Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Democrats to win Minnesota's 8th District by 2 or more points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has experienced a significant and rapid upward trend. The contract price began at a low of 1.0% before undergoing a sharp spike, climbing to a peak of 18.0% in a very short period. Since reaching this high, the price has seen a minor pullback and has stabilized around the current level of 16.0%. This price action indicates a swift and decisive shift in market expectations after an initial period of low valuation. The overall trend is clearly upward, with the market establishing a new, much higher trading range.
The primary catalyst for the dramatic price increase appears to be the market's alignment with fundamental data about the district. The current price of 16.0% is almost identical to the 16.07-point margin of victory the Republican candidate secured in the 2024 election. This suggests that after the market opened at a very low level, traders rapidly priced in the district's strong Republican lean, which is further supported by its R+7 Cook Partisan Voting Index rating and a "Solid Republican" rating from the Cook Political Report. The price jump from 1.0% to 18.0% reflects an efficient market correction, anchoring the expected outcome to the most recent and relevant historical precedent.
The chart suggests that the recent peak of 18.0% is a key resistance level, while the current price around 16.0% is forming a strong support level. Market sentiment is firmly grounded in the belief that the upcoming election will closely mirror the 2024 result. The stabilization of the price at this level, following the initial sharp rise, suggests a consensus has formed among participants. While total volume is moderate, the price's stability indicates conviction behind the current valuation, reflecting expectations of another strong Republican performance in Minnesota's 8th District.
  • Stauber's vote lifting the BWCAW mining ban is a key vulnerability.
  • Incumbent Pete Stauber has secured consistent double-digit victories in the district.
  • The district was identified as "Safe R" in 2024, with strong Republican margins.
  • No public, non-partisan polling is available for the 2026 general election.
  • Mid-year 2026 campaign finance reports are not yet available.
  • National parties appear to show a lack of prioritization for this race.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Democrats, 2+ pts 16.0% 10.5% A favorable national political environment may boost Democratic performance in the district.

Current Context

Minnesota's 8th District strongly favors Republicans based on recent elections. In the 2024 election, Republican Pete Stauber defeated Democrat Jen Schultz by a margin of 16.07 points, securing 57.99% of the vote (244,498 votes) compared to Schultz's 41.92% (176,774 votes), a difference of 67,774 votes [1]. The district's political lean is further underscored by its Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) rating of R+7, derived from 2020 and 2024 presidential results [2]. Reflecting this strong Republican advantage, the Cook Political Report rated the 2026 race as "Solid Republican" as of April 2026 [2]. Early 2026 Polymarket odds also indicate a 71% probability of a Republican win, with Democrats at 27% [3].
The 2026 election cycle is underway with a DFL endorsement. Trina Swanson secured the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) endorsement for the 8th District on May 2, 2026, receiving over 70% of the vote [4]. Key dates for the upcoming election include a June 2 deadline for candidate filing, an August 11 primary election, and the general election on November 3 [2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Index - Election Resultselectionresults.sos.mn.gov
  2. 2Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3MN-08 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4Swanson wins 8th District DFL endorsement - WDIO.comwdio.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 8th District by 2 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The margin is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the closest opponent's, with no rounding applied. The market opened on May 5, 2026, and will close early if certified election results are published, or by November 3, 2027, with payouts occurring approximately 30 minutes after closing.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Democrats, 2+ pts $0.17 $0.84 16%

Market Discussion

Republican Pete Stauber won Minnesota's 8th District by a 16.07-point margin in 2024, securing 57.99% of the vote [1][2]. The district has a Republican lean, with a PVI of R+7 to R+8 and Donald Trump winning it by 23 points in 2020 [3][4]. Prediction markets suggest a strong likelihood of a Republican win, with one indicating 71-72% odds as of early 2026, while another market is active on the possibility of a Democratic margin of victory of 2+ points [3][4][5][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Index - Election Resultselectionresults.sos.mn.gov
  2. 2Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2024ballotpedia.org
  3. 3MN-08 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4MN-08 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketworldcoin.polymarket.com
  5. 5MN-08 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6Minnesota's 8th District margin of victory Odds & Predictionskalshi.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score94Strong
Trade quality20% of score0Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Swanson, 2+ pts—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Swanson, 2+ pts—
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Swanson, 2+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
0Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 7.4c slippage (~69% of a 10.8c contract)

$1,000 order: 34.0c slippage (~315% of a 10.8c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Swanson, 2+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 25, 2026

5. What key policy votes by incumbent Pete Stauber present the greatest vulnerability for attack by challenger Trina Swanson's 2026 campaign?

Mining Ban Lift DateApril 2026 [1]
Stauber Environment Score35% [2]
Save the Boundary Waters EndorsementApril 21 [3]
Stauber's vote lifting the BWCAW mining ban is his main vulnerability. His Senate victory in April 2026, which ended the mining ban near the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW), represents the most significant vulnerability for attack by Trina Swanson's 2026 campaign [1]. This decision quickly led to public backlash, including a Reddit mobilization on April 16 [1][4], and resulted in Save the Boundary Waters endorsing Swanson on April 21 [3]. Swanson has explicitly targeted Stauber on this issue in podcasts, characterizing his actions as granting 'Chilean mining company access'
Here’s a sneak peak where Trinal talks about the Boundary Waters—one of Minnesota’s most beautiful protected places—and Pete’s plan to let a Chilean mining company get access to it.
The full podcast episode drops Monday!" aria-label="Source 5: If you would have told us a year ago we’d be interviewing leading candidates for U.S. Congress, we wouldn’t have believed you—but here we are talking with @trinaforcongress Trina Swanson, who’s challenging Snarky Pete Stauber for Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District.</p><p>Here’s a sneak peak where Trinal talks about the Boundary Waters—one of Minnesota’s most beautiful protected places—and Pete’s plan to let a Chilean mining company get access to it.</p><p>The full podcast episode drops Monday!" data-citation-label="If you would have told us a year ago we’d be interviewing leading candidates for U.S. Congress, we wouldn’t have believed you—but here we are talking with @trinaforcongress Trina Swanson, who’s challenging Snarky Pete Stauber for Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District.</p><p>Here’s a sneak peak where Trinal talks about the Boundary Waters—one of Minnesota’s most beautiful protected places—and Pete’s plan to let a Chilean mining company get access to it.</p><p>The full podcast episode drops Monday!">[5].
The mining ban energizes opposition despite Stauber's strong electoral position. This vote has energized opposition within outdoor recreation-heavy Northeast Minnesota, despite District 8 being rated Safe/Lean R and Stauber's wide victory margin in 2024 [1][6]. Stauber's environmental score stands at 35% [2]. While his support for mining may appeal to Iron Range job concerns, it creates a divide among voters regarding wilderness protection, thus highlighting a crucial area for Swanson's campaign to exploit [2]. In contrast, Stauber's pro-life record, which includes votes against the Women's Health Protection Act and for HR 7 and the Born-Alive Act, has not generated the same immediate, campaign-specific opposition from Swanson's campaign as the BWCAW mining ban [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Rep. Pete Stauber notches key victory with Senate mining votewww2.startribune.com
  2. 2Pete Staubermyreptracker.com
  3. 3Save the Boundary Waters endorses potential Stauber opponent after Congress repeals mining banyahoo.com
  4. 4We need to help our friends in District 8 get rid of Pete Stauber - Redditreddit.com
  5. 5If you would have told us a year ago we’d be interviewing leading candidates for U.S. Congress, we wouldn’t have believed you—but here we are talking with @trinaforcongress Trina Swanson, who’s challenging Snarky Pete Stauber for Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District.</p><p>Here’s a sneak peak where Trinal talks about the Boundary Waters—one of Minnesota’s most beautiful protected places—and Pete’s plan to let a Chilean mining company get access to it.</p><p>The full podcast episode drops Monday!threads.com
  6. 62026 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesotaen.wikipedia.org
  7. 7Stauber Votes Against Democrats’ Barbaric Abortion on Demand Until Birth Act | Representative Pete Stauberstauber.house.gov
  8. 8Pete Stauber — Voting Record — Your Rep's Recordyourreprecord.org

6. How do historical vote margins and fundraising totals in MN-08 since 2022 support its 'Solid Republican' rating from analysts like The Cook Political Report?

2024 Stauber Win Margin16 points [1][2]
2022 Stauber Win Margin14.4 points [3][2]
Cook PVIR+7 (2026) [2][4]
Incumbent Pete Stauber's consistent double-digit victories affirm MN-08's Republican strength. Republican incumbent Pete Stauber has demonstrated robust electoral success in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, validating its 'Solid Republican' rating. In the 2024 election, Stauber secured 57.99% of the vote (244,498 ballots) compared to his Democratic opponent, Schultz, who received 41.92% (176,724 ballots), resulting in an approximate 16-point victory margin [1][2]. This followed a similarly decisive win in the 2022 MN-08 election, where Stauber garnered 57.2% (188,755 votes) against Schultz's 42.8% (141,009 votes), marking a margin of roughly 14.4 points [3][2].
Stauber's significant fundraising advantage further reinforces the district's Republican lean. Beyond electoral success, Stauber consistently exhibited stronger fundraising capabilities across both election cycles. In 2024, Stauber's total fundraising surpassed $1.6 million, while Schultz raised over $750,000 [5]. For the 2022 cycle, Stauber's fundraising exceeded $2 million, substantially more than Schultz's total of under $530,000 [5][6]. These repeated electoral victories and financial advantages collectively bolster The Cook Political Report's 'Solid R' rating for MN-08 for 2026, with Pete Stauber as the incumbent, and align with the district's R+7 Cook PVI [7][4][2].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Index - Election Resultselectionresults.sos.mn.gov
  2. 2Minnesota's 8th Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 32022 Minnesota U.S. House Election Results & Map | The Hutchinson Newshutchnews.com
  4. 4Minnesota MN-08 House: 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  5. 5Stauber-Schultz rematch in Minnesota’s 8th has tightenedminnpost.com
  6. 6Northern Minnesota congressional race reflects changing political makeupwww2.startribune.com
  7. 7Fundraising in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com

7. How do the mid-year 2026 campaign finance reports for Pete Stauber and Trina Swanson compare in terms of total fundraising and cash-on-hand?

Stauber Quarterly Raise$251,069 (53.23% from individuals) [1]
Stauber Cash On Hand (Dec 2024)$931,475 (Quiver Quantitative) or $528,494 (ProPublica/FEC) [1][2]
Swanson Primary Fundraising StatusLeads Democratic primary fundraising (April 26, 2026 report) [3]
Mid-year 2026 campaign finance reports are not yet available. As of May 8, 2026, the specific mid-year 2026 campaign finance reports for Pete Stauber and Trina Swanson have not been released, making a direct comparison of their total fundraising and cash-on-hand for this period currently impossible [4][5]. These official filings are anticipated to be due in July 2026 [4][5].
Pete Stauber's prior fundraising totals provide some financial context. For Pete Stauber, a recent quarterly fundraising total was $251,069, with 53.23% derived from individual contributions [1]. His reported cash on hand as of December 2024 varied between $931,475 according to Quiver Quantitative and $528,494 as reported by ProPublica/FEC [1][2]. Additionally, a cycle total of approximately $2.3 million was attributed to Stauber by WhoFundsCongress, though this figure likely pertains to an earlier election cycle [6]. These available figures represent earlier periods and do not constitute part of the mid-year 2026 reports [1][2][6].
Trina Swanson reportedly leads Democratic primary fundraising, but specific figures are pending. Trina Swanson is reported to lead Democratic primary fundraising, according to an April 26, 2026 report [3]. However, specific dollar figures detailing the extent of this lead were not provided within that particular report [3]. Earlier financial data from December 31, 2025, indicated $0 in receipts for Swanson, as reported by FEC/Ballotpedia [7]. Similar to Stauber, specific total fundraising or cash-on-hand figures from Swanson's mid-year 2026 reports have not yet been made public [7][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Fundraising in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com
  2. 2Pete Stauber For Congress 2024 cycle | FEC Itemizer - ProPublicaprojects.propublica.org
  3. 3Democratic candidate Trina Swanson leads fundraising in crowded primary racenorthernnewsnow.com
  4. 4PETE STAUBER FOR CONGRESS - committee overview | FECfec.gov
  5. 5SWANSON, TRINA - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
  6. 6STAUBER, PETER ALLEN - Campaign Finance | Who Funds Congresswhofundscongress.com
  7. 7Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2026 (August 11 Democratic primary)ballotpedia.org

8. Is there any public, non-partisan polling available for the 2026 Minnesota's 8th District general election matchup between Stauber and Swanson?

Incumbent's Previous Win Margin58% in 2024 (Pete Stauber) [1][2]
District Cook PVIR+7 [1]
Polymarket Prediction (early 2026)Republicans at 71-72% chance of winning [3][4]
There are no public, non-partisan polls for the 2026 MN-08 election. Currently, no public, non-partisan head-to-head polls are available for the 2026 Minnesota's 8th District general election matchup between Republican incumbent Pete Stauber and Democratic challenger Trina Swanson [5][6][7][8]. While statewide polls for Minnesota exist, they do not offer specific data for this particular district race [5][6][7][8].
The district exhibits a Republican lean, and candidates have secured endorsements. Republican incumbent Pete Stauber won his 2024 election with 58% of the vote [1][2]. Minnesota's 8th District has a Cook PVI of R+7, indicating a Republican leaning [1]. Trina Swanson secured the DFL endorsement on May 2, 2026, achieving over 70% first-ballot support against other Democratic candidates [9][10].
Market predictions suggest a strong Republican advantage in this race. Despite the absence of direct traditional polling data, the Polymarket platform indicated in early 2026 that Republicans had a 71-72% chance of winning the MN-08 seat [3][4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Minnesota MN-08 House: 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  2. 2Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2026 (August 11 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3MN-08 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketbase.polymarket.com
  4. 4MN-08 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results: No clear leaders in U.S. Senate field - KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness Newskstp.com
  6. 6KSTP/SurveyUSA: Klobuchar leads all GOP candidates by double digits - KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness Newskstp.com
  7. 7Minnesota 2026 Poll: Democrats Lead GOP as Voters Cite Threats to Democracy - Emerson Pollingemersoncollegepolling.com
  8. 82026 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesotaen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9Swanson wins 8th District DFL endorsement - WDIO.comwdio.com
  10. 10Swanson wins DFL endorsement in congressional race - Duluth News Tribune | News, weather, and sports from Duluth, Minnesotaduluthnewstribune.com

9. What do early 2026 spending reports from the DCCC and NRCC reveal about the national parties' prioritization of the MN-08 race?

DCCC 'Districts in Play' for 2026Includes MN-01, not MN-08 [1][2]
DCCC Frontline 2026 ListMN-08 absent [3][4][5]
NRCC Q1 2026 Overall Spending$89.8 million [6]
Early 2026 spending reports and program lists reveal a lack of prioritization for the MN-08 race by both national parties. The DCCC has not prioritized MN-08 in its early 2026 strategies. As of May 2026, no evidence of DCCC spending, targeting, or prioritization for MN-08 was found in early 2026 FEC data or press releases [7][8][9]. The DCCC's 'Districts in Play' for 2026 explicitly includes MN-01 but does not mention MN-08 [1][2]. Furthermore, MN-08, which is likely held by Republican Pete Stauber, is absent from the DCCC Frontline 2026 list, a program designed to support 26 vulnerable Democratic incumbents [3][4][5].
The NRCC's early 2026 spending reports show no specific focus on MN-08. For Q1 2026, the NRCC reported overall spending of $89.8 million, including $293,000 in party-coordinated expenditures and $0 in independent expenditures [6]. However, these figures do not provide specific details related to MN-08. The available information does not offer further details regarding the NRCC's spending, targeting, or prioritization specific to the MN-08 race in early 2026.
Sources (9)
  1. 1DCCC Adds MN-01 To Districts In Play As Democrats Further Expand Battlefield for 2026 Midterms - DCCCdccc.org
  2. 2DCCC Announces 2026 Districts in Play - DCCCdccc.org
  3. 3DCCC Announces Members of 2026 Frontline program - DCCCdccc.org
  4. 42026 Frontline Incumbents - DCCCdccc.org
  5. 5DCCC Names 20 New Dem Members to Frontline List for 2026 Cycle — NewDem Action Fundnewdemactionfund.com
  6. 6NRCC - committee overview | FECfec.gov
  7. 72026 Election United States House - Minnesota - District 08 | FECfec.gov
  8. 8Minnesota District 08 – Minnesota – Industries - OpenSecretsopensecrets.org
  9. 9Political Ad Spending 2026: Democrats Outspend in Competitive Districts, Super PAC Landscape | USPollingData | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Stauber was re-elected in 2024 with all votes counted, continuing a trend of growing margins in his re-elections [1][2]. In 2022, Stauber secured 56.02% of the vote compared to Jen Schultz's 43.88%, a margin of 12.14 percentage points [3]. The district was identified as "Safe R" in 2024, with a projected House margin of R+16.1 and a Presidential margin of R+17.7 [4]. His 2024 re-election represented a margin of 16.07 percentage points [5].
Potential changes in market probability could arise from special elections. Special elections in Minnesota can be held on specific uniform election dates throughout the year [6], which include February 9, 2027 [6], April 13, 2027 [6], May 11, 2027 [6], August 10, 2027 [6], and November 2, 2027 [6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2washingtonpost.com
  3. 3fox9.com
  4. 4akashicedge.com
  5. 5mn.govelectionresults.sos.mn.gov
  6. 6mn.govsos.mn.gov