Bitcoin price on Apr 26, 2026 at 10pm EDT?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet during Q4 2025.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $56.09 billion net flow by Q1 2026.
- Mt. Gox Bitcoin distribution will continue past Q1 2026.
- Balance sheet expansion and ETF inflows generally support Bitcoin's price.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the simple average of the 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) immediately preceding 10:00 PM EDT on April 26, 2026, is above $79,299.99; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opens at 9:00 PM EDT and closes at 10:00 PM EDT on April 26, 2026, with a projected payout at 10:06 PM EDT. Resolution is based exclusively on the specified CF Benchmarks data, not other cryptocurrency price sources.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What Was the Cumulative Net Flow for Spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q1 2026?
| Cumulative Net Flow (End Q1 2026) | $56.09 billion (calculated from [^]) |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Net Outflow | $500 million [^] |
| Cumulative Net Inflows (by April 2026) | $56.51 billion [^] |
5. What is the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change Prediction for March 2026?
| Prediction for March 31, 2026 | Not available based on provided research [^] |
|---|---|
| Recent 30-day average LTH supply increase | 308,000 coins [^] |
| LTH accumulation in three months | 3.06 million BTC [^] |
6. Did the Federal Reserve Expand its Balance Sheet in Q4 2025?
| RMP Initiation Date | October 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Total Assets (December 2025) | Approximately $6.7 trillion [^] |
| Nature of Expansion | Distinct from traditional Quantitative Easing (QE) [^] |
7. Will Mt. Gox BTC Distribution Be Completed by Q1 2026?
| New Repayment Deadline | October 31, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Extension Announcement Date | October 27, 2025 [^] |
| BTC Holdings | Approximately 142,000 BTC [^] |
8. What is the highest Bitcoin call option open interest for June 2026 on Deribit?
| Highest June 2026 Call OI Strike | Not explicitly detailed (web research) [^] |
|---|---|
| Notable Strike Price Interest | $100,000 (around January 30 expiry) [^] |
| Real-time Data Sources | Deribit, Glassnode, CoinGlass [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 27, 2026
- Expiration: May 04, 2026
- Closes: April 27, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26APR2621-T86799.99: NO (Apr 27, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR2621-T86699.99: NO (Apr 27, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR2621-T86599.99: NO (Apr 27, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR2621-T86499.99: NO (Apr 27, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR2621-T86399.99: NO (Apr 27, 2026)
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