Salt Lake vs Portland
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Salt Lake's moneyline odds shortened, indicating increased betting confidence.
- Portland's key defender, Dario Zuparic, is confirmed out with injury.
- Referee Rosendo Mendoza's stats show a slightly higher home win percentage.
- Pablo Ruiz's potential absence would significantly disrupt RSL's midfield control.
- Portland's moneyline odds lengthened, indicating declining market confidence.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland | 15.0% | 12.6% | Market moneyline odds for Portland have significantly lengthened, indicating declining confidence. |
| Salt Lake | 65.0% | 67.7% | Portland's key defender, Dario Zuparic, is confirmed out due to injury. |
| Tie | 20.0% | 19.6% | Market higher by 0.4pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Salt Lake wins the MLS soccer game against Portland on May 2, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Conversely, it resolves to "No" if Salt Lake does not win under these conditions.
The market opened on April 24, 2026, and closes either after the outcome occurs or by May 16, 2026, with a projected payout one minute after closing. If the game is canceled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake | $0.66 | $0.35 | 65% |
| Tie | $0.21 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Portland | $0.16 | $0.85 | 15% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What is Cristian Arango's Current Performance and Fitness Status?
| Player Role | Prominent forward, key attacker for Real Salt Lake [^] |
|---|---|
| Specific Match Data | Not available for last 3 matches (shots on target, xG, distance covered) [^] |
| Current Fitness Status | No undisclosed reports or training observations for May 2nd game [^] |
5. How Have Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers Moneyline Odds Shifted?
6. Why Is Detailed Tactical Soccer Analysis Unavailable?
| Portland defensive stats (wide) | Unavailable for analysis [^] |
|---|---|
| RSL chance creation (wings) | Unavailable for analysis [^] |
| Missing data type | Advanced tactical metrics like 'big chances' and attack origin [^] |
7. What are the key refereeing statistics for Rosendo Mendoza?
| Home Team Win Percentage | 48.3% (Career Average) [^] |
|---|---|
| Fouls Against Away Teams | 13.9 per game (Career Average) [^] |
| Total Yellow Cards | 4.8 per game (Career Average) [^] |
8. Which Player Absences Would Most Affect RSL and Timbers Lineups?
| Most Impactful RSL Absence | Pablo Ruiz (Hamstring injury, major doubt) [^] |
|---|---|
| Most Impactful Portland Absence | Dario Zuparic (Knee injury, out) [^] |
| FotMob Starting Lineup Projections | Both Ruiz and Zuparic predicted to start [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 16, 2026
- Closes: May 16, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMLSGAME-26APR25VANCOL-VAN: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXMLSGAME-26APR25VANCOL-TIE: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXMLSGAME-26APR25VANCOL-COL: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXMLSGAME-26APR25STLSJ-TIE: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXMLSGAME-26APR25STLSJ-STL: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
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