Who will attend Trump's crypto & business conference?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Donald Trump to attend his crypto & business conference, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- The official organizing entity for the conference remains unnamed.
- Changpeng Zhao's sentence includes specific travel and residence restrictions.
- Money20/20 Asia confirms dates conflicting with the Trump conference.
- No press contact or communications director is named for the conference.
- The market observed significant price drops in mid-April.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 88.0% | 91.3% | As the host, Donald Trump is expected to attend his own crypto and business conference. |
| Nick Pinto | 55.0% | 49.0% | His involvement in political or business circles might lead to an invitation. |
| Eric Trump | 68.0% | 68.7% | As a key figure in the Trump Organization, Eric Trump is likely to attend. |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 44.0% | 35.8% | Donald Trump Jr. frequently supports his father's ventures and public appearances. |
| Justin Sun | 15.0% | 7.6% | A well-known figure in the crypto space, Justin Sun often attends industry events. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price chart illustrates a strong and rapid downward trend. After opening at a 49.0% probability, the price rallied to a peak of 70.0% before a sharp reversal. The most significant price action occurred in mid-April, beginning with a 29.0 percentage point drop on April 12th, which was followed by another steep 27.0 percentage point decline on April 16th. These two movements were the primary drivers that pushed the price from its high point down to the current 15.0% probability, establishing a clear bearish trajectory for the market.
The specific reasons for the sudden price drops are not apparent from the chart data alone, as no external context or news has been provided. Such abrupt and large-scale movements typically indicate that traders reacted to new information that significantly lowered the perceived probability of a "YES" outcome. From a technical perspective, the 70.0% price point acted as a firm resistance level that was quickly rejected. The price is now approaching its all-time low of 9.1%, which may serve as a potential support level. The overall trading volume of 2,263 contracts indicates healthy participation, but without daily volume figures, it is difficult to assess the level of conviction during the major price declines. The chart clearly shows market sentiment has shifted dramatically from optimistic to highly pessimistic, with traders currently assessing a low likelihood of the event resolving to "YES".
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Justin Sun
π April 16, 2026: 27.0pp drop
Price decreased from 41.0% to 14.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
π April 12, 2026: 29.0pp drop
Price decreased from 70.0% to 41.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
π April 07, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 46.0% to 61.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Jack Lu
π April 10, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 40.0% to 53.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Nick Pinto attends Trump's crypto & business conference, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026. Attendance is confirmed by specified news agencies or Pinto's own social media posts, with even brief or partial appearances counting; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on March 13, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT and will close either upon the event's occurrence or by April 26, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | $0.88 | $0.17 | 88% |
| Eric Trump | $0.74 | $0.32 | 68% |
| Nick Pinto | $0.56 | $0.49 | 55% |
| Jack Lu | $0.37 | $0.70 | 49% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | $0.46 | $0.61 | 44% |
| Barron Trump | $0.20 | $0.86 | 30% |
| Lamar Odom | $0.17 | $0.87 | 29% |
| David Sacks | $0.12 | $0.90 | 15% |
| Justin Sun | $0.14 | $0.90 | 15% |
| Changpeng Zhao | $0.06 | $0.97 | 6% |
| Ashley Moody | $0.07 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The discussion revolves around the potential attendance of David Sacks and Donald Trump (Sr.). Traders debate David Sacks' attendance, with one argument suggesting it makes sense given his perceived "crypto czar" role, while another counters that he may no longer hold that position. A primary argument against Donald Trump's attendance is a scheduling conflict, as he is reportedly slated to attend the White House Correspondents Dinner on the same evening.
5. Who are the organizers and top sponsors of Trump's crypto conference?
| Official Conference Organizer | Not explicitly named in research [^] |
|---|---|
| Top-Tier Sponsors | Not determinable from research [^] |
| Trump family member speaker | Eric Trump at Bitcoin 2026 [^] |
The official organizing entity for "Trump's crypto & business conference" is not explicitly named. President Trump is expected to headline this conference at Mar-a-Lago, but the specific organizer remains unidentified in the provided web research [^]. While "GetTrumpMemes" is associated with a "Crypto & Business Conference" [^] and "Fight Fight Fight LLC" is mentioned in the context of TRUMP tokens [^], neither of these entities is confirmed as the event's official organizer.
Top-tier sponsors for the conference remain undisclosed in the available research. Information regarding specific corporations signed on as 'Platinum' or 'Diamond' sponsors for "Trump's crypto & business conference" is not determinable from the provided sources. Although a "Sponsor" page URL is listed for the "Bitcoin 2026 Conference" [^], the content detailing specific sponsors and their tiers is not included. Separately, Eric Trump is confirmed as a speaker for the "Bitcoin 2026 Conference" [^], with its official website identified as 2026.b.tc [^].
6. What Major Global Conferences Are Confirmed for April 20-30, 2026?
| Confirmed Conference | Policy20 at Money20/20 Asia (Bangkok, Thailand) [^] |
|---|---|
| Confirmed Conference Dates | April 21-23, 2026 [^] |
| Prediction Market Resolution Date | April 25, 2026 [^] |
Policy20 at Money20/20 Asia confirms dates within April 20-30, 2026. One significant global conference with publicly confirmed dates between April 20-30, 2026, is Policy20 at Money20/20 Asia, scheduled for April 21-23, 2026, in Bangkok, Thailand [^]. This event is recognized as Asia's premier regulatory forum, operating within the larger Money20/20 Asia conference. Although other events like FinTech Meets Capital in Cairo and Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas are mentioned for April 2026 or generally in 2026, their exact dates within the specified April 20-30 window lack explicit confirmation in the available sources [^]. Notably, a prediction market concerning a 'Trump's crypto & business conference' resolves on April 25, 2026, placing it directly within this timeframe [^].
Money20/20 Asia speakers historically differ from a potential 'Trump conference' roster. Regarding potential speaker overlap, Money20/20 Asia, which hosts Policy20, has historically featured prominent figures from financial technology, traditional banking, and regulatory bodies [^]. For example, its 2024 speaker lineup included executives from Rakuten Payment, Kyash, LINE Xenesis, and MUFG Bank, alongside other fintech founders, CEOs, and government representatives [^]. In contrast, a 'Trump's crypto & business conference' would likely attract individuals from the cryptocurrency industry, business leaders, and political figures [^]. While no direct comparative list of attendees or speakers exists between Money20/20 Asia and a 'Trump conference,' Money20/20 Asia's focus on broader fintech innovation and financial regulation suggests a different primary demographic compared to the more specific political and business alignment often associated with a 'Trump conference' [^].
7. What Were the Legal Outcomes for Changpeng Zhao and Justin Sun?
| Changpeng Zhao Imprisonment | 4 months [^] |
|---|---|
| Changpeng Zhao Supervised Release | 2 years [^] |
| Justin Sun SEC Settlement Amount | $6,189,543 [^] |
Changpeng Zhao received a four-month sentence with specific travel and residence conditions. His final sentencing and probation documents stipulated a four-month imprisonment term, followed by a two-year period of supervised release [1, p. 2-3]. Conditions for his supervised release included prohibitions on leaving the judicial district without permission from the court or his probation officer, a requirement to reside at an approved location, and an obligation to notify the probation officer of any changes in his residence or employment [1, p. 4]. There was also a mention of a presidential pardon for Zhao issued by Trump, though the specific date of this pardon was not provided in the available information [^].
Justin Sun settled an SEC fraud investigation totaling over six million dollars. As of March 1, 2026, Justin Sun was engaged in an active U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigation for fraud, which concluded with a settlement on March 5, 2026 [^]. The final judgment mandated Justin Sun to pay a total of $6,189,543, which encompassed $2,000,000 in disgorgement, $189,543 in prejudgment interest, and a $4,000,000 civil penalty [9, p. 2]. Another source reported the settlement amount more broadly as $10 million [^]. The research did not indicate any active Department of Justice investigations into Justin Sun as of March 1, 2026.
8. Were Lamar Odom or Other Non-Politicians Paid at Trump Crypto Events?
| General Speaker Fee Budget | No disclosed budget for general speakers (web research) [^] |
|---|---|
| Lamar Odom Appearance Contract | No evidence of payment or specific contract [^] |
| David Sacks Mention | Not found in provided research [^] |
Speaker fee budgets for Donald Trump's crypto events are undisclosed. The available research does not specify a general speaker fee budget for Donald Trump's crypto and business conferences, nor does it provide evidence of 'appearance contracts' for non-political figures at these events. While Donald Trump is consistently identified as the headliner [^], financial arrangements for other potential speakers are not detailed. Reporting primarily focuses on attendee costs, with VIP access prices ranging from over $70,000 to a reported $7 million for a VIP lunch with Trump, often linked to cryptocurrency token values [^].
Lamar Odom attended, but no appearance contract was reported. Regarding specific non-political figures, former NBA star Lamar Odom was reported to have attended and 'joined' a Trump crypto dinner, even being booed during the event [^]. However, none of the articles suggest he was offered a specific appearance contract or received payment for his presence. His attendance is noted within the context of the event itself and its controversies [^].
David Sacks is not mentioned in the provided research. Furthermore, David Sacks is not mentioned in any of the provided research results in relation to these events. The available research consistently lacks specific evidence of 'appearance contracts' or speaker fee budgets for non-political individuals at these conferences.
9. Who is the Press Contact for Trump's Crypto Conference & Agenda Release?
| Press Secretary/Communications Director | Not explicitly named [^] |
|---|---|
| Full Agenda Release Timeline | No published schedule specified [^] |
| Confirmed Speakers | President Trump, Don Jr., and Eric Trump [^] |
No specific Press Secretary or Communications Director is explicitly named for the "Trump's crypto & business conference." The official event website and initial press releases do not identify an individual for this role [^] . While the "Contact Us" page on the GetTrumpMemes website provides a general contact email, it does not list specific individuals or roles designated for press or communications inquiries [^].
A published timeline for speaker and agenda releases is currently unavailable. The official event website, GetTrumpMemes.com/conference, does not detail a specific schedule for announcing the 'featured speakers' list or the 'full agenda' [^]. Although President Trump, Don Jr., and Eric Trump are confirmed as speakers, the website does not provide a future timeline for the release of a comprehensive speaker list or the complete event agenda [^]. Similarly, available news articles discuss the confirmed speakers and event details but do not outline a public timeline for subsequent announcements regarding the full agenda or additional speakers [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 26, 2026
- Closes: April 26, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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