PGA Championship: Top 10 Finishers
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: Rich Beem at 0.0% model vs 79.0% market for a top 10 finish at the 2026 PGA Championship, suggesting the market may be significantly overestimating his chances.
1. Executive Verdict
- Warm, windy conditions are forecast for Aronimink's final championship rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler's Round 1 accuracy and putting skills support his favorite status.
- Rory McIlroy's poor short game impacted his Round 1 performance significantly.
- Wyndham Clark showed resilience, managing an even-par 70 in Round 1.
- Martin Kaymer's Round 1 co-lead is considered a statistical anomaly.
- Course unfamiliarity at Aronimink may influence player performance during the championship.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | 20.0% | 10.2% | Jordan Spieth is a multiple major winner with a history of strong finishes. |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 12.0% | 5.2% | Ryo Hisatsune is an emerging talent showing promise in recent tournaments. |
| Rickie Fowler | 15.0% | 6.9% | Rickie Fowler has a history of strong major championship performances. |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 6.0% | 2.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| John Keefer | 1.0% | 0.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
The 2026 PGA Championship began with strong performances from key contenders. Hosted at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, the tournament is scheduled to run from May 14–17, 2026 [^][^]. Following the conclusion of the first round, Scottie Scheffler, Martin Kaymer, and Aldrich Potgieter were among the leaders, each tied at three-under-par [^]. Rory McIlroy was also noted to have struggled in the initial round [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market shows a generally upward trend, with the probability of a top 10 finish increasing from a starting price of 37.0% to a current price of 53.0%. The contract has traded within a wide range, from a low of 13.0% to a high of 54.0%. The price action includes a reported drop of 15.0 percentage points on May 14, followed by a sharp 38.0 percentage point spike on May 15. However, the available context does not provide a specific catalyst for these movements and indicates that around this time, the golfer was already positioned within the top 10 of the leaderboard, which would align with a higher, not lower, probability.
The market has seen significant activity, with a total volume of over 48,000 contracts traded, suggesting strong interest and conviction from participants. Key price points include the low of 13.0%, which may represent a support level, and the peak of 54.0%, which is acting as a resistance level that the current price is testing. The overall upward trajectory and the current price near the market's high suggest that market sentiment has become increasingly positive. Traders appear to have gained confidence in the golfer's chances of securing a top 10 finish as the tournament has progressed, reflecting the on-field performance where the golfer was reported to be tied for ninth place.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📈 May 15, 2026: 38.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 53.0%
What happened: There is no evidence of a 38.0 percentage point price spike for Ludvig Åberg in the "PGA Championship: Top 10 Finishers" market on May 15, 2026 [^]. On that date, Åberg was tied for 9th place at the 2026 PGA Championship, already positioning him within the top 10 finishers category [^]. The user's query likely conflates current tournament performance with his notable collapse at The Players Championship in March 2026, which would typically cause a price decrease [^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, no social media activity or other drivers can be identified as the primary cause for the described price movement, as it is not supported by the available information.
📉 May 14, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 32.0% to 17.0%
What happened: There is no evidence of a 15.0 percentage point drop or specific social media catalyst related to Ludvig Aberg on May 14, 2026, for the PGA Championship prediction market [^]. While Aberg is currently tied for ninth place in the 2026 PGA Championship as of May 16, 2026, having shot 72 and 66 [^], no significant negative news or social media activity corresponds to the requested movement date. However, Aberg did experience a notable collapse during the final round of the 2026 Players Championship in March 2026, shooting a 4-over 76 and falling from the lead to a tie for fifth [^]. Given the lack of evidence for the specified date, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for the stated market movement on May 14, 2026.
Outcome: Patrick Cantlay
📈 May 10, 2026: 23.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 25.0%
What happened: The 23.0 percentage point (pp) spike observed on May 10, 2026, appears to be unrelated to Patrick Cantlay or the PGA Championship, according to the available research [^]. Instead, the term "spike 23.0pp" is associated with "Pi Network Protocol V23," which generated significant social media hype in May 2026 [^]. While Patrick Cantlay did achieve a tied-for-10th finish at the Truist Championship on May 10, 2026, just before the PGA Championship [^], the research does not indicate this performance caused a 23.0pp price movement in his Top 10 finish market. Therefore, social media was likely irrelevant as a primary driver for a 23.0pp spike in Patrick Cantlay's PGA Championship market, as this specific spike was tied to a different event [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, based on sources from Fox Sports, ESPN, and PGATour.com. If Gotterup forfeits, withdraws, or doesn't participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price; if he withdraws after teeing off, it resolves to "No." The market opened on April 13, 2026, and will close after the event occurs or by June 14, 2026, at 12:00 am EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick McNealy | $0.60 | $0.47 | 60% |
| Min Woo Lee | $0.55 | $0.50 | 54% |
| Alex Smalley | $0.50 | $0.52 | 50% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $0.50 | $0.54 | 50% |
| David Puig | $0.33 | $0.70 | 33% |
| Max Greyserman | $0.30 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Stephan Jaeger | $0.27 | $0.75 | 27% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.20 | $0.84 | 20% |
| Patrick Reed | $0.19 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Aaron Rai | $0.21 | $0.82 | 18% |
| Andrew Novak | $0.18 | $0.84 | 15% |
| Rickie Fowler | $0.15 | $0.87 | 15% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $0.14 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Hao-Tong Li | $0.10 | $0.99 | 10% |
| Corey Conners | $0.13 | $0.92 | 9% |
| Daniel Hillier | $0.11 | $0.93 | 9% |
| Daniel Berger | $0.04 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Rico Hoey | $0.10 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Sahith Theegala | $0.10 | $0.94 | 8% |
| Nick Taylor | $0.08 | $0.95 | 7% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | $0.07 | $0.97 | 6% |
| Andrew Putnam | $0.09 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Bud Cauley | $0.08 | $0.96 | 6% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | $0.06 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $0.05 | $0.98 | 6% |
| Keith Mitchell | $0.08 | $0.98 | 5% |
| John Parry | $0.02 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Luke Donald | $0.02 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Matt Wallace | $0.04 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Matti Schmid | $0.06 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.05 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Dustin Johnson | $0.06 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Tom Hoge | $0.04 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Alex Noren | $0.03 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Ben Kern | $0.06 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Casey Jarvis | $0.04 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Chandler Blanchet | $0.03 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Michael Kim | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Mikael Lindberg | $0.05 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Chris Kirk | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Daniel Brown | $0.08 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Elvis Smylie | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| John Keefer | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kazuki Higa | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.77 | $0.25 | 77% |
| Cameron Young | $0.59 | $0.47 | 59% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.53 | $0.50 | 53% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.51 | $0.50 | 51% |
| Jon Rahm | $0.47 | $0.54 | 46% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.40 | $0.62 | 40% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.39 | $0.64 | 39% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $0.37 | $0.67 | 37% |
| Rory McIlroy | $0.36 | $0.68 | 36% |
| Harris English | $0.34 | $0.67 | 34% |
| Xander Schauffele | $0.30 | $0.75 | 30% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.29 | $0.73 | 27% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | $0.29 | $0.74 | 26% |
| Brooks Koepka | $0.18 | $0.88 | 21% |
| Jason Day | $0.22 | $0.80 | 21% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.17 | $0.87 | 16% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $0.17 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Denny McCarthy | $0.05 | $1.00 | 12% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.12 | $0.91 | 12% |
| Sam Burns | $0.11 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.13 | $0.91 | 9% |
| Joaquin Niemann | $0.11 | $0.93 | 9% |
| Cameron Smith | $0.14 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.12 | $0.94 | 8% |
| Taylor Pendrith | $0.03 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Justin Rose | $0.08 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Brian Harman | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.04 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Martin Kaymer | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | $0.04 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Sami Valimaki | $0.03 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Padraig Harrington | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| William Mouw | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders are expressing general optimism for specific golfers to achieve a top 10 finish in the PGA Championship, with users indicating support for players like Brooks Koepka, Alex Smalley, and Jon Rahm. The discussion lacks detailed arguments for either a "Yes" or "No" outcome, with posts primarily consisting of brief affirmative statements such as "They can do it.." or expressions of encouragement. While there's active participation, there isn't a clear consensus beyond general bullish sentiment for certain players to perform well.
5. How could the projected weather conditions for Rounds 3 and 4 at Aronimink Golf Club affect specific players?
| Round 3 Temperature | Approximately 79°F (May 16, 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Round 4 Temperature | 83-86°F (May 17, 2026) [^][^] |
| Course Conditions Impact | Firmer, faster, more challenging greens [^][^] |
Warm, windy conditions are forecast for Aronimink's final rounds. For Round 3 on May 16, 2026, Aronimink Golf Club is predicted to be mostly sunny with temperatures around 79°F. Winds are expected from the southwest at 7-9 mph, with gusts reaching 18-20 mph. Round 4 on May 17, 2026, anticipates very warm conditions, with highs between 83-86°F and west winds at 8-10 mph, gusting up to 17 mph [^][^].
The course will firm up, favoring precise ball strikers. The shift to warmer, drier weather over the weekend is expected to firm up the course, making the greens faster and more challenging. These conditions are particularly favorable for players who excel at controlling ball flight and adapting to firmer, quicker surfaces [^][^].
Top contenders will test skills against these challenging conditions. The "PGA Championship: Top 10 Finishers" prediction market features leading contenders such as Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, and Xander Schauffele. Their ability to manage the firming course conditions and potential wind gusts during the final two rounds may significantly influence their performance [^][^][^].
6. Beyond his position on the leaderboard, what performance metrics from Round 1 support Scottie Scheffler's status as the tournament favorite?
| Fairways Missed | 1 (Round 1) [^] |
|---|---|
| Longest Birdie Putts | 40 feet and 30 feet (Round 1) [^] |
| Field Finishing Under Par | ~20% [^][^][^] |
His performance featured exceptional accuracy and strong putting throughout the round. Scheffler notably missed only one fairway, showcasing precise ball striking. His putting was equally impressive, highlighted by two significant birdie putts: one from just under 40 feet on the 7th hole and another from just under 30 feet on the 10th hole [^].
7. How do the Round 1 struggles of Rory McIlroy compare to the performance of fellow favorite Wyndham Clark, and what does each need to do to secure a top-10 finish?
| Rory McIlroy Round 1 Score | 4-over 74 [^] |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy Round 1 Fairways Hit | 5 of 14 (missed 9) [^] |
| Wyndham Clark Round 1 Score | Not explicitly detailed [^][^] |
Rory McIlroy faced significant challenges during his opening round. He carded a 4-over 74 in Round 1 of the 2026 PGA Championship, primarily due to inaccuracy off the tee. McIlroy missed nine of 14 fairways, including six of seven on his second nine holes. He concluded his round with four consecutive bogeys, a first in his major championship career [^].
Wyndham Clark's initial performance remains undisclosed for Round 1. While Clark is listed among the field at the 2026 PGA Championship, his specific Round 1 score is not detailed in the available information [^][^]. To secure a top-10 finish, McIlroy faces a substantial challenge after his opening 74, requiring significant improvement in both driving accuracy and short-game performance in the subsequent rounds [^].
8. According to live ShotLink data, which players in the top 20 after Round 1 are showing the most sustainable performance?
| 2026 PGA Championship Sustainability Data | Not publicly aggregated [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Round 1 Leaders | Seven players at 3-under par [^] |
| Players within 3 strokes of lead | 48 players [^] |
Live ShotLink data is not yet available to assess sustainability. Due to the absence of publicly aggregated live ShotLink data, including metrics like driving distance, save percentage, and strokes gained, it is not currently possible to identify the most sustainable performers among the top 20 players after Round 1 of the 2026 PGA Championship [^][^].
Round 1 concluded with an exceptionally crowded leaderboard. The 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club concluded its first round with a notably crowded leaderboard. Seven players, including defending champion Scottie Scheffler and Martin Kaymer, are tied for the lead at 3-under par. A record 48 players are positioned within three strokes of the lead, marking the highest number of players within that range after any round in a major championship's modern era. Prediction markets are closely monitoring top-tier players such as Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, and Rory McIlroy for "Top 10 Finisher" prospects [^][^][^][^].
Certain players have been recognized for past sustainable performance. While current sustainability metrics for the 2026 PGA Championship remain unaggregated, analysts have previously recognized players like Min Woo Lee and Gary Woodland for their consistent performance when evaluating sustainability through standard metrics [^][^].
9. Is Martin Kaymer's co-lead after Round 1 a statistical anomaly or is it backed by recent improvements in his game?
| Kaymer's Round 1 PGA Championship Result | Co-lead (2026 PGA Championship) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Recent Form Before Championship | Poor, characterized by missed cuts and negative strokes-gained metrics [^][^] |
| Attributed Cause for Round 1 Co-lead | Surge of personal motivation following a slight from a PGA of America official [^][^][^][^] |
Martin Kaymer's co-lead was an anomaly, not improved play. Martin Kaymer's co-lead after Round 1 of the 2026 PGA Championship is widely regarded as a statistical anomaly, rather than an indication of recent improvements in his game [^][^][^][^]. His performance leading into the championship had been consistently poor [^][^].
Motivation, not sustained form, drove Kaymer's Round 1. The surprising co-lead is largely attributed to a surge of personal motivation, specifically following a perceived slight from a PGA of America official at the champions dinner [^][^][^][^]. His recent form was otherwise marked by missed cuts, struggles with consistency, and negative strokes-gained metrics across all major categories [^][^], suggesting the Round 1 performance was not due to a sustained trend of improved play [^][^][^][^].
Kaymer's self-assessment contrasts with external views. Although Kaymer himself credited his Round 1 performance to better physical and mental preparation, the broader context of his career struggles suggests that this round was an outlier [^][^][^]. It was likely driven by emotional intensity rather than a lasting improvement in his game [^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 PGA Championship, scheduled for May 14
–17, 2026, at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania [^] [^] [^] , introduces several key catalysts that could influence prediction markets. A significant factor is course unfamiliarity, as Aronimink has not hosted the event since 1962 [^][^][^]. Weather conditions are also anticipated to be a catalyst, potentially affecting early-round scoring [^][^][^].
Player form is another crucial catalyst for betting and prediction markets, with examples such as Rory McIlroy's Masters momentum [^] [^] [^] . Bullish indicators include strong recent performance metrics like strokes gained and bogey avoidance [^][^]. Conversely, bearish indicators encompass injury concerns, such as Bryson DeChambeau's wrist, and poor recent form [^][^]. Prediction markets, including Polymarket, have identified Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Cameron Young as top favorites, with market activity reacting live to tournament developments [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 14, 2026
- Closes: June 14, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 PGA Championship, scheduled for May 14 –17, 2026, at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania [^] [^] [^] , introduces several key catalysts that could influence prediction markets.
- Trigger: A significant factor is course unfamiliarity, as Aronimink has not hosted the event since 1962 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Weather conditions are also anticipated to be a catalyst, potentially affecting early-round scoring [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Player form is another crucial catalyst for betting and prediction markets, with examples such as Rory McIlroy's Masters momentum [^] [^] [^] .
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP10-PGC26-SYEL: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-PGC26-BSNE: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-PGC26-TIW: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-PGC26-RYV: NO (May 16, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-PGC26-ANS: NO (May 16, 2026)
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