New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory
Yes refers to: Republicans, 2+ pts
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Republicans to win New Hampshire's 1st District by 2 or more points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- NH-01 has a history of competitive elections and party flips. Stefany Shaheen appears to lead early Democratic fundraising efforts. Independent voters in NH-01 primarily prioritize the cost of living. Former President Trump's approval ratings remained low in early 2026. * Both Democratic and Republican primary outcomes will be key catalysts.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 2+ pts | 8.9% | 6.1% | Current electoral conditions suggest Republicans may achieve a 2+ point margin. |
Current Context
New Hampshire's 1st District is historically competitive. The seat has frequently changed hands, doing so in five out of eight elections between the mid-2000s and 2010s [^]. Democrat Chris Pappas, the incumbent, recently secured victories in the district. He won the 2024 election with 54.0% of the vote [^], the 2022 general election against Republican Karoline Leavitt [^][^], and his 2020 re-election with 51.3% of the vote [^][^]. The district was considered a presidential bellwether until 2024, when it voted for Kamala Harris, despite her losing the overall election [^].
The 2026 election features an open seat. With Chris Pappas vacating his position to run for the U.S. Senate, the 2026 contest for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District will be an open race [^][^]. On the Democratic side, Stefany Shaheen has emerged as a frontrunner, polling at 23% support in a September 2025 survey, followed by Maura Sullivan at 9% [^]. Other Democratic candidates who have filed financial disclosures include Carleigh Beriont, State Representative Heath Howard, and Sarah Chadzinski [^]. The Republican primary is considered "wide open," with candidates like Brian Cole, Melissa Bailey, Anthony DiLorenzo, and Hollie Noveletsky in the running [^][^]. The Cook Political Report, as of February 6, 2025, has rated the 2026 race as "Likely D," indicating a leaning toward the Democratic party [^]. However, Republicans view the district as a potential pickup opportunity, especially considering that Kamala Harris carried the district by only two points in the last presidential election [^].
Upcoming election deadlines and market insights are available. Key dates for the 2026 election cycle include the Filing Deadline on June 12, 2026 [^][^], the Primary Election on September 8, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^], and the General Election on November 3, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. On a prediction market, there is an option tracking whether the Republican Party will win the 2026 election in New Hampshire's 1st District by 2 percentage points or more [^]. Another market focuses on the Democratic nominee, indicating Stefany Shaheen with a 61% chance of securing the nomination, Maura Sullivan with 31%, and Carleigh Beriont with 10% [^]. These market figures align with early polling data that positions Shaheen as the leading Democratic contender [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has experienced a significant and rapid upward trend. The contract price started at a low of 1.0% and has since climbed to its current price of 8.9%, just shy of its peak at 9.0%. The most dramatic movement was a sharp spike where the price jumped from 1.0% to 7.9% and then continued to 8.9% in a short period. The provided context, which focuses on the district's historical competitiveness and the incumbent's past election victories, does not offer a specific catalyst for this sudden re-pricing of the contract.
The total volume of 3,829 contracts traded indicates a moderate level of interest in this market. However, the sample data points show the recent price increases occurred on days with zero trading volume, which could suggest that the price shifts were driven by market maker adjustments or a small number of orders rather than broad market activity on those specific days. The price chart has established a clear support level at the 1.0% floor and is currently testing resistance at its all-time high around 9.0%. Overall, the price action suggests a swift and decisive shift in market sentiment, with traders now assigning a much higher probability to this outcome than they did at the market's inception.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Hampshire's 1st District by 2 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The margin of victory is calculated as the Republican Party's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate/party immediately behind them, with no rounding applied. The market opened on May 5, 2026, closes early upon certified election results (or by November 3, 2027, at the latest), and projects payouts 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 2+ pts | $0.09 | $0.91 | 9% |
Market Discussion
Public discussion suggests New Hampshire's 1st District leans Democratic, with a D+2 Cook PVI and an 8.1% House Democratic margin in 2024 [^]. Prediction markets show a high probability of a Democratic win, ranging from 61-92% [^], aligning with race ratings that categorize the district as 'Likely/Lean Democratic' as of March 2026 [^]. Stefany Shaheen is the Democratic primary favorite [^], while Anthony DiLorenzo appears to be the leading Republican primary candidate [^], with both primaries scheduled for September 8, 2026 [^].
4. What historical voting data and demographic trends in NH-01 support the possibility of a Republican victory of 2 or more points in November 2026?
| 2014 House Election Margin | Republican victory of 3.6 points (2014 House election) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 House Election Status | Open seat, targeted by GOP [^][^][^] |
| Cook PVI | D+2 [^][^] |
NH-01 has a history of competitive elections and party flips. Republicans have previously secured victories, notably in the 2014 House election where Guinta (R) won with a 3.6-point margin over Shea-Porter (D), achieving 51.7% of the vote [^]. More recent House elections, however, show incumbent Pappas (D) winning the 2024 cycle by D+8.07 points [^][^] and the 2022 cycle by D+8.1 points [^][^]. Despite these recent Democratic victories, the district remains competitive, reflected by its Cook PVI rating of D+2 [^][^]. The 2026 election is particularly significant as the seat will be open due to incumbent Pappas retiring for a Senate bid, positioning it as a key target for the GOP [^][^][^].
The 2026 election presents a significant opportunity for Republicans. The open seat, combined with the district's swing nature, suggests potential for a Republican victory. In the 2024 Presidential election, Harris's inferred margin over Trump was approximately D+2-4 points [^][^][^]. Demographically, NH-01 is characterized by a population that is 94% white, 43% college graduates, has a median age of 43, and a 72% homeownership rate [^][^][^]. These factors collectively contribute to the district's classification as a competitive swing district.
5. How do the leading Democratic candidate, Stefany Shaheen, and the top Republican contenders compare in early fundraising ahead of the 2026 primaries?
| Stefany Shaheen Total Receipts | $1,800,995 (April 2025 to March 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Stefany Shaheen Q1 2026 Cash on Hand | $1.1M [^] |
| Anthony DiLorenzo Total Receipts | Approximately $1.3M (including $800k in self-loans) [^] |
Stefany Shaheen leads the field with substantial early fundraising success. As the leading Democratic candidate, Shaheen has amassed $1,800,995 in total receipts between April 2025 and March 2026 [^]. She maintains a significant financial advantage, concluding Q1 2026 with $1.1 million cash on hand, placing her ahead of top Republican contenders in both overall fundraising and available funds [^]. During Q1 2026 alone, Shaheen reported raising $510,000 from over 9,000 contributions, with a notable 95% of these contributions being $100 or less [^][^].
Republican candidates exhibit reliance on personal loans, trailing Shaheen significantly. Anthony DiLorenzo, favored in the Polymarket GOP primary with 44-47% support [^], reported approximately $1.3 million in total receipts, a figure that includes $800,000 in self-loans [^]. For Q1 2026, DiLorenzo's total receipts were $443,000, though only $92,000 came from contributions, leaving him with $827,000 cash on hand [^]. Hollie Noveletsky, another Republican polling at 40% on Polymarket [^], reported total receipts of $441,000 [^]. Her Q1 2026 fundraising totaled $196,000, which consisted of a $100,000 loan and $96,000 from contributions, resulting in $406,000 cash on hand [^][^]. Other Republican candidates, including Brian Cole and Melissa Bailey, similarly show a substantial dependence on personal loans for their campaign financing [^]. The race is currently rated as Likely D [^].
6. How could the national political climate, specifically President Harris's approval ratings in mid-2026, influence swing voter behavior in the NH-01 race?
| Trump National Approval (April-May 2026) | 37-42% (Marist [^][^][^] and Harvard-Harris [^][^][^]) |
|---|---|
| Trump NH Approval (April 2026) | 39% approve / 60% disapprove (UNH [^][^]) |
| Generic Ballot Advantage (January 2026) | Democrats +5.3% [^] |
Former President Trump's approval ratings remained low nationally and in New Hampshire during early 2026. National polls in April-May 2026 showed his approval ranging from approximately 37% by Marist to 42% by Harvard-Harris [^][^][^]. In New Hampshire specifically, Trump's approval was reported at 39% against 60% disapproval in April 2026, according to the UNH survey [^][^].
Swing voters show a national shift toward Democrats, potentially benefiting the NH-01 race. A national generic ballot in January 2026 indicated Democrats holding a 5.3% lead, suggesting a shift among swing voters towards the Democratic Party [^]. This trend, coupled with the historical midterm dynamic where the opposition party often gains from lower presidential approval, could support a Democratic outcome in the NH-01 district [^][^]. Forecasts for the NH-01 race show a Democratic win probability of 61-82%, building on the district's D+2% presidential margin from 2024 [^][^].
7. What is the expected schedule and reliability of public polling for the NH-01 general election between the September 8 primary and the November 3, 2026 election?
| Expected October 2026 Polling Frequency | 1-2 polls per week [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary-General Election Interval (2026) | 56 days [^] |
| 2024 NH-01 General Election Polling Example | UNH polled Sep 19, Nov 3; Saint Anselm polled Sep 16, Oct 3, Oct 30 [^] |
Public polling in NH-01 intensifies after the September 2026 primary. For the 56-day interval between the September 8, 2026 primary and the November 3, 2026 general election, public polling for the NH-01 general election is expected to increase in frequency [^]. Specifically, 1-2 polls per week are anticipated in October 2026 for the general election [^][^]. This increased frequency aligns with historical patterns observed in previous NH-01 election cycles.
Recent election cycles demonstrate consistent post-primary polling activity. In the 2024 general election cycle, the University of New Hampshire (UNH) conducted polls on September 19 and November 3, while Saint Anselm College conducted polls on September 16, October 3, and October 30 [^]. Similarly, the 2022 NH-01 cycle saw UNH polling on September 22 and November 6, and Saint Anselm College polling on October 5 and November 1 [^].
Polling also occurs regularly in the lead-up to the primary. Leading up to the primary, UNH polls NH-01 primary crosstabs quarterly, with examples including September 2025, January 2026, and April 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Saint Anselm College conducts polls quarterly or monthly, such as in August/September 2025, November 2025, and March 2026 [^][^][^].
8. How do the Republican and Democratic party platforms on key 2026 issues align with the stated priorities of independent voters in NH-01?
| Independent voter economic approval | President Trump's approval on economy at 21% (December 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Top issue for NH | Housing affordability and property taxes identified as "the single greatest issue facing New Hampshire" [^][^][^] |
| Primary voter concerns | Inflation, jobs, and cost of living consistently rank as primary issues [^] |
Independent voters in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District primarily prioritize the cost of living. This encompasses significant concerns such as housing affordability, property taxes, healthcare expenses, and education, with housing affordability and property taxes specifically identified as "the single greatest issue facing New Hampshire" [^][^][^][^]. Other key concerns include the cost of groceries, the need for rent subsidies, affordable transportation, and making healthcare more accessible and affordable, particularly focusing on prescription drug prices [^][^][^][^]. Inflation, jobs, and the overall cost of living consistently rank as primary issues for these voters [^].
The Democratic party platform generally aligns with several independent voter priorities. Democrats advocate for education reform and promote policies aimed at making healthcare more accessible and affordable [^][^][^]. For example, a Democratic candidate for NH-01, Stefany Shaheen, has campaigned on lowering prescription drug costs and expanding housing tax credits, directly addressing crucial voter concerns [^]. The party also supports fighting wealth concentration through tax reform, which can impact the cost of living, and promoting renewable energy [^][^][^]. Furthermore, Democrats advocate for unionization, higher taxes for the wealthy, and strengthening Social Security [^][^].
Republicans also focus on issues directly related to the overall cost of living. This includes taxes, crime, and border security, aligning with independent voters' general concerns about economic burdens [^][^][^]. They often frame elections around "cost reductions" and criticize current spending policies, linking them to inflation, which is a consistent primary issue for independent voters [^][^][^]. On healthcare, Republicans aim to address rising premiums and typically criticize the Affordable Care Act [^]. Other core Republican tenets include advocating for school choice to address education concerns [^], and supporting strong national defense and gun rights [^][^]. Among independent voters in New Hampshire, President Trump's approval on the economy was relatively low at 21% as of December 2025 [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The outcomes of the Democratic and Republican primaries will be key catalysts for market probabilities. In the Democratic primary, Stefany Shaheen appears to lead with 33-62% in polls/markets [^][^][^]. For the GOP primary, DiLorenzo holds 47% compared to Noveletsky's 41% [^]. The primaries are scheduled for September 8, 2026, with the general election on November 3, 2026 [^][^].
Current market probabilities indicate a Democratic win probability between 61-81% on Polymarket and approximately 92% on Kalshi [^] [^] [^] . Ratings are consistently Likely/Lean D across Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections as of early 2026 [^][^]. The district's PVI is D+2, and the 2024 House result showed Pappas with 54%, while presidential candidate Harris secured +2 points [^][^]. The absence of general election head-to-head polls means that their eventual release could significantly influence market sentiment, especially given an implied Democratic Margin of Victory of 5-10 points based on existing market and rating data [^][^]. Additionally, former President Trump's 32% approval in New Hampshire is considered bearish for the GOP [^], suggesting that shifts in this approval could also serve as a catalyst.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The outcomes of the Democratic and Republican primaries will be key catalysts for market probabilities.
- Trigger: In the Democratic primary, Stefany Shaheen appears to lead with 33-62% in polls/markets [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: For the GOP primary, DiLorenzo holds 47% compared to Noveletsky's 41% [^] .
- Trigger: The primaries are scheduled for September 8, 2026, with the general election on November 3, 2026 [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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