Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Duke secures top basketball recruiting classes for both 2025 and 2026.
- Kansas develops under-ranked talent into future NBA draftees effectively.
- Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd ensures program stability with contract through 2031.
- SEC projects as strongest conference in 2025-26 with many top-40 teams.
- Multiple SEC programs maintain top-tier NIL collectives for talent acquisition.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 16.0% | 8.3% | Market higher by 7.7pp |
| Duke | 11.0% | 9.6% | Duke holds the top composite recruiting class for 2025 and 2026, including multiple top-25 prospects. |
| UConn | 6.4% | 3.6% | Market higher by 2.8pp |
| Florida | 6.1% | 3.4% | Market higher by 2.7pp |
| North Carolina | 4.3% | 2.5% | Market higher by 1.8pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Michigan is the 2026-27 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, and "No" if they are not, as this is a mutually exclusive event. The market opened on April 6, 2026, and will close and expire early once the champion is declared, or by April 27, 2027, at 10:00 AM EDT. Payouts are projected to occur 5 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | $0.16 | $0.86 | 16% |
| Duke | $0.14 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Louisville | $0.09 | $0.97 | 9% |
| Illinois | $0.06 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Arizona | $0.07 | $0.93 | 7% |
| UConn | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Florida | $0.07 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Michigan St. | $0.06 | $0.96 | 6% |
| Kentucky | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| North Carolina | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Houston | $0.06 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Kansas | $0.04 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Arkansas | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Texas | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Gonzaga | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| North Carolina St. | $0.01 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Texas Tech | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Iowa | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Alabama | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| BYU | $0.02 | $1.00 | 3% |
| St. John's | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| USC | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Virginia | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Iowa St. | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Texas A&M | $0.05 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Colorado St. | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Loyola Chicago | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Oklahoma | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Stanford | $0.03 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Virginia Tech | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Missouri | $0.01 | $0.99 | 2% |
| UCLA | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Vanderbilt | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Villanova | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Wisconsin | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Clemson | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Ole Miss | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Providence | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Creighton | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Pittsburgh | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Syracuse | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Xavier | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Purdue | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Indiana | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Miami (FL) | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tennessee | $0.03 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Dayton | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Florida St. | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Baylor | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Auburn | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Saint Mary's | $0.00 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Boston College | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Boise St. | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Butler | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Cincinnati | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Georgetown | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Marquette | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Memphis | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Mississippi State | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Nevada | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Notre Dame | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ohio St. | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Oregon | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Richmond | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| San Diego St. | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| San Francisco | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Seton Hall | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| SMU | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| St. Bonaventure | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| VCU | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Wake Forest | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What Are Duke's Top-Ranked Basketball Recruiting Classes for 2025 and 2026?
| 2025 Recruiting Class Ranking | #1 (247Sports & On3 Composite) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Recruiting Class Ranking | #1 (247Sports & On3 Composite) [^] |
| 2025 Top-25 National Commits | Cayden Boozer (No. 11), Meleek Thomas (No. 12) [^] |
5. Which College Coaches Meet Age and Contract Extension Criteria?
| Tommy Lloyd (Arizona) | 49 years old; contract through 2031 [^] |
|---|---|
| T. J. Otzelberger (Iowa State) | 47 years old; contract through 2032 [^] |
| Corey Gipson (Austin Peay) | 43 years old; contract through 2027-28 [^] |
6. What are the top university NIL collectives in 2024 rankings?
| Ranking Source | On3's 2024 rankings [^] |
|---|---|
| Top Ranked Collective | Texas A&M (12th Man+ Foundation) [^] |
| Ranking Basis | Financial standing and ability to compensate athletes [^] |
7. Which College Basketball Programs Excel at Developing Under-Ranked Talent?
| Programs with 2+ Non-Top-75 Draftees | Kansas, Wake Forest, Colorado (2022-2024 drafts) [^] |
|---|---|
| Kansas 2022 Draftees | Ochai Agbaji (ranked No. 136), Christian Braun (ranked No. 102) [^] |
| Wake Forest 2022 Draftees | Jake LaRavia (ranked No. 258), Alondes Williams (unranked) [^] |
8. Which College Basketball Conference Is Strongest in 2025-26 Projections?
| SEC Teams in Top 40 (2025-26) | 8 teams [^] |
|---|---|
| Big Ten Teams in Top 40 (2025-26) | 7 teams [^] |
| Big 12 Teams in Top 40 (2025-26) | 7 teams [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 27, 2027
- Closes: April 27, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMARMAD-26-UGA: NO (Mar 20, 2026)
- KXMARMAD-26-TCU: NO (Mar 21, 2026)
- KXMARMAD-26-USU: NO (Mar 23, 2026)
- KXMARMAD-26-CBU: NO (Mar 21, 2026)
- KXMARMAD-26-KENN: NO (Mar 20, 2026)
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