PGA Championship: Top 20 Finishers
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Alex Smalley to be a Top 20 Finisher in the 2026 PGA Championship, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Aronimink's design and final-round conditions may challenge leaders.
- Scottie Scheffler's 'Strokes Gained' statistics indicate a likely Top 20 finish.
- Rory McIlroy posted a 70.25 final-round average in 2025 major championships.
- Live shot-tracking data will reveal player consistency at Aronimink Golf Club.
- Some players demonstrate a history of significant final-round surges.
- Prediction markets react to live 2026 PGA Championship tournament developments.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 77.0% | 71.4% | Scottie Scheffler is the current world No. 1 with consistent high finishes. |
| Cameron Young | 48.0% | 35.7% | Cameron Young is a rising star known for strong finishes in major tournaments. |
| Brooks Koepka | 50.0% | 37.9% | Brooks Koepka is a multiple PGA Championship winner with elite major form. |
| Rory McIlroy | 86.0% | 85.0% | Rory McIlroy is a top-ranked golfer with recent strong performances. |
| Justin Rose | 53.0% | 44.3% | Justin Rose is an experienced major champion with a consistent performance record. |
Current Context
Aaron Rai currently leads the field after the third round. As of the conclusion of the third round, Aaron Rai held the lead, with Rory McIlroy and Matti Schmid also identified as being in contention [^][^]. Early in the tournament, after the first round, Scottie Scheffler, Martin Kaymer, and Aldrich Potgieter were among the leaders [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has exhibited a distinct upward trend, opening at a 53.0% probability and climbing to its current price of 89.0%. The price has fluctuated within a wide range of 23.0% to 95.0% throughout the trading period. Analysis of price action reveals several volatile movements corresponding with the 2026 PGA Championship timeline. Notably, there was a 17.0 percentage point drop on May 14, followed by a sharp 44.0 percentage point spike the next day. Another significant spike of 21.0 percentage points occurred on May 16. Earlier, pre-tournament trading saw a 10.0 percentage point spike on May 8 and a 9.0 point drop on May 10.
The price volatility appears directly linked to on-course performance and news from the championship. The 17.0 point drop on May 14 for a contract related to Ludvig Aberg was driven by his deteriorating performance, which ultimately led to him missing the cut. The subsequent 44.0 point spike for the same contract on May 15 contradicts this development, as a player missing the cut would typically see their probability of a top 20 finish fall to zero. In contrast, the 21.0 point spike on May 16, which pushed a contract for Patrick Cantlay to 93.0%, corresponds with his strong position during the third round of the tournament. The reasons for the pre-tournament price shifts on May 8 and May 10 are not detailed in the available information. Overall, the market sentiment, reflected in the price rising to 89.0%, suggests a high degree of confidence in a "YES" resolution as the tournament concludes.
With a total volume of 60,326 contracts traded, the market has seen significant participant activity, suggesting strong conviction behind price movements. The 50.0% level acted as an early pivot point for market sentiment before the tournament began. Following the start of play, the price chart shows a bottom established around the 30.0% level before its significant climb. The market has since encountered resistance near the 95.0% mark, which represents its all-time high. The chart indicates a market that is highly responsive to real-time events, with traders rapidly repricing probabilities based on player performance.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Patrick Cantlay
📉 May 16, 2026: 64.0pp drop
Price decreased from 69.0% to 5.0%
What happened: Research indicates no evidence of a "64.0 percentage point drop" or similar statistical collapse for Patrick Cantlay relating to his performance during the 2026 PGA Championship on May 16, 2026 [^][^]. On this date, Cantlay was listed at -3 during the third round of the championship, which was led by Alex Smalley at -6 [^][^]. Without substantiation of the described price movement tied to his performance in the tournament, identifying a primary driver, whether from social media or traditional news, is not possible [^][^]. Therefore, social media's role in a non-existent or unsubstantiated event cannot be determined.
📉 May 10, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 45.0% to 34.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not contain information detailing the cause of Patrick Cantlay's "Top 20 Finishers" prediction market price drop on May 10, 2026. This date is prior to the start of the 2026 PGA Championship, which was scheduled from May 14 to May 17, 2026 [^]. The available sources primarily focus on the tournament's schedule, eligibility, and subsequent in-progress results, with no specific news or social media activity related to Cantlay's status or performance on or around May 10, 2026. Therefore, social media's role in this particular price movement cannot be assessed with the given data.
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📈 May 15, 2026: 44.0pp spike
Price increased from 29.0% to 73.0%
What happened: A 44.0 percentage point price spike for Ludvig Aberg to finish in the Top 20 at the PGA Championship occurred on May 15, 2026. This movement contradicts the fact that Ludvig Åberg missed the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship [^], which would typically cause a market price to fall to zero for a "Top 20 Finishers" outcome. Without any data on specific social media activity, traditional news, or market structure events from that period, the primary driver for this anomalous price increase cannot be determined. Consequently, it is impossible to assess whether social media was a primary driver, a contributing accelerant, or irrelevant.
📉 May 14, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 50.0% to 33.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 17.0 percentage point drop in Ludvig Aberg's "Top 20 Finishers" market on May 14, 2026, was his deteriorating performance during the 2026 PGA Championship. Aberg ultimately missed the cut at the event, recording two-round scores of 70 and 75 for a total of +3, making a top-20 finish impossible [^]. This live competitive performance, reported by traditional sports media and reflected on tournament leaderboards, directly undermined market confidence in his ability to place [^]. While social media likely discussed and amplified real-time updates of his play, no specific influential social media activity appeared to lead this price movement, indicating social media was a contributing accelerant rather than the primary driver.
Outcome: Sam Burns
📉 May 11, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 40.0% to 30.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not contain information detailing the cause of the 10.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Sam Burns's Top 20 finish at the PGA Championship on May 11, 2026. The 2026 PGA Championship itself took place from May 14–17, 2026, which is after the date of the market movement [^][^]. Without specific social media posts, news announcements, or market events on or around May 11, 2026, the primary driver of this price shift cannot be identified. Based solely on the available sources, social media activity is irrelevant as no related information was found.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, and to No if he does not or withdraws after teeing off. If Aberg forfeits, withdraws, or doesn't participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opened on April 13, 2026, and closes after the outcome occurs or by June 14, 2026, with payout projected 5 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | $0.91 | $0.10 | 90% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.90 | $0.11 | 89% |
| Rory McIlroy | $0.86 | $0.15 | 86% |
| Xander Schauffele | $0.83 | $0.18 | 83% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.77 | $0.24 | 77% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.64 | $0.37 | 64% |
| Joaquin Niemann | $0.61 | $0.41 | 60% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.59 | $0.43 | 57% |
| Justin Rose | $0.58 | $0.47 | 53% |
| Brooks Koepka | $0.50 | $0.52 | 50% |
| Cameron Young | $0.48 | $0.54 | 48% |
| Sam Burns | $0.49 | $0.52 | 48% |
| Cameron Smith | $0.45 | $0.58 | 45% |
| Harris English | $0.44 | $0.58 | 44% |
| Brian Harman | $0.36 | $0.65 | 36% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.35 | $0.68 | 35% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.35 | $0.66 | 35% |
| Martin Kaymer | $0.33 | $0.71 | 34% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | $0.23 | $0.80 | 21% |
| Taylor Pendrith | $0.15 | $0.87 | 15% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.05 | $0.96 | 11% |
| Padraig Harrington | $0.11 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.08 | $0.93 | 9% |
| Denny McCarthy | $0.08 | $0.96 | 8% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $0.08 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.01 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Sami Valimaki | $0.02 | $1.00 | 5% |
| William Mouw | $0.02 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $0.03 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.05 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.02 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Jason Day | $0.04 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.04 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
As of May 17, 2026, Alex Smalley leads the 2026 PGA Championship entering the final round, with market participants identifying Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy as top contenders for high finishes despite Scheffler's difficult third round [^]. Prior to the event, "Top 20 Finishers" prediction markets featured players like Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Bryson DeChambeau, and Patrick Cantlay, with traders noting Scottie Scheffler's tendency for slow starts [^].
5. How might the final-round pin placements and weather conditions at Aronimink Golf Club affect leaders like Aaron Rai and Rory McIlroy?
| Event Date and Location | May 14 |
|---|---|
| Course Designer | Donald Ross [^][^] |
| Pin Placement Difficulty | Described as "toughest encountered on Tour" by Scottie Scheffler [^][^][^] |
Aronimink Golf Club's design presents significant challenges for PGA Championship competitors. The 2026 PGA Championship is scheduled to take place at Aronimink Golf Club from May 14-17, 2026 [^][^]. This course, designed by Donald Ross, is particularly recognized for its demanding green complexes, which are notably sloped and necessitate precise shot-making from golfers [^][^].
Difficult pin placements at Aronimink demand precise strategies from top players. Reports from the 2026 tournament indicate exceptionally difficult pin placements, with player Scottie Scheffler describing them as the toughest he has encountered on Tour [^][^][^]. Aaron Rai, known for his precision, is competing, and his accuracy may prove advantageous on the course's challenging demands [^][^][^][^]. Rory McIlroy has adopted a "little-target approach" to manage the challenging conditions at Aronimink, a strategy that has helped him remain in contention [^].
6. What do Scottie Scheffler's 'Strokes Gained' statistics from the first three rounds indicate about his likelihood of a Top 20 finish?
| Event | 2026 PGA Championship (May 14–17, 2026, Aronimink Golf Club) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Event Status | In progress; third round completed as of May 17, 2026 [^][^] |
| Strokes Gained Statistics | Not publicly aggregated or finalized for first three rounds [^] |
Scottie Scheffler is competing in the ongoing 2026 PGA Championship. The 2026 PGA Championship is taking place from May 14–17, 2026, at Aronimink Golf Club [^][^]. As of May 17, 2026, the third round of the tournament has concluded, and Scottie Scheffler has participated in the event [^]. His overall performance in the championship is currently underway and not yet finalized [^].
Strokes Gained data for Scheffler's first three rounds is unavailable. Specific Strokes Gained statistics for Scottie Scheffler's performance during the first three rounds of the 2026 PGA Championship have not yet been publicly aggregated or finalized in standard season-long statistical databases [^]. Consequently, without these precise metrics, the available information is insufficient to indicate his likelihood of achieving a Top 20 finish based on Strokes Gained analysis [^].
7. How do Rory McIlroy's and Scottie Scheffler's final-round scoring averages in major championships compare over the last three seasons?
| Rory McIlroy 2025 Major Final Round Average | 70.25 [^] |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler 2025 Major Final Round Average | 69.5 [^][^] |
| 2026 PGA Championship Favorite | Scottie Scheffler (top-20 finish) [^][^][^] |
Rory McIlroy posted a 70.25 final-round average in 2025 major championships. His scores for the 2025 major championships included a 73 at the Masters, a 72 at the PGA Championship, a 67 at the U.S. Open, and a 69 at The Open [^].
Scottie Scheffler's 2025 major final-round average was lower than McIlroy's. During the same 2025 major championship season, Scheffler recorded final-round scores of 69 at the Masters, 71 at the PGA Championship, 70 at the U.S. Open, and 68 at The Open. This resulted in an average final-round score of 69.5, which was lower than Rory McIlroy's average for that period [^][^].
Both Scheffler and McIlroy are top contenders for the 2026 PGA Championship. As of May 17, 2026, Scottie Scheffler is widely considered the favorite for a top-20 finish at the upcoming 2026 PGA Championship, according to prediction markets, with Rory McIlroy also identified as a top contender [^][^][^].
8. What live shot-tracking data is available for the 2026 PGA Championship, and what does it reveal about player consistency at Aronimink?
| 2026 PGA Championship Location | Aronimink Golf Club, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 PGA Championship Dates | May 14 –17, 2026 [^][^] |
| Shot-tracking Data Access | Official PGA Championship and PGA TOUR digital platforms, third-party sites (e.g., Data Golf) [^][^][^][^][^] |
The 2026 PGA Championship will feature comprehensive live shot-tracking data. The championship is scheduled to take place at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, from May 14 to May 17, 2026 [^][^][^]. Live shot-tracking and scoring data for this event will be accessible via official PGA Championship and PGA TOUR digital platforms, as well as through third-party analytics sites such as Data Golf [^][^][^][^][^].
Aronimink's challenging design demands high consistency and accuracy from players. Aronimink Golf Club is recognized for its difficult par-4 holes, which incorporate varied elevation, slope, and side tilt, thereby requiring exceptional player consistency [^][^]. The course further tests player accuracy with high-speed greens, measured at approximately 13.5 on the Stimpmeter, and fairways of diverse widths [^][^]. These features combine to present a significant test of skill and precision for all competitors.
Specific insights into player consistency from this data are not yet available. While live shot-tracking and scoring data for the 2026 PGA Championship will be readily available during and after the event [^][^][^], current research indicates that this data does not yet offer specific predictions or insights into what it will ultimately reveal about player consistency at Aronimink once the championship has concluded [^][^].
9. Which players outside the current top 15, such as Sam Burns or Patrick Cantlay, have a demonstrated history of making significant final-round surges?
| Brooks Koepka 2026 final-round score | 65 (Cognizant Classic) [^] |
|---|---|
| Sam Burns final-round scoring average | 68.63 (as of May 2026) [^] |
| Patrick Cantlay final-round scoring average | 69.86 (as of May 2026) [^] |
Several players outside the current top 15 show a history of Sunday rallies. Tony Finau, for instance, has a historical tendency to overperform on Sundays when in contention relative to expectations [^]. Other golfers recognized for their ability to finish strong include Brooks Koepka, Erik van Rooyen, and Cameron Young.
Recent tournaments highlight impressive final-round surges by several players. Brooks Koepka demonstrated this by posting a final-round 65 at the 2026 Cognizant Classic, marking his best result since returning to the tour [^]. In 2021, Erik van Rooyen secured a Tour Championship berth with a crucial final-round 65 [^]. More recently, Cameron Young rallied to win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship, closing with a final-round 68 [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Prediction markets for the 2026 PGA Championship, which is scheduled for May 14–17, 2026, at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania [^] [^] [^] , have seen significant activity, with traders reacting to live tournament developments [^] [^] . Key catalysts influencing these markets include player form, exemplified by players such as Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy [^][^][^], and familiarity with the Aronimink course [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 14, 2026
- Closes: June 14, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Prediction markets for the 2026 PGA Championship, which is scheduled for May 14–17, 2026, at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania [^] [^] [^] , have seen significant activity, with traders reacting to live tournament developments [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key catalysts influencing these markets include player form, exemplified by players such as Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy [^] [^] [^] , and familiarity with the Aronimink course [^] .
- Trigger: Further factors that act as catalysts for these markets are weather conditions [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, tee time waves for the first two rounds are a critical data point for traders [^] [^] , often leading to sharp repricing around the 36-hole cut during the tournament [^] .
13. Related News
Last updated: May 17, 2026, 12:25 UTC
PGA Market Reprices Top 20 Odds as Smalley Leads Crowded Field
Probabilities in the prediction market for a Top 20 finish at the 2026 PGA Championship saw a significant realignment on Saturday, May 16, 2026, as the tournament's third round established a clear, al...
Last updated: May 17, 2026, 12:25 UTC
PGA Top 20 Market Reprices Sharply Around 36-Hole Cut
The prediction market for a Top 20 finish at the 2026 PGA Championship experienced a significant repricing on Friday, May 15, 2026, as traders reacted to live results from the second round of play at ...
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP20-PGC26-SYEL: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-PGC26-BSNE: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-PGC26-TIW: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-PGC26-RYV: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-PGC26-ANS: NO (May 16, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
