What will Palantir say during their next earnings call?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Only one government contract exceeding $50 million was identified recently.
- US officials confirm AI use for target identification in Iran conflicts.
- Alex Karp emphasizes "The Technological Republic" in recent public interviews.
- Research found no specific analyst focus on international versus domestic growth.
- Market probability saw a 23-point spike on April 28, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue guidance | 69.0% | 68.9% | Companies consistently provide revenue guidance during earnings calls to inform investors. |
| Iran / Iranian | 84.0% | 78.9% | Geopolitical events affecting national security are often discussed due to government contracts. |
| Stellantis | 63.0% | 60.2% | Palantir's significant partnership with Stellantis makes it a relevant topic for updates. |
| Nvidia | 58.0% | 46.4% | Nvidia's leadership in AI makes its impact on Palantir's offerings a relevant discussion point. |
| USDA | 50.0% | 47.1% | Palantir's substantial contract with the USDA is a key growth driver. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 28, 2026: 23.0pp spike
Price increased from 46.0% to 69.0%
Outcome: Revenue guidance
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if "USDA" (including its plural or possessive forms, but no other grammatical/tense inflections) is spoken by any Palantir Technologies Inc. representative during their next earnings call, including the Q&A; otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Resolution is primarily based on video of the earnings call, with transcripts used if video is inconclusive, and outcome verified from Palantir's investor relations. The market opened April 27, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT, closing early if the event occurs, or by September 30, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT if it doesn't, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foundry | $0.93 | $0.13 | 93% |
| International | $0.90 | $0.13 | 87% |
| Iran / Iranian | $0.88 | $0.22 | 84% |
| Warp Speed | $0.90 | $0.18 | 81% |
| Partnership | $0.83 | $0.24 | 75% |
| Revenue guidance | $0.75 | $0.34 | 69% |
| Israel | $0.76 | $0.35 | 64% |
| Stellantis | $0.61 | $0.52 | 63% |
| Nvidia | $0.61 | $0.51 | 58% |
| USDA | $0.62 | $0.52 | 50% |
| Automotive | $0.31 | $0.83 | 31% |
| Commercial Growth | $0.29 | $0.76 | 29% |
| Gotham Platform | $0.17 | $0.89 | 24% |
| Polymarket | $0.34 | $0.77 | 22% |
| Government Contract | $0.17 | $0.87 | 19% |
| Healthcare | $0.66 | $0.35 | 0% |
| Lethal | $0.87 | $0.23 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Large Palantir Contracts Exceed $50 Million?
| Largest Government Contract | $300 million with U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) (April 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Automotive Sector Large Contracts | No specific contracts valued over $50 million identified (March 2026) [^] |
| Healthcare Sector Large Contracts | No specific contracts valued over $50 million identified (February 2026) [^] |
6. What Was Analyst Focus on Palantir's International vs. Domestic Growth?
| Latest Earnings Call | Q4 2025 (February 2, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Prior Earnings Call | Q3 2025 (November 4, 2025) [^] |
| Q1 2025 Revenue Increase | 39% [^] |
7. What Is Palantir's AI Role in Iran-Related Defense Contracts?
| AI Identified Targets | 1,000 targets in Iran strikes [^] |
|---|---|
| Pentagon AI Contract | $1.3 billion [^] |
| DoD AI Contract Extension | $2.5 billion [^] |
8. Is Operation Warp Speed's Data Infrastructure Praised for Current Crises?
| OWS Data Infrastructure Commendation | No explicit retrospective praise or call for similar platform for current health crises (Past 6 months) [^] |
|---|---|
| OWS General Operational Praise | Offers a roadmap for improving efficiency of bench to bedside medical advances [^] |
| Current Data Modernization Focus | HHS progress on TEFCA and CDC's One CDC Data Platform [^] |
9. What New Philosophical Frameworks Does Alex Karp Emphasize?
| Key Philosophical Framework | The Technological Republic, outlined in a 22-point manifesto [^] |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth Strategy | Focus on "inexplicable growth in revenue" not necessarily tied to proportional customer growth [^] |
| AI Workforce Impact | Identifies "two types" of individuals who will survive and thrive in an AI-dominated world [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 30, 2026
- Closes: September 30, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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