PGA Championship: Top 10 Finishers
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Rich Beem finishing in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship, with the model at 0.0% compared to the market's 79.0%.
1. Executive Verdict
- Scheffler and McIlroy's historical performance on similar demanding courses is noted.
- Strong opening rounds historically indicate a top 10 PGA Championship finish.
- Cameron Young's 2026 season stats suggest potential for a top 10 spot.
- Elite putting performance strongly correlates with success at Aronimink Golf Club.
- A warming and drying weather trend may impact Aronimink conditions May 14-17.
- Dynamic shifts in sentiment significantly influence market probabilities.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 46.0% | 43.0% | Scottie Scheffler consistently demonstrates strong performance in major championships and high-profile events. |
| Cameron Young | 22.0% | 11.7% | Cameron Young frequently contends in major championships and shows potential for strong finishes. |
| Rory McIlroy | 67.0% | 67.9% | Rory McIlroy possesses a proven track record in major championships and is a consistent threat. |
| Brooks Koepka | 23.0% | 12.4% | Brooks Koepka is a multiple PGA Championship winner and consistently performs well in major events. |
| Xander Schauffele | 58.0% | 47.1% | Xander Schauffele reliably contends for top finishes in major championships and big tournaments. |
Current Context
The 2026 PGA Championship concluded its final stages on May 17. The event was held from May 14–17, 2026, at Aronimink Golf Club located in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania [^][^]. As of May 17, the tournament's final day, Scottie Scheffler, Martin Kaymer, and Aldrich Potgieter were among the early leaders [^].
Pre-tournament predictions highlighted several key contenders and market favorites. Before the championship commenced, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, and Jon Rahm were widely recognized as pre-tournament favorites [^][^][^]. Additionally, prediction markets, specifically Polymarket, showed considerable interest in players such as Jake Knapp and Scottie Scheffler [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market exhibited a clear upward trend, with the probability of a top-10 finish rising from a starting price of 37.0% to a final price of 72.0%. The contract traded within a wide range of 13.0% to 77.0% over its lifetime, indicating significant price discovery. The tournament period itself was characterized by high volatility in related markets. For instance, context from May 15 suggests the market for Ludvig Åberg saw a 38.0 percentage point price spike driven by optimistic media coverage during the second round, even though he did not ultimately make the cut. Conversely, on May 16, Patrick Cantlay's chances for a top-10 finish reportedly dropped significantly based on his performance. While these specific events relate to other competitors, they illustrate the turbulent, performance-driven nature of trading during the live tournament, a period during which this contract's price continued its climb.
Trading volume patterns suggest a surge of market conviction as the tournament began. A massive increase in volume was observed on May 14, the first day of the PGA Championship, with a total of over 66,000 contracts traded throughout the market's duration. The price action indicates an early support level in the low-30% range before rallying significantly. The market sentiment for this contract grew increasingly positive as the tournament progressed. The steady climb from a modest 37.0% probability to a strong 72.0% by the event's conclusion suggests that the subject's performance consistently met or exceeded market expectations, reinforcing trader confidence in a top-10 finish.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Patrick Cantlay
📉 May 16, 2026: 24.0pp drop
Price decreased from 28.0% to 4.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 24.0 percentage point drop in Patrick Cantlay's "Top 10 Finishers" prediction market on May 16, 2026, was his actual performance in the PGA Championship. As of the conclusion of the third round on that date, Cantlay was not among the top 10 players on the leaderboard [^]. This directly reduced the probability of him achieving a top 10 finish, causing the market price to decline. Social media was not a primary driver, as a new PGA Tour social media policy was a broader industry development and not a specific catalyst for this particular market movement [^].
📈 May 10, 2026: 23.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 25.0%
What happened: The primary driver of Patrick Cantlay's prediction market price spike on May 10, 2026, was his recent strong performance. On that date, Cantlay concluded the Truist Championship with a tied for 10th finish, demonstrating significant form immediately prior to the 2026 PGA Championship [^]. This recent top-10 performance likely increased participant confidence in his ability to secure another top-10 finish in the upcoming major [^]. There is no evidence of a specific social media spike or viral narrative driving this price movement, indicating social media was mostly noise or irrelevant in this instance [^].
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📈 May 15, 2026: 38.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 53.0%
What happened: The 38.0 percentage point price spike for Ludvig Åberg on May 15, 2026, appears primarily driven by an optimistic market sentiment that coincided with media coverage during his second round of the PGA Championship [^]. Despite Åberg ultimately missing the cut [^], public discussion of him as a betting favorite continued even on May 16 [^], indicating a strong, potentially irrational, market belief in his prospects. This suggests a disconnect between market action and his actual performance, fueled by general media attention rather than specific social media posts from key figures. Social media was not identified as a primary driver or significant accelerant based on the available information.
📉 May 14, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 32.0% to 17.0%
What happened: The available web research indicates that as of May 17, 2026, Ludvig Aberg was competing in the 2026 PGA Championship, having recorded an opening round of 72 followed by a 4-under 66 [^]. This information describes positive performance in the tournament after the reported prediction market price drop, and would logically suggest an increase, not a decrease, in his probability of a Top 10 finish [^]. With no provided data on social media activity, traditional news, or other market events occurring on or before the date of the market movement, the primary driver for the 15.0 percentage point drop cannot be identified from the available sources. Therefore, social media activity is irrelevant to explaining this specific price movement based on the provided information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, and to No if he does not or withdraws after teeing off. The market opened on April 13, 2026, and will close after the outcome occurs or by June 14, 2026, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing. If Ludvig Aberg forfeits, withdraws, or doesn't participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | $0.74 | $0.29 | 74% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.71 | $0.30 | 70% |
| Rory McIlroy | $0.66 | $0.36 | 67% |
| Xander Schauffele | $0.61 | $0.45 | 58% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.50 | $0.54 | 46% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.35 | $0.68 | 36% |
| Justin Rose | $0.35 | $0.71 | 35% |
| Joaquin Niemann | $0.33 | $0.71 | 32% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.28 | $0.74 | 30% |
| Brooks Koepka | $0.24 | $0.79 | 23% |
| Sam Burns | $0.24 | $0.82 | 23% |
| Cameron Smith | $0.22 | $0.81 | 22% |
| Cameron Young | $0.22 | $0.79 | 22% |
| Brian Harman | $0.14 | $0.90 | 14% |
| Harris English | $0.19 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.13 | $0.91 | 13% |
| Martin Kaymer | $0.14 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.13 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Denny McCarthy | $0.01 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | $0.08 | $0.96 | 8% |
| Taylor Pendrith | $0.04 | $0.98 | 5% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.01 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Padraig Harrington | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jason Day | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Sami Valimaki | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| William Mouw | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Leading up to the 2026 PGA Championship, Scottie Scheffler was considered the clear favorite by prediction markets and betting platforms, with Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young also receiving significant attention [^]. As of May 17, 2026, the championship is underway with Scheffler, Martin Kaymer, and Aldrich Potgieter among the early leaders, while broader discourse focuses on Scheffler's strong performance, Young's potential for a major breakthrough, and the challenging conditions of the Aronimink course [^].
5. How do pre-tournament favorites Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy compare in their historical performance on courses with similar characteristics to Aronimink Golf Club?
| Rory McIlroy's Aronimink Record | Course-record 62 in 2018 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Aronimink Bunkers | Over 170 [^][^][^] |
| Scottie Scheffler's Aronimink Challenge | Specific green complexes [^][^] |
Aronimink Golf Club is a demanding, classic Donald Ross parkland course. This golden-age design features a hilly, tree-lined terrain and over 170 bunkers [^][^][^]. The course is notable for its firm, fast, and complex greens, which include bold spines and ridges, contributing to the specific challenges players face [^][^][^].
Rory McIlroy demonstrates historical success on courses mirroring Aronimink's characteristics. He has a strong record at Aronimink Golf Club, notably achieving a course-record round of 62 in 2018 [^][^]. McIlroy consistently performs well on long, demanding parkland courses, a style that aligns with Aronimink's design. His sustained success at Quail Hollow, a course sharing similar characteristics such as length, firm greens, and strategic bunkering, further underscores his suitability for these types of challenges [^][^].
Conversely, Scottie Scheffler faces specific challenges despite strong performance on demanding courses. While Scheffler performs well on similar challenging courses like Bay Hill, which also features length, firm greens, and strategic bunkering, he has voiced particular difficulties regarding Aronimink’s green complexes [^][^]. Scheffler specifically identified problems with various hole locations on these greens during the lead-up to the 2026 PGA Championship [^].
6. What specific performance benchmarks in the opening rounds (May 14-15) have historically indicated a golfer is on track for a top 10 finish at the PGA Championship?
| First-round leaders in Top 10 | 4 of last 5 (PGA Championship) [^] |
|---|---|
| Winners' 1st-round deficit | No more than 6 strokes back of leader (past 5 PGA Championships) [^] |
| Most critical PGA Tour stat | Strokes Gained: Approach [^] |
Historically, strong opening rounds are a significant indicator of success at the PGA Championship. Four of the last five first-round leaders have gone on to finish in the top 10, while opening scores in the 60s consistently suggest a potential top finish. Additionally, the past five winners of the PGA Championship were no more than six strokes behind the first-round leader [^].
For overall success on the PGA Tour, Strokes Gained: Approach is considered the most crucial statistical indicator. This metric is followed by Strokes Gained: Around the Green and driving distance as key performance factors [^].
7. What do the 2026 season statistics for players like Wyndham Clark and Cameron Young suggest about their potential to outperform expectations and secure a top 10 spot?
| Cameron Young 2026 Season Win | Victory at The Players Championship [^] |
|---|---|
| Cameron Young Other Top Finishes | Multiple top-3 finishes (Masters, Arnold Palmer Invitational) [^][^][^] |
| Wyndham Clark 2026 Putting Rank | 142nd on TOUR [^][^] |
Cameron Young demonstrates strong potential to achieve a top 10 spot. His 2026 season has been marked by robust form, highlighted by a victory at The Players Championship [^][^][^]. Young also secured multiple top-3 finishes, notably at the Masters and the Arnold Palmer Invitational [^][^][^]. These consistent high-level performances prior to the 2026 PGA Championship position him well for a high placement [^][^][^].
Wyndham Clark's 2026 season performance indicates limited top 10 potential. In contrast to Young, Clark's 2026 season has been inconsistent, with no wins and only limited top-20 finishes across 12 events [^][^][^]. A significant factor contributing to his struggles is his putting, where he ranks 142nd on TOUR [^][^]. These statistics do not suggest the consistent performance typically required to outperform expectations for a top 10 finish [^][^].
8. What historical player performance data is available from past major tournaments hosted at Aronimink Golf Club that could identify player archetypes likely to succeed in 2026?
| Success correlation at Aronimink | Elite putting performance [^] |
|---|---|
| Most relevant event data | 2010/2011 AT&T National and 2018 BMW Championship [^] |
| Last PGA Championship at Aronimink | 1962 [^] |
Elite putting performance strongly correlates with success at Aronimink. Historical data from past major tournaments hosted at Aronimink Golf Club indicates a strong connection between success at this venue and elite putting performance, rather than approach play, for identifying player archetypes likely to succeed in the 2026 PGA Championship. The most relevant indicators for player archetype success at the 2026 PGA Championship are recent tour event data from the 2010/2011 AT&T National and the 2018 BMW Championship [^].
Top finishers consistently excelled in strokes gained/putting categories. Data analysis from these professional events at Aronimink shows that top finishers frequently ranked among the top 10 in strokes gained/putting. Conversely, winners and contenders often did not rank highly in strokes gained/approach, suggesting that a player archetype demonstrating strong putting performance is more likely to succeed at this venue [^].
A 2015 renovation makes recent tournament data most relevant. Aronimink's architecture underwent a significant 2015 renovation by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner, restoring the course to a design closer to the original 1928 Donald Ross conception, featuring over 200 bunkers [^]. The 2026 PGA Championship will be the first time the event is held at Aronimink since 1962, which makes the recent tour event data from 2010, 2011, and 2018 the most pertinent for identifying successful player archetypes [^].
9. How might the weather forecast for Newtown Square, PA, from May 14-17, 2026, impact course conditions at Aronimink and favor certain styles of play?
| Tournament Dates | May 14-17 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Course Type | Parkland course [^][^][^][^] |
| Course Length/Par | Approximately 7,400 yards, par-70 [^][^][^][^] |
The 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink anticipates a warming and drying trend. The weather forecast for May 14-17 indicates a shift from a potentially cool and damp start to increasingly warm, dry, and sunny conditions by the weekend. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid-80s by Sunday [^][^][^][^]. This progression toward warmer and drier weather will likely result in firmer fairways and greens across the course [^][^].
Aronimink's design elements will challenge players amid firmer conditions. The Donald Ross-designed parkland course spans approximately 7,400 yards with a par-70, featuring strategic bunkering, large, undulating, elevated bentgrass greens, and thick rough [^][^][^][^]. These firmer conditions will particularly favor players adept at controlling trajectory and spin, managing distance effectively in variable winds that could include gusts up to 20 mph, and navigating the complex green complexes under the rising temperatures [^][^].
Precision and thoughtful shot-making will be key to success. Under these anticipated course conditions, players who demonstrate excellence in precision, thoughtful shot-making, and strong long-iron play are expected to be more successful. This approach is likely to be more advantageous than one primarily dependent on raw power [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Additionally, market probabilities are significantly influenced by dynamic shifts in sentiment. While pre-tournament betting and prediction markets initially favored Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, market sentiment tends to shift towards in-play performers as the tournament progresses [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 14, 2026
- Closes: June 14, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The accurate scheduling and execution of the 2026 PGA Championship, set for May 14–17, 2026, at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, serves as a primary catalyst [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, market probabilities are significantly influenced by dynamic shifts in sentiment.
- Trigger: While pre-tournament betting and prediction markets initially favored Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, market sentiment tends to shift towards in-play performers as the tournament progresses [^] [^] [^] .
13. Related News
Last updated: May 17, 2026, 12:26 UTC
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Last updated: May 17, 2026, 12:26 UTC
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14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP10-PGC26-SYEL: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-PGC26-BSNE: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-PGC26-TIW: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-PGC26-RYV: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-PGC26-ANS: NO (May 16, 2026)
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