How many times will Lawrence O'Donnell say Trump during his show?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Lawrence O'Donnell consistently mentions "Trump" frequently on his show. He averages 22 "Trump" mentions when legal analysts are guests. Current news headlines and scheduled events ensure "Trump's" ongoing relevance. Two distinct "Trump"-related headlines emerged from newswires today. * Donald Trump has a public Bible-reading event scheduled for today.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105+ times | 1.0% | 0.9% | Lawrence O'Donnell consistently mentions Trump due to ongoing news and relevant scheduled events. |
| 90+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% | Lawrence O'Donnell consistently mentions Trump due to ongoing news and relevant scheduled events. |
| 95+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% | Lawrence O'Donnell consistently mentions Trump due to ongoing news and relevant scheduled events. |
| 100+ times | 1.0% | 0.9% | Lawrence O'Donnell consistently mentions Trump due to ongoing news and relevant scheduled events. |
| 80+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% | Lawrence O'Donnell consistently mentions Trump due to ongoing news and relevant scheduled events. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 45+ times
📈 April 22, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 79.0% to 99.0%
Outcome: 40+ times
📉 April 21, 2026: 76.0pp drop
Price decreased from 89.0% to 13.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Lawrence O'Donnell says "Trump" 95 or more times during the next live "The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell" show after April 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Resolution is primarily based on video of the broadcast, backed by transcripts, counting exact, plural, or possessive forms of "Trump," including promotional content but excluding advertisements. The market will close after the event occurs or by April 25, 2026, 10:00 AM EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 40+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 45+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 50+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 55+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 60+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 65+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 70+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 75+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 80+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 85+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 90+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 95+ times | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| 100+ times | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 105+ times | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion indicates that Lawrence O'Donnell likely mentioned "Trump" between 95 and 99 times. While the market shows a 99% probability for 95+ mentions, several traders who bet on 100+ or 105+ mentions are realizing losses, with one user explicitly stating the count did not go over 100. This suggests a consensus that the "Yes" outcome for 95+ times was met, but the higher thresholds were not.
5. What Trump-Related Headlines Emerged and Their Publication Times?
| AP News Headline | Trump's approval on economy falls, new poll shows (AP) [^] |
|---|---|
| Reuters News Headline | Trump says he has no plans to fire Fed's Powell; market jumps (Reuters) [^] |
| Article Publication Times | Not provided (available sources) [^] |
6. What Is Lawrence O'Donnell's 'Trump' Mention Count With Legal Analysts?
| Average Trump mentions (Legal Analysts) | 22 per episode (May 17, 2022 [^], April 29, 2022 [^]) |
|---|---|
| May 17, 2022 Episode Trump Mentions | 21 (Neal Katyal, Elie Honig, Joyce Vance guests) [^] |
| April 29, 2022 Episode Trump Mentions | 23 (Neal Katyal, Joyce Vance, Andrew Weissmann guests) [^] |
7. Can Trump Mentions Trend Be Calculated for O'Donnell, Maddow, Hayes?
| Trend Analysis Data Availability | Not available for 'Trump' mentions week-over-week [^] |
|---|---|
| Lawrence O'Donnell Trump Coverage | Examples include 'Trump is doing a very good job...' and 'Trump's profane and perverse Iran social' [^] |
| Rachel Maddow Trump Coverage | Examples include 'Rachel Maddow warns U.S. is ‘breaking’...' and 'Donald Trump's increasingly wild and desperate behavior' [^] |
8. Can Chris Hayes' Lead Story Predict Lawrence O'Donnell's Trump Mentions?
| Lead Story Data Required | Topics for 'All In with Chris Hayes' (20 episodes) [^] |
|---|---|
| Trump Mention Data Required | Counts for 'The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell' (20 episodes) [^] |
| Correlation Analysis Result | Cannot be determined without specific data [^]. |
9. What are Donald Trump's April 22, 2026, afternoon events?
| Primary Public Event | Bible-reading event with supporters (April 22, 2026 [^]) |
|---|---|
| Event Start Time | 2:00 PM ET (April 22, 2026 [^]) |
| Court Rulings/Filings | None scheduled to conclude after 12 PM ET (April 22, 2026 [^]) |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 25, 2026
- Closes: April 25, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXLASTWORDCOUNT-LAWR26APR15-95: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDCOUNT-LAWR26APR15-90: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDCOUNT-LAWR26APR15-85: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDCOUNT-LAWR26APR15-80: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDCOUNT-LAWR26APR15-75: YES (Apr 16, 2026)
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