What will Rachel Maddow say during her show?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- WHCA dinner shooting aligned with Maddow's democratic norms theme.
- Fox News discussed political rhetoric following the WHCA dinner.
- Upcoming Rachel Maddow Show guests are not publicly known.
- Todd Blanche faces lawsuit over unreleased Jeffrey Epstein files.
- April 28 features critical international events affecting global markets.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | 1.0% | 0.3% | Discussion of political ethics and government accountability is a consistent theme on the show. |
| Kash / Patel | 1.0% | 0.3% | Ongoing legal and political developments often involve discussions about key political figures. |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 1.0% | 0.3% | Energy policy and market trends are common topics in political and economic analysis. |
| Blockade | 1.0% | 0.3% | Current geopolitical events or supply chain disruptions could lead to a discussion of blockades. |
| Manifesto | 1.0% | 0.3% | Political party platforms or significant policy declarations are often analyzed on the program. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Manifesto
📉 April 28, 2026: 85.0pp drop
Price decreased from 86.0% to 1.0%
Outcome: Oil / Gas / Gasoline
📈 April 27, 2026: 58.0pp spike
Price increased from 16.0% to 74.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Rachel Maddow says "Corrupt / Corruption," or a plural or possessive form of it, during her next live show occurring after April 27, 2026, 11:30 AM ET; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Resolution is primarily based on video of the live broadcast, with official transcripts as a secondary source, counting promotional content but not advertisements. The market opens on April 27, 2026, 11:30 AM ET, and will close by May 19, 2026, 10:00 AM ET if the event has not occurred.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballroom | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Kimmel | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Secret Service | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Blockade | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Ceasefire | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Corrupt / Corruption | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Epstein | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Gold Card | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kash / Patel | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Lincoln | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Manifesto | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Powell | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Prediction Market | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Russia / Russian | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What National Story Aligned with Maddow's Democratic Norms Theme?
| Most Relevant National Story | White House correspondents’ dinner shooting [^] |
|---|---|
| The Washington Post Coverage | Front-page, Sunday, April 26, 2026 [^] |
| The New York Times Coverage | Not on Sunday paper, caused backlash [^] |
6. Are Upcoming Rachel Maddow Show Guests Known for Market Impact?
| Upcoming Guest List | Not explicitly listed (web research) [^] |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris Mention | Guest mentioned for "Monday, Sept. 22" but specific year is not provided [^] |
| Rachel Maddow Event | In conversation with Steven J. Ross on "May 5" (year not specified) [^] |
7. How Did Fox News Discuss Political Rhetoric After WHCA Dinner Shooting?
| Key Event Covered | WHCA Dinner shooting (April 27, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Central Discussion Point | Political polarization and toning down rhetoric [^] |
| Specific Concern Highlighted | Threats against President Trump [^] |
8. Is Todd Blanche Sued Over Missing Jeffrey Epstein Files?
| Missing Epstein Pages Alleged | 3 million pages [^] |
|---|---|
| Illegally Withheld Pages Alleged | 200,000 pages [^] |
| Vanished Files Alleged | 37 files [^] |
9. What Major Geopolitical Events Are Expected on April 28, 2026?
| Trump Announcement | Regarding Tehran Proposal ‘Very Soon’ [^] |
|---|---|
| OPEC Membership Shift | UAE to quit OPEC [^] |
| US House Activity | Scheduled activities on April 28, 2026 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 19, 2026
- Closes: May 19, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMADDOWMENTION-26APR20-SHUT: NO (Apr 21, 2026)
- KXMADDOWMENTION-26APR20-RUSS: NO (Apr 21, 2026)
- KXMADDOWMENTION-26APR20-PRIS: YES (Apr 21, 2026)
- KXMADDOWMENTION-26APR20-ORBA: NO (Apr 21, 2026)
- KXMADDOWMENTION-26APR20-OIL: YES (Apr 21, 2026)
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