy | $0.14 | $0.89 | 12% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | $0.13 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.12 | $0.93 | 11% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.10 | $0.96 | 10% |
| Brian Harman | $0.10 | $0.95 | 9% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.04 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Martin Kaymer | $0.07 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Sami Valimaki | $0.08 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Taylor Pendrith | $0.09 | $0.95 | 5% |
| William Mouw | $0.04 | $0.98 | 5% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $0.03 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Padraig Harrington | $0.04 | $0.99 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Traders primarily express optimism for various players to achieve a top 20 finish in the PGA Championship, with many posts simply indicating "Yes" for names like Brooks Koepka, Cameron Young, and Alex Fitzpatrick. The only specific argument for a "Yes" outcome posits that a highly-ranked player, currently outside the top 20, is expected to improve significantly in later rounds to secure a top finish. There are no explicit arguments presented for a "No" outcome.
5. How do Scottie Scheffler's and Rory McIlroy's historical performances on long, difficult courses similar to Aronimink compare?
| McIlroy Low Round at Aronimink | 8-under 62 (2018 BMW Championship) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Scheffler's 2026 PGA Criticism | Described Aronimink pin locations as 'absurd' [^][^][^] |
| Aronimink Course Characteristics | Donald Ross-designed, approx. 7,400 yards, par 70 [^][^][^] |
Rory McIlroy has a varied history at Aronimink Golf Club. His past performances include an impressive 8-under 62 in the opening round of the 2018 BMW Championship [^][^]. More recently, during the 2026 PGA Championship held at Aronimink, McIlroy initially struggled, posting a 4-over 74 in the opening round [^]. He attributed this difficulty to poor driving accuracy and the course's stringent penalties for missing fairways. However, McIlroy showed resilience, rebounding with a 67 in the second round to remain in contention [^][^].
Scottie Scheffler found Aronimink's 2026 PGA setup exceptionally challenging. Scheffler, who also has historical experience at Aronimink [^], publicly criticized the course setup during the 2026 PGA Championship. He specifically labeled the pin locations as 'absurd' and among the toughest he had ever encountered, citing extreme slopes and difficult wind conditions [^][^][^]. Aronimink Golf Club is recognized as a demanding Donald Ross-designed course. It spans approximately 7,400 yards with a par of 70, characterized by complex green complexes and a strong emphasis on precise tee-to-green play [^][^][^].
6. What does performance data from the first two rounds indicate about the player archetypes best suited for Aronimink's 2026 setup?
| Players Under Par | 22 after two rounds [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Three-Putts in a Round | 127 [^][^][^] |
| Ideal Player Archetype | Complete, all-around player [^][^][^] |
Success at Aronimink requires diverse skills and strategic precision. The ideal player demonstrates excellence in tee-to-green performance, elite spin control for wedge approaches, and the patience necessary for risk management [^][^][^]. Aggressive play frequently led to significant penalties, emphasizing the importance of strategic decision-making [^][^][^]. While elite ball-striking is foundational, the course's sloped, elevated greens place a significant premium on putting and short-game precision, rather than solely rewarding long-game power or approach-shot dominance [^][^][^]. This challenging scoring environment, marked by severe green complexes, resulted in 127 three-putts in a single round [^][^][^].
7. What is the historical precedent for 36-hole leaders like Maverick McNealy and Alex Smalley converting their position into a top-20 finish at a major?
| 36-hole leaders' probability | High probability of top 20 finish in major championships (despite volatility) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Maverick McNealy's major record | Multiple top-25 finishes in majors [^] |
| Alex Smalley's major experience | Experience competing in major fields [^][^][^] |
Major championship 36-hole leaders typically achieve a top-20 finish, despite the sport's inherent volatility and intense pressure [^] [^] [^] [^] . Historical precedent, including scenarios like Maverick McNealy and Alex Smalley's lead in the 2026 PGA Championship, demonstrates this consistent trend. Although specific conversion rates for 36-hole leaders into top-20 finishes are not universally standardized, the history of major championships consistently indicates that players who establish significant leads after 36 holes frequently secure a spot within the top 20 [^][^][^].
Both McNealy and Smalley possess relevant major championship experience, supporting their potential for a strong tournament conclusion. McNealy has recorded multiple top-25 finishes in major events [^], while Smalley has prior experience competing within major fields [^][^][^]. This established capacity to perform in major championships helps inform expectations for their performance in high-pressure situations.
8. How might the projected weekend weather and pin positions at Aronimink impact scoring conditions for the final two rounds?
| Saturday High Temperature | 79°F (May 16) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Sunday High Temperature | 87°F (May 17) [^][^][^] |
| Greens Condition | Firm and fast [^][^] |
The final two rounds at Aronimink will present challenging scoring conditions. The projected warm and sunny weather for May 16-17, with highs of 79°F on Saturday and 87°F on Sunday, is a primary factor [^][^][^]. Accompanied by light winds and a minimal chance of rain, these conditions, combined with recent dry spells, are expected to result in firm and fast greens [^][^].
Aronimink's greens are designed to provide significant defense. The Donald Ross-designed greens are already known for being large, sloped, and challenging, contributing to a high number of three-putts due to their tilted surfaces and speed [^][^][^]. The firm and fast playing conditions will intensify this difficulty, making it harder for players to hold approach shots effectively on the sloped surfaces [^][^]. Furthermore, for the concluding rounds, pin locations are anticipated to be positioned in the corners of these expansive, terraced greens [^][^][^]. This setup will demand increased precision on approach shots, adding to a course that already heavily emphasizes accuracy from the tee [^][^][^].
9. Which players making the cut, besides pre-tournament favorites, have the strongest records of finishing in the top 20 in major championships since 2023?
| Sam Burns Top-10 Finishes | 3 in past 7 major starts (T7 at 2026 Masters) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth Top-20 Finishes | 5 in last 9 major starts (none were top-10) [^] |
| Non-Favorite Players with Strong Top-20 Major Records since 2023 | Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth [^][^][^][^] |
Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth excel in major championship top-20 finishes. Besides pre-tournament favorites such as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele, these two players have demonstrated strong records of finishing in the top 20 in major championships since 2023 [^][^][^][^]. The available information does not specify other non-favorite players with comparable top-20 major championship records during this timeframe.
Jordan Spieth frequently achieves top-20 major finishes despite inconsistency. Despite an inconsistent track record, he has secured five top-20 finishes in his last nine major starts leading into the 2026 PGA Championship. However, none of these five finishes were top-10s [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 14, 2026
- Closes: June 14, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Key catalysts that could influence prediction markets for the 2026 PGA Championship include player form, such as recent Masters performance, and course unfamiliarity, given that Aronimink Golf Club has not hosted since 1962 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Weather conditions are also cited as a significant factor [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish and bearish sentiment in these markets is further driven by player-specific metrics [^] [^] .
- Trigger: These include off-the-tee performance, putting consistency, and historical performance in major championships [^] [^] .
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP20-PGC26-SYEL: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-PGC26-BSNE: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-PGC26-TIW: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-PGC26-RYV: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-PGC26-ANS: NO (May 16, 2026)
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