Bitcoin price range on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

The implied Federal Funds Rate for April 2026 is determined by analyzing the Three-Month SOFR futures curve. Specifically, the contract expiring in April 2026 (SR3J2026 or SQJ26) is used to gauge market expectations ^{[^]}. The futures price indicates the market's anticipated average 3-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) during the contract's expiry period. To calculate the implied SOFR rate, one subtracts the futures contract price from 100; for instance, a futures price of 95.500 implies a 4.500% SOFR rate ^{[^]}. This implied SOFR rate serves as a close proxy for the market's expected effective Federal Funds Rate, requiring live market data from sources like CME Group for the precise current price ^{[^]}.

Research examines Bitcoin's performance after Federal Reserve easing cycles. Studies have explored Bitcoin's historical price performance in the 12 months following a sustained pivot by the Federal Reserve to an easing cycle involving at least 100 basis points of rate cuts. Analyses by Oreate AI Blog and SilverCryptoAnalytics specifically investigate past instances of significant Fed rate cuts and their subsequent impact on Bitcoin's market behavior ^{[^]}. These studies typically assess whether such monetary policy shifts have historically led to periods of appreciation, depreciation, or stability for Bitcoin over a 12-month horizon. While these sources confirm the existence of such research, the detailed historical data points and specific statistical outcomes are not explicitly provided within the current findings ^{[^]}.

By the end of Q4 2025, only one top wealth management firm offered direct Bitcoin buying. Specifically, one of the top 10 global wealth management firms officially confirmed, via company announcements or major financial news outlets, the integration of direct Bitcoin buying and selling for its high-net-worth clients. This firm was JPMorgan Chase & Co., which announced on May 19, 2025, that it would allow clients to purchase Bitcoin, aligning this service within the Q4 2025 timeframe ^{[^]}.

Other leading firms missed the deadline or offered indirect access. For instance, institutions like UBS and Morgan Stanley had plans to offer cryptocurrency trading, but their services were reported to be available in 2026, thus missing the Q4 2025 deadline ^{[^]}. Additionally, Bank of America expanded crypto access for its wealth management clients; however, this expansion encompassed Bitcoin ETFs for brokerage clients. This allowed advisors to recommend Bitcoin allocation through wrapped products, rather than offering direct spot Bitcoin buying or selling, which was the specific criterion for this assessment ^{[^]}.

Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score did not exceed the 6.0 threshold in 2025. Based on available web research, there is no information indicating that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score surpassed the 6.0 'overheated' threshold for more than four consecutive weeks at any point in 2025. This threshold has historically signaled the final phase of a bull market peak prior to a major correction. The provided sources do not contain specific historical data for 2025 that would confirm such an occurrence.

Evidence suggests the MVRV Z-Score was significantly lower during 2025. Instead, some analyses suggest the MVRV Z-Score was in a considerably lower range throughout 2025. Discussions regarding the 2025 market often indicated the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score was approaching a "critical bottom zone," thereby signaling a potential market opportunity rather than an overheated state ^{[^]}. Furthermore, specific MVRV Z-Score values of 2.41 and 2.49 were highlighted in related discussions, both of which are significantly below the 6.0 threshold historically associated with bull market peaks ^{[^]}.

Global hash rate will continue to grow post-halving, albeit moderately. Canaan Inc., a leading mining hardware manufacturer, anticipates continued global hash rate growth into 2026, primarily driven by the deployment of new, more efficient machines ^{[^]}. This growth is expected to occur at a more moderated pace than in previous years due to increased operational costs following the halving event ^{[^]}. Broader industry consensus corroborates this, indicating that the global Bitcoin network hash rate will continue its upward trajectory throughout H2 2025 and beyond, largely propelled by the integration of next-generation, energy-efficient hardware ^{[^]}. For example, CoinShares estimated the global network hash rate could reach approximately 800 Exahashes per second (EH/s) by the end of 2025 ^{[^]}.

North American industrial-scale mining operations are projected to expand. Canaan has observed robust demand for its high-performance miners, particularly from institutional clients, and foresees North American large-scale mining operations remaining a significant market for its latest generation hardware ^{[^]}. Broader industry analyses generally predict a sustained expansion of industrial-scale mining operations in North America ^{[^]}. This is supported by factors like competitive energy prices, favorable regulatory environments, and the ability of large operations to leverage economies of scale to mitigate post-halving profitability pressures ^{[^]}. North America is positioned as a strategic hub for such activities, with ongoing infrastructure investments and a focus on renewable energy ^{[^]}.

Specific real-time data for December 2025 Bitcoin options was unavailable. The research findings did not detail the precise open interest, implied volatility smile, or the ratio of calls to puts at strike prices 50% above and 50% below the current spot price for Bitcoin options expiring in December 2025 on Deribit. While these options are recognized for their importance in assessing long-term market sentiment and hedging activity, the exact numerical values requested were not present in the provided web research results.

December 2025 expiration is crucial for long-term institutional sentiment. Deribit is a leading platform for cryptocurrency options and futures, including those for Bitcoin ^{[^]}. Bitcoin options with a December 26, 2025 expiry (BTC-26DEC25) are indeed available on Deribit ^{[^]}, and this specific expiration is considered significant for evaluating long-term institutional sentiment and hedging strategies ^{[^]}. However, the research did not provide specific, real-time data points concerning the total open interest for this expiration, nor details regarding the implied volatility smile or the precise ratio of calls to puts at the specified strike prices.

Accessing live platform data is necessary for detailed metrics. To obtain the specific open interest, implied volatility smile, and call/put ratios for Bitcoin's December 2025 options, direct access to the live data on the Deribit platform ^{[^]} or comprehensive, up-to-date options analysis reports would typically be required. The available sources primarily consisted of article titles and general discussions about various options expiries ^{[^]}, some of which pertained to different expiry dates or broader market volatility, rather than the specific metrics for Bitcoin's December 2025 options.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.