San Francisco vs Tampa Bay: First Inning Run
Yes refers to: Yes
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Confirmed starting pitchers for Giants vs. Rays are known.
- Advanced metrics analyze batter-pitcher matchups for first-inning run predictions.
- Hunter Wendelstedt serves as home plate umpire for the game.
- No late lineup changes were reported for Giants vs. Rays.
- Market saw a 35-point probability increase on April 29.
- A subsequent 30-point probability drop occurred on May 1.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45.0% | 45.0% | While starting pitchers Logan Webb and Robbie Ray are confirmed, the research explicitly states a lack of specific first-inning performance data for their recent starts, meaning there is no evidence to shift the debiased probability of 45.0% for a first-inning run. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 May 01, 2026: 30.0pp drop
Price decreased from 75.0% to 45.0%
Outcome: Yes
📈 April 29, 2026: 35.0pp spike
Price increased from 40.0% to 75.0%
Outcome: Yes
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if either the San Francisco Giants or Tampa Bay Rays score a run in the first inning of their professional baseball game, originally scheduled for May 1, 2026, at 7:10 PM EDT; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on April 28, 2026, and will close after the outcome occurs, or by May 4, 2026, if not resolved earlier. The outcome will be verified from the Governing League (MLB.com), and the market is set to close and expire early if the event occurs.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | $0.46 | $0.55 | 45% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Who Are the Confirmed Starting Pitchers for Giants vs. Rays?
| Giants Confirmed Starter | Logan Webb [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Rays Confirmed Starter | Robbie Ray [^], [^], [^] |
| First-Inning Stats Availability | Not directly available from current research [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^] |
6. How Do Advanced Metrics Predict First-Inning Run Probabilities?
| Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) | Measures overall offensive value [^] |
|---|---|
| Isolated Power (ISO) | Quantifies raw power by indicating extra-base hit frequency [^] |
| Key Analysis Factor | Opposing pitcher's handedness (LHP vs RHP) [^] |
7. What is the YRFI line movement for Giants-Rays May 1, 2026?
| YRFI Line Movement (Giants vs. Rays, May 1, 2026) | Not available for opening to current lines on high-limit sportsbooks [^]. |
|---|---|
| General Game Odds and Picks (Giants vs. Rays, May 1, 2026) | Available [^] |
| General YRFI Information | Meaning of YRFI explained [^], MLB YRFI percentages [^], and YRFI odds for April 4, 2026 [^] |
8. What Are Hunter Wendelstedt's Umpire Statistics for 2026 Season?
| Home Plate Umpire | Hunter Wendelstedt (SFG vs. TBR, May 1, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Called-Strike Accuracy (2026) | 97.5% (League average 97.2%) [^] |
| K-rate (2026) | 8.1 K/9 (League average 8.0 K/9) [^] |
9. Were late lineup changes reported for Giants vs. Rays on May 1, 2026?
| Reported Late Lineup Changes | None for primary leadoff or cleanup hitters (Multiple sources [^]) |
|---|---|
| Specific Scratched Player Type | No primary leadoff or cleanup hitter scratches reported within 90 minutes of first pitch (Web research [^]) |
| Game Covered | San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays, May 1, 2026 ([^]) |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 04, 2026
- Closes: May 04, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMLBRFI-26APR301940TORMIN: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXMLBRFI-26APR301505KCATH: YES (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXMLBRFI-26APR301340AZMIL: YES (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXMLBRFI-26APR301305SFPHI: YES (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXMLBRFI-26APR301310WSHNYM: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
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