Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Republicans will win Indiana's 2nd District by 10 or more points, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market experienced a dramatic and rapid upward trend. The price began at a low of 1.0% on May 5, 2026, and then surged to 90.0% just two days later. This significant price spike appears to be a direct reaction to the primary election results on May 5, when the incumbent, Rudy Yakym, secured the Republican nomination unopposed. The clarification of the general election matchup, with Yakym as the confirmed Republican candidate, seems to have caused traders to rapidly re-evaluate the likely margin of victory, leading to the sharp increase in probability.
Since reaching the 90.0% level, the price has remained stable, suggesting this point has become a strong level of support and reflects a new market consensus. The total volume of 1,477 contracts indicates a moderate level of trading activity over the life of the market, though the sample data shows very low volume around the time of the price jump, which could suggest the shift was caused by a few decisive trades or a market re-pricing rather than broad participation. Overall, the chart indicates a very high degree of market confidence in a specific outcome. The sustained price at 90.0% demonstrates a strong and settled belief among participants about the eventual margin of victory in Indiana's 2nd District.
  • Incumbent Rudy Yakym won the 2024 election by a 28.3-point margin.
  • The district consistently maintains a 'Solid Republican' rating from outlets.
  • Rudy Yakym significantly out-raised challenger Jamee Decio for the 2026 cycle.
  • No significant national Democratic group support appears indicated for Decio.
  • A Democratic primary for challengers is set for May 5, 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Republicans, 10+ pts 90.0% 93.0% Incumbent Yakym won the 2024 election by 28.3 points in a 'Solid Republican' district.
Republicans, 13+ pts 0.0% 20.0% Incumbent Yakym won the 2024 election by 28.3 points in a 'Solid Republican' district.
Republicans, 16+ pts 0.0% 20.0% Incumbent Yakym won the 2024 election by 28.3 points in a 'Solid Republican' district.
Republicans, 19+ pts 0.0% 20.0% Incumbent Yakym won the 2024 election by 28.3 points in a 'Solid Republican' district.
Republicans, 22+ pts 0.0% 20.0% Incumbent Yakym won the 2024 election by 28.3 points in a 'Solid Republican' district.

Current Context

Yakym and Decio secured nominations for Indiana's 2nd District. On May 5, 2026, incumbent Republican Rudy Yakym ran unopposed in the primary election for Indiana's 2nd Congressional District [1][2][3][4]. On the Democratic side, Jamee Decio secured the nomination, defeating Shaun Maeyens with 71% of the vote to Maeyens's 29% [1][2][3][4]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [5][6]. The district exhibits a strong Republican lean, indicated by its Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+13 [5]. This lean was evident in the 2024 presidential election, where Donald Trump won 62% to 36% [5]. Similarly, in the 2024 House election, incumbent Yakym achieved a significant 28.3-point victory, securing 62.7% of the vote (172,467 votes) against 34.4% (101,962 votes) for his opponent [7].
Experts and markets predict a solid Republican victory. Expert consensus uniformly rates this race as "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican," according to analyses from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball [5][6][8]. Prediction markets also reflect a strong probability of a Republican win, with Polymarket indicating a 91-92% chance for the Republican candidate in IN-02 [9][10]. The Kalshi market offers specific odds for the Republican margin of victory, including scenarios over 22 points [11]. Financially, Yakym holds a significant advantage, possessing $1.49 million in cash on hand, while Decio's campaign reports $5,900 [12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1U.S. Representative Jefferson Shreve Narrowly Prevails Against Primary Challengercriticalreport.substack.com
  2. 2Two Democrats run for 2nd Congressional District, Republican unopposedwsbt.com
  3. 3Sen. J.D. Ford wins 7-person primary, looks to flip 5th Districtindystar.com
  4. 4Indiana incumbents fend off primary election challengers in congressional races | Journal Reviewjournalreview.com
  5. 5Indiana's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Indiana's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Indiana's 2nd congressional district - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  8. 82026 United States House of Representatives elections in Indianaen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9IN-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  10. 10IN-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  11. 11Indiana's 2nd District margin of victory Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  12. 12Fundraising in Indiana's 2nd Congressional District | Quiver Quantitativequiverquant.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Indiana's 2nd District by 22 percentage points or more. It resolves to No if they win by less than 22 percentage points, tie, or lose. The margin is calculated as the Republican Party's vote percentage minus the closest opponent's, with no rounding, and verified by the official election authority. The market opened on May 5, 2026, and closes early upon certified results or by November 3, 2027, with payout 30 minutes after closing.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Republicans, 10+ pts $0.90 $0.11 90%
Republicans, 13+ pts $0.79 $0.22 0%
Republicans, 16+ pts $0.68 $0.33 0%
Republicans, 19+ pts $0.59 $0.42 0%
Republicans, 22+ pts $0.49 $0.52 0%
Republicans, 25+ pts $0.38 $0.63 0%
Republicans, 28+ pts $0.28 $0.73 0%
Republicans, 31+ pts $0.19 $0.82 0%
Republicans, 34+ pts $0.11 $0.90 0%

Market Discussion

The 2026 election for Indiana's 2nd Congressional District is anticipated to result in a significant Republican victory, with political forecasting outlets uniformly rating it as a "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican" seat, supported by an R+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index [1]. Prediction markets suggest a high probability of Republican incumbent Rudy Yakym, who ran unopposed in his primary, winning by a substantial margin against Democratic nominee Jamee Decio, who secured her primary with over 70% of the vote [2]. For example, there is a 58% chance of a Republican victory by 19 percentage points or more, and a 48% probability of a win by 22 percentage points or more [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1abc57.com
  2. 2kalshi.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 77 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score89Strong
Trade quality20% of score32High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score77Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Yakym, 31+ pts” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
53Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

5 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Yakym, 31+ pts44
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Yakym, 28+ pts53
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Yakym, 25+ pts55
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Yakym, 10+ pts—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Yakym, 34+ pts—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
69Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

5 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Yakym, 34+ pts51
Mixed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Yakym, 31+ pts66
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Yakym, 25+ pts75
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Yakym, 10+ pts—
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Yakym, 28+ pts—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

5 contracts · worst first · 4 below the volume floor — not scored

Yakym, 10+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Yakym, 25+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Yakym, 28+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Yakym, 31+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Yakym, 34+ pts100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
32High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 40 (notional-weighted across 3 scored legs)

$100 order: 3.6c slippage (~4% of a 86.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

4 below the volume floor — not scored

Yakym, 10+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Yakym, 25+ pts40Market scoreLiquidity55Move quality75Rule clarity100
Why 40
Liquidity
55 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
75 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Yakym, 28+ pts40Market scoreLiquidity53Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 40
Liquidity
53 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Yakym, 31+ pts40Market scoreLiquidity44Move quality66Rule clarity100
Why 40
Liquidity
44 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
66 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Yakym, 34+ pts–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality51Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
51 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 22, 2026

5. How did Rudy Yakym's 28.3-point margin of victory in the 2024 general election compare to Donald Trump's performance in the district that same year?

Yakym 2024 election margin28.1 points [1]
Yakym 2024 vote share62.7% [1]
Camp 2024 vote share34.6% [1]
Rudy Yakym secured a significant victory in the 2024 Indiana's 2nd Congressional District election. He won the general election by a margin of approximately 28.1 points over his opponent, Camp. Yakym's total vote share was 62.7%, while Camp received 34.6% of the votes cast [1].
Trump's district performance cannot be directly compared to Yakym's. A direct comparison between Yakym's electoral performance and Donald Trump's 2024 presidential vote margin specifically within Indiana's 2nd District is currently not feasible. This is due to the absence of available sources providing Donald Trump's 2024 presidential vote margin for this particular congressional district [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Indiana's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

6. What historical election data and demographic trends in Indiana's 2nd District underpin its 'Safe Republican' rating from outlets like the Cook Political Report?

Cook Political Report RatingSafe Republican (Cook Political Report [1][2][3])
Cook Partisan Voter IndexR+13 (2025 PVI cycle [1][2][3])
2024 Election Marginapprox. 28.1 percentage points (Yakym vs. Camp [4][5])
Indiana's 2nd District consistently maintains a 'Safe Republican' rating. This classification comes from outlets such as the Cook Political Report, which assigns a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+13 for the 2025 PVI cycle [1][2][3]. Ballotpedia further reinforces this assessment, reporting ratings of Solid Republican and Safe Republican for the 2026 race [1][2][3]. This strong Republican advantage is consistently underpinned by historical election outcomes and specific demographic trends within the district [1][2][3][6][7][8][9].
Recent election results demonstrate consistent Republican dominance in the district. Historical House general election margins since 2016 consistently show significant Republican strength. Representative Walorski achieved victories by approximately 22.3 points in 2016, 9.6 points in 2018, and 23.0 points in 2020 [6][7]. Continuing this trend, Representative Yakym secured the 2022 regular election with a margin of approximately 32.2 points [6][7]. In the 2024 general election, Yakym received 62.7% of the vote against Camp's 34.6%, reflecting a margin of approximately 28.1 percentage points [4][5].
Key demographic characteristics reinforce the district's Republican leanings. The district's demographic profile significantly contributes to its 'Safe Republican' classification. It features high educational attainment, with 88.5% of residents possessing a high school diploma or higher, and 25.4% holding a bachelor’s degree or higher [8][9][2]. The median household income is approximately $66,934 [8][9][2]. These attributes are indicative of a socially and economically established, non-highly-urban electorate, rather than a rapidly diversifying metropolitan swing area [8][9][2].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Indiana's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  2. 2Indiana's 2nd congressional districten.m.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Indiana's 2nd Congressional District - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Indiana House District 2 Election 2024 Live Resultsppe.nbcnews.com
  5. 5Indiana's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Indiana's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Indiana's 2nd congressional district - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  8. 8Congressional District 2, IN - Profile data - Census Reportercensusreporter.org
  9. 9Congressional District 2, IN | Data USAdatausa.io

7. Is there any indication of significant spending or campaign support for Jamee Decio from national Democratic groups like the DCCC for the 2026 general election?

Candidate StatusDemocratic nominee for Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District (November 2026 general election) [1]
DCCC Spending for Jamee DecioNo clear transaction-level finding of significant DCCC spending in IN-02 for Decio [2]
Decio Campaign Contributions$86,564 (as of 2026) [3]
No significant DCCC support is currently indicated for Jamee Decio. As of the available information, there is no clear evidence of substantial spending or campaign assistance from national Democratic groups, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), for Jamee Decio in the 2026 general election. While Jamee Decio has been confirmed as the Democratic nominee for Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District [1], a review of the FEC candidate overview for "DECIO, JAMEE MS." does not reveal transaction-level findings of significant DCCC spending on her behalf in the IN-02 general election [2].
DCCC's public target lists omit Indiana's 2nd Congressional District. Furthermore, retrieved DCCC announcements for their 2026 "Red to Blue," "Frontline," and "Districts in Play" programs, which outline where the committee intends to allocate resources, did not provide specific links to Indiana's 2nd Congressional District or Jamee Decio in the content surfaced by this research [4][5][6].
Decio's campaign finances do not reflect national group support. Third-party data from Ballotpedia shows Jamee Decio has disclosed federal campaign contributions totaling $86,564 and expenditures amounting to $80,639 for 2026 [3]. It is important to note that these figures represent her own campaign's financial activities and do not indicate independent spending or coordinated support from the DCCC in the general election [3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Jamee Decio wins Democratic nomination for Indiana’s 2nd Congressional Districtwndu.com
  2. 2DECIO, JAMEE MS. - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
  3. 3Jamee Decio - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4DCCC Announces Second Expansion of the House Battlefield for 2026 Cycle with 5 New Offensive Targets - DCCCdccc.org
  5. 52026 Frontline Incumbents - DCCCdccc.org
  6. 6DCCC adds five House seats to its midterm target list - Roll Callrollcall.com

8. Based on 2026 primary results, what does Jamee Decio's vote total suggest about Democratic base enthusiasm compared to the 2024 cycle?

Decio's 2024 Primary VotesOver 18,000 votes [1]
Decio's 2024 Primary Vote Share70.56% (with 99% counted) [1][2]
Camp's 2024 Primary StatusUnopposed [3]
Jamee Decio secured a strong victory in her 2024 primary race. She received over 18,000 votes, successfully defeating her opponent, Shaun Michael Maeyens, who garnered over 7,000 votes [1]. With 99% of the votes counted, Decio's commanding performance resulted in a 70.56% vote share [1][2].
However, no 2026 primary data exists to assess Democratic enthusiasm. The available research focuses exclusively on the 2024 election cycle and does not provide any information regarding Jamee Decio's 2026 primary results. Additionally, a comparable contested primary scenario from 2024 is unavailable for analysis, as another candidate, Camp, was unopposed in the May 2024 primary [3]. Consequently, based solely on the provided information, it is not possible to determine what Decio's 2026 vote total suggests about Democratic base enthusiasm compared to the 2024 cycle.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Current time information in United States of America.google.com
  2. 2ballotpedia.org
  3. 3abc57.com

9. How do incumbent Rudy Yakym's and challenger Jamee Decio's fundraising totals for the 2026 cycle compare as of the latest FEC filing?

Rudy Yakym Total Raised$2,943,661 (as of December 31, 2025) [1]
Jamee Decio Total Raised$86,563 (as of December 31, 2025) [1]
Rudy Yakym Cash on Hand$1,494,844 (as of December 31, 2025) [1]
Incumbent Rudy Yakym significantly out-raised challenger Jamee Decio for the 2026 cycle. According to the latest FEC filings, Yakym's fundraising efforts significantly exceeded those of challenger Jamee Decio. By December 31, 2025, Yakym had accumulated $2,943,661 in total receipts for the 2026 cycle. His fourth-quarter FEC disclosure, filed on January 31, 2026, reported $548,300 in new fundraising during that period and a substantial $1,494,844 in cash on hand as of December 31, 2025 [2].
In contrast, Jamee Decio's fundraising totals were considerably lower. As of December 31, 2025, Decio had raised a total of $86,563 and reported only $5,924 in cash on hand. These figures represent her total receipts for the period spanning from July 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [1].
Sources (2)
  1. 1dailyjournal.net
  2. 2quiverquant.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

A nearer-term catalyst for the general-election matchup is the May 5, 2026 Democratic primary [1]. Two Democrats, Jamee Decio and Shaun Maeyens, competed for the right to challenge Rudy Yakym, who was running unopposed in the Republican primary [1]. The primary filing deadline for this cycle was Feb 6, 2026 [2]. The Indiana 2nd Congressional District (IN-02) House race ’s general election is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 [3][4][2].
Polymarket ’s IN-02 “House Election Winner ” market currently assigns approximately 92% probability to the Republican Party and approximately 9% to the Democratic Party, with the market resolving around Nov 3, 2026 [5]. Structural information indicates the district is a Cook PVI R+13 seat, where Rudy Yakym won 63% compared to a Democrat ’s 35% in 2024, implying consensus odds around approximately 91% Republican [6]. The main local “bearish ” pathway for Republicans, which could see Democrats make inroads, would be a late campaign surge or a Yakym-specific scandal [6]. These are listed as realistic challenges to the incumbency and dominance baseline [6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (6)
  1. 1Two Democrats are vying to challenge Republican Rudy Yakym to represent Michiana in Indiana's 2nd Congressional Districtwfyi.org
  2. 2https://www.in.gov/sos/elections/files/2026-Candidate-Guide.FINAL.pdfin.gov
  3. 3Indiana's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4https://www.in.gov/sos/elections/files/2026-Calendar-Brochure.FINAL-VERSION.pdfin.gov
  5. 5IN-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6IN-02 House Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com