Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Byron Donalds' strong Q1 2026 fundraising and endorsements suggest 1st place viability.
- Paul Renner's Q1 2026 fundraising supports his plausible bid for 2nd place.
- Jay Collins' initial Q1 fundraising came mostly from a single large donor.
- Other candidates lack comparable fundraising, endorsements, or established campaign viability.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Collins | 19.0% | 24.9% | Jay Collins' strong Q1 2026 fundraising of nearly $1.75 million demonstrates financial viability, positioning him competitively. |
| James Fishback | 50.0% | 58.8% | James Fishback is a strong contender, indicating a competitive campaign and ability to secure voter support. |
| Casey DeSantis | 4.0% | 4.7% | Casey DeSantis has not announced a candidacy or campaign activity, indicating a low likelihood of securing 2nd place. |
| Paul Renner | 2.0% | 3.6% | Paul Renner's $800,000 Q1 fundraising and structured campaign make him a plausible 2nd place candidate. |
| Byron Donalds | 10.0% | 8.0% | Byron Donalds' $22 million Q1 fundraising and 19 endorsements make him a strong contender for 1st place. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Casey DeSantis
📉 April 28, 2026: 45.0pp drop
Price decreased from 49.0% to 4.0%
Outcome: Jay Collins
📉 April 25, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 32.0% to 23.0%
Outcome: James Fishback
📈 April 15, 2026: 46.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 47.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if James Fishback finishes 2nd in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, as verified by certified results from the Florida Department of State. A NO resolution occurs if he does not, if a write-in candidate achieves 2nd place (unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists), or if the election is cancelled or postponed past August 18, 2027. In the event of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally based on the number of tied entities.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Fishback | $0.50 | $0.51 | 50% |
| Jay Collins | $0.19 | $0.82 | 19% |
| Byron Donalds | $0.15 | $0.90 | 10% |
| Casey DeSantis | $0.10 | $0.92 | 4% |
| Paul Renner | $0.05 | $0.96 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Were Non-DeSantis Candidate Donations Through Q4 2025?
| Jay Collins Q1 2026 Fundraising | Nearly $1.75 million [^] |
|---|---|
| Byron Donalds Q1 2026 Fundraising | Record $22 million [^] |
| Paul Renner Q1 2026 Fundraising | Roughly $800,000 [^] |
6. How Many Public Endorsements Do Byron Donalds And Paul Renner Have?
| Total Endorsements for Byron Donalds | 19 [^] |
|---|---|
| Donalds' Congressional Endorsements | 16 [^] |
| Public Endorsements for Paul Renner | 0 [^] |
7. Which Candidates Appeared on Fox News, Newsmax Primetime (Jan-May 2026)?
| Direct Primetime Appearances | No direct data for any candidate (Jan-May 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Byron Donalds Fox-Affiliated Media | Featured on "Fox Across America" Jan 12, 2026 [^] |
| Byron Donalds Newsmax Coverage | Newsmax.com published article Dec 1, 2025 [^] |
8. How Do Renner and Donalds Compare in Q1 2026 Local Donations?
| Donalds' Local Donation % | 35% (Q1 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Renner's Local Donation % | 15% (Q1 2026) [^] |
| Donalds' Total Q1 2026 Raised | $22 million [^] |
9. Do Florida Republican Gubernatorial Campaigns Share Key Staff or Firms?
| Shared Campaign Staff/Firms | None identified (public disclosures as of June 1, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Paul Renner Key Staff | Heath Rygelski (campaign manager), Sarah Rumpf (communications director), Ryan Tyson (lead consultant/pollster) [^] |
| Byron Donalds Fundraising (Mid-Apr 2026) | $10.7 million [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 18, 2027
- Closes: August 18, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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