Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect James Fishback to take 2nd place in the Florida Republican governor primary, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Byron Donalds' strong Q1 2026 fundraising and endorsements suggest 1st place viability.
  • Paul Renner's Q1 2026 fundraising supports his plausible bid for 2nd place.
  • Jay Collins' initial Q1 fundraising came mostly from a single large donor.
  • Other candidates lack comparable fundraising, endorsements, or established campaign viability.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Jay Collins 19.0% 24.9% Jay Collins' strong Q1 2026 fundraising of nearly $1.75 million demonstrates financial viability, positioning him competitively.
James Fishback 50.0% 58.8% James Fishback is a strong contender, indicating a competitive campaign and ability to secure voter support.
Casey DeSantis 4.0% 4.7% Casey DeSantis has not announced a candidacy or campaign activity, indicating a low likelihood of securing 2nd place.
Paul Renner 2.0% 3.6% Paul Renner's $800,000 Q1 fundraising and structured campaign make him a plausible 2nd place candidate.
Byron Donalds 10.0% 8.0% Byron Donalds' $22 million Q1 fundraising and 19 endorsements make him a strong contender for 1st place.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market, which predicts the second-place finisher in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, has experienced extreme volatility since its inception. The overall trend is upward, moving from a starting price of 1.0% to its current level of 19.0%. However, this trend is defined by a massive price spike on April 15, when the probability jumped 35 percentage points from 1.0% to 36.0% in a single day. This was followed by a peak at 38.0% before a significant correction occurred, including a 9.0 point drop on April 25. The chart does not provide specific news or external events to explain this sudden, dramatic re-evaluation by traders.
The price action suggests a highly speculative and reactive market. The initial peak around 38.0% has established a clear resistance level that the market has since pulled back from. The current price of 19.0% may be forming a new support area after the recent decline. The total volume of 2,758 contracts indicates a moderate level of interest, but the sample data points show zero volume on days with significant price changes. This pattern could suggest that the volatility is driven by a small number of influential trades rather than broad market participation, indicating a low level of conviction behind the price movements.
Overall market sentiment shifted dramatically in mid-April, pricing in a substantial probability for a specific outcome after previously considering it a near-impossibility. The subsequent decline from the peak suggests that the initial optimism has been tempered, and the market is now attempting to find a stable price point. The sentiment remains uncertain, having corrected significantly from its high but still trading far above its starting level. The market is pricing in a roughly one-in-five chance for this outcome, reflecting a notable but still tentative belief.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Casey DeSantis

📉 April 28, 2026: 45.0pp drop

Price decreased from 49.0% to 4.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Jay Collins

📉 April 25, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 32.0% to 23.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: James Fishback

📈 April 15, 2026: 46.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 47.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

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Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if James Fishback finishes 2nd in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, as verified by certified results from the Florida Department of State. A NO resolution occurs if he does not, if a write-in candidate achieves 2nd place (unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists), or if the election is cancelled or postponed past August 18, 2027. In the event of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally based on the number of tied entities.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
James Fishback $0.50 $0.51 50%
Jay Collins $0.19 $0.82 19%
Byron Donalds $0.15 $0.90 10%
Casey DeSantis $0.10 $0.92 4%
Paul Renner $0.05 $0.96 2%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. What Were Non-DeSantis Candidate Donations Through Q4 2025?

Jay Collins Q1 2026 FundraisingNearly $1.75 million [^]
Byron Donalds Q1 2026 FundraisingRecord $22 million [^]
Paul Renner Q1 2026 FundraisingRoughly $800,000 [^]
Specific donor data for 2025 is currently unavailable. The research could not identify the non-DeSantis candidate receiving the highest average donation from individuals who contributed over $1,000 to Ron DeSantis's 2022 gubernatorial campaign, based on Florida Division of Elections reports filed through Q4 2025 [^]. The provided sources primarily detail candidate fundraising activities for Q1 2026, falling outside the specified Q4 2025 filing period.
First-quarter 2026 fundraising shows varying results for other candidates. Although the requested Q4 2025 data is absent, the research highlights Q1 2026 fundraising activities. Jay Collins raised nearly $1.75 million in his first quarter, with a single donor contributing over $875,000, which accounts for more than half of that total [^]. Byron Donalds reported a record $22 million quarter for 2026, leading overall fundraising for that period [^]. Additionally, Paul Renner raised approximately $800,000 in Q1 2026 [^].

6. How Many Public Endorsements Do Byron Donalds And Paul Renner Have?

Total Endorsements for Byron Donalds19 [^]
Donalds' Congressional Endorsements16 [^]
Public Endorsements for Paul Renner0 [^]
Byron Donalds has publicly secured a total of 19 endorsements from specified groups. This total includes 16 endorsements from members of Florida's 2022-2024 Republican congressional delegation and 3 from elected Republican members of the Florida Cabinet [^]. The congressional endorsers comprise U.S. Reps. Gus Bilirakis, Daniel Webster, Laurel Lee, Michael Waltz, Neal Dunn, Cory Mills, Anna Paulina Luna, Bill Posey, Aaron Bean, John Rutherford, Carlos Giménez, Scott Franklin, Greg Steube, Vern Buchanan, Brian Mast, and Mario Díaz-Balart. Among the Florida Cabinet members who have endorsed Donalds are Attorney General Ashley Moody, Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, and former Commissioner of Agriculture Wilton Simpson [^]. Some endorsement mentions for Donalds reach April 2025 in certain sources, with current listings also on his campaign website [^].
Paul Renner currently lacks documented public endorsements from the specified groups. The provided web research results do not contain any information regarding public endorsements for Paul Renner from either Florida's 2022-2024 Republican congressional delegation or the elected Republican members of the Florida Cabinet [^]. Therefore, based solely on the current information presented, Byron Donalds has documented endorsements from the specified groups, whereas no such endorsements for Paul Renner are detailed.

7. Which Candidates Appeared on Fox News, Newsmax Primetime (Jan-May 2026)?

Direct Primetime AppearancesNo direct data for any candidate (Jan-May 2026) [^]
Byron Donalds Fox-Affiliated MediaFeatured on "Fox Across America" Jan 12, 2026 [^]
Byron Donalds Newsmax CoverageNewsmax.com published article Dec 1, 2025 [^]
Direct monitoring data for primetime appearances is currently unavailable. Research did not identify direct data from TV monitoring services confirming specific guest appearances on the primetime shows (7 PM - 11 PM ET) of Fox News Channel and Newsmax for any candidate between January 1, 2026, and May 31, 2026. The available sources primarily consist of polling data, news articles, and local media mentions, rather than a log of national primetime television appearances.
Byron Donalds shows notable engagement with relevant media platforms. Donalds is highlighted as a prominent candidate in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary [^]. His engagement includes Fox-affiliated and Newsmax media platforms immediately preceding or within the specified timeframe. For instance, Donalds was featured on "Fox Across America," a Fox-affiliated radio program, on January 12, 2026 [^]. Additionally, Newsmax.com published an article on December 1, 2025, discussing Representative Donalds potentially facing a tough primary, suggesting the network's interest in his profile leading into the period [^].
Other candidates lack similar national media mentions. While other candidates, such as Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and Paul Renner, are mentioned in polling and local news contexts [^], the provided sources do not include specific mentions of their guest appearances or detailed coverage on the national Fox News Channel or Newsmax networks during relevant primetime hours. Therefore, based on the available information, Donalds exhibits the most visibility within these specific media ecosystems, despite the absence of direct evidence for primetime TV appearances for any candidate [^].

8. How Do Renner and Donalds Compare in Q1 2026 Local Donations?

Donalds' Local Donation %35% (Q1 2026) [^]
Renner's Local Donation %15% (Q1 2026) [^]
Donalds' Total Q1 2026 Raised$22 million [^]
Byron Donalds received significant Q1 2026 individual donations from his core media market. His gubernatorial campaign committee and political committee collectively raised a total of $22 million in the first quarter of 2026 [^]. Of this amount, approximately $7.7 million came from individual donors residing within Collier and Lee counties, which are the core counties of the Ft. Myers-Naples DMA [^]. This means 35% of Donalds' total Q1 2026 individual donations originated from his primary media market [^].
Paul Renner attracted fewer individual donations from his primary media market. Renner's campaign raised roughly $800,000 during the first quarter of 2026 [^]. From this total, $120,000 was sourced from individual donors in Duval, St. Johns, and Clay counties, which constitute the primary counties of the Jacksonville DMA [^]. As a result, 15% of Renner's total Q1 2026 individual donations were from within his core media market [^].
Paul Renner shows a lower percentage of local individual donations. Compared to Byron Donalds, who received 35% of his total Q1 2026 individual donations from his primary media market, Paul Renner demonstrates a significantly lower percentage of 15% from counties within his core media market [^].

9. Do Florida Republican Gubernatorial Campaigns Share Key Staff or Firms?

Shared Campaign Staff/FirmsNone identified (public disclosures as of June 1, 2026) [^]
Paul Renner Key StaffHeath Rygelski (campaign manager), Sarah Rumpf (communications director), Ryan Tyson (lead consultant/pollster) [^]
Byron Donalds Fundraising (Mid-Apr 2026)$10.7 million [^]
Public disclosures show no shared staff among the campaigns by June 2026. As of June 1, 2026, public disclosures do not identify any shared key campaign staff or primary political consulting firms among the campaigns of Donalds, Renner, Collins, or Fishback. The available information explicitly names key staff and a lead consultant only for the Paul Renner campaign. Specifically, Heath Rygelski is identified as Renner's campaign manager, Sarah Rumpf as communications director, and Ryan Tyson as a lead consultant and pollster [^]. Renner’s campaign also demonstrated strong fundraising, securing nearly $5.5 million in its initial four months and approximately $800,000 to commence 2026 [^], though these fundraising details do not indicate any shared personnel or consulting firms with other campaigns.
Donalds' fundraising success is noted, but staff information is absent. Information for Byron Donalds primarily focuses on his fundraising, with over $10 million raised by early April 2026, escalating to $10.7 million by mid-April 2026 [^]. Crucially, the sources do not provide details on Donalds' key campaign staff or primary political consulting firms. Similarly, no such details are provided for the campaigns of Jay Collins or James Fishback [^]. While Brett Doster is noted as a Republican political consultant, the provided research does not link him to any of the Donalds, Renner, Collins, or Fishback campaigns [^].

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis unavailable.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 18, 2027
  • Closes: August 18, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.

13. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.